technical assistance consultant’s report · 2014. 9. 29. · technical assistance consultant’s...

Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.

Project Number: 43062 April 2012

Bangladesh: Capacity Building and Support to the Transport Sector Coordination Wing of the Planning Commission (Financed by the Technical Assistance Special Fund)

Appendices

Prepared by MMM Group in association with BCL Associates Limited

Vancouver, BC Canada

For Ministry of Planning (Planning Division)

Asian Development Bank

TA 7388‐BANGLADESH Capacity Building and Support to the Transport Coordination

Wing of the Planning Commission, Bangladesh CONTRACT NO: COSO/41‐580

APPENDICES

A

Submitted By

a

in association with

BCL Associates Limited

April 2012

TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission

Final Report: April 2012 6011001.000

LIST OF APPENDIX

Appendix A: The TSGD data catalogue

Appendix B‐1: Roads and Highway (RHD) Organization Structure

Appendix B‐2: Bangladesh Railway (BR) Organization Structure

Appendix B‐3: Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA) Organization Structure

Appendix B‐4: Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Corporation (BIWTC) Organization Structure

Appendix B‐5: Bangladesh Bridge Authority (BBA) Organization Structure

AppendixB‐6: Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) Organization Structure

Appendix B‐7: Dhaka Transport Coordination Board (DTCB) Organization Structure

Appendix C: 1st Workshop/presentation slides

Appendix D: 2nd Workshop/presentation slides

Appendix E: Conceptual Project Appraisal Framework for Bangladesh Railway

Appendix F: Conceptual Project Appraisal Framework for Bangladesh IWT


Final Report: April 2012

6011001.000

Appendix: A The TSGD Data Catalogue

1.1.1.1 Major Rivers of Bangladesh Owner: WARPO

Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class

Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb

Feature Dataset: WARPO

Feature Class: Major_River

Geometry Type: Line

Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984

Abstract: A spatial data layer containing the major rivers of Bangladesh. It also

includes the trans-boundary Rivers and rivers having width equal to or above 100m

including BWDB gauge stations and SWMC Model Rivers. Major river system of

Bangladesh captured by FAP19 and NWRD from SPOT89 image and LANDSAT97

image.

1.1.1.2 Perennial Waterbodies, 1989 Owner: WARPO




Feature Class: Perennial_wbsbd89

Geometry Type: Polygon


Abstract: This spatial data layer representing the location of perennial water bodies of

Bangladesh which was captured by NWRD from SPOT89.

1.1.1.3 Main Rivers, 1997 Owner: WARPO




Feature Class: Main_River_97

Geometry Type: Line


Abstract: The main rivers are defined as the Ganges and the Brahmaputra from the

points

where they enter the country to the Padma confluence, the Padma itself, and the

Meghna

from the confluence of the Kushyara and Surma to, and including, the lower Meghna

estuary. Main river system of Bangladesh captured by FAP19 and NWRD from

SPOT89 and LANDSAT97 image.

1.1.1.4 Detail Rivers 97 Owner: WARPO




Feature Class: Detail_river_97

Geometry Type: Line


Abstract: A spatial data layer containing rivers, channels and khals of Bangladesh

along with the nomenclature of BWDB, BIWTA and SWMC (for Model river). Detail

river system of Bangladesh updated from LANDSAT97 along the changed river

course for the whole country by NWRD

1.1.1.5 River Network Owner: WARPO



Feature Dataset: NationWide

Feature Class: River_Network

Geometry Type: Line


Abstract: Based on Major Rivers, Perennial Water bodies, Main Rivers and Detail

Rivers River network data is prepared in TSCW

1.1.1.6 Agriculture Land Use Owner: WARPO




Feature Class: BD_Landuse



Abstract: A generalized spatial data layer containing agricultural landuse covering the

dominant crop and its rotation over the season

1.1.1.7 Flood Regime Land Type Owner: WARPO




Feature Class: Flood_Regime_Land



Abstract: A spatial data layer showing average floods depth during the monsoon

season.

Flood regime landtype generated from a GIS analysis involving digital elevation

model and soil classification dataset by FAP19

1.1.1.8 Draft Restriction Map of BIWTA 1999 Owner: WARPO




Feature Class: d010699

Feature Type: Simple

Geometry Type: Line


Abstract: A spatial data layer showing the draft restriction routes of inland waterways

of Bangladesh, Year 1999. Draft restriction routes generated from Draft Restriction

map published by BIWTA in 1999.

1.1.1.9 Location of Inland Waterway Facilities Owner: WARPO




Feature Class: BIWT_Facilities

Geometry Type: Point


Abstract: A spatial data layer presenting the location of the stations that serve inland

water related facilities maintained by Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority

(BIWTA). Location of inland waterway facilities generated by NWRD from Inland

Waterway map published by BIWTA

1.1.1.10 Navigation route 1994-95 generated by BIWTA Owner: WARPO



Feature Dataset: IWT

Feature Class: River_Route

Geometry Type: Line


Abstract: A spatial data layer showing the waterways (Navigation route 1994-95)

demarcated by Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA).

