t11 imh research

8/9/2019 T11 IMH Research

1/15

NAME: IMPAC MORTGAGE HOLDINGS SYMBOL: IMH (AMEX)

MARKET CAP (1/9/15): $75 mii!" PRICE PER SHARE (1/9/15): 7#%

&LOAT: 7#5 MILLION SHARES A'G 'OLME ( MONTHS): 1*+%%%

T11 has taken a position in IMH during Q4 2014 at prices between 5.50-6.50 per share #

What Opportunities Does T11 Seek?

1# Sm, -!m.,"i0 i23 00 23," , $5%% mii!" m,42 -,.#

*# P!0000 3i66" ,0020 "!2 ,0i 8"-!46 !4 ,",6#

# Li22 2! "! ,",02 -!4,;#

,224i?820#

5# H, ,6,"-6 .,42"403i.0 !4 2-3"!!; 23,2 3, ;!" 8""!2i-6 ? m,42.,-#

@# A4 i"!6 i" ?80i"000 23,2 ,4 !82 != =,!4 ? , S242#

7# E,4"i";0 -,""!2 ? ,0i m!66 234!8;3 24,6i2i!", m,"0#

# M,",;m"2 i0 3,i i"!6 i" =8284 !82-!m != -!m.," 234!8;3 i"0i64 !"403i.+ .4=4,? i23 ," ,--!m.,"i"; 0i;"i=i-,"2 !820i6 i"02!4+ ,-2ii02 !4 !234i0#

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2/15

The Parallel

I" 8" != *%11+ I 4!2 ," ,42i- =!4 T3S242 ?4i= !82i"i"; 234 !..!428"i2i0 i" 23 0m,-,.0.,-# O" != 23 !..!428"i2i0 60-4i?6 ,0 CPSS+ , -!m.," 23,2 !==40 -46i2 2! 08?.4im ?!44!40 =!4 23 .84.!0 != -,4 !,"0# A2 23 2im != 23 ,42i- CPSS ,0 24,6i"; ,2 $1 .4 03,4#

O" != 23 m!02 ,224,-2i ,224i?820 23,2 23 -!m.," .!00006 ,0 23,2 i2 ,0 ;,i"i"; ,--00 2! ,24m"6!80 ,m!8"2 != -46i2 =,-ii2i0 234!8;3 m,F!4 , S242 ?,"0 3i 23 03,4 .4i-,";8i036# '4 0im.+ 230 -46i2 =,-ii2i0 .4!i66 23 =i4.!4 2! ? ,? 2! -4,2 0i;"i=i-,"24"80 ,"6 .4!=i20 i" 23 =8284# T3 !" F!? != CPSS ,2 23 2im ,0 2! =i"6 ?!44!40#

T3 -!m.," .4!0.46 ,0 , 4082 != 3,i"; , 08?02,"2i, ,m!8"2 != -,.i2, =!4 -!"08m40 2! ?!44!i23i" , -!"08m4 0.,- 23,2 "66 ,--00 2! 23,2 -,.i2,# T3 02!- .4i- "2 =4!m $1 i" 8" !=*%11 2! , 3i;3 != ",4 $1 i" A.4i != *%1#

IMH i0 , 0imi,4 0i28,2i!" i23i" , 6i==4"2 4,m != =i","-i, ?!44!i";# A0 I i 60-4i?+ 23-!m.," 3,0 3,2 ,m!8"20 2! ," !.""66 -46i2 =,-ii2 23,2 i ,! 23m 2! !4i;i",2 ,0 m,""!"8,i=i6 m!42;,;0 ("!"M) ,0 -," ? !4i;i",26 234!8;3 , 4-"2 6, 0i;"6 i23 M,-8,4iG4!8.+ 3i-3 i0 00"2i, 23 G!6m," S,-30 != A8024,i,# A66i2i!",+ -!m.," m,",;m"2 3,0 ?" ,2 23 3m =!4 !4 *% ,40+ 3,i"; 684i"; 23,2 2im ,--8m8,26 , 0i;"i=i-,"2 ,m!8"2 !=>.4i"- i" !4i;i",2i"; m!42;,; !,"0+ i23 , 0.-i,2 i" 23 "!"24,6i2i!", m!42;,; 0.,-#

