tech insights 2016 uv day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · mario corsi (ceo, abb italia)...

46
© 2016 The European House - Ambrosetti S.p.A. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. This document is property of TEH-A. It may not be reproduced, memorized for storage in an electronic data base or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or other), in whole or in part, without the express written consent of TEH-A. Milan, 6 th October, 2016 TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX The true measure of a Country's attractiveness Valerio De Molli Managing Partner The European House - Ambrosetti

Upload: trannhan

Post on 17-Feb-2019

215 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

© 2016 The European House - Ambrosetti S.p.A. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. This document is property of TEH-A. It may not bereproduced, memorized for storage in an electronic data base or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic,mechanical, photocopying, recording or other), in whole or in part, without the express written consent of TEH-A.

Milan, 6th October, 2016

TECH INSIGHTS 2016UV Day

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEXThe true measure of a Country's attractiveness

Valerio De MolliManaging Partner The European House - Ambrosetti

Page 2: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

2

Index

Introduction

Why investments are strategic for Europe

Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

Page 3: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

3

The European House – AmbrosettiOur figures, our successes

200

PEOPLETHINK TANK

301°

(*) In the University of Pennsylvania’s 2015 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report

EVENTS

300

Organized meetings

and gatherings

yearly

EXPERTS

2.000

National and international

experts involved in

per year

10.000

MANAGER

Accompanied in their

search for growth and

development

Over 20STUDIES AND RESEARCHES

Addressed to Italian and

international institutions

per year

In cross-border M&A

operations, with its affiliate

K-Finance

CONSULTING FIRM

50

YEARS

Working alongside

entrepreneurs to help them

grow

1st in Italy, 4th

in Europe and in the top 20

internationally (*)

400

CLIENTS

Served in consulting

per year

Demonstrating their passion

and commitment

With entrepreneurial

families

GOVERNANCE PACTS

COUNTRIES

12

Direct presence or partnership

Page 4: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

4

Our Mantra

WITHOUT INVESTMENTS, THERE ARE NO JOBS, WITHOUT JOBS, THERE IS NO GROWTH,

WITHOUT GROWTH, THERE IS NO FUTURE!

Page 5: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

5

Index

Introduction

Why investments are strategic for Europe

Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

Page 6: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

6

Research and Innovation are essential drivers for growth: R&D expenditures are strongly correlated with GDP growth

R&D expenditure and GDP growth(Avg. growth rate and % change), 2000-2014, selected EU and non EU Countries

R² = 0,724

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

GD

P (

avg.

gro

wth

rat

e, 2

00

0-2

01

4)

R&D Investments (% change, 2000-2014)

South Korea

Turkey

Estonia

China

Israel

Italy

United States

DenmarkJapan

GermanyFranceNon EU countries

EU countries

Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank and OECD data, 2016

Page 7: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

7

R² = 0,9005

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Exp

ort

(%

ch

ange

, 20

00

-20

14

)

R&D Investments (% change, 2000-2014)

An increase in R&D expenditures is also positively correlated with increase in export value

R&D expenditure and Export growth(% change), 2000-2014, selected EU and non EU Countries

Non EU countries

EU countries

Estonia

China

Turkey

South Korea

Poland

IrelandJaoan

USFrance

Italy

Germany

Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016

Page 8: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

8

EU’s role as leading investment hub is shrinking, but still remains the largest

31.5%

22.0%

6.3%

4.4%

19.9%

EU-28

USA

Hong Kong

China

Singapore

Brazil

Switzerland

Canada

Australia

Russia

Others

2006 2014

World stock: €18.5 trillionWorld stock: €10.8 trillion

Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD data, 2016

World FDI stocks(%), 2006 and 2014

Page 9: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

9

The “investability” of EU is highly fragmented and this is unlikely to change significantly without UK

(*) No available data for 2014, latest data available

GFC

FFD

I sto

ck

Gross Fixed Capital Formation and FDI stock in the EU-28(% of EU-28 total value), 2014

Legend:

