system operations report - pjm

PJM©2019www.pjm.com | Public

System Operations Report

Hong Chen

Senior Lead Engineer, Markets Coordination

MC Webinar

October 30, 2019


Load Forecasting Error (Achieved 80% of the Time)www.pjm.com

3.10

1.98

1.90

2.58

1.98

2.04

1.69

2.00

2.14

3.20

2.09

3.14

2.90

1.57

1.88

1.66

1.84

2.08

2.44

1.49

1.70

1.28

1.30

1.64

1.36

1.46

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Fore

cast

Err

or (

Abso

lute

%)

On-Peak

Off-Peak

Average

3% Line

20192018


PJM RTO Load Forecasting Analysis

Average RTO load forecast error performance for September was

2.18%, within the goal of 3%.

www.pjm.com


Peak Load Forecasting Error Outlier Dayswww.pjm.com

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0


Fore

cast

Err

or (

Abso

lute

%)

20192018

05/17/19

06/20/19

09/09/19

10/30/18

09/10/18

11/09/18

12/23/18 01/31/19

02/02/1903/13/19

04/21/19

07/18/19

08/23/19


Peak Load Average Forecast Error by Zonewww.pjm.com

RTO MIDATL AP CE AEP DAY DUQ DOM ATSI DEOK EKPC

2.3% 4.6% 3.8% 2.5% 2.9%2019 Q3 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% 4.0%2019 Q2 1.5% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6%

3.2% 3.1%3.7%

1.9% 1.6% 1.7% 2.2% 1.5%2.2% 3.2% 2.9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.8%

2019 Q1 1.2% 1.6% 2.5% 1.8%1.5% 2.0%

2018 Q3 1.6%3.3%

2.1% 3.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.7%2018 Q4 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.2%

2.5% 2.6% 3.5%2018 Q2 1.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.9% 3.7%

2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 2.8% 1.3%2.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 3.4%

2018 Q1 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5%

2017 Q3 1.9%2017 Q4 1.1% 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5%

2.2%

3.5%2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5%3.6%

2.1% 2.3%2.4% 2.3%

3.6%

Quarter2017 Q1 1.0% 1.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8%

2.2% 4.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 4.8%2.8% 2.7% 3.0%

2.0% 3.7%2017 Q2 1.3% 1.8% 2.2%

2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 1.4%

1.7% 3.8%

2.3% 3.5%

3.2%


Monthly BAAL Performance Score

PJM’s BAAL performance has exceeded the goal of 99% for each month in 2019.

www.pjm.com

99.899.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.8

99.9 99.9 99.8 99.9 99.9

30 30

15 15

25

13

41 43

2522

35 35

24

88

46

30 29

63

36

66

94

5146

87

61

47

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

96

97

98

99

100


Excu

rsio

ns an

d Mi

nute

s

Oper

atio

ns M

etric

(%)

Operations Metric (%)

Excursions Outside Limits

Minutes Outside Limits

2018 2019


• Two spinning events in the month of September

• Three reserve sharing events with the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC)

• The following Emergency Procedures occurred in September:

– 32 Post-Contingency Local Load Relief Warnings (PCLLRW)

– 2 Hot Weather Alerts

– 4 Shortage Cases Approved

Operational Summarywww.pjm.com


RTO Generation Outage Rate - Monthly

The 13-month average forced outage rate is 3.94% or 7,961 MW.

The 13-month average total outage rate is 15.18% or 30,813 MW.

www.pjm.com

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

9/1/2018 11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019 5/1/2019 7/1/2019 9/1/2019

Forced Outage Average (%)Total Outage Average (%)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

9/1/2018 11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019 5/1/2019 7/1/2019 9/1/2019

Forced Outage Average (MW)Total Outage Average (MW)


2018-2019 Planned Emergency,

Unplanned, and Total Outages by Ticket

Note: “Unplanned Outages" include tripped facilities. One tripping event may involve multiple facilities.

www.pjm.com

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Num

ber o

f Out

age

Tick

ets

Total

Unplanned (greater than 2 hrs)

Planned Emergency


PCLLRW Count Vs. Peak Load – Daily Values For 3 Monthswww.pjm.com

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019

PCLL

RW C

ount

MW (T

hous

ands

)

RTO Peak LoadPCLLRW Count


Spin Response

*Tier 2 Response is equal to Tier 2 Assigned for events less than ten minutes

www.pjm.com

Event Date Start Time End Time Duration Region Tier 1 Estimate (MW) Tier 1 Response (MW)

1 09/03/19 09:39 09:48 00:09 MAD 979.9 598.1

2 09/23/19 12:07 12:18 00:11 RTO 1485.1 1212.1

Event Date Start Time End Time Duration Region Tier 2 Assigned (MW) Tier 2 Response (MW) Tier 2 Penalty (MW)

