Synthesis of Climate Model Downscaling Products for the Southeast U.S.

Adrienne WoottenQED Workshop

8/15/2013

“the observations have problems, the global climate models are unreliable, the downscaling is unpredictable, and we have no idea which emissions scenarios to use, but go out and make decisions with climate projections!”

But I still need to make decisions!

Motivation

• Need data → increasing use → need to understand differences (practitioner’s dilemma)– What datasets provide– Which datasets are more accurate– Climate / Ecology Connections

• Focus: comparing and evaluating differences between available downscaled climate change products

Some Specifics

• Considering the Southeast • Specific to the needs of ecologists– Not just about which dataset is better– Guidance on which datasets to use and what to

look for in others. • Not a one time deal – keep engagement going

Project Structure

• Pick datasets – Team includes climate scientists and ecologists– Steering committee of researchers and decision

makers• Metadata comparison• Workshop 5/16 – 5/17/2013– Climatologists, ecologists, decision makers– Learn from each other, how to tackle evaluation

• Initial evaluation – Summer 2013

About the Workshop

Regional Climate Variation and Change for Terrestrial Ecosystems Workshop • Thoughts on what metadata is important• Common metrics important to ecologists• Multiple levels– Researchers– Decision makers

• Informed evaluation

Lessons Learned

Variables of interest • Temperature• Precipitation• Winds• Evapotranspiration• Measures of Drought

• Metrics – measures of variability, central tendency, extremes– Frequency, intensity– Space / time location

• Thresholds – lots of needs, depending on species, habitat, decision.

• Variables / Metrics were given but…

Lessons Learned

Instead of individual thresholds – goodness of fit!

Lessons Learned

Two Important Notes• Data evaluation

should be based on the decisions / study.

• Preference for access to experts not access to numbers.

Two Other things

• Desire for a finer resolution (1km)– Is it meaningful?– Extra analyses in the mountains (topoclimatic

models)• Jargon be Gone!

As for the rest…

• USGS Technical Report coming in Fall 2013

• More workshops• Potential for virtual

collaboration and learning?

Questions?Project Team• Adrienne Wootten (NCSU)• Ryan Boyles (NCSU)• Fred Semazzi (NCSU)• Kara Smith (NCSU)• Vasu Misra (FSU COAPS)• Lydia Stefanova (FSU COAPS)• Adam Terando (SECSC)• Thomas Smith (USGS)• David Blodgett (USGS)

Acknowledgements:• John Tirpak (GCPOLCC)• Steve Traxler (PFLCC)• Rua Mordecai (SALCC)• Laura Thompson (NCCWSC)• Laurie Rounds (NOAA)• Jayantha Obeysekera (SFWMD)

• Jared Bowden (UNCIE)• Tanya Otte (USEPA)