Top 10

Middle 8

Bottom 10

Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD and World Bank, 2016

Page 10: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

10

EU suffers more than others the post-crisis

FDI inflows as % of GDP(selected countries, average)

Delta post-precrisis [p.p.] +1.10 +0.69 -0.32 +0.82 -1.54 -1.43 -0.09 -0.04

Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD data, 2016

Page 11: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

11

Index

Introduction

Why investments are strategic for Europe

Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

Mission and objectives of the project

Page 12: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

12

The rational behind the Global Attractiveness Index

International rankings on competitiveness have a relevant weight:

In steering companies decision and public policies

In positioning a Country-System in the international community

Considering the most relevant international rankings (World Bank, World Economic Forum, IMD, etc.), in the last 10 years Italy ranked in the last positions compared to other developed Countries and often behind few developing countries

Even considering Italian criticalities, the above mentioned rankings are not in line with other factual evidences

Page 13: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

13

Italy is 25th in the world considering FDIs flows

China1

Hong Kong2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

USA

UK

Singapore

Brazil

Canada

Australia

India

The Netherlands

2014 flows(bln$, current prices)

Vs. 2013 2014 flows(bln$, current prices)

Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD data, 2016

20

Chile

Spain

Mexico

Indonesia

Switzerland

Russian Fed.

Finland

Colombia

France

Poland

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

129

103

92

72

68

62

54

52

34

30

23

23

23

23

22

21

19

16

15

14

Vs. 2013

25 Italy 11

Page 14: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

14

Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs), stock 2014 and % GDP 2014

The gap with benchmark Countries is significant: stock

% GDP 2014

Stock 2014 bln $

56.4 19.3 25.6 17.351.4

1,633

745 729 722

374

Regno Unito Germania Francia Spagna Italia

Italian Gap 345% 99% 95% 93%

Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD data, 2016

United Kingdom Germany France Spain Italy

Page 15: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

15

Advisory Board

Ambrogio Bollini (Supply Senior Vice President, Toyota Material Handling Europe)

Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia)

Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas)

Enrico Giovannini (Full Professor of Economic Statistics, Università Di Roma “Tor

Vergata”, former President ISTAT and Minister of Labour and Social Policies)

Matteo Marini (Chairman, ABB Italia)

Leonardo Salcerini (CEO, Toyota Material Handling Italy)

Angelo Trocchia (Chairman and CEO, Unilever Italy)

Valerio De Molli (CEO, The European House - Ambrosetti)

Page 16: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

16

Objectives of the project

1. Analyze the methodologies applied by main international rankings and highlight their strengths and weaknesses

2. Build an innovative and reliable index on Country-attractiveness (Global Attractiveness Index - GAI)

3. Identify attractiveness’ Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and set up an interpretative model for Italy (“Tableau de Bord”)

4. Identify and analyze the best practices to manage a Country’s image and the positioning in international rankings

5. Provide policy recommendations and operative proposals for an effective strategy in order to improve Italy’s image and attractiveness

Page 17: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

17

Index

Introduction

Why investments are strategic for Europe

Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

The distortions of other rankings

Page 18: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

18

Italy position: competitiveness indexes

Ease of Doing Business Index 2016

(189 Countries)

(World Bank)

45thItaly

Global Competitiveness Index 2015-2016

(140 Countries)

(World Economic Forum)

12thMacedonia

18thMalaysia

43thItaly

18thMalaysia

31thCzech Rep.

World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2015

(61 Countries)

(IMD)

38thItaly

14thMalaysia

16thIreland

19thIceland

32thMauritius

32thThailand

35tyChile

29thCzech Rep.