Simi,4 2! CPSS 684i"; 23 .,02 ,"6 .40"2 =!4 ,82! !,"0+ 234 i0 "! ,- != 6m,"6 =!4 m!42;,;!,"0 2! ?!44!40 23,2 6!"2 m2 23 024i";"2 .40"2 6, 02,"6,460 2! 8,i= =!4 , !,"# IMH0 !" F!? 23" i0 2! 2 23 !46 23,2 23 3, 230 "!"M !,"0 ,,i,?#

CPSS STOCK PRICE 2011-PRESENT

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3/15

Past an Present Trau!a In The "ort#a#e Spa$e

i23 ," -- 234 ,4 i"i2,? .,0 ,"6 24!8;30 23,2 "!2 !" 4-,i?4,2 23 "2 !423 != 23!0i"!6+ ?82 ,0! 23 .0-3!!;i-, -,.,-i2 2! 6, i23 =8284 "20# I2 i0 "!2 8"2i 23 --6i00!0 -!m.2 23,2 i"02!40 ?-!m i"-,.,? != m,i"; ,--84,2 ,0000m"20 4;,46i";

.!2"2i, .!0i2i =8284 "20 68 2! 23 =,-2 23,2 ,!i6i"; .,i" 2,0 .4-6"2 !4 , 0#

I" "! !234 i"68024 i0 23i0 m"2,i2 m!4 .4,"2 23," m!42;,; "6i";# A=24 ,+ ,;;400i .,-,;6 m!42;,;0 4 ",4 40.!"0i? =!4 23 m26!" != "!2 F802 23 #S# =i","-i, 002m+ ?8223 ;!?, =i","-i, 002m ,0 , 3!# T3 .,i" >.4i"-6 ? i"02!40 i" 23i0 0-2!4 684i"; 23 -4i0i03,0 -42,i" "!2 ?" =!4;!22"# &!4 .4!!= != 23i0+ 0im. !! ,2 23 .4=!4m,"- != 23 66i-,26m!42;,; -!m.,"i0 4m,i"i"; i" 23 .8?i- ,"60-,.# Y!8 i =i"6 44,2i- 02!- .4i-0+ 8".46i-2,?,4"i";0 ,"6 , ;"4, ,;"!02i- 02,"- 2!,460 =8284 .!00i?ii2i0#

"ORT%&%E IN'EST"ENT SECTOR 2010-201(

T3 !..!428"i2 34 i0 i" 23 244i? mm!4i0 != 23 .,02# T30 mm!4i0+ m!4 0.-i=i-, 23i",?ii2 != i"02!40 2! 0 .,02 23m+ ,4 -,80i"; , ,; i" ,8 -4,2i!" 60.i2 23 .4!0.-2 =!4 ,

64,m,2i- i"-4,0 i" ,4"i";0 !4 23 ">2 1*@ m!"230#

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4/15

)u*in# & +o!e +as Taken & )a$kseat To Rentin#

A0 i23 ," 24,8m,+ 23 ",284, 4,-2i!" 2"60 2!,460 -,82i!" i" 23 2im =!!i"; 23 "2# 3,0" ," ,?8"6,"- != -,82i!" i" 23 m!42;,; 0.,- ,0 "8m4!80 m,0840 3, ?" .82 i"2! .,- 2!m, 084 , 6i0,024 6!0 "!2 4.i-,2 i20= i" 0!m =!4m !4 ,"!234 i" 23 =8284#

3,2 23i0 !4,?8"6,"- != -,82i!" 3,0 6!"+ 3!4+ i0 m, i2 i"!46i",2 6i==i-82 =!4 "8,i=i6 ?840 2! !?2,i" =i","-i"; 2! .84-3,0 3!m0# A0 , 4082+ 4"2i"; 3,0 ?-!m , .!.8,4!.2i!" !4 ?8i"; 684i"; 23 .,02 04, ,40 ,0 3!m !"403i. 4,20 3, .8";6#