1.1.1.11 BWDB Embankment locations

Owner: WARPO




Feature Class: Embankment_locations

Geometry Type: Line


Abstract: The data layer contains all embankment locations of BWDB (Bangladesh

Water Development Board) FCDI (Flood Control Drainage & Irrigation) Projects

with attribute information. All embankment locations of BWDB FCDI Projects

capturd by NWRD from Inventory of Water Development Systems 1991 published by

BWDB

1.1.1.12 Administrative Headquarters Owner: WARPO




Feature Class: HQ_BD



Abstract: Bangladesh District and Thana Headquarters

1.1.1.13 Rail stations of Bangladesh

Owner: BR



Feature Dataset: BR

Feature Class: Rail_Station_BD



Abstract: A spatial data layer showing the locations of rail stations of the entire

Bangladesh along with other attribute information. Railway station locations of

Bangladesh generated by Bangladesh Railway in 1999 and updated by NWRD

1.1.1.14 Railway Network of Bangladesh

Owner: BR



Feature Dataset: BR

Feature Class: BR_2011

Geometry Type: Line


Abstract: A spatial data layer showing the railway network of the entire railway

system

of Bangladesh along with other attribute information. Rail Line location of

Bangladesh

generated by Bangladesh Railway in 1999 and updated by NWRD.

1.1.1.15 RHD Roads Network of Bangladesh Owner: RHD



Feature Dataset: RHD

Feature Class: RHD_2011

Geometry Type: Line


Abstract: Based on RHD roads network topological correction is made, connectivity

is established and spatial resolution is increased.

1.1.1.16 RHD: Important Location Name Owner: RHD




Feature Class: POI_RHD



1.1.1.17 RHD Ferry Location Owner: RHD




Feature Class: Ferry_Final_RHD



1.1.1.18 RHD Bridge Location Owner: RHD




Feature Class: Bridge_RHD



1.1.1.19 LGED Road network of Bangladesh Owner: LGED



Feature Dataset: LGED

Feature Class: Roads_LGED_BGD

Geometry Type: Line


1.1.1.20 Detail Administrative Boundary Owner: LGED




Feature Class: Boundary_Union,



Abstract: Detail Administrative Boundary of Bangladesh covering International

boundary, Divisional boundary, district boundary, Thana boundary and Union

boundary.





Feature Class: Boundary_Thana



Abstract: Administrative Boundary of Bangladesh covering International boundary,

Divisional boundary, district boundary and Thana boundary.





Feature Class: Boundary_District



Abstract: Detail Administrative Boundary of Bangladesh covering International

boundary, Divisional boundary and district boundary.



6011001.000

Appendix: B Organization Structures



Appendix: B‐1



Appendix: B‐2



Appendix: B‐3



Appendix: B‐4



Appendix: B‐5



Appendix: B‐6



Appendix: B‐7



6011001.000

Appendix: C 1st Workshop Presentation Slides

1

The TA: Capacity Building and Support to TSC Wing of the

Planning Commission:

“Overview”

Maks Alam, P.Eng. (Canada)

MMM Group, Canada

Team Leader, ADB TA-7388-BAN

The TA: An ADB and TSC Wing, PC Initiative

Enhanced capabilities to promote

coordinated, efficient, seamless, and

secure movement of passenger and

freight traffic on the multi-modal

transportation system and across our

international borders.

2

TSC Wing of PC: The Legal Framework

STRP-II

BBS

NLTP•Section and

subsection of 4 and 5

TSC Wing

Draft IMTP

•Multimodal Transport

•Inter Agency Coordination

PID

TSW

TSC Wing: Vision and Mission

STRP-II

BBS

• The vision to ensure effective

and efficient coordination with all transport modes in

accordance with Government

polices documented under NLTP, IMTP, MDGs, NSAPR-II, VISION-

2021 and other economic

policies

• The mission to promote an

efficient but affordable multimodal transport system

3

TSC Wing: Organizational Framework

Movement of DPP: Agencies/Division and PC

STRP-II

BBS

Physical Infrastructure Division

4

TA Objectives

• As Identified in ToRo Promotion of multimodal transport systems

o Enhancement of project appraisal framework

• Consultants Identified (additional)o Set the stage for national framework on

transport data development, integration and

update

o Set the stage for capacity retention and

distribution among all transport sub-sectors to

support NLTP objectives and long-term

planning goals

TA: Beneficiaries

Effective decision driven by policy and supported by facts (total Transparency)

Multimodal Need Assessments and Identification through enhanced capacity and data

TA: “Capacity Building and Support to the TSC Wing, PC”

