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© 2016 The European House - Ambrosetti S.p.A. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. This document is property of TEH-A. It may not bereproduced, memorized for storage in an electronic data base or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic,mechanical, photocopying, recording or other), in whole or in part, without the express written consent of TEH-A.
Milan, 6th October, 2016
TECH INSIGHTS 2016UV Day
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEXThe true measure of a Country's attractiveness
Valerio De MolliManaging Partner The European House - Ambrosetti
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
2
Index
Introduction
Why investments are strategic for Europe
Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
3
The European House – AmbrosettiOur figures, our successes
200
PEOPLETHINK TANK
301°
(*) In the University of Pennsylvania’s 2015 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report
EVENTS
300
Organized meetings
and gatherings
yearly
EXPERTS
2.000
National and international
experts involved in
per year
10.000
MANAGER
Accompanied in their
search for growth and
development
Over 20STUDIES AND RESEARCHES
Addressed to Italian and
international institutions
per year
In cross-border M&A
operations, with its affiliate
K-Finance
CONSULTING FIRM
50
YEARS
Working alongside
entrepreneurs to help them
grow
1st in Italy, 4th
in Europe and in the top 20
internationally (*)
400
CLIENTS
Served in consulting
per year
Demonstrating their passion
and commitment
With entrepreneurial
families
GOVERNANCE PACTS
COUNTRIES
12
Direct presence or partnership
1°
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
4
Our Mantra
WITHOUT INVESTMENTS, THERE ARE NO JOBS, WITHOUT JOBS, THERE IS NO GROWTH,
WITHOUT GROWTH, THERE IS NO FUTURE!
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
5
Index
Introduction
Why investments are strategic for Europe
Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
6
Research and Innovation are essential drivers for growth: R&D expenditures are strongly correlated with GDP growth
R&D expenditure and GDP growth(Avg. growth rate and % change), 2000-2014, selected EU and non EU Countries
R² = 0,724
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
GD
P (
avg.
gro
wth
rat
e, 2
00
0-2
01
4)
R&D Investments (% change, 2000-2014)
South Korea
Turkey
Estonia
China
Israel
Italy
United States
DenmarkJapan
GermanyFranceNon EU countries
EU countries
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank and OECD data, 2016
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
7
R² = 0,9005
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Exp
ort
(%
ch
ange
, 20
00
-20
14
)
R&D Investments (% change, 2000-2014)
An increase in R&D expenditures is also positively correlated with increase in export value
R&D expenditure and Export growth(% change), 2000-2014, selected EU and non EU Countries
Non EU countries
EU countries
Estonia
China
Turkey
South Korea
Poland
IrelandJaoan
USFrance
Italy
Germany
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
8
EU’s role as leading investment hub is shrinking, but still remains the largest
31.5%
22.0%
6.3%
4.4%
19.9%
EU-28
USA
Hong Kong
China
Singapore
Brazil
Switzerland
Canada
Australia
Russia
Others
2006 2014
World stock: €18.5 trillionWorld stock: €10.8 trillion
Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD data, 2016
World FDI stocks(%), 2006 and 2014
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
9
The “investability” of EU is highly fragmented and this is unlikely to change significantly without UK
(*) No available data for 2014, latest data available
GFC
FFD
I sto
ck
Gross Fixed Capital Formation and FDI stock in the EU-28(% of EU-28 total value), 2014
Legend:
Top 10
Middle 8
Bottom 10
Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD and World Bank, 2016
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
10
EU suffers more than others the post-crisis
FDI inflows as % of GDP(selected countries, average)
Delta post-precrisis [p.p.] +1.10 +0.69 -0.32 +0.82 -1.54 -1.43 -0.09 -0.04
Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD data, 2016
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
11
Index
Introduction
Why investments are strategic for Europe
Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
Mission and objectives of the project
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
12
The rational behind the Global Attractiveness Index
International rankings on competitiveness have a relevant weight:
In steering companies decision and public policies
In positioning a Country-System in the international community
Considering the most relevant international rankings (World Bank, World Economic Forum, IMD, etc.), in the last 10 years Italy ranked in the last positions compared to other developed Countries and often behind few developing countries
Even considering Italian criticalities, the above mentioned rankings are not in line with other factual evidences
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
13
Italy is 25th in the world considering FDIs flows
China1
Hong Kong2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
USA
UK
Singapore
Brazil
Canada
Australia
India
The Netherlands
2014 flows(bln$, current prices)
Vs. 2013 2014 flows(bln$, current prices)
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD data, 2016
20
Chile
Spain
Mexico
Indonesia
Switzerland
Russian Fed.