A 23 m,"3i+ 4"20 -!"2i"8 2! 4i0#

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5/15

,allin# ne!plo*!ent . Easier &$$ess to "ort#a#es Coul Re/erse The Tren

T3 ?i;;02 ?846" =,-i"; .4!0.-2i ?840 3,0 ?" , ,- != F!? 0-84i2 ,"6 .4!3i?i2i "6i"; .4,-2i-0 ? =i","-i, i"02i282i!"0# T3i0 3,0 40826 i" m!42;,; ,..i-,2i!"0 00"2i, =,2i"i"; =!4m!02 != 23i0 6-,6#

T3 !?i!80 =!4m8, 2!,460 440i"; 23i0 24"6 i0 23 ,0 != ,--00 2! -,.i2, .,i46 i23 0802,i"68"m.!m"2 ?! @J# I" 23 -3,42 ?!+ !8 -," 0 23,2 , 0802,i"6 .4i!6 != ,--4,2i";3!80i"; 02,420 -!i"-i66 i23 0802,i"6 8"m.!m"2 ?! @J 02,42i"; i" 1995#

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6/15

The "a$ro Pi$ture "akes One ,a$t Clear

3i 23 m,-4! .i-284 ;i0 80 3i"20 23,2 ," ,--4,2i!" i" 23!0 0i"; m!42;,;0 -!86 ?immi""2+ 23 m!4 4,"2 m00,; i0 !" != 4i0 !4 4,234+ 23 ,- 234!=#

I2 i0 -,4 23,2 4"2, 4,20 3, 4,-36 .!i"20 23,2 3, !"- ,;,i" m,6 ?8i"; ," ,224,-2i .4!.!0i2i!"# 3,2 3,0 ?" ,-i"; 0i"- -!mi"; !82 != 23 =i","-i, -4i0i0 ,4 ?,"0 23,2 3,6 23-382.,3 2! 02,42 "6i"; !" =,!4,? 24m0+ 3234 23!0 24m0 i"!6 , !4 6!" .,m"2 !4m!4 4,0!",? 6!-8m"2,2i!"/8,i=i-,2i!" 48i4m"20#

T3i0 i0 , -3,";i";# T3 8034i"; i" != &,""i M, .,42i-i.,2i"; i" , J 6!" .4!;4,m =!4 =i402 2im3!m ?840 i0 23 =i402 02. i" 23 !!0"i"; != 23 !4024i";"2 48i4m"20 ?!4" != 23 -46i2-4i0i0#

T3 M!42;,; B,"40 A00!-i,2i!" (MBA) i0 =!4-,02i"; .84-3,0 !4i;i",2i!"0 2! i"-4,0 i" ?!23*%15 *%1@+ i23 *%1@ ?i"; 23 3i;302 "8m?4 != !4i;i",2i!"0 0i"- *%%7#

3,2 i0 -,4 i0 23,2 234 i0 "!2 , !2 != 6!"0i6 4i0 i" 23 m!42;,; m,42 ,2 .40"2# i23 4"80i"-4,0i"; ,"6 3i;3 m,4;i" i"i2i,2i0 08-3 ,0 "!"M ("!"8,i=i6 m!42;,;) !,"0 -!mi"; !"2! 23m,42+ 23 8.0i6 .!2"2i, i" 23 =!4m != ," imm6i,2 -,2,02 "! >i020 2! 0 0!m 4 4,"2,8 -4,2i!"# E0.-i, i" 23 =,- != , m,42 23,2 i0 00"2i, ,0. ,2 23 3 4;,46i"; 2304-"2 .!0i2i 6!.m"20# IMH i0 =!-80i"; !" 23 "!"M m,42 ,0 != *%1


7/15

The Potential O The Non-" "arket

S!84-: N,2i!", M!42;,; N0The decision to !inance "akers o! non-QM #oans is signi!icant !or $eutsche %ank& one o! the "an'#arge banks tr'ing to reco(er !ro" the subpri"e "ortgage crisis. It is a#so "eaning!u# to the broaderhousing "arket& which seeks reassurances that the new "ortgage ru#es& which took e!!ect in )anuar'&wi## not cut o!! production !or a## but u#trasa!e ho"e #oans. The "arket has the potentia# to beco"e a*600 bi##ion a 'ear industr' !or originations& $eutsche %ank researchers said in a recent report.+