Outcomes

TSC Wing, PC

Transport Subsectors

Sea, Inland and Land

Ports

DPs (ADB, WB, JICA, USAID)

GOB

(accelerated

funding)

5

The Decision Support

System (DSS) Process

• 1st establish “buy in” multi-

agency co-operation (Box-1)

• 2nd develop strategic national

multimodal GIS and attribute

database (Box-1)

• 3rd introduce and execute on-the-

job training/workshop on

planning plus policy analysis

tools and performance indices

(Box-2)

• 4th deploy the DSS process for

policy maker that are data driven,

multimodal, multi-sector, and

"what if" modal policy sensitive

(Box-3)

BOX-1

BOX-2

BOX-3

TA Results: Total Outputs

Time Scale in Months

6

TA Outputs: Delivery and Retention

• Data, Information and analysis output dissemination using TSC Wing Website, and other digital media

• “Knowledge” exchange “buy-in” sessions among transport sub-sectors and TSC Wing (includes digital exchange via blog, facebook etc.)

• On the job continuous training and mentoring for officials of TSC Wing using analysis tools and software

• Total 12 training courses (one for each transport sub-sector) on multimodal transport demand analysis tools adopted by TSCW under this TA

• TSC Wing participation in inter-ministerial steering committee for transport project co-ordination through “strong partnership”

Capacity Building Issues

“In Bangladesh, the missing links of capacity buildings are

the skills, tools, training, continuing education and

mentoring NOT the talents or policy directives or institutional arrangement. These areas of capacity

building need immediate attention to overcome the vast

transportation planning and policy challenges that the country are experiencing now and in the foreseeable

future”

7

Part -2: Technical Session

Inter-Agency Transport Coordination and Integration for Successful Promotion of

Multimodal System


MMM Group, Canada


8

Road Network Coverage in Bangladesh

RHD

• 21,571 Km of roadso 3,570 km National Highways

o 4,323 km regional roads

o 13,678 km of district roads

• 14,712 bridges (184,00

m total)

• LGED

• 129,793 km of rural

roadso 65,102 paved

o 64,691 unpaved

Rail Network Coverage in Bangladesh

• 2,884 route-kmo 1,838 km meter gauge

o 682 km broad gauge

o 264 km of dual gauge

9

20 Years Rail Development Plans

Water Network Coverage in Bangladesh

• 24, 000 km inland

water wayso 6,000 km year round

o 18,000 km seasonal

• 2 sea portso Chittagong

o Mongla

• 19 inland water ports

• 360 Launch Stations

• 540 Launch Ghat

10

Why Integrated Multimodal Transport?

BBS

Transport Sectors

Tourism

Water Resources

Agriculture

Land useEnergy

Environment

Health“Scarce

recourses

diminishes as

demand for

transport

network supply

increases”

The Induced

Impact on

Resources

Managing the Scarce Resources

BBS

“As government work as provider of the transportation systems, it faces an increasingly

complex challenge of improving safety, mobility and the aesthetics in an environment of constrained resources. Implementing multimodal approach is essential to ensure that the investment of the public

funds are entrusted wisely used to minimize long-term costs in achieving the desired service level objectives.”

11

Multimodal Transport: What is it? How it Works?

BBS

Transport Outlook: National – by Modes

Historical Passenger Traffic Historical Freight Traffic

BBS

12

Transport Outlook: National – by Modes

Passenger Traffic Outlook:2025 Freight Traffic Outlook:2025

BBS

Transport Outlook: Mega City-Dhaka

Year to Year Traffic Change (MT) Future Trend (MT)

BBS

7.1%

8.2%

9.7% 9.6%

11.4%12.1%

14.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

% I

ncr

ease

YEAR

1,200,000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

To

tal

Veh

icle

Nu

mb

er i

n D

hak

a

Th

ou

san

ds

Year

13

Transport Outlook: Port (Chittagong)

Bulk Cargo:2025 Container Cargo: 2025

BBS

Double Growth Triple GrowthDouble Growth

Transport Outlook: Modal Share

Passenger Travel Freight Traffic

BBS

14

Transport Cost by Modes (Dhaka-Ctg. Example)

BBS

Transport Investment Trend

BBS

15

Transport Outlook: Summary

• Both Freight and Passenger traffic are forecasted to be doubled by 2020

• Roads continue to dominate the modal share, creating fierce competition with the depleting agricultural land

• Dhaka city traffic will be doubled by 2020

• The modal share is continue to decline from water and rail transport sectors until the NLTP and IMTP objectives are enforced and practiced.