30thThailand

38thMexico 37thIndonesia 34tyKazakhstan

Page 19: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

19

Italy position: specific areas (1/2)

Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index

2016 (40 Countries)

(Deloitte)

28thItaly

Global Talent Competitiveness Index

2015-2016 (109 Countries)

(INSEAD)

8thMexico

14thThailand

41stItaly

17thIceland

26thSlovenia

Corruption Perception Index 2015 (168 Paesi)

(Transparency International)

61°postoItaly

21°postoUruguay

23°postoChile

15thPoland

16thTurkey

28thMalta

32tyCyprus

28°postoBotswana

44°postoRwanda

17thMalaysia 39thBarbados 57°postoGhana

Corruption Perceptions Index 2015

(168 Countries)

(Transparency International)

61st

21st

23rd

28th

44th

57th

Page 20: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

20

Italy position: specific areas (2/2)

Social Progress Index 2015

(133 Countries)

(Social Progress Imperative)

31stItaly

Global Innovation Index 2015

(141 Countries)

(INSEAD)

19thSlovenia

22ndCzech Rep.

31stItaly

8thIreland

23rdEstonia

Global Peace Index 2015

(162 Countries)

(Institute for Economics and Peace)

36thItaly

12thIreland

18thBhutan

24thUruguay

26thChile

24thCzech Rep.

28thSlovenia

19thPoland

25thMauritius

28thCosta Rica 30thPortugal 34tyCosta Rica

Press Freedom Index 2016

(180 Countries)

(Reporters without Borders)

77thItaly

6thCosta Rica

17thNamibia

20thUruguay

22ndSuriname

42tyBurkina Faso

Page 21: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

21

Correlations exists between high positions in the rankings and the nationality of the Institution conducing the ranking

In these rankings Italy is always places in the middle of the ranking, in some case places even worse

Country Ranking

Index Institute Country US Switz. Germany France Australia Italy

Ease of Doing Business WB USA 7th 26th 15th 27th 13th 45th

Global Competitiveness Index WEF Switerland 3rd 1st 4th 22nd 21st 43th

World Competitiveness Scoreboard IMD Switerland 1st 4th 10th 32ty 18th 38th

Global Peace Index IEP Australia 94st 5th 16th 45th 9th 36th

Social Progress Index SPI USA 16th 3rd 14st 21st 10th 31st

Corruption Perception Index TI Germany 17th 7th 10th 25th 13th° 61st

Global Talent Competitiveness Index INSEAD France 4th 1st 14th 22° 13th 41st

Global Manufacturing Index Deloitte USA 2nd 12th 3rd 22nd 21st 28th

Global Innovation Index INSEAD France 5th 1st 12th 21st 17th 31st

Page 22: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

22

205,3

258,1

338,1

404,8

888,5

2141,2

Repubblica Ceca

Cile

Malesia

Tailandia

Indonesia

Italia

The comparison between Italy and some country that ranks better poses doubts on the validity of these rankings (1/3)

Italy is 8th globally considering GDP, 9th considering export and 13th consideringGFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation)

GDP 2014(bln. US$; market prices)

Export 2014 (bln US$)

86,64

171,92

198,82

249,75

280,11

632,18

Cile

Repubblica Ceca

Indonesia

Malesia

Tailandia

Italia

Gross fixedinvestments (bln US$)

51,3

56,8

87,8

99,7

289,4

355,7

Repubblica Ceca

Cile

Malesia

Tailandia

Indonesia

Italia

Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016

Global Competitiveness Index 2015-2016

(140 Countries)

(World Economic Forum)

Italy Italy Italy

Indonesia

Indonesia

Indonesia

Thailand

Thailand

Thailand

Malaysia

Malaysia

Malaysia

Chile

Chile

Chile

Czech Rep. Czech Rep.

Czech Rep.

43thItaly

18thMalaysia

31thCzechRep.

32thThailand

35tyChile

37thIndonesia

Page 23: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

23

Scientific publications, 1996-2015 (1,000)

Italy is 3th globally considering number of scientific publications and 4th in Europe considering the value of production in high tech sectors

Global Innovation Index 2015 (141 Countries)

(INSEAD)

High-tech sectors, value of production (€ bln.)

