TBM Costing Lessons from Recent ITER Activities

Scott WillmsLos Alamos National Laboratory

Presented atINL

August 10, 2005

Outline of preparing ITER TEP scope/schedule/budget

• Establish mission- functional specifications• Establish key quantitative design specifications• Assess the state-of-the-art-Make technology choices• Consider the phases of the project-conceptual, preliminary, final• Identify key interfaces• Establish basic organization• Establish work elements (beginnings of work breakdown structure)• Completeness-Categories explicitly included in the TEP procurement package• Establish WBS• Costing• Schedule• Expenditure profile• Cost savings• Risk• Risk results in cost• Finalize package

Note that this is iterative process

Establish mission- functional specifications

• What is the qualitative purpose of the system?• Example: TEP must

– Recover hydrogen isotopes from impurities such as water and methane

– Deliver purified, mixed hydrogen isotopes to the ISS

– Dispose of non-tritium species

• Elements of TBM mission statement– Fundamental data collection?

– Testing of interfaces?

– Integrated operation?

Establish key quantitative design specifications

• The major design specifications can be a relatively short list• TEP Design Specifications

– Lose no more than 1 Ci/day to the Vent Detritiation System

– Overall decontamination factor (DF) of 108

– Process gas from 450 s and 3000 s pulses at a flowrate of 150 SLPM (253 Pam3/s).

Assess the state-of-the-art/make technology choices

Control PanelFirst Stage PMR(Second StageHidden Behind)

Metal BellowPump Turbo Pump

PMR-US

Caper-FzK

JFCU-JA(US)

Prepare key system drawings-TEP process flow diagram (preliminary design)

TEP- Process and instrumentation diagram (preliminary design)

Mechanical drawings (final design)

Identify key interfaces

• Who sends something to us and what are they sending?• Who are we sending stuff to and what are we sending?• TEP examples

– TEP accepts gas from the torus vacuum pumping system

– TEP sends pure DT to the isotope separation system and to the vent detritiation system

– Tritium plant sends material to fueling, etc.

Establish basic organization

• What are the key roles and responsibilities?• Who needs to be involved?• TEP examples

– The ITER International Team is• The design authority (adopting specifications)• Change control• Responsible for the overall success of the project

– A technical team is responsible for• Technical expertise• Recommend design and design changes (specifications)• Interfacing with other systems

– A fabrication entity (e.g. industry) is responsible for• Fabrication to design specifications

Establish work elements (beginnings of work breakdown structure)

Work Elements-Categories explicitly included in the TEP procurement package

• Overhead costs• Detailed design (limited to manufacturing design)• Purchasing/fabrication• Factory testing• Packaging and transportation• On-site installation/assembly• On-site testing• Documentation and QA• Technical supervision• Recommended spares• AFI (Allowance for Indeterminants)

Work Elements-Categories not explicitly included in the TEP procurement package

• Contingency• Supporting R&D• Detailed design (pre-manufacturing design)• Engineering follow: Preparing, awarding and following

procurement package contracts

• Installation• Design basis documentation• Design integration• Cost savings• Special categories: For TEP FMEA results need to

be incorporated into design

Establish WBS

WBS Number Description Comments

1.3.2.1.1 Administration Includes general management of the TEP procurement

package, scheduling, controls and reporting 1.3.2.1.2 R&D

1.3.2.1.2.1 TEP R&D This budget will be used to obtain or confirm key

technical parameters as the design progresses

1.3.2.1.2.3 Tritium Plant R&D The risk associated with operating the scaled-up Tritium

Plant will be mitigated in part by performing dynamic modeling

1.3.2.1.3 Engineering

1.3.2.1.3.1 Design

1.3.2.1.3.1.1

TEP Design Final design and other: Considerable work is needed to finalize the design. Other specific tasks include incorporation of FMEA results and design basis documentation.

1.3.2.1.3.1.2 Tritium Plant Integration

Participation in activities to ensure TEP is properly integrated with other tritium handling systems: Includes participation in Tritium Plant Integration Group activities

1.3.2.1.3.2

Title III Technical guidance for fabrication contract: Includes technical preparation of RFQ, contract award, engineering follow and guidance, and acceptance testing

1.3.2.1.4 Fabrication/Procurement All activities expected to be subcontracted to industry for

TEP fabrication and procurement (ITER Estimate)

1.3.2.1.6 Spares Day one spares recommended by ITER. May also be

subcontracted to industry. (ITER Estimate) Total

Costing

Cost estimation methods and sources

• Conceptual/preliminary design– Scale from existing experience

– Compare to similar estimates from others

– Estimate is rough and has large contingency

• Preliminary/final design– Full bottoms up estimate

– Industrial bids

– Estimate is more accurate and has lower contingency

Schedule

When developing schedule consider

• Consider if this is a “first-of-a-kind” or “nth-of-a-kind” system• Consider all elements in WBS• But also consider many other things that take time

• Staffing

• training program completion

• completion of operator training (five shifts)

• readiness reviews

• corrective actions

• nuclear facility license completion

• tritium inventory management systems

• Calibrations

• control system tuning

• as-built performance characterization

• as-built drawing completion

• operating procedure preparation, shake-down, revision and publication

• alarm/interlock testing

• rework/replacement of systems

• incorporation of Tritium Plant control into overall ITER control system

• etc.

Example TEP procurement schedule

ID Task Name

1 R&D (Tritium Plant)2 Complete design3 Prepare RFQ4 Engineering Follow5 Award contract6 Documentation and QA7 Fabrication8 R&D (Fabrication)9 Factory Testing10 Delivery and installation11 On-Site Testing12 Subsystem Operations with H and D13 Subsystem Operations with Tritium14 Tritium Plant Integrated Operations15 Full DT Operations for ITER shots16 Contingency17 Tritium Plant Integration

2/1

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Expenditure profile

• With cost and schedule done, an expenditure profile can be prepared

Cost savings

• There may be opportunities to save cost by– Revising specifications

– Leveraging with existing work

– Moving the work elsewhere (e.g. to the operations phase)

Risk

• Every project has risk (i.e. likelihood that project goals will not be met on schedule and budget)– There is relatively straight forward risk

• Rain• Key individuals quit• Supplier delays• Contingency for n-th of a kind construction is 5-10%

– And there is more complicated risk• Various possibilities

– We tried this once on a lab bench and it worked

– We’re pretty sure this technology will work

– We’re sure we can make it work, but we don’t yet know how

– We have no idea how to make this work

• Contingency for first-of-a-kind work might typically run 20-50%• (Apollo contingency ended up being 100%)

Risk results in cost. Risk can be managed

• List technologies and processes needed for the project• Identify the risk associated with each step• Where risk is unacceptable it must be mitigated by:

– Perform R&D (adds cost)

– Design around it (adds cost if redesign is needed)

– Add contingency (adds cost)

– In this way risk is “quantified” as additional cost to the project

• Note: Fundamental R&D drives to discovery. Project R&D drives to minimizing risk so that project goals are met. While both are called R&D, the two types of R&D are quite different.

Summary of preparing ITER TEP scope/schedule/budget

• Establish mission- functional specifications• Establish key quantitative design specifications• Assess the state-of-the-art-Make technology choices• Consider the phases of the project-conceptual, preliminary, final• Identify key interfaces• Establish basic organization• Establish work elements (beginnings of work breakdown structure)• Completeness-Categories explicitly included in the TEP procurement package• Establish WBS• Costing• Schedule• Expenditure profile• Cost savings• Risk• Risk results in cost• Finalize package

Note that this is iterative process