T3 -!"04,2i 4;8,2!4 02,"- 23 CS&B (C!"08m4 &i","-i, P4!2-2i!" B84,8) ",-26 i" *%1<00"2i, 0-,40 "640 i"2! ?i"; 36 i,? 8"64 D!66&4," =!4 4,0!",?+ ;!!6=,i23624mi",2i!" != , ?!44!40 ,?ii2 2! 4.,# T3 ,?ii2 2! 4., i0 ,00006 m!02 ? ;,8;i"; 6?22! i"-!m ?,06 !" m,>im8m .4-"2,;0 ,!6#

&!4 23!0 ii"; 2! 2, !" 23 i2i;,2i!" 4i0+ 234 i0 -42,i" ," "!4m!80 m,42 != ?!44!40 3!=, !820i6 != 23 48i4m"20#

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8/15

et3s Work I"+ )a$k4ars

A0 I ,0 i" 23 .4!-00 != 4i2i"; 23i0 4.!42 IMH ,""!8"-6 , =!!8. 2! i20 D-m?4 1* 23+ *%1< K 3i-3 0,i6 23 =!!i";+ I"pac Mortgage Ho#dings& Inc. ,the o"pan'/ is current#' innegotiations to acuire the "ortgage origination business o! a #eading "ortgage originator.+

O" ,"8,4 + *%15 IMH ,""!8"-6 23,2 i2 3,6 .84-3,06 23 m!42;,; !4i;i",2i!" ?80i"00 != C,03C, I"-# S!m 3i;3i;320 =4!m 23 .400 4,0:

– In the !ourth uarter o! 2014& asha##s "ortgage di(ision (o#u"e was approi"ate#' *300"i##ion and is epected to add signi!icant retai# direct origination (o#u"e to the I"pac Mortgage orp. p#at!or" beginning in 2015. asha##s "ortgage operations wi## operate as a separate di(ision o! I"pac Mortgage orp. under the na"e asha## Mortgage.

– The transaction has been structured with a signi!icant contingent co"ponent o! the purchase price with the intent to "ini"ie the !inancia# risk !or I"pac Mortgage Ho#dings& Inc. whi#e

being accreti(e to earnings. #so& with I"pacs signi!icant ta #oss carr' !orwards& a## net pro!its !ro" asha## Mortgage are epected to generate signi!icant ta bene!its.

T4m0 != 23 6, 4 "!2 4,06# T3 m,i" .!i"20 ,4 23,2 (1) C,03 C,0 m!42;,; !4i;i",2i!" ?80i"00 imm6i,2 ==-2i 6!8?0 IMH0 4"80 (*) I2 i0 ,--42i 2! ,4"i";0 () IMH i02,4;2i"; i20 NOL0 i"02,6 != ,!i"; 23 NOL0 2! 0im. ? ," ,=2423!8;32+ 3i-3 i0 23 m!680!.4,"6i != , m,F!4i2 != 24,6i2i!", -!4.!4,2 m,",;40#

T3i0 6, 0i;",0 23,2 IMH i0 38";4 =!4 !8m ,"6 i0 ii"; 2! ? ,;;400i i" !464 2! ;,i" 23,2!8m# 3 !86 IMH ,"2 2! 64,m,2i-, i"-4,0 23i4 !8m i" ," ,;;400i =,03i!"

T3 ,"04 i0 i" , 4-"2 .,42"403i. 23,2 i0 24,"0=!4m,2i =!4 23 -!m.," m!i"; =!4,46#

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9/15

Enter "a$5uarie

O" S.2m?4 1523+ *%1< IMH ,""!8"-6 , .,42"403i. i23 A8024,i," i"02m"2 ?,"+ M,-8,4i#E00"2i,+ 234!8;3 23 .,42"403i. M,-8,4i i .84-3,0 , != IMH0 "!"m !4i;i",2i!"0+ .,-,;23m 8.+ 0-84i2i 23m ,"6 !" 6, i" 23 6i02,"2 =8284 602,?ii 23 "2i4 ;!?, -!"!m 234!8;3