1.794

2.269

2.362

11.284

38.903

45.188

Estonia

Slovenia

Portogallo

Repubblica Ceca

Irlanda

Italia

28.660

71.408

150.552

214.838

237.910

1.318.466

Estonia

Slovenia

Irlanda

Portogallo

Repubblica Ceca

Italia

Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016

The comparison between Italy and some country that ranks better poses doubts on the validity of these rankings (2/3)

Italy

Czech Rep.

Portugal

Ireland

Slovenia

Estonia

Italy

Ireland

Czech Rep.

Portugal

Slovenia

Estonia

31stItaly

8thIreland

23rdEstonia

24thCzechRep.

28thSlovenia

30thPortugal

Page 24: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

24

The comparison between Italy and some country that ranks better poses doubts on the validity of these rankings (3/3)

Manufacturing, export 2014

(bln. US$)

Manufacturing, AV2014

(bln US$)

77,4

100,3

112,1

142,1

229,2

329,7

Malesia

Polonia

Tailandia

Turchia

Messico

Italia

144,7

123,7

216,6

227,6

311,2

528,7

Malesia

Turchia

Polonia

Tailandia

Messico

Italia

Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index

2016 (40 Countries)

(Deloitte)

Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016

Italy

Mexico

Turkey

Thailand

Poland

Malaysia

Italy

Mexico

Thailand

Poland

Turkey

Malaysia

Italy is 4th globally considering the AV of manufacturing industry and 7th globallyconsidering manufacturing export

28thItaly

8thMexico

14thThailand

15thPoland

16thTurkey

17thMalaysia

Page 25: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

25

We have analysed > 80 Country-indexes detecting few criticalities

Qualitative survey

Weighting

“Optimal” models

Non-homogeneousdata

“Critical Mass”

Static

Representativeness

Often are poorly statistically representative and subjective, alsoaccording those who provide answers

Introducing subjective elements

The functioning model of the Country where the Institution providingthe ranking is based conditions the parameters and the comparison

Different aggregation criteria are used for non-comparable data

The absolute dimension of a Country is not taken into account

The sustainability of the positioning in the middle-term is not takenin account

KPI not fully representative of the phenomenon to be measured and the reference context is not taken in account and the KPI’sjudgement is too negative/positive

Page 26: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

26

Few other examples of distorsions detected

Page 27: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

27

Excessive use of survey: the case of Ease of Doing Business (1/2)

QUALITATIVE SURVEY

10* topics12 questionnaires in

189 Countries

Starting a Business (1)

Dealing with Construction Permits (1)

Getting Electricity (3)

Registering Property (1)

Getting Credit (1)

Protecting Minority Investors (1)

Paying Taxes (1)

Trading Across Borders (1)

Enforcing Contracts (1)

Resolving Insolvency (1)

In 2016 took part to the survey 11,400 entrepreneurs, professionals e civil servants

The number of contributors (and consequently of questionnaires available) changes for each Country and topic

Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016

(*) For each area the World Bank proposes few questionnaires; the number is indicated in the brackets

Methodological bias :

1. Questionnaires are based on the representation of a business case, used for each surveyed economy

2. The legal entity of the companies surveyed is the one of LTD or the equivalent, in each countries, of companies of the same dimension

3. It is supposed that companies have all the information required to complete each field of the survey

4. The ranking do not consider the socio-economic situation of the country

Page 28: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

28

Excessive use of survey: the case of Ease of Doing Business (2/2)

Top-20 Countries for numberof contributors to the survey

N. Of contributes*

India 370

Brazil 356

Russian Federation 316

Turkey 241

Nigeria 232

Mexico 215

Malaysia 204

Indonesia 188

Ukraine 188

Italy 187

Dominican Republic 166

Kazakhstan 152

Poland 150

Kuwait 141

China 139

Romania 137

Egypt 134

Bulgaria 133

Croatia 130

Greece 130

PwC Italy Alemani e Associati Studio dell'Avvocato Antich Studio Legale Associato ad Ashurst LLP Penal Court of Rome Civil Law Notary, Lawyer Studio Legale Beltramo Spediporto - Associazione Spedizionieri Corrieri e

Trasportatori di Genova BDA Studio Legale Raynaud and Partners - Studio Legale Almaviva S.p.A. - Direzione Affari Legali Studio Corno - member of Russell Bedford International Tonucci & Partners, in alliance with Mayer Brown LLP Il Punto Real Estate Advisor Orsingher Ortu – Avvocati Associati Legance - Studio Legale Associato NCTM - Studio Legale Associato Cocuzza e Associati Portolano Cavallo Studio Legale .........