• Increased in GOB investment in Transport sectorsBBS

What Happens When Volume Doubled? USA Example-Base Case

BBS

16

What Happens When Volume Doubled? USA Example-Future Case

BBS

Transport Priority-TSC Wing

BBS

Guided by NLTP

objective and vision

Driven by National and

Regional Policy AgendaGuided by NLTP



Regional Policy Agenda

17

Transport Priority: Executive Agencies

BBS

Guided by sector specific master plan and objectives

Multimodal Project Priority: U.S. DOT Example

BBS

18

Multimodal Planning Constraints

STRP-II

BBS

• Database (GIS-T, Traffic Demand, Physical

performance and others)

• Analytical tools and software

• Human resources

• Intermodal connectors

• Lack of project co-ordination among subsectors

• Lack of transshipment facilities

• Lack of transport logistic

Multimodal Option: Water Mode

STRP-II

BBS

Mode: Water

• Offer most extensive waterway network in the world

• Most promising but highly neglected• Offer cheapest mode of transportation for bulks (tk 0.99/ton-km)

• Offer positive benefit to water resource management

• Land reclaiming potential through capital dredging management

• Lowest accident rate (250-350 deaths/year-60% due to overloading)• Positive benefit to tourism

• Direct benefit to road sector through the reduction of less time sensitive freight diversion to water

Constraints:• Constrained allocation of funding

• Lack of intermodal connectors

• Lack of transshipment and handling facilities• Siltation/navigable depth

• Database

19

River Management

Freight Volume at Mighty

Mississippi River

Freight Route Opportunities

Mighty Rivers: Bangladesh

Multimodal Options: Rail

STRP-II

BBS

Mode: Rail

• Most promising mode of freight and passenger transportation

• Offer competitive price for freight and passenger• Offer positive benefit to energy, environment and agricultural land

• No option for unplanned track side development

• Safest and most reliable mode of land transportation

• Can significantly reduce road sector overloading by attracting container freight and forestry products.

Constraints:

• Funding

• Rolling stocks• Capacity Shortage (Tracks)


• Lack of TOFC/COFC service to offer door-to-door service• Reliability/Operational

• Database

20

Rail Network Capacity and Tonnage

Rail Capacity Usage Rail Tonnage

BBS

Multimodal Options: Road

STRP-II

BBS

Mode: Roads

• Customer focused and favorable

• Offer door to door service with extensive network coverage• Higher reliability than other modes

• Favorable to poverty reduction and socio-economic benefit

• Highest per ton-km tariff

• Highest accident rate• Adverse effect on energy, carbon emission and environment

• Loss of agricultural lands

Constraints:

• Lands (high cost capacity expansion)

• Exceeding capacity

• Bottleneck at Major Bridges (River crossings)• Price of energy

• High maintenance

• Database

21

Road Network-Traffic volume

2004 Traffic: Road 2025 Traffic: Road

Traffic Simulation:Dhaka-Chittagong Corridor: Roads

BBS

22

Traffic Simulation:Dhaka-Chittagong Corridor: Roads

BBS

Multimodal Options: Ports

STRP-II

BBS

Mode: Ports

• The most important gateway for Bangladesh with 92% of export/import volume

• Strategic location with the potential for serving as regional hub

• Close to south-Asia growth pole having connectivity with Singapore and Colombo ports

• Directly lead Bangladesh in Global competitiveness ( i.e., garments export)

Constraints:

• Lack of multimodal connectivity• Draft limitation for large mother ship

• Unplanned development along the riverside limiting future expansion

• Resource limitations for operation as well as long-term planning and forecasting

• No long-term master plans

• Unable to take full advantage of new container terminals due to administrative bureaucracy

23

Multimodal Options: Ports

BBS

Multimodal Options: Mega City Dhaka

STRP-II

BBS

Multimodal offers most unique opportunity to develop a

true world-class transport system

• The Supplyo Water (Canals and rivers)

o Rail

o Road/expressways

o Air

• The demando Auto

o Transit/bus, BRT

o Commuter rails, MRT

o Boat, water transit

o Rickshaw

o Biking, walking

24

Multimodal Initiatives: Dhaka Context

• The long-range plans (STP)

• Generated and induced traffic

• Downstream/Upstream congestion

• Priority for multimodal connectors

• Parking cost

• System-wide total traffic delays

• Indirect environmental impacts

• Land use impacts (Agriculture)

• Transportation diversity (by mode)

• Per-capita crash risk

• Public fitness and health impacts

• Travelers’ preferences for alternative

modes (trips other than Auto/bus)

• Financial costs to government

• Door to door service

• Vehicle operating costs (fuel,

tolls, tire wear)

• Travel time (reduced congestion)

• Per-mile crash risk

• Sub-sector specific agenda (lack of integration)

BBS

Considered Not Considered

Dhaka Circular Waterway: The Potential?

BBS

• Tourism opportunity

• Revenue for Dhaka City

• Health and active lifestyle

• Alleviating congestion from Dhaka

• Job opportunity (the

poverty alleviation goals)

• A breathing opportunity

from our daily polluted

urban life-style (noise and emission)

25

Multimodal Initiatives: Dhaka Mega City

• Sub-sector specific (most secret projects)

• Lack of multimodal analytical models to understand the net outcome of these projects on

congestion alleviation

• Managing existing traffic during

construction phase

• Lack of effective initiative for capacity building and training

• No exit-plan if funding discontinue during the project construction

• Lack of planning for transshipment and handling points (parking, bus

stops, etc.)