i440.!"0i? =i","-i, ";i"4i";# T3,2 i0+ != -!840+ 0!m .!024-00i!",4 38m!4#

3,2 23 .,42"403i. i23 M,-8,4i ,--!m.i030 i0 2! 64i0 23 ?,,"- 032 != Im.,- 3i .4!i6i"; 3,2 ,m!8"20 2! ," !.""66 -!"08m4 != 3i;3 m,4;i" =i","-i, .4!68-2# Im.,- 0im."60 2! -!"-4" i20= i23 !4i;i",2i"; 230 !,"0# A0 !"; ,0 23 3, 23 !8m+ 23 "! 23,2M,-8,4i i .i- 8. 23 !,"0 !== 23i4 ?,,"- 032 ,2 .4624mi"6 m,4;i" 23,2 i0 3i;34 23,"4;8,4 m!42;,; .4!68-20#

T3i0 3i;3 m,4;i" .4!68-2 i0 23" 24,"0=446 !"2! M,-8,4i0 ?,,"- 032 34 Im.,- 04i-0 23!," ?82 =,-0 imi26 i,?ii2 =4!m 23,2 .!i"2 =!4,46#

T380+ -," 8"6402,"6 3 23 -!m.," i0 624mi"6 2! i"-4,0 !8m# T3i4 i,?ii2 i0 -,..63i ,!i"; =!4 0i;"i=i-,"2 .4!=i20 m!i"; =!4,46# Im.,-0 !" F!? 23" i0 2! !4i;i",2 !,"0# T34m,i"64 != 23 244,i" 3,0 ,4,6 ?" >.42 =42ii6 2! ,! =!4 .4!.4 -82i,2i!" != .4!=i20#

The Ta6 &ttri7utes

T! , .43,.0 8, >2"2 , 64ii"; =!4- ?3i"6 23 624mi",2i!" 2! ,-3i 0i;"i=i-,"2 .4!=i2,?ii2i0 i" 23 ,m!8"2 != NOL0 23 -!m.," .!00000# A--!46i"; 2! 23 m!02 4-"2 1%+ IMH 3,04!8;3 $5%% mii!" i" =64, NOL0 ,2 i20 6i0.!0,?# &84234+ 234 ,4 "! 4024i-2i!"0 !" 23 80 !=230 NOL0 m!i"; =!4,46#

A.,42 =4!m , !4i0/3i;3 4,46 m,-4! "i4!"m"2 =!4 m!42;,;0 m!i"; =!4,46+ 23 2!,=!4m"2i!"6 =,-2!40 ,4 23 ",?40 ?3i"6 IMH0 =8284 ,?ii2 2! ;"4,2 0i;"i=i-,"2 .4!=i20# 3, , ?,-02!. =!4 23 4i0 i" M,-8,4i 23,2 ,!0 m,",;m"2 2! ? ,;;400i i" !4i;i",2i";m!42;,;0 ,"6 3, 23 ,?ii2 2! 4,; .4!=i20 234!8;3 2,> ==i-i"- 23,2 -," ? 806 2! =84234;4! 23 ?80i"00 234!8;3 ,-8i0i2i!"0 ;!i"; =!4,46#

O" ?!23 23 mi"i"; =!4 .4!=i2 0i6 != 23 ?80i"00 ,"6 23 i"02i"; =!4 =84234 .4!=i2 0i6 != 23i4 ?80i"00+ m,",;m"2 3,0 23 ;4" i;32 2! .803 23 "!.# A"6 I ?i 23 i#

L20 !! ,2 m,",;m"2#

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10/15

The "ana#e!ent Tea!

! T!mi"0!" C3,i4m,"/CEO S2,426 i" 23 m!42;,; ?80i"00 i" 191# &!8"66 Im.,- i" 1995#

ii,m A03m!4 P40i6"2 O4 % ,40 >.4i"- i" 4, 02,2/m!42;,; "6i";# I" ,"

>-82i 4! i23 Im.,- 0i"- 1995#

T!66 T,!4 C&O H,0 ?" i23 Im.,- 0i"- *%%-# 'P H,0 ?" i23 Im.,- 0i"- 199

T3i0 i0 ," >24m >.4i"-6 ,"6 !, ;4!8. 3,i"; ?" 234!8;3 4 -!"-i,? ?4,"6 != 4,02,2/6?2 -- 0i"- 23 %0# T3 ;4 Im.,- =4!m , 0m, ,43!80 "64 i"2! !" != 23 2!."640 i" 23 -!8"24# A23!8;3 !" 23 ?4i" != ?,"48.2-+ 23 ,2346 23 =i","-i, 02!4m !=*%%/*%%9 23,2 08" , m,F!4i2 != 23i4 -!m.2i2i!" -!m.2#