Some Italian contributor

(*) Number of contributions changes not only accordingly to the Country, but also, in the same Country, accordingly to different fields of the survey. For Italy, 153 contributors have been mapped. In 2016 they have answered to 187 questionnaires

10° place

Few companies and scarcely representatives

5% of the total

Page 29: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

29

Excessive use of survey and qualitative indexes taken from other rankings: the Global Competitiveness Index

Several rankings use KPI taken from other indexes or that are the final result of other Country-indexes

Final results of these rankings are unclean and unreliable because of methodological choices adopted

An example is the Global Competitiveness Index (WEF), using for its 12 pillars some KPI taken from other sources (e.g. Ease of Doing Business from the World Bank):

12 pillars

114 variables, of these 6 from Ease of Doing Business (WB) and 6 from the World Economic Outlook (IMF)

80 variables are the results of qualitative surveys

In Italy, the rate of respondents of the 1,000 questionnaires submitted each year is between 8% and 10%

Page 30: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

30

0,5

1,1

1,2

1,8

1,9

2,0

2,1

2,2

2,2

3,0

3,0

3,3

3,6

3,9

6,2

Italia

Belgio

Grecia

Austria

Lussemburgo

Francia

Portogallo

Spagna

Danimarca

Regno Unito

Irlanda

Germania

Paesi Bassi

Svezia

Finlandia

Expenditures in prevention(% of current public healthcare expenditures)

4.1 accordingAgenas detections

OECD data compares Countries with different healthcare systemsand different financing models

In Italy, public expenditures in prevention are equal to 4.1% on total healthcare public expenditures. It would make our Country above the UE average and above Germany, France and Northern Europe Countries

4.1

"Apple with Oranges": the case of healthcare expenditures

Sweden

The Netherlands

Real ItalianValue

Finland

Germany

Ireland

UK

Denmark

Spain

Portugal

France

Luxembourg

Austria

Greece

Belgium

Italy

Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration on OECD data, 2016

Page 31: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

31

Why Italy is still alive and kicking

Source: The European House – Ambrosetti elaboration, 2016

1. Italy is the fist European country for number of SMEs - 403,000, double the number in France (207,000) and Germany (204,000) and nearly double the sum of the Spain (161,000) and the United Kingdom (124,000) together

2. Italy is the first European country for average number of references in international publications per researcher (0,61 vs 0,40 of the UK and 0,32 of the France)

3. Italy is the second European country for Value Added produced in the manufacturing industry (216 Billion Euros in 2014)

4. Italy is one of just five countries in the world (along with China, Germany, Japan and South Korea) that is able to boast a manufacturing surplus of more than 100 Billion Dollars

5. The Italian gross trade balance is positive since 2012

6. Italy is one of the few G-20 countries with a positive trade balance in the manufacturing sector

7. In the Eurozone our country remains the favourite destination of non-European tourists (mainly from China, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Australia, United States and Canada)

8. Household savings remain high in comparison with other developed economies and families’ private wealth is more high

9. Italy is the world’s top country for Heritage & Culture (51 out of 1001 UNESCO World Heritage Sites)

10. Despite counterfeiting and unfair trade practices from “Italian-sounding” products, Italy is on the podium of world trade in agri-food products

Page 32: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

32

Index

Introduction

Why investments are strategic for Europe

Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

The methodology of the Global Attractiveness Index

Page 33: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

33

The objectives defined to build the Global Attractiveness Index - GAI

Annual update, allowed by the usage of variables (KPI) periodicallydetected from main international institutionsREPLICABILITY

