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TechMUNC 2020: Food and Agriculture (FAO) Report:

The Effect of Climate Change on Food Supply

Meet Your Dais Team! Zainab Qutub

My name is Zainab Qutub and I’m a sophomore at Brooklyn Tech, this is my second year in MUN. I also enjoy reading, biking, and embroidery. I am looking forward to chairing this FAO committee, as climate change is an extremely important issue to me. I feel that living in NYC everyone should be aware of the climate crisis because it will affect us in the near future. I am hoping to see you guys bring thorough and creative ideas to the debate. Emily Anghad

My name is Emily Anghad, and I am excited to be your director during this FAO committee! I am a junior at Brooklyn Tech, and this is my second year in Model U.N. My hobbies include binge-watching TV shows, reading, and science research. As this is currently an especially important issue, I look forward to the lively and comprehensive discussions we will have in committee! Our future is directly impacted by this, and I hope you all give your best effort and have fun when forming blocs and devising resolutions!

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Report

The Effect of Climate Change on Food Supply

Introduction Through burning an increasing amount of fossil fuels, humans have had a negative

impact on the climate. Burning fossil fuels releases an excess of greenhouse gases which trap heat from the sun in our atmosphere. This causes a global increase in temperature and has negative impacts on humans and the environment.1 One such negative impact is that warmer temperatures can harm food supply, extreme weather conditions caused by climate change disrupt the supply of food in many places and rising temperatures often lower crop yields. According to a United Nations report (UN) while there is still time to address this issue, action must be taken now, or there could be disastrous consequences.2

While the human population is expected to increase exponentially, the global food supply is expected to decline, resulting in mass hunger and malnutrition. The 2019 United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Climate Change and Land, details that climate change has intensified land degradation due to an increase in extreme weather events, including but not limited to increased rainfall intensity, flooding, and drought frequency. Particularly, Asia and Africa are predicted to have an increase in desertification, while North America, South America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and central Asia are all expected to have an increase in wildfires.3

The implications are detrimental and include limited food and water supplies as well as increased cases of respiratory and water-and food-borne illnesses. 4

According to the UN Development Program, large scale climate action could result in 26 trillion USD of economic benefits, while climate inaction would have large economic and social costs. Between 1998 and 2017 1.3 million people were killed by geophysical disasters, the majority of which were linked to climate change.5

Despite this, many countries have not created effective policies to prevent climate change, and continue to contribute negatively to the environment. This has become a heatedly debated topic as some countries feel that is is best to maximize economic benefit in the present, and others feel it is more important to ensure long term prosperity. 6 7

History Climate change has occurred gradually over the course of the Earth’s history, for the

past 100 years the Earth has warmed at a much faster pace than ever recorded. This is largely due to rapid industrialization, increased burning of fossil fuels, and deforestation, all of which began in the mid-19th century. During this time, the world, particularly the West, experienced an Industrial Revolution, in which the agrarian economies of many nations shifted to

manufacturing. This era was characterized by an increase in population as well as the use of factories powered by fossil fuels, which emitt great amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, leading to the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is the warming of Earth’s lower atmosphere due to heat-trapping gases, known as greenhouse gases.8

Since the mid-19th century, the amount of carbon dioxide, a primary greenhouse gas, in the atmosphere has increased exponentially. This phenomenon has led to increases in Earth’s temperatures by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius). This warming is referred to as global warming and has many negative impacts on the Earth, such as rising sea levels, stronger flooding, droughts, shifting seasons, and an overall higher likelihood of natural disasters 9 10

. The increased industrialization of the 20th century has also led to an increased strain on

the food chain. As more people moved to cities, the human population became concentrated in small areas that produced little agriculture, in response to this, humans created ways to transport food from the place of production to the place of need.11 The global food supply chain affects different regions differently. For example, Africa has the highest prevalence of undernourishment, while North America and Europe have the lowest.12

This is caused by both food scarcity and unequal distribution of food. There is not enough food currently produced to feed the 7.5 billion people on the planet as well as livestock. With the human population expected to reach 9.7 billion people by the middle of this century and the expected 2 to 6 percent decrease in crop yields every 10 years, this food scarcity is predicted to worsen. Of the 1.3 billion tons of food produced each year, one third is wasted, this wasted food is estimated to be worth $680 billion USD.13