Inter-agency Coordination: Key for Multimodal Success

BBS

26

Capacity Building Needs for Transport Sectors

BBS

• Database – “WITHOUT DATA IT’s JUST an OPINION”o Origin-Destination Trip (Freight and Passenger)

o Passenger and freight economic forecast and demand

o Asset inventory

o Geographical Information System for Transportation (GIS-T)

• Tools and Software:o Traffic demand and forecasting modeling (i.e., TransCAD)

o Traffic simulation (i.e, TransModeller)

o GIS (AcrGIS, TransCAD, Maptitude)

o Economic Analysis (i.e., HDM-4, HERS-ST, BenCost)

o Project Impact analysis on PSRF (PAF, HCM, etc.)

o Project Impact analysis on PSRF (REMI, JobMOD etc.)

o Computers/Server

Capacity Building Needs for Transport Sectors

BBS

• Training and Continuing Educationo Local and International training

o Create opportunity for higher education

o Create opportunity for international on-the job training on how to operate

and manage such multi-modal transport mega projects

o Allow opportunity to access or tap in resources from world class transport

agencies (U.S. DOT, Australian Road Transport, and others)

o Training and awareness on PPP projects

• Human Resource Developmento Multimodal Mega Projects – Design, Construction, Operation and long-term

maintenance (the resources development)

o Incentive for resources retention

o Dedicated GOB or DPs funding for long-term resources development

o Establish “Performance Index”, monitor resource output

o Avoid short-term (piece meal approach)

27

TSC Wing: Capacity Building Activities

STRP-II

BBS

• Build transport and socio-economic data warehouse using the readily available database

• Developing the first-ever GIS-Tbased National multimodal network in Bangladesh

• Introduce TransCAD Multimodal Travel Demand Models

• TransModeler Multimodal Traffic Simulation Models

• Introduce HERS-ST, Highway Economic Analysis Tools

• Introduce Traffic Impact Study concept

• Develop DSS policy process

TSC Wing: Activity on-progress

STRP-II

BBS

• GIS database to support subsector master plans

• Subsectors capacity gap identification

• multimodal network

• Training on traffic demand and simulation models

• economic analysis tools

• Local and international on-the-job training

• Training manuals

• Strengthen two-way communication between TSC Wing and sub-sector

28

TSC Wing: Traffic Simulation – “What if” Demo

STRP-II

BBS

Babar Road Mirpur

Morning Peak

Thank you



6011001.000

Appendix: D

2nd Workshop Presentation Slides

1

The TA: Capacity Building and Support to TSC Wing of the

Planning Commission:

“TA Overview”


MMM Group, Canada


The TA: An ADB and TSC Wing, PC Initiative

Enhanced capabilities to promote

efficient, safe and seamless movement of passenger and

freight traffic on the multi-modal

transportation system and across our international borders.

2

TSC Wing: Vision and Mission

STRP-II

BBS

• The vision to ensure effective and

efficient coordination with all transport modes in accordance

with Government high level

policy framework such as NLTP, Five Year Plans, VISION 2021, and

other economic policy

• The mission to integrate transport policy, planning and appraisal

across modes

TA Objectives

• Promotion of an Integrated

Multimodal Transport System (IMTS) in the country

• Enhancement of Project Appraisal

Framework

3

TA Outputs: The Beneficiaries

• TSC Wing, Planning Commission, is the Principal Beneficiary

• Major Ministries: Communication, Rail, and Shipping

• The Road and Highways Department

• The Bangladesh Railway

• The Inland Water Transport Authority

• The Bangladesh Bridge Authority

• The Dhaka Transport Coordination Board

• The Local Government Engineering Department

• City Development Authorities and City Corporations

• Port Authorities, and other concerned Transport agencies

• Development Partners (DPs)

TA Outputs: The Beneficiaries (contd.)

Needs identification through IMTS

“What if” Decision driven by policy

and data

Analytical capabilities and database development

TA

Outcomes

GOB Accelerated funding for Subsectors

DPs

4

TA Deliverables

• Project Inception Report

• Identified, Implemented and Trained Analytical Tools

� TransCAD Traffic Demand Models

� Thematic mapping and analysis using GIS database and software

� TransModeller Traffic Simulation

� Highway Economic Requirement Systems (HERS)

• Prepare GIS database for Rail Master Plan

• Conceptual Project Appraisal Framework for BR and IWT

• Prepared Integrated implemented GIS-T based multimodal transportation network and analytical models

TA Deliverables (Contd.)