OBJECTIVITY

SOUNDNESS

MEANINGFULNESS

Principally based on quantitative and objective variables coming from main international database

Few proxy indicators, non-dependend between each other

Focus on results (output) compared to efforts (input)

GAI goal: measure the attractiveness of a Country, critical element to evaluate its development capability

INSIDE OUTSIDE

Capability to retain resources alreadyin the Country

Capability to attract resources notyet in the Country

Page 34: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

34

The objectives defined to build the Global Attractiveness Index - GAI

Annual update, allowed by the usage of variables (KPI) periodicallydetected from main international institutionsREPLICABILITY

OBJECTIVITY

SOUNDNESS

MEANINGFULNESS

Principally based on quantitative and objective variables coming from main international database

Few proxy indicators, non-dependend between each other

Focus on results (output) compared to efforts (input)

GAI goal: measure the attractiveness of a Country, critical element to evaluate its development capability

INSIDE OUTSIDE

Capability to retain resources alreadyin the Country

Capability to attract resources notyet in the Country

THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX WAS ASCERTAINED BY MEANS OF AN INDEPENDENT STATISTICAL AUDIT PERFORMED BY THE JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Page 35: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

35

We have identified 4 attributes to define a Country’s attractiveness

Allows the circulation of economic and human resources

Promotes scientific and technologic progress for both companies and citizens

Ensure the correct functioning of capital market, products market and labor market

Owns distinctive and valuable assets with a

strong positioning in the mind map (business

community and public opinion)

Openness

Innovation

Efficiency

Endowment

Page 36: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

36

... And identified the characteristics of a Country’s sustainability

Has sound macro-economics,

institutional and social

fundamentals

Reactsadequatelyto shocks

High life standards

and environmentstandards

Resilience(+)

Vulnerability(-)

Reacts to/absorbs shocks and/or crisis or uncertainty periods and is capable to positively adapt itself to changes, adjusting institutional, social and economic structures and models

1.

2. Is exposed to negative impacts coming from harmful situations/events (internal or external), because of its intrinsic economic, social and organizational characteristics

Page 37: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

37

Global Attractiveness Index (GAI) Structure

aa

Innovation

Openness

Endowment

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS

INDEX

Sustainability Index(IS)

Positioning Index(IP)

Vulnerability

Resilience

Efficiency

Dinamicity Index(ID)

Δ Innovation

Δ Openness

Δ Endowment

Δ Efficiency

A

B

C

Page 38: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

38

Attractiveness Key Performance Indicator identified

Openness Innovation Efficiency Endowment Resilience Vulnerability

(FDI flows +

Country’s

investments

abroad) on world

total

(Export+Import),

on world total

(Foreign tourists

+ national

tourists travelling

abroad) on total

population

Foreign College

Students on

young pop.

Number of

immigrants on

total pop.

Employees in

high-tech

sectors on total

employees

Export of high-

tech goods on

world total

Internet users

as a share of

population

ICT

Development

Index

Number of

scientific

publications on

world total

Unemployment

rate

Logistics

Performance

Index

TFP

Total Tax Rate

Rule of Law

Index

GDP on world

total

Gross National

Product per-

capita

Gross Fixed

Investments on

national GDP

Index of Natural

and Cultural

endowment

Number of

graduates on

world total

Human

Development

Index

Global Peace

Index

Life expectancy

at birth

World Giving

Index

Average number

of years of

schooling

Debt/GDP

Inflation rate

Market

concentration

index

Number of

people killed by

natural disasters

(on 1,000

people, in the

last 3 years)