Finland
Colombia
France
Poland
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
129
103
92
72
68
62
54
52
34
30
23
23
23
23
22
21
19
16
15
14
Vs. 2013
25 Italy 11
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
14
Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs), stock 2014 and % GDP 2014
The gap with benchmark Countries is significant: stock
% GDP 2014
Stock 2014 bln $
56.4 19.3 25.6 17.351.4
1,633
745 729 722
374
Regno Unito Germania Francia Spagna Italia
Italian Gap 345% 99% 95% 93%
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD data, 2016
United Kingdom Germany France Spain Italy
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
15
Advisory Board
Ambrogio Bollini (Supply Senior Vice President, Toyota Material Handling Europe)
Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia)
Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas)
Enrico Giovannini (Full Professor of Economic Statistics, Università Di Roma “Tor
Vergata”, former President ISTAT and Minister of Labour and Social Policies)
Matteo Marini (Chairman, ABB Italia)
Leonardo Salcerini (CEO, Toyota Material Handling Italy)
Angelo Trocchia (Chairman and CEO, Unilever Italy)
Valerio De Molli (CEO, The European House - Ambrosetti)
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
16
Objectives of the project
1. Analyze the methodologies applied by main international rankings and highlight their strengths and weaknesses
2. Build an innovative and reliable index on Country-attractiveness (Global Attractiveness Index - GAI)
3. Identify attractiveness’ Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and set up an interpretative model for Italy (“Tableau de Bord”)
4. Identify and analyze the best practices to manage a Country’s image and the positioning in international rankings
5. Provide policy recommendations and operative proposals for an effective strategy in order to improve Italy’s image and attractiveness
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
17
Index
Introduction
Why investments are strategic for Europe
Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
The distortions of other rankings
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
18
Italy position: competitiveness indexes
Ease of Doing Business Index 2016
(189 Countries)
(World Bank)
45thItaly
Global Competitiveness Index 2015-2016
(140 Countries)
(World Economic Forum)
12thMacedonia
18thMalaysia
43thItaly
18thMalaysia
31thCzech Rep.
World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2015
(61 Countries)
(IMD)
38thItaly
14thMalaysia
16thIreland
19thIceland
32thMauritius
32thThailand
35tyChile
29thCzech Rep.
30thThailand
38thMexico 37thIndonesia 34tyKazakhstan
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
19
Italy position: specific areas (1/2)
Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index
2016 (40 Countries)
(Deloitte)
28thItaly
Global Talent Competitiveness Index
2015-2016 (109 Countries)
(INSEAD)
8thMexico
14thThailand
41stItaly
17thIceland
26thSlovenia
Corruption Perception Index 2015 (168 Paesi)
(Transparency International)
61°postoItaly
21°postoUruguay
23°postoChile
15thPoland
16thTurkey
28thMalta
32tyCyprus
28°postoBotswana
44°postoRwanda
17thMalaysia 39thBarbados 57°postoGhana
Corruption Perceptions Index 2015
(168 Countries)
(Transparency International)
61st
21st
23rd
28th
44th
57th
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
20
Italy position: specific areas (2/2)
Social Progress Index 2015
(133 Countries)
(Social Progress Imperative)
31stItaly
Global Innovation Index 2015
(141 Countries)
(INSEAD)
19thSlovenia
22ndCzech Rep.
31stItaly
8thIreland
23rdEstonia
Global Peace Index 2015
(162 Countries)
(Institute for Economics and Peace)
36thItaly
12thIreland
18thBhutan
24thUruguay
26thChile
24thCzech Rep.