• RHD road-link based national trip O-D demand

• Established DSS Process

• Submitted Quarterly Reports

• Workshops

• Draft Final Reports/Final Reports

5

Key Recommendations

• Prepare National Integrated Multimodal Transport Master Plan

• Develop and maintain a National Transport GIS-T database

• Take initiative to finalize, approve and implement Integrated Multimodal Transport Policy.

• Initiate a process to undertake transport sector survey on passenger and freight O-D trip database

• All the new officials to be posted in transport sector of the PID must undergo a training program on multimodal analytical models.

• Conduct training when necessary on the systemic analysis process on DPP appraisal and evaluation

• Disseminate knowledge and information gained under this TA, through training, awareness or outreach session with the transport subsectors

• Implement and adopt DSS process for “what if” policy and planning analysis

• Adopt, Implement and promote traffic demand models and traffic simulation for multimodal project analysis.

Capacity Building Issues

“In Bangladesh, the noticeable constraints of multimodal

capacity buildings are the information, skills, tools,

training, and communication among transport subsectors NOT the talents or policy directives or institutional

arrangement. These areas of capacity building need

immediate attention to overcome the vast transportation planning and policy challenges that the country are

experiencing now and in the foreseeable future”

6

Part -2: Technical Session-1

Need of an Integrated Multimodal

Transport System (IMTS) for Sustainable Economic Growth


MMM Group, Canada


Integrated Multimodal Transport System (IMTS)

What?•Transport Network

•Modes

Why?•Support Growth

•Manage Resources

•Sustainability

Who?

•GOB

•Planning Commission

•Transport Subsectors

How?

•Policy

•Planning

•Database/Analysis

•Partnership

7

Integrated Multimodal Transport System:What it is?


•Modes


•Manage Resources

•Sustainability

Who?

•GOB



How?

•Policy

•Planning

•Database/Analysis

•Partnership

The Transport Network: A Global Definition

Transport

System

People

Goods

Electricity

Pipeline

Communication

Conveyer belt system

Purpose: Allow Flow of Movement Performance: Constrained by Congestion

8

Existing Multimodal Surface Transportation in Bangladesh

Road

• Car, Taxi, Rickshaw, etc.

• Bus, biking, walking

• Trucks

Rail• Goods Wagon

• Passenger cars

• Containers

Water• Country boat

• Launch

• Tag boat, etc.

Existing Multimodal Transport System(Road Network)

Road Network System: The Supply

• 21,571 Km of roads

• 14,712 bridges

• 129,793 km of rural roads

The Modes within Mode: Vehicles

• Car, Bus, Rickshaw, Trucks, Maxi, Nasimon, Walking, and others

• BRT, Bus Transit System

Road Network System: The Demand

• Passenger: 140 Billion passenger-km

• Freight: 25 Billion Ton-Km

9

Existing Multimodal Transport System(Rail System)

Rail Network System: The Supply

• 2,884 route Km of rail tracks

• About 3650 of bridges

• junctions/yards

• 2 Container intermodal Terminals

The Modes within Mode: Vehicles

• Rail Cars, Containers, Freight Wagon

• MRT, LRT, Commuter

Rail Network System: The Demand

• Passenger: 17 Billion passenger-km

• Freight: 1.5 Billion Ton-Km

Existing Multimodal Transport System(Water System)

Water Network System: The Supply• 24,000 route Km of inland waterway

• Two sea ports

• 19 Inland water ports• 360 launch stations

• 540 launch ghats• 3 intermodal Container Terminals

The Modes within Mode: Vehicles• Country boat, tag boat, launch, ships • Water taxi, ferry,

Water Network System: The Demand• Passenger: 14 Billion passenger-km

• Freight: 6 Billion Ton-Km

10

Existing Multimodal Transport Network

Integrated Multimodal Transport System:Why Needed?

What?• Transport Network

• Modes

Why?• Support Growth

• Manage Resources

• Sustainability

Who?• GOB

• Planning Commission

• Transport Subsectors

How?

• Policy

• Planning

• Database

• Analysis

• Partnership

11

Why Integrated Multimodal Transport?

BBS

Transport Sectors

Tourism

Water Resources

Agriculture

Land useEnergy

Environment

Health“Scarce

resources

diminishes as

demand for

transport

network supply

increases”

Offer

Sustainable

Economic

Growth

Managing the Scarce Resources: Supporting 147 M Population

BBS

12

Managing Resources: Agriculture Land

BBS

Managing Resources: Agriculture Land and River System

BBS

13

Managing Resources: Agriculture Land, River and Rail Tracks

BBS

Managing Resources: Agriculture Land, River, and RHD Roads

BBS

14

Managing Resources: Agriculture Land, River, RHD and LGED Road System

BBS

Growth Everywhere

BBS

Traffic•Passenger 6.5%

•Freight 12%

Population •1.36%

GDP•GDP 6.6%

•Inflation 10.6%

Others

•5% Urban Sprawl

•Energy

•Tourism

15

Transport Outlook: 2021

• Both Freight and Passenger traffic are forecasted to be

doubled from it base year 2010.

