sustainable electric power scott norr, p.e. ee 1001 september 22, 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Sustainable Electric Power
Scott Norr, P.E.
EE 1001
September 22, 2015
Electric Power Delivery and Consumption Getting More
Complex• More Environmental Issues - SUSTAINABILITY• Greater Population Density• Larger Variety of Sources, Delivery Methods and
Loads• Aging Infrastructure Undergoing Life Extension• New Technology Blended with Old – Grid is Already
Pretty Smart
ELECTRIC DEMAND
Source: Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (www.eia.gov)
Demand growing 0.9% per year in U.S.
World Energy Consumption
505 QuadIn 2008
Source: Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (www.eia.gov)
US – 5% of populationusing 20% of world resources
Electric Grid – EfficiencyGeneration is the Weak Link
Courtesy of Tom FergusonLighting: 100 Lumps IN, 1 Lump OUT???
Electric Generation Changing to Meet Demand
• Large, Centralized Plants (Rarely, now)
• Small, Modular, Distributed Plants
• Also, Siting Renewable Generation where it makes Sense (and Profit)
Large Plants• Environmental Issues
• Fossil Fuels
• Location/Siting
• Outlet Transmission
HydroElectric No Longer “Clean Energy”3 Gorges Dam –
China – 20,000 MegaWatts
Hoover Dam – US – 2,000 MegaWatts
Eoearth.org
Large Plants (Cont.)
• We’ll See New Ideas for Big Plants:– Coal is dirty – so … “Clean Coal”!– Wind and Solar are expensive and intermittent:
Large-scale and Storage Needed– Geothermal has limited application: Low-Temp– Biomass puts pressure on agriculture: Cellulose– Nuclear is Tricky: Gen IV Nuclear?
Clean Coal 2% Growth in all Coal Gen, 345 GW in 2012 (Natural Gas is too cheap!!)
• Coal Gasification (Combined Cycle) - Low Emmissions• Potential for Carbon Sequestration
WIND 25% growth, 60 GW in 2012• Wind Generators currently very popular
(Several Thousand MWs in Upper Midwest
• More and more Cost Effective
(4 - 5 Cents/KWH)
• Not a Cure-All - never
windy when you need it most
• Difficult to Dispatch
Source: Town of Hendricks, MN
Solar Electricity 80% growth, 11 GW in 2012
• Photvoltaics– Electricity Directly from Sunlight– Low Conversion efficiency– Fairly High Cost
• Solar Potential:– US uses 100 Quad of Energy
each year– 38,200 Quad of Solar Energy
hits the lower 48 each year
• BUT ONLY WHEN THE SUN SHINES …
New Solar Ideas:• 3-D PhotoVoltaic Cells
– New Breakthroughs in Nano-Materials greatly increase the effective surface area of a Solar Cell and its ability to catch reflected light
– Theoretically 50%-70% efficient– Very High Cost
• Solar Concentrators– Simple Idea used in Space
– Collect More Sunlight for your Existing Cells
- Combine Solar Electric AND Solar Thermal• Graphene??
Current Photovoltaic Technologies
www.nrel.gov
Solar Flare
Fire safety and Electric Safety will lead to new regulations for Solar Panels
greentechmedia.com
Houston, We Have a Storage Problem:
Courtesy of Tom Ferguson
Renewables are not “Dispatchable”
If we couldStore energywhen availablefor use when it’s not….
Energy Storage Technology:We’re not ready yet
Source: Haresh Kamath, EPRI PEAC
Tesla Power Wall
92% “DC Efficiency”, Elon? What about AC?
92% under ideal duty for a NEW battery
Drops off quickly for irregular charge/ discharge profile
Drops off to 80% with age
Another 3-5% loss to make AC (Inverter losses)
Valøenaa, et. al. – “THE EFFECT OF PHEV AND HEV DUTY CYCLES ON BATTERY AND BATTERY PACK PERFORMANCE
Tesla Economics
Tesla adds about $0.10 per kWh toany installation (such as solar or wind)
At present in MN, Net Metering Cost Recovery makes this unattractive
Future changes to rates (real-time price, PP Tariffs) could change the economics drastically!
Geothermal 5% Growth, 3 GW in 2010
• Extract Hot Water from the Earth
• Use the Hot Water (low temp) or Flash to Steam (high temp)
• 11 GW installed capacity worldwide (2010)
• Capacity growing at 5% worldwide (5yr Avg)
• Excellent Idea for Home Use – Ground Source Heat Pumps
Binary-Cycle Plant (Geothermal)
Nuclear ….Is It BACK? 0% growth, 100 GW in 2012
• Updated LWR Designs are being permitted• March 11, 2011 – Earthquake in Japan, leading to
nuclear reactor meltdown• Next Generation Nuclear Reactors (Gen IV)
– Modular (example: 25 MW Modules), add more modules to make a bigger plant
– Fuel Flexible – Uranium, Thorium (More abundant resource)
– A Promising Design: Pebble-Bed Modular Reactor
• Temperature moderated with Helium or Nitrogen
• Fuel encased in pebbles – ‘safe’, easy to handle
Pebble-Bed Reactor
Source:
Black and Veatch
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011 25
Incremental Transmission CostsVariable Costs,Including FuelFixedCosts
CapitalCosts
2015 2030
Levelized Electricity Costs for New Plants,2015 and 2030
DEMAND SIDE
• Conservation Through:
Market Pricing
Efficient Products
IBM Predicts the Future of Electric Energy Use
www.ibm.com: “The future of energy and utilities”
Market Pricing
• Utilities MUST and will adapt (slowly!) to the changing market:
- Energy Prices becoming De-Regulated
- Shop around for a better provider
- Time of Day Rates
- New Equipment to Automate Pricing:
- Smart Meters
- Smart Appliances
Minnesota PowerTime-of-Day Rate
(Pilot Program)On-peak: + 1.5 cents
Off-peak: - 3 cents
Critical Peak: + 77 cents
Smart Meters
• Talks to Electric Company • Talks to Consumer About
Hourly Prices and Hourly Consumption
• Tells Appliances what current Price is
• Shops Around for a Better Rate?
Source: elster.com and en.wikipedia.org
Efficient Products• Smart Appliances run
only when energy is cheapest, talk to each other and to the Electric Utility
• Passive Solar Thermal Designs and Devices
• Energy Efficient Home Designs and Ground-Source Heat Pumps
Sustainability
• More than Conservation
• More than Smart Energy Use
• Being Responsible with ALL resources and Preserving Them for the Future
• “7th Generation” Concept
Sustainability at UMD
umdsustain.wp.d.umn.edu
CONCLUSIONSNew Social Pressures and New Technologies are
both changing and complicating the way we convert and use energy
In a World with 7.3 Billion People (9 Billion by 2030), We MUST become more mindful of How and Why We Use Energy.
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf)
WEB References• National Renewable Energy Labs
– http://www.nrel.gov/
• Electric Power Research Institute– http://www.epri.com/
• US Dept. of Energy– http://www.energy.gov/
• Energy Information Association– http://www.eia.gov/