Further, the impact of the food currently grown is not maximized as more than one third of it is fed to livestock, which consume more food than they produce.14 While the 2nd of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), outlined in the Paris Agreement, aims to eradicate hunger by 2030, the FAO currently claims that progress is too slow, and the number of undernourished people is increasing globally.12 15

In August of 2019, the IPCC published a report, written by climate experts in over 50 countries, stated that climate change could trigger multiple food crises in different regions at the same time. According to the report, if the average global temperature rises 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, which the panel has predicted will happen by the end of the 21st century, there will be a large threat to the global food supply.16

The extreme weather events caused by climate change are the main factor that affects our food supply, as heavy rainfall and extreme heat waves affect the growing seasons of many crops. These effects are already beginning to show, in 2019 a heat wave in Europe fueled a drought in France, which lowered the crop yields that Europe is largely dependent on. In the Midwest of the United States, heavy rain and floods prevented the planting of corn and soybeans.13

In order to prevent this, the report called for action on an extensive scale.

Climate change is expected to have an immense detrimental effect on global food supplies. Approximately 25 percent of Earth’s land, is prone to land degradation, the areas that are more likely to be affected by this include, but not limited to, low-lying coastal areas, river

deltas, and dryland, specifically South and East Asia, the Circum-Sahara region, and the Middle East. Agricultural fields are predicted to experience soil erosion rates that are 10-100 times higher than soil formation rates.3

Additionally, the effects of climate change on agricultural production in one area can have a global impact. Because the majority of the Earth’s cereal crops come from less than one third of its cropland, shifting climate in one area affects the entire global food supply chain. This has only recently become true, over the past few decades food global food supply has become increasingly reliant on trade. This has resulted in a vulnerability that is amplified by climate change. As seasons shift across the globe and the frequency of natural disasters increases, the likelihood of breadbasket failure in regions that are vital to global food supply rises.17

During the 1980s, large increases in the global temperature were seen and acknowledged; as a result the IPCC was created by the UN, its purpose is to provide research on climate change and its impacts. The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, was the first global agreement to fight climate change. In 2015, many world leaders signed the Paris Agreement which outlined 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the 13th SDG called for climate action however, progress towards these SDGs has been slow.9

As outlined by the 13th SDG, climate action needs to be coordinated on a global scale as climate change is a problem that affects human irrespective of national borders insure climate justice.8

The majority of greenhouse gases are emitted by developed countries while the effects of climate change are more extreme in developing and under-developed countries, the Paris Agreement stated that developed countries must urgently move towards low-carbon economies while allowing under-developed and developing countries access to technology and resources that would allow them to shift to low-carbon economies which would bring them out of poverty.18

In the UN Climate Conference in 2009, Britain and developing countries were hoping for large scale climate action. Developing countries often support climate action as they are the ones to feel the effects of climate change the strongest.19

One major contributor to climate inaction is climate change denial. Many world leaders and influential individuals believe that there is little evidence to prove that humans are causing rapid climate change or that climate science is a hoax. The United States, for example, pulled out of the Kyoto agreement and the Paris Agreement, the US believed that climate action would harm its economy.9

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated that warnings about climate change are inaccurate and pose a large threat to the oil industry.20

As a result of climate change denial, as well as lack of will, the Copenhagen Accord, drafted in the UN Climate Conference in 2009, did not set targets for reduced emissions that would prevent the 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise and there was no mention of a 1.5 degrees Celsius goal. Because many countries were reluctant to collaborate and compromise, a solution was not reached.19

Additionally, there has been pressure on countries to transition from dependency on fossil fuels to more sustainable forms of energy. However there are many barriers in place that

prevent countries from shifting. Because fossil fuels have been used for a long time, they are more readily available as there is infrastructure in place that allows for their use. For example, coal is available in large supply in many countries and is already an established source of power. Coal is also naturally more efficient in producing energy than many other sources, and there are technologies that have improved this efficiency. Further, in order to shift towards renewable sources of energy countries would have to invest in new infrastructure that would be extremely costly. There are not many technologies that allow for renewable energy development and the technologies that exist are more expensive than technologies for fossil fuels. Investing in renewable energy often has high initial costs, which discourages investors who are uncertain of its profitability. Establishing renewable energy also has high transaction costs as it is a relatively new industry, and there are many factors involved when developing new infrastructure. These challenges in transitioning to more sustainable forms often prevent countries from taking action against climate change.21 Current Status