28thSlovenia
19thPoland
25thMauritius
28thCosta Rica 30thPortugal 34tyCosta Rica
Press Freedom Index 2016
(180 Countries)
(Reporters without Borders)
77thItaly
6thCosta Rica
17thNamibia
20thUruguay
22ndSuriname
42tyBurkina Faso
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Correlations exists between high positions in the rankings and the nationality of the Institution conducing the ranking
In these rankings Italy is always places in the middle of the ranking, in some case places even worse
Country Ranking
Index Institute Country US Switz. Germany France Australia Italy
Ease of Doing Business WB USA 7th 26th 15th 27th 13th 45th
Global Competitiveness Index WEF Switerland 3rd 1st 4th 22nd 21st 43th
World Competitiveness Scoreboard IMD Switerland 1st 4th 10th 32ty 18th 38th
Global Peace Index IEP Australia 94st 5th 16th 45th 9th 36th
Social Progress Index SPI USA 16th 3rd 14st 21st 10th 31st
Corruption Perception Index TI Germany 17th 7th 10th 25th 13th° 61st
Global Talent Competitiveness Index INSEAD France 4th 1st 14th 22° 13th 41st
Global Manufacturing Index Deloitte USA 2nd 12th 3rd 22nd 21st 28th
Global Innovation Index INSEAD France 5th 1st 12th 21st 17th 31st
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
22
205,3
258,1
338,1
404,8
888,5
2141,2
Repubblica Ceca
Cile
Malesia
Tailandia
Indonesia
Italia
The comparison between Italy and some country that ranks better poses doubts on the validity of these rankings (1/3)
Italy is 8th globally considering GDP, 9th considering export and 13th consideringGFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation)
GDP 2014(bln. US$; market prices)
Export 2014 (bln US$)
86,64
171,92
198,82
249,75
280,11
632,18
Cile
Repubblica Ceca
Indonesia
Malesia
Tailandia
Italia
Gross fixedinvestments (bln US$)
51,3
56,8
87,8
99,7
289,4
355,7
Repubblica Ceca
Cile
Malesia
Tailandia
Indonesia
Italia
Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016
Global Competitiveness Index 2015-2016
(140 Countries)
(World Economic Forum)
Italy Italy Italy
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Thailand
Thailand
Thailand
Malaysia
Malaysia
Malaysia
Chile
Chile
Chile
Czech Rep. Czech Rep.
Czech Rep.
43thItaly
18thMalaysia
31thCzechRep.
32thThailand
35tyChile
37thIndonesia
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
23
Scientific publications, 1996-2015 (1,000)
Italy is 3th globally considering number of scientific publications and 4th in Europe considering the value of production in high tech sectors
Global Innovation Index 2015 (141 Countries)
(INSEAD)
High-tech sectors, value of production (€ bln.)
1.794
2.269
2.362
11.284
38.903
45.188
Estonia
Slovenia
Portogallo
Repubblica Ceca
Irlanda
Italia
28.660
71.408
150.552
214.838
237.910
1.318.466
Estonia
Slovenia
Irlanda
Portogallo
Repubblica Ceca
Italia
Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016
The comparison between Italy and some country that ranks better poses doubts on the validity of these rankings (2/3)
Italy
Czech Rep.
Portugal
Ireland
Slovenia
Estonia
Italy
Ireland
Czech Rep.
Portugal
Slovenia
Estonia
31stItaly
8thIreland
23rdEstonia
24thCzechRep.
28thSlovenia
30thPortugal
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
24
The comparison between Italy and some country that ranks better poses doubts on the validity of these rankings (3/3)
Manufacturing, export 2014
(bln. US$)
Manufacturing, AV2014
(bln US$)
77,4
100,3
112,1
142,1
229,2
329,7
Malesia
Polonia
Tailandia
Turchia
Messico
Italia
144,7
123,7
216,6
227,6
311,2
528,7
Malesia
Turchia
Polonia
Tailandia
Messico
Italia
Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index
2016 (40 Countries)
(Deloitte)
Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016
Italy
Mexico
Turkey
Thailand
Poland
Malaysia
Italy
Mexico
Thailand
Poland
Turkey
Malaysia
Italy is 4th globally considering the AV of manufacturing industry and 7th globallyconsidering manufacturing export
28thItaly
8thMexico
14thThailand
15thPoland
16thTurkey
17thMalaysia
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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We have analysed > 80 Country-indexes detecting few criticalities
Qualitative survey
Weighting
“Optimal” models
Non-homogeneousdata
“Critical Mass”
Static
Representativeness
Often are poorly statistically representative and subjective, alsoaccording those who provide answers
Introducing subjective elements
The functioning model of the Country where the Institution providingthe ranking is based conditions the parameters and the comparison
Different aggregation criteria are used for non-comparable data
The absolute dimension of a Country is not taken into account
The sustainability of the positioning in the middle-term is not takenin account
KPI not fully representative of the phenomenon to be measured and the reference context is not taken in account and the KPI’sjudgement is too negative/positive
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