M,",;m"2 3,0 "!2 ?" 03 ,?!82 ,22m.2i"; " 23i";0 =4!m 23 4 02,42# Im.,- i" 1995 -4,2623 A2A !," ?=!4 080."6i"; ,;;400i m!42;,; "6i"; 4i;32 ,2 23 !"02 != 23 =i","-i, -4i0i0i" *%%7# &4!m 1995 2! *%%7 Im.,- 3,6 !4i;i",26 !4 ,-8i46 $9% ?ii!" i" !,"0+ i23 $@% ?ii!" ?i"; 0-84i2i6 !" , S242#

T34 i0 , ;4,2 6, != 40ii"- ,"6 "24.4"8403i. ,2 !4 34# T3i0 2. != >.4i"-6m,",;m"2 2,m 23,2 i0 0!i6i=i"; im.!42,"2 .,42"403i.0 3i ,;;400i m!i"; =!4,46 -,"4.,2 23 08--000 != 23 .,02# T34 i0 "! 4,0!" 2! ?i 23,2 23i0 i 4m,i" , 08?$1%% mii!"m,42 -,. -!m.," i23 0.!4,6i- ;4!23 ,"6 2.i6 40820 m!i"; =!4,46#

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11/15

Creatin# Ei$ien$ies Throu#h & ,o$use Strate#*

S!m "!20 =4!m 4-"2 -!"=4"- -,0:

– A2 23 "6 != *%1 IMH sol o its 7ri$k an !ortar !ort#a#e lenin# operation+ 3i-3

0, , m!"23 !00 != ,..4!>im,2 7%%+%%%#– i23!82 23i0 42,i .4!68-2i!" IMH 3,6 , 3i;34 -!"-"24,2i!" != -!440.!"6"2 3!0,

!8m 3i-3 operates 4ith less operational o/erhea8 e6penses an $o!plian$e risk9

– D84i"; * *%1-6 !84 0-!"6 8,424 2,4;2#

T3 4082 != 230 ==i-i"-i0 03!86 ? , m!4 0802,i",? EPS m!i"; =!4,46# O= -!840+ 2324,F-2!4 != 23 EPS !4i;i",2i!" 6,2, .i-2846 i" 23 -3,42 ?! -3,";0 64,m,2i-, i23 234-"2 ,""!8"-6 C,03 C, ,-8i0i2i!"#

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12/15

Re$ent Earnin#s +i#hli#hts

S!m "!20 =4!m m!02 4-"2 -!"=4"- -,:

– ith the eception o! Q7s signi!icant !#uctuation and "arket-to-"arket ad8ust"ent o! the net

trust assets IMH has continued to see a consistent, positive quarterly trend of improvingconsolidated net results over the last five quarters.

– Tota# originations increased nearly 100 percent to *927.6 "i##ion !ro" *465 "i##ion in the second uarter o! 2014.

– :(era##& trends in mortgage lendings are very positive !ro" second uarter to third uarterwith the (o#u"e up a#"ost 100 percent& revenues increasing b' 70 percent and expenses downuarter o(er uarter.

– ccording to "anage"ent& IMH is in the beginning stages o! ra"ping up non-ua#i!ied

"ortgage originations which current#' are predo"inant through the who#esa#e channe# andthe' epect these originations to continue to grow as they enhance marketing and trainingefforts which will add to the overall mortgage origination volume.