According to the IPCC report released in August of 2019, climate change is expected

to have detrimental effects on global food supply, and thus human health. Governments are gradually implementing solutions to combat climate change, for example, the Paris Agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed in 2016 by 195 nations,the agreement states that the parties aim to keep the global average temperatures from rising more than 2°C (3.6°F), draft and maintain nationally determined contributions (NDCs), adapt to the changing climate, and support developing countries in their fight against climate change. However, the agreement does not provide explicit methods as to how nations are to achieve these goals, hence allowing some signatories to not live up to these expectations.22

Many agricultural communities rely on cyclic events in nature to predict the weather and climate. As a result of climate change, the patterns of these events have changed leaving farmers uncertain about when to plant and when to expect harvest. This has been seen in recent years, according to the IPCC the weather patterns have been different every year for the past 20 years. This makes it impossible for isolated farming communities to forecast weather patterns as traditional forecasting relies on patterns in nature,this contributes to food shortages in poorer communities which have less access to alternate methods of forecasting. This is dangerous for communities that rely on subsistence farming, in the summer of 2019 the Hopi tribe in the United States was able to avoid starving with the help of local grocery stores and seed storages, however many communities cannot afford to pay for food from grocery stores. Meteorologists predict that if farming communities are not provided with accurate forecasting methods the food shortages will continue to worsen.23

As shown in recent years, lower crop yields in one region often have a global impact. This is largely due to global interconnectedness, in many areas certain types of food, essential to nutritional diets, are acquired through trade with other regions. The trade of food benefits nations by providing them with a main export that can be produced at a small cost. 24

This could amplify the effect of climate change on food production, for example, droughts in wheat producing countries has led to the overall inflation of wheat based foods and food riots since 2006. Although climate change’s worst effects are first seen by the poorest, it has severe, detrimental impacts on global food supply, regardless of location, economy, etc., which are predicted to worsen by the IPCC.25 According to the Global Report on Food Crises 2019, an estimated 113 million people spanning throughout 53 nations experienced acute food insecurity.26

One of the primary reasons for this epidemic is weather shocks which offset agricultural and livestock productions. Regions in southern Africa have already experienced dry weather, resulting in downsized predictions for agricultural outputs in 2019, as well as elevated prices. Regions in East Africa are expected to experience an overall increase in pecipation, including intensified rainfall. Although this may serve to be advantageous to agricultural yields, it may amplify the destruction to nearby communities due to flooding and waterborne diseases. Regions in Latin America and the Caribbean have endured increased El Niño conditions, resulting predictions of increased extremities of droughts and/or rainfall. 27

Bloc Positions

Paris Agreement Stances Although 196 nations have signed the Paris Agreement, there are 10 that have not yet

ratified it. These countries are Angola, Eritrea, Iran, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Libya, South Sudan, Turkey, and Yemen.28

There are roughly seven countries that are in line to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement: Morocco, Gambia, India, Costa Rica, Bhutan, Philippines, and Ethiopia.29

Of these countries, three are part of the LDC (Least Developed Countries) bloc which has fully supported the climate action initiative. 30 31

At the 2019 U.N. Climate Action Summit, which took place as new data on global warming was released, with a new report estimating a 3 degrees Celsius increase in the average global temperature by 2100, few progressive strides were made. The nations that emit the most greenhouse gases, namely the United States, China, and India failed to make substantial promises in decreasing their pollution outputs. The United States has recently repealed policies that limit coal production and greenhouse gases emissions.32

Meanwhile, China claimed that they have kept to the Paris Agreement through actions such as expanding forested land and use of renewable energy, while denouncing other nations who have failed to do the same. Nonetheless, China did not express any plans to strengthen their climate action. Likewise, India failed to announce any assertive climate action plans, although it did vow that it would boost its renewable energy production capacity from 175 gigawatts to 450 gigawatts by 2022. By the end of the summit,

65 nations disclosed endeavors to attain net-zero emissions by 2050. More affluent nations, such as the United Kingdom and South Korea, have declared their goal to expand funding to the UN’s Green Climate Fund (GCF) and other such programs. Additionally, 30 nations, 22 states, and 21 companies have pledged to terminate coal reliance, and insurers and pension funds managing $2.3 trillion committed to cease investments in carbon-intensive industries by 2050.33

Europe The European Union is divided on climate action between Western and Eastern Europe,