26
Few other examples of distorsions detected
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Excessive use of survey: the case of Ease of Doing Business (1/2)
QUALITATIVE SURVEY
10* topics12 questionnaires in
189 Countries
Starting a Business (1)
Dealing with Construction Permits (1)
Getting Electricity (3)
Registering Property (1)
Getting Credit (1)
Protecting Minority Investors (1)
Paying Taxes (1)
Trading Across Borders (1)
Enforcing Contracts (1)
Resolving Insolvency (1)
In 2016 took part to the survey 11,400 entrepreneurs, professionals e civil servants
The number of contributors (and consequently of questionnaires available) changes for each Country and topic
Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016
(*) For each area the World Bank proposes few questionnaires; the number is indicated in the brackets
Methodological bias :
1. Questionnaires are based on the representation of a business case, used for each surveyed economy
2. The legal entity of the companies surveyed is the one of LTD or the equivalent, in each countries, of companies of the same dimension
3. It is supposed that companies have all the information required to complete each field of the survey
4. The ranking do not consider the socio-economic situation of the country
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Excessive use of survey: the case of Ease of Doing Business (2/2)
Top-20 Countries for numberof contributors to the survey
N. Of contributes*
India 370
Brazil 356
Russian Federation 316
Turkey 241
Nigeria 232
Mexico 215
Malaysia 204
Indonesia 188
Ukraine 188
Italy 187
Dominican Republic 166
Kazakhstan 152
Poland 150
Kuwait 141
China 139
Romania 137
Egypt 134
Bulgaria 133
Croatia 130
Greece 130
PwC Italy Alemani e Associati Studio dell'Avvocato Antich Studio Legale Associato ad Ashurst LLP Penal Court of Rome Civil Law Notary, Lawyer Studio Legale Beltramo Spediporto - Associazione Spedizionieri Corrieri e
Trasportatori di Genova BDA Studio Legale Raynaud and Partners - Studio Legale Almaviva S.p.A. - Direzione Affari Legali Studio Corno - member of Russell Bedford International Tonucci & Partners, in alliance with Mayer Brown LLP Il Punto Real Estate Advisor Orsingher Ortu – Avvocati Associati Legance - Studio Legale Associato NCTM - Studio Legale Associato Cocuzza e Associati Portolano Cavallo Studio Legale .........
Some Italian contributor
(*) Number of contributions changes not only accordingly to the Country, but also, in the same Country, accordingly to different fields of the survey. For Italy, 153 contributors have been mapped. In 2016 they have answered to 187 questionnaires
10° place
Few companies and scarcely representatives
5% of the total
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Excessive use of survey and qualitative indexes taken from other rankings: the Global Competitiveness Index
Several rankings use KPI taken from other indexes or that are the final result of other Country-indexes
Final results of these rankings are unclean and unreliable because of methodological choices adopted
An example is the Global Competitiveness Index (WEF), using for its 12 pillars some KPI taken from other sources (e.g. Ease of Doing Business from the World Bank):
12 pillars
114 variables, of these 6 from Ease of Doing Business (WB) and 6 from the World Economic Outlook (IMF)
80 variables are the results of qualitative surveys
In Italy, the rate of respondents of the 1,000 questionnaires submitted each year is between 8% and 10%
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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0,5
1,1
1,2
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,1
2,2
2,2
3,0
3,0
3,3
3,6
3,9
6,2
Italia
Belgio
Grecia
Austria
Lussemburgo
Francia
Portogallo
Spagna
Danimarca
Regno Unito
Irlanda
Germania
Paesi Bassi
Svezia
Finlandia
Expenditures in prevention(% of current public healthcare expenditures)
4.1 accordingAgenas detections
OECD data compares Countries with different healthcare systemsand different financing models
In Italy, public expenditures in prevention are equal to 4.1% on total healthcare public expenditures. It would make our Country above the UE average and above Germany, France and Northern Europe Countries
4.1
"Apple with Oranges": the case of healthcare expenditures
Sweden
The Netherlands
Real ItalianValue
Finland
Germany
Ireland
UK
Denmark
Spain
Portugal
France
Luxembourg
Austria
Greece
Belgium
Italy
Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on OECD data, 2016
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Why Italy is still alive and kicking
Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration, 2016
1. Italy is the fist European country for number of SMEs - 403,000, double the number in France (207,000) and Germany (204,000) and nearly double the sum of the Spain (161,000) and the United Kingdom (124,000) together