Number of

suicides, % of

total population

Page 39: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

39

GAI

Rank 2016

GAI

Score 2016

Country

Dinamicity

Positioning

Sustainability

US 1 100,0

Germany 2 99,6

Japan 3 98,9

Canada 4 98,1

Singapore 5 97,7

UK 6 90,4

Australia 7 88,6

The Netherlands 8 86,9

South Korea 9 85,8

China 10 85,7

Switzerland 11 83,9

France 12 82,8

Hong Kong 13 80,9

Italy 14 73,0

Austria 15 71,8

Denmark 16 71,8

Russia 17 71,0

Sweden 18 70,2

Spain 19 68,6

Ireland 20 66,4

Critical

High

Medium

Low

Legend

The Global Attractiveness Index 2016

From 1=min to 100=max

Page 40: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

40

GAI reflects attractiveness

Global Attractiveness Index and Gross Fixed Investments(Gross Fixed Capital Formation, bln.US$), 2015, OECD Countries

N.B. US outlier

Germany

Japan

Canada

UK

South Korea

The Netherlands

Australia

Switzerland

France

Italy

Austria

Denmark

Sweden

Spain

Ireland

Norway

Luxembourg

Belgium

Finland

Czech Rep.

New ZelandPoland

Iceland

Mexico

Estonia

Chile Israel

Slovenia

Hungary

Slovakia

Turkey

Portugal

Latvia

Greece

-1E+11

1E+11

3E+11

5E+11

7E+11

9E+11

1,1E+12

0,200 0,250 0,300 0,350 0,400 0,450 0,500 0,55010030 807040 50 60 90 GAI Index

(1=min; 100=max)

US

1.000

800

600

400

200

GFCF (bln.$)

0

Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016

Page 41: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

41

Index

Introduction

Why investments are strategic for Europe

Global Attractiveness Index: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

Our recommendations

Page 42: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

42

Globally, Countries manage their image and their positioning in rankings

Country Action

Positioning

Ease of Doing Business 2016 (out of 189)

World CompetitivenessIndex 2016 (out of 140)

Singapore“Mr Ranking” (representative of the Government)

1 (since 10 following years) 2 (since 5 following years)

Filippine Government’s EODB-Task Force103 (+35 positions in thepast 2 years)

47 (+12 positions in the past2 years)

Malesia Government’s PEMUDAH-Task Force18 (in the top-20 in the past5 years)

18 (in the top-25 in the past5 years)

IndiaMinistry of Trade and Industry Task force

130 (+12 positions in 1 year) 55 (+16 positions in 1 year)

Irlanda National Competitiveness Council17 (in the top-20 in the past5 years)

24 (in the top-30 in the past5 years)

Danimarca Danish Business Autorithy3 (in the top-5 in the past 5 years)

12 (in the top-12 in the past5 years)

USA Council on Jobs and Competiveness*7 (in the top-7 in the past 10 years)

3 (in the top-5 in the past 5 years)

(*) With private oustanding Institutions (Universities, companies, etc.); Council Chairman is appointed by The President of the USA

Page 43: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

43

We have developed 5 recommendations for Italy

National divisionto manage

Country-rankings

Improve data quality and availability

Re-design «Country Image»

Abroad IntegratedCommunication

Strategy

Developinternationaladvocacy and sensibilization

activities

1.

2.

3.4.

5.National policy to manage Country-Image

Monitoring Country ranking

Action on critical KPIs defining priorities

Watchdog on data quality

Technical Webinars

Awareness meetings

Vademecum on activated Country reforms

National brand steering committee

Multidisciplinary Task force

International mediacampaigns

Viral social initiatives

Increase of Italy contact points*

Showcase events

(*) InvestinItaly website, Embassy as Italy “sales department“, Culture Institutes

«Truth» campaign on international rankings

Univocal definition of Country’s competitiveness

Measuring of new KPIs, as of today not available

Page 44: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

44

"Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say"

William Watt

Page 45: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

45

When you believe to be perfect it means you're finished

Page 46: TECH INSIGHTS 2016 UV Day - d3alc7xa4w7z55.cloudfront.net · Mario Corsi (CEO, ABB Italia) Ferruccio De Bortoli (Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas) Enrico Giovannini

GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness

46

Valerio De Molli

Managing Partner, The European House - Ambrosetti

Website: www.ambrosetti.eu

E-mail: [email protected]

Twitter: @ValerioDeMolli

Thank you for your attention