Sustainable Energy in the GCC: Myths and Realities

Yasser Al-Saleh, Ph.D.INSEAD Innovation & Policy Initiative

Abu Dhabi Campus

- Personal and Professional Background.

-INSEAD Innovation & Policy Initiative, was set up in 2010 on the Abu Dhabi campus in order to carry out innovation policy related work; namely, problem-orientated policy research, outreach activities and the development of learning materials.

Introductions

Over the next 60 minutes…

1. The need for sustainable energy will be highlighted.

2. We will be debunking common fallacies about sustainable energy.

3. There will be a quick overview of flagship sustainable energy developments in the region.

4. We shall consider key routes to achieving a sustainable energy future.

5. The presentation will conclude with wrapping up messages.

6. A Quiz…

Do we need sustainable energy?

Here comes the bad news…

We are using up our natural resources faster than the planet can replenish them

• The population of the world has more than doubled in the last 60 years.

• Many developing nations are experiencing rapid economic growth.

• Crude oil is essentially the buried product of several hundred million years of solar energy, photosynthesis and geological pressure – now buried beneath the ground or sea.

The emission of CO2 and other GHGs iscausing global warming

• The vast majority of the scientists around the world believe that anthropogenic GHG are raising the global temperature.

• The debate appears to no longer be about whether global warming is happening or not, but rather how quickly it is happening.

In the GCC Region

• We depend, almost entirely, on oil and gas for electricity generation and fresh water production.

• The GCC nations themselves are amongst the fastest growing energy consumers.

• Hydrocarbons: a blessing or a curse…. Dutch Disease?

Thus, for various alarming reasons, the need for sustainability is genuine.

Before beginning to address these critical issues, we have to debunk five common fallacies about sustainable energy….

Fallacy 1: We need to use renewable energy technologies because oil is running out soon.

Reality

“Just as the Stone Age did not end for lack of stones, the Oil Age will not end for lack of oil”

Former Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Yamani

Fallacy 2: Renewable energy has the potential to replace the need for oil altogether.

Reality

“We have allowed oil to become vital to virtually everything we do. 90% of all our transportation, whether by land, air, or sea, is fuelled by oil. 95% of all goods in shops involve the use of oil. 95% of all our food products require oil use. Just to farm a single cow and deliver it to market requires six barrels of oil, enough to drive a car from New York to Los Angeles”

Leggett, J. (2005). The empty tank. London: Random House Publishing Group.

Fallacy 3: Our scientists will soon come up with a ‘silver-bullet’ energy source.

Just because some junior scientists have completed some successful experiments - that does not mean that it is scalable into a universal source of reliable energy.

CAVEAT: if we focus our efforts onto solving our problems, we will find a solution. However, if we keep throwing different problems into the pot, we run the risk of jeopardising meaningful technological advancement.

Reality

Fallacy 4: 100% renewable electricity is a foreseeable reality.

In addition to transmission and distribution requirements, energy storage is still an immense hurdle to be tackled.

In the absence of abundant hydro back-up, we still need fossil fuels to cover on windless nights at a high environmental price!

Reality

Fallacy 5: The GCC nations are the biggest emitters of CO2 in the world.

RealityRank Country % of Global

CO2 Emission

1 China 23.3%

2 USA 18.1%

3 India 5.8%

4 Russia 5.7%

5 Japan 4.0%

6 Germany 2.6%

7 Canada 1.8%

8 Iran 1.8%

9 UK 1.7%

10 S. Korea 1.7%

KSA ranked 14th

UAE ranked 32nd

Source: UN Statistics Division

Per capita rankings:

Rank Country CO2

(Mt./capita)

1 Qatar 53.5

2 Trinidad and Tobago

37.3

3 UAE 34.6

4 Netherlands Antilles

31.9

5 Bahrain 29.1

6 Brunei 27.1

7 Kuwait 26.3

8 Luxembourg 21.9

9 Aruba 21.7

10 KSA 18.1

Oman ranked 13th

China ranked 78th

India ranked 145th

Source: UN Statistics Division

Misleading information about energy can easily lead to misinterpretations and false assumptions about the reality of sustainability…

Several flagship sustainable energy developments are underway in the region

…The underlying aim of these green initiatives is to change conventional hydrocarbon-centric perceptions about the GCC region.

Moving forward…

• Our problem is that we are viewing energy issues from the wrong angle.

• We need to move away from assuming that we should supply enough energy to satisfy demand, rather we should be informing users of ways to rationalise demand.

TIP: Energy Efficiency and Renewables are

two sides of the same coin.

Don’t …

• Focus on renewable energy as the sole route to a sustainable energy future.

• Focus on energy supply and forget about demand.

• Put all your eggs in one basket.

• Replicate the experiences and policy targets of other countries. The needs, challenges and local context of countries vary.

Quiz..