2. Italy is the first European country for average number of references in international publications per researcher (0,61 vs 0,40 of the UK and 0,32 of the France)
3. Italy is the second European country for Value Added produced in the manufacturing industry (216 Billion Euros in 2014)
4. Italy is one of just five countries in the world (along with China, Germany, Japan and South Korea) that is able to boast a manufacturing surplus of more than 100 Billion Dollars
5. The Italian gross trade balance is positive since 2012
6. Italy is one of the few G-20 countries with a positive trade balance in the manufacturing sector
7. In the Eurozone our country remains the favourite destination of non-European tourists (mainly from China, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Australia, United States and Canada)
8. Household savings remain high in comparison with other developed economies and families’ private wealth is more high
9. Italy is the world’s top country for Heritage & Culture (51 out of 1001 UNESCO World Heritage Sites)
10. Despite counterfeiting and unfair trade practices from “Italian-sounding” products, Italy is on the podium of world trade in agri-food products
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Index
Introduction
Why investments are strategic for Europe
Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
The methodology of the Global Attractiveness Index
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
33
The objectives defined to build the Global Attractiveness Index - GAI
Annual update, allowed by the usage of variables (KPI) periodicallydetected from main international institutionsREPLICABILITY
OBJECTIVITY
SOUNDNESS
MEANINGFULNESS
Principally based on quantitative and objective variables coming from main international database
Few proxy indicators, non-dependend between each other
Focus on results (output) compared to efforts (input)
GAI goal: measure the attractiveness of a Country, critical element to evaluate its development capability
INSIDE OUTSIDE
Capability to retain resources alreadyin the Country
Capability to attract resources notyet in the Country
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
34
The objectives defined to build the Global Attractiveness Index - GAI
Annual update, allowed by the usage of variables (KPI) periodicallydetected from main international institutionsREPLICABILITY
OBJECTIVITY
SOUNDNESS
MEANINGFULNESS
Principally based on quantitative and objective variables coming from main international database
Few proxy indicators, non-dependend between each other
Focus on results (output) compared to efforts (input)
GAI goal: measure the attractiveness of a Country, critical element to evaluate its development capability
INSIDE OUTSIDE
Capability to retain resources alreadyin the Country
Capability to attract resources notyet in the Country
THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX WAS ASCERTAINED BY MEANS OF AN INDEPENDENT STATISTICAL AUDIT PERFORMED BY THE JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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We have identified 4 attributes to define a Country’s attractiveness
Allows the circulation of economic and human resources
Promotes scientific and technologic progress for both companies and citizens
Ensure the correct functioning of capital market, products market and labor market
Owns distinctive and valuable assets with a
strong positioning in the mind map (business
community and public opinion)
Openness
Innovation
Efficiency
Endowment
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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... And identified the characteristics of a Country’s sustainability
Has sound macro-economics,
institutional and social
fundamentals
Reactsadequatelyto shocks
High life standards
and environmentstandards
Resilience(+)
Vulnerability(-)
Reacts to/absorbs shocks and/or crisis or uncertainty periods and is capable to positively adapt itself to changes, adjusting institutional, social and economic structures and models
1.
2. Is exposed to negative impacts coming from harmful situations/events (internal or external), because of its intrinsic economic, social and organizational characteristics
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
37
Global Attractiveness Index (GAI) Structure
aa
Innovation
Openness
Endowment
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS
INDEX
Sustainability Index(IS)
Positioning Index(IP)
Vulnerability
Resilience
Efficiency
Dinamicity Index(ID)
Δ Innovation
Δ Openness
Δ Endowment
Δ Efficiency
A
B
C
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
38
Attractiveness Key Performance Indicator identified
Openness Innovation Efficiency Endowment Resilience Vulnerability
(FDI flows +
Country’s
investments
abroad) on world
total
(Export+Import),
on world total
(Foreign tourists
+ national
tourists travelling
abroad) on total
population
Foreign College
Students on
young pop.
Number of
immigrants on
total pop.