1 09/03/19 09:39 09:48 00:09 MAD 227.5 227.5 0

2 09/23/19 12:07 12:18 00:11 RTO 651.6 496.1 155.5


Perfect Dispatch – Performancewww.pjm.com

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2019 Perfect Dispatch Performance - September 2019

2019 Daily Performance

2019 YTD Performance




Perfect Dispatch – Performancewww.pjm.com

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

$24

$28

$32

2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cum

ulat

ive P

rodu

ctio

n Co

st S

avin

gs ($

in M

illion

s)

Mont

hly

Prod

uctio

n Co

st S

avin

gs ($

in M

illion

s)

Month/Year

Perfect Dispatch Estimated Production Cost Savings Through September 2019

Monthly Production Cost Savings

Cumulative Production Cost Savings


Perfect Dispatch Analysis

The year-to-date Perfect Dispatch performance score through

September 2019 is 90.73%.

The estimated cumulative production cost savings through September

2019 is over $1.5 billion with over $62 million in savings in 2019.

www.pjm.com


Appendix

www.pjm.com


Peak Load Average Forecast Error by Zonewww.pjm.com

0

1

2

3

4

5

RTO MIDATL AP CE AEP DAY DUQ DOM ATSI DEOK EKPC

Fore

cast

Err

or (

Abso

lute

%)

20192017

2017 Q12017 Q22017 Q3

2019 Q22019 Q3

2017 Q42018 Q12018 Q22018 Q32018 Q42019 Q1


Goal Measurement: Balancing Authority ACE Limit (BAAL)

• The purpose of the new BAAL standard is to maintain interconnection frequency within a predefined frequency profile under all conditions (normal and abnormal), to prevent frequency-related instability, unplanned tripping of load or generation, or uncontrolled separation or cascading outages that adversely impact the reliability of the interconnection. NERC requires each balancing authority demonstrate real-time monitoring of ACE and interconnection frequency against associated limits and shall balance its resources and demands in real time so that its Reporting ACE does not exceed the BAAL (BAALLOW or BAALHIGH) for a continuous time period greater than 30 minutes for each event.

• PJM directly measures the total number of BAAL excursions in minutes compared to the total number of minutes within a month. PJM has set a target value for this performance goal at 99% on a daily and monthly basis. In addition, current NERC rules limit the recovery period to no more than 30 minutes for a single event.

Balancing Authority ACE Limit - Performance Measurewww.pjm.com


RTO Generation Outage Rate - Dailywww.pjm.com

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

9/1/2018 11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019 5/1/2019 7/1/2019 9/1/2019

FORCED OUTAGE RATE (%)TOTAL OUTAGE RATE (%)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

9/1/2018 11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019 5/1/2019 7/1/2019 9/1/2019

FORCED OUTAGE RATE (MW)TOTAL OUTAGE RATE (MW)

The 13-month average forced outage rate is 3.94% or 7,961 MW.

The 13-month average total outage rate is 15.18% or 30,813 MW.


PCLLRW Count Vs. Peak Load – Daily Values For 13 Monthswww.pjm.com

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

09/01/18 11/01/18 01/01/19 03/01/19 05/01/19 07/01/19 09/01/19

PCLL

RW C

ount

MW (T

hous

ands

)

RTO Peak LoadPCLLRW Count


Perfect Dispatch refers to the hypothetical least production cost commitment and Dispatch, achievable only if all system conditions (load

forecast, unit availability / performance, interchange, transmission outages, etc.) were known and controllable in advance. While being

hypothetical and not achievable in reality, this is useful as a baseline for performance measurement.

The Perfect Dispatch performance goal is designed to measure how well PJM commits combustion turbines (CTs) in real time operations

compared to a calculated optimal CT commitment profile.

The Perfect Dispatch performance measure is calculated as 100% x (The accumulative year-to-date optimal CT production cost in

Perfect Dispatch / The accumulative year-to-date actual real-time CT production cost).

The Perfect Dispatch performance goal was removed as a goal beginning in 2015. Currently Perfect Dispatch does not have a

performance goal, but the metric will continue to be tracked.

The cumulative Estimated Production Cost Savings helps to demonstrate the savings that result from PJM’s process changes since the

inception of the Perfect Dispatch analysis in 2008. This estimate is determined by comparing the Perfect Dispatch performance for all

resources to benchmarks set at the beginning of the Perfect Dispatch analysis. A benchmark of 98.18% is used for comparison of the

2019 metric which is 98.93% through the end of September 2019.

Perfect Dispatch – Performance Measurewww.pjm.com

system operations report - pjm

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