Western countries are generally in support of climate action while, less developed Eastern Europe is generally against it. Policymakers in Eastern Europe believe that climate action is too expensive and they are uncertain of any long term benefits. 6

Asia Countries in Asia generally support climate action. Many Asian nations, such as India,

have developed national plans to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.34 A major player in

climate action in Asia is China, although China has the highest greenhouse gas emissions in the world due to its extensive coal industry. In general, half of the world’s global greenhouse gas emissions is concentrated in the Asian-Pacific area. However, efforts have been conducted by the area to alleviate this issue.35

For example, the Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN) holds forums and conventions where participants are able to discuss initiatives, experiences, and other information pertaining to climate change action. 36

The Americas Latin America generally supports climate action by enacting policies that protect oceans

and promote electric transportation.37 Brazil, however, has done little to protect the Amazon

rainforest. Here, people often clear the land for agricultural development, comprising the habitat for many wildlife.7

In North America, Canada is in support of climate action and has implemented many policies towards meeting the Paris Agreement Goals.38

This is in contrast to Mexico and the U.S. with their current administrations moving backward in terms of climate action.39 40

The Middle East and Africa African countries tend to be supportive of climate action as Climate Change has already

started to affect the African continent and is expected to cause massive crop shortages, water shortages, and increased spread of malaria.41

The Middle East is expected to receive some of the worst impacts and a few countries are making efforts to diversify their economies and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.42

Committee Mission The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), established in 1945, is an inclusive, specialized agency of the United Nations that conducts global endeavors to put an end to hunger. It believes that no action is too little or too large in ending global hunger, food security, and malnutrition. The objective of this committee, specifically, is for delegates to challenge their creativity and collaborate with others in order to devise a multilateral resolution on the effect of climate change on food supply. We will tackle the issues of temperature change, land degradation, industrialization, desertification, and flooding, among others that are related to climate change, and their implications on global food security. Additionally, we encourage delegates to discuss potential adaptations to climate change, in terms of sustainable food production.

Questions to Consider

- What has my country done in regards to climate change? - How does my country contribute to the global food supply? - How is my country impacted by climate change? - How can a solution account for the global trade of food? - What technologies/innovations are currently out there that can combat climate change

and/or increase food production?

Key Terms

Desertification: the process in which a once fertile land becomes unfertile dryland Agrarian economy: an economy that is reliant on agriculture, including livestock and/or crop production Greenhouse effect: when radiation from the sun is trapped in the Earth’s lower atmosphere as a result of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases: a gas that absorbs infrared radiation, an increased amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere contributes to the greenhouse effect Global Warming: the gradual increase in the Earth’s temperature as a result of the greenhouse effect Land degradation: the decreases in the quality of soil, water, and vegetation Climate justice: the idea that systematic changes to address inequalities are needed in order to take action on climate change Climate change denial: disbelief in the fact that climate and weather are affected by humans Transaction costs: all of the costs of creating an establishment including the cost of resources and the time needed to develop the establishment Nationally determined contributions: the efforts of individual countries towards the goals of the Paris Agreement Seed storages: storages of seeds used to produce food, kept for occasional crop failures Acute food insecurity: severe food insecurity LDC: a bloc of 47 developing countries that are considered extremely underdeveloped by the UN, these countries have contributed the least to Climate Change, but are more vulnerable to its effects.

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es-tackle-climate-change 37. Moyer, Erika. “A Look Back at 2018: Climate Action in Latin America.” NRDC, 31 Dec. 2018, www.nrdc.org/experts/erika-moyer/look-back-2018-climate-action-latin-america. 38. Government of Canada. “Canada's Action on Climate Change.” Canada.ca, Government of Canada, 18 Sept. 2019, www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-action.html. 39. Wallach, Philip A. “Where Does US Climate Policy Stand in 2019?” Brookings, The Brookings Institution, 29 Mar. 2019, www.brookings.edu/2019/03/22/where-does-u-s-climate-policy-stand-in-2019/. 40. Climate Action Tracker.org. “Mexico.” Mexico | Climate Action Tracker, New Climate, 19 Sept. 2019, https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/mexico/. 41. Golubski, Christina. “Even before the U.S. Left the Paris Agreement, Africa Stepped up to the Plate on Climate Change.” Brookings, The Brookings Institution, 12 Dec. 2017, www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2017/06/02/even-before-the-u-s-left-the-paris-agree

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