Employees in
high-tech
sectors on total
employees
Export of high-
tech goods on
world total
Internet users
as a share of
population
ICT
Development
Index
Number of
scientific
publications on
world total
Unemployment
rate
Logistics
Performance
Index
TFP
Total Tax Rate
Rule of Law
Index
GDP on world
total
Gross National
Product per-
capita
Gross Fixed
Investments on
national GDP
Index of Natural
and Cultural
endowment
Number of
graduates on
world total
Human
Development
Index
Global Peace
Index
Life expectancy
at birth
World Giving
Index
Average number
of years of
schooling
Debt/GDP
Inflation rate
Market
concentration
index
Number of
people killed by
natural disasters
(on 1,000
people, in the
last 3 years)
Number of
suicides, % of
total population
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
39
GAI
Rank 2016
GAI
Score 2016
Country
Dinamicity
Positioning
Sustainability
US 1 100,0
Germany 2 99,6
Japan 3 98,9
Canada 4 98,1
Singapore 5 97,7
UK 6 90,4
Australia 7 88,6
The Netherlands 8 86,9
South Korea 9 85,8
China 10 85,7
Switzerland 11 83,9
France 12 82,8
Hong Kong 13 80,9
Italy 14 73,0
Austria 15 71,8
Denmark 16 71,8
Russia 17 71,0
Sweden 18 70,2
Spain 19 68,6
Ireland 20 66,4
Critical
High
Medium
Low
Legend
The Global Attractiveness Index 2016
From 1=min to 100=max
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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GAI reflects attractiveness
Global Attractiveness Index and Gross Fixed Investments(Gross Fixed Capital Formation, bln.US$), 2015, OECD Countries
N.B. US outlier
Germany
Japan
Canada
UK
South Korea
The Netherlands
Australia
Switzerland
France
Italy
Austria
Denmark
Sweden
Spain
Ireland
Norway
Luxembourg
Belgium
Finland
Czech Rep.
New ZelandPoland
Iceland
Mexico
Estonia
Chile Israel
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia
Turkey
Portugal
Latvia
Greece
-1E+11
1E+11
3E+11
5E+11
7E+11
9E+11
1,1E+12
0,200 0,250 0,300 0,350 0,400 0,450 0,500 0,55010030 807040 50 60 90 GAI Index
(1=min; 100=max)
US
1.000
800
600
400
200
GFCF (bln.$)
0
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016
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Index
Introduction
Why investments are strategic for Europe
Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
Our recommendations
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Globally, Countries manage their image and their positioning in rankings
Country Action
Positioning
Ease of Doing Business 2016 (out of 189)
World CompetitivenessIndex 2016 (out of 140)
Singapore“Mr Ranking” (representative of the Government)
1 (since 10 following years) 2 (since 5 following years)
Filippine Government’s EODB-Task Force103 (+35 positions in thepast 2 years)
47 (+12 positions in the past2 years)
Malesia Government’s PEMUDAH-Task Force18 (in the top-20 in the past5 years)
18 (in the top-25 in the past5 years)
IndiaMinistry of Trade and Industry Task force
130 (+12 positions in 1 year) 55 (+16 positions in 1 year)
Irlanda National Competitiveness Council17 (in the top-20 in the past5 years)
24 (in the top-30 in the past5 years)
Danimarca Danish Business Autorithy3 (in the top-5 in the past 5 years)
12 (in the top-12 in the past5 years)
USA Council on Jobs and Competiveness*7 (in the top-7 in the past 10 years)
3 (in the top-5 in the past 5 years)
(*) With private oustanding Institutions (Universities, companies, etc.); Council Chairman is appointed by The President of the USA
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We have developed 5 recommendations for Italy
National divisionto manage
Country-rankings
Improve data quality and availability
Re-design «Country Image»
Abroad IntegratedCommunication
Strategy
Developinternationaladvocacy and sensibilization
activities
1.
2.
3.4.
5.National policy to manage Country-Image
Monitoring Country ranking
Action on critical KPIs defining priorities
Watchdog on data quality
Technical Webinars
Awareness meetings
Vademecum on activated Country reforms
National brand steering committee
Multidisciplinary Task force
International mediacampaigns
Viral social initiatives
Increase of Italy contact points*
Showcase events
(*) InvestinItaly website, Embassy as Italy “sales department“, Culture Institutes
«Truth» campaign on international rankings
Univocal definition of Country’s competitiveness
Measuring of new KPIs, as of today not available
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"Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say"
William Watt
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When you believe to be perfect it means you're finished
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Valerio De Molli
Managing Partner, The European House - Ambrosetti
Website: www.ambrosetti.eu
E-mail: [email protected]
Twitter: @ValerioDeMolli
Thank you for your attention