• Roads continue to dominate the modal share, creating

fierce competition with the depleting agricultural land

• Dhaka city traffic will be doubled

• Double growth for bulk and triple growth for container

cargo at Chittagong ports

• The modal share is continue to decline from water and

rail transport sectors

• Increased in GOB and DPs findings for transport sectors

The Sustainable Economic Growth and IMTS

The double digit growths in transport demand fueled by

alarming population growth and limiting by the depleting resources calls for immediate action for an

integrated multimodal transport system in Bangladesh

for a sustainable economic growth.

16

Sustainable Transport Development Results Sustainable Economic Growth

“A key change will need to take place in how the costs of transport are internalized, as the wider costs to society arising from road accidents, poor health, social impacts and environmental degradation, often described as the ‘external’ costs, are currently excluded from the price that transport users confront” – Ko Sakamoto, Transport Expert

Ref: The "cogwheels of change," introduced by transport expert Ko Sakamoto

Managing the Scarce Resources

BBS

“As government work as a provider and also often an operator (i.e., Bangladesh Railway) transport

infrastructure, it faces an increasingly complex challenge of improving safety, mobility, water resource and agriculture land and the aesthetics in an environment of constrained resources. Under such

resources constraint, implementing multimodal approach is essential to ensure that the investment of the public funds in transport sectors are utilized wisely.”

17

Integrated Multimodal Transport System:Who Should Implement?


•Modes


•Manage Resources

•Sustainability

Who?

•GOB



How?

•Policy

•Planning

•Database

•Analytical model

•Partnership

Planning Commission: Planned Development of National Interest

BBS

Guided by NLTP



Regional Policy Agenda

Transport Projects are guided by

National Economy Policy

Objectives

18

Transport Subsector: Implementation and maintaining of Planned Transport Projects

BBS

Multimodal Coordination Through Partnership

BBS

19

Integrated Multimodal Planning Challenges

STRP-II

BBS

Institutional Barrier• One transport system: six ministries and many implementing agencies.

Database/Information• Origin-Destination Trip (Freight and Passenger)

• Passenger and freight forecast ( future demand)

• Asset inventory

• Geographical Information System for Transportation

• Periodic update on key transport performance indices and Socio-economic data

Analysis Tools and Knowledge• Traffic demand and forecasting modeling

• Traffic simulation

• GIS for visualization

• Economic Analysis

• Project Impact analysis

Integrated Multimodal Planning Challenges (Contd.)

STRP-II

BBS

Capacity Gap - Resources Development• Multimodal Mega Projects – Planning , Operation and Long-Term Monitoring

• Incentive for Resources Retention

• Dedicated GOB or DPs Funding for Long-term Resources Development and

Retention

• “Performance Index” to monitor resource output

Coordination• Subsector specific

• Information sharing among transport sectors and ministries

• Outreach program and communication

• National Integrated Transport Master Plan/Policy

20

Integrated Multimodal Transport System:How to promote?


•Modes


•Manage Resources

•Sustainability

Who?

•GOB



How?

•Policy

•Planning

•Database

•Analytical models

•Partnership

Multimodal Capacity Building InitiativesTA-7388

STRP-II

BBS

• Policy

• Planning

• Database

• Analytical Models

Addressing the key constraints: The Baseline

21

The DSS Process

Multimodal Data Inputs:

knowledge, data, and information.

Planning and Policy Analysis

and Outcomes: Problem

processing system, reporting and

presentation.

Policy Output: Decision-making

driven by policy and data.

Policy

STRP-II

BBS

• National Land Transport Policy (NLTP)

• Integrated Multimodal Transport Policy (IMTP)

Policy Guidelines:

22

Planning

STRP-II

BBS

• Project Appraisal Framework (PAF)o RHD

o RAIL

o IWT

• Subsector Specific Master Planso RHD

o Rail

o IWT

• Integrated Multimodal National Master Plan

• Database and

• Analytical Tools

Requirements:

Multimodal Database: AchievementTA-7388

STRP-II

BBS

• Multimodal Network for Analytical Modeling and

Visualization

• Rail and Road Traffic and Inventory data integration

• Rail and Road Linear Referencing System for data update and future integration

• National Trip Origin Destination Database

23

Multimodal Database

BBS

Multimodal GIS-T Data Integration: Modal Geometry Correction

Multimodal Database

BBS

Multimodal GIS-T Data Integration: Modal Network Alignment & Accuracy

24

Multimodal Database

BBS

Multimodal GIS-T Data Integration: Modal Connectivity

Multimodal Database

BBS

Multimodal GIS-T Data Integration: Modal Connectivity 2

Network Discontinuity Before Edit Network Discontinuity After Edit

Intersection Error Before Edit Intersection Error After Edit

25

Multimodal Database

BBS

Linear Referencing System

Multimodal Analytical Models:Achievement Under TA-7388

STRP-II

BBS

• TransCAD for Traffic Demand modeling and trip forecasting • “What if” Scenario Analysis for new project development and

update• Modal diversion analysis• Macro and micro traffic simulations• Present and future mode (rail and road) performance analysis