– ith e"phasis on increasing quarterly origination volume to a bi##ion do##ars p#us #e(e# andreducing expenses on a per #oan basis& IMH wi## continue to "ake !urther ad8ust"ents in the"anu!acturing process and !ocus on certain ke' custo"ers where the' can !und a higher percentage o! their production. C,00i- i"-4,0i"; !8m 3i m,4;i"0 >.,"6 68 2! .4i!80 ",-26 i"i2i,2i0 0-",4i!# A;,i"+ C,03 C, ,-8i0i2i!" !" "3,"-0 23i0 ==-2#

– It shou#d be noted that the (o#u"e increases !or 2014 are back end #oaded as co"pared to 2017

where the highest percentage o! (o#u"e was in the !irst two uarters. Third uarter o! 2014origination (o#u"e was *100 "i##ion higher than the co"bined (o#u"es in the !irst and seconduarter o! 2014. This is i"portant because increase in volumes in the third and fourth quarterof 2014 will allow mortgage lending to sustain momentum into the first half of 2015.B,0i-,+ =!4-,02i"; -!"2i"86 ;4!23 i" ,4"i";0 234!8;3 23 =i402 3,= != *%15#

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13/15

Risks

– A2M m!42;,;0 -,44 i2i;,2i!" 4i0 68 2! 23 =i" i" 23 , ,4!8"6 CS&B 4;8,2i!"0#IMH 0m0 2! 3, mi2i;,26 , .!42i!" != 23,2 4i0# H!4+ i2 -,""!2 ? 0,i6 23,2 23 4i0 i0imi",26+ 0.-i, i= 23 "i4!"m"2 =!4 m!42;,; "6i"; 0!840 i23 6=,82 4,20

i"-4,0i"; =!4 230 !,"0#

– IMH i0 ?3!6" 2! 23 i"2402 4,2 m,420# A 0.i i" !";24m 4,20 !86 ,640 ,==-2 .4!=i2,?ii2#

– T3 !";!i"; ;!4"m"2 -!"40,2!403i. i23 40.-2 2! GSE0 .!00 , 4i0 2! IMH#P404,2i!" != 23 -!"40,2!403i. !86 -4,2 8"-42,i"2 ;!i"; =!4,46 =!4 23 -!m.," ,023 3, >2"0i 6,i";0 i23 &,""i ,"6 &466i#

– T34 i0 , ;!!6 ?i2 != m,-4! 4i0 34 ,0 23 4, 02,2 m,42 i0 2i6 2! "8m4!80 ,4i,?0#L!";24m ,"00 i" 4, 02,2 !86 -4,2 , ";,2i im.,-2 !" ,4"i";0 ,0 !4i;i",2i!"0

6-4,0#

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14/15

The )otto!line

IMH 3,0 =!4m6 , ;,m -3,";i"; .,42"403i. 23,2 ,!0 =!4 23 -!m.," 2! ,;;400i m,42 ,3i;3 m,4;i" m!42;,; .4!68-2 23,2 i0 i" i20 i"=,"-# C844"2 m,42-,.+ " =!!i"; 23 4-"2,-8i0i2i!"+ ,!0 =!4 0802,i",?+ >.!""2i, 8.0i6 ;i" 34 23 m!42;,; ,"6 4, 02,2

m,420 -844"2 40i6 i23i" 23i4 !";24m --0#

A" >.4i"-6 -!m.," m,",;m"2 3,i"; ?" 234!8;3 "8m4!80 4, 02,2 --0 i" 23 .,02 3,0,4,6 03!" ," ,;;400i 02,"- 2!,460 -4,2i"; ,8 =!4 03,43!640 234!8;3 4,;i"; 8.0i6i, ,-8i0i2i!"0 ,0 23 -!m 8.!" , =,!4,? 8.0i6 -- i" 23 -!mi"; ,40#

A 6i0.4!.!42i!",2 ,4; ,m!8"2 != 2,> ?"=i20 4,2i 2! m,42-,. i ,! IMH 2! =842344,; .4!=i20 ,0 23 ,4 4i"026 i" ,--42i ,-8i0i2i!"0 0imi,4 2! C,03C,#

T3 =,!4,? m,-4! "i4!"m"2 i" 24m0 != ! i"2402 4,20 ,"6 ! 4,2i 3!m !"403i. 4,20+3i 23 F!?0 m,42 -!"2i"80 2! 02,?ii !" mi2i;,20 4i0 i" IMH =84234#

A0mm24i- .4!.42i0 ,?!8"6#

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15/15

E%& DISC&I"ER s o! the pub#ication date o! this report& T11 ;IT< M=>?M?=T

t11 imh research

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