• Corridor Analysis• GIS Visualization

26

Multimodal Analytical Models: Travel Demands

BBS

Mega Projects: “What if” Scenario, Example-1

Pre Padma Bridge Traffic

At Mawa: 6,000 AADT

Padma Bridge Opening

Traffic: 12,000 AADT


BBS

Pre Padma Bridge Traffic

At Mawa: 6,000 AADTPadma Bridge Opening

Traffic: 12,000 AADT

27


BBS

Forecasting Future Performance/Congestions

Year 2009 Highway

Travel Delay/Congestion

Year 2021 Highway

Travel Delay/Congestion


BBS

System Performance and Track Deficiencies

Year 2011 Track Speed

for Bangladesh Railway

Year 2011 Rail track

Capacity Usage, BR

28

Multimodal Analytical Models: Visualization

BBS

Future Multimodal Projects for

Dhaka City

Bangladesh Railway 20 Year

Development Plans

Multimodal Analytical Models: Traffic Simulation

BBS

A traffic simulation is an engineering process where project’s likely operational outcome is determined under a pre and post build

conditions with a prevailing or anticipated future traffic condition.

29

3-D Modeling: Airport Road Corridor at Kakoli

BBS

Multimodal Analytical Models: Simulationat Zia Colony Intersection

BBS

2011 Flow Condition

30

BBS

Opening Flow Condition

Multimodal Analytical Models: Simulationat Zia Colony Intersection

Multimodal Analytical Models: Simulation at Kuril Intersection

BBS

2011 Flow Condition

31

BBS

2015 Opening Condition

Multimodal Analytical Models: Simulation at Kuril Intersection

Multimodal Analytical Models: SimulationPre and Post Kuril and Zia Colony Interchange

BBS

Year 2011 Base Case Year 2015 Opening Condition Year 2021 Traffic Condition

Deterioration

32

Dhaka-Chittagong Corridor (Jatrabari-N2)

BBS

Divided 4-Lane Highway: Year 2011

Assumed Divided 8-Lane Highway with Year 2025 Traffic

Dhaka-Chittagong Corridor: With Road to Rail Diversion: Year 2011

BBS

No Diversion to Rail 15% Additional Utilization of Rail

Capacity

33

Multimodal Integration

Opportunities and Weaknesses

in Bangladesh

BBS

Transport Cost by Modes (Dhaka-Ctg. Example)

BBS

34

Integration Opportunities and Weaknesses “Road System”

STRP-II

BBS

Opportunity

• Customer focused and favorable

• Offer door to door service with extensive network coverage

• Higher reliability than other modes

• Direct linkage for Intermodal connectivity

• Favorable to poverty reduction and socio-economic benefit

• High positive impacts on rural economic activities (connecting growth centers)

Weakness

• Lands (high cost capacity expansion)

• Exceeding capacity

• Bottleneck at Major Bridges (River crossings)

• Cost of energy

• High maintenance

• Highest per ton-km tariff

• Highest accident rate

• Adverse effect on energy, carbon emission and environment

• Loss of agricultural lands

• Database

STRP-II

BBS

Opportunity

• Most promising mode of freight and passenger transportation

• Offer competitive price for freight and passenger

• Most efficient for container freight movements

• Offer positive benefit to energy, environment and agricultural land

• No option for unplanned track side development

• Safest and most reliable mode of land transportation

• Can significantly reduce road sector overloading by attracting container freight and forestry products.

Weakness

• Funding (high initial cost)

• Rolling stocks

• Capacity Shortage (Tracks)


• Lack of TOFC/COFC service to offer door-to-door service

• Reliability/Operational

• Database

Integration Opportunities and Weakness “Rail System”

35

Integration Opportunities and Weaknesses “Water System”

STRP-II

BBS

Opportunity:

• Offer most extensive waterway network in the world

• Most promising but highly neglected• Offer cheapest mode of transportation for bulks (tk 0.99/ton-km)

• Offer positive benefit to water resource management

• Land reclaiming potential through capital dredging management

• Lowest accident rate (250-350 deaths/year-60% due to overloading)• Positive benefit to tourism

• Direct benefit to road sector through the reduction of less time sensitive freight diversion to water

Weakness• Funding (e.g., dredging)

• Lack of intermodal connectors

• Lack of transshipment and handling facilities• Siltation/navigable depth

• Database

Integration Opportunities and Weaknesses “Port System”

STRP-II

BBS

Opportunity:

• The most important gateway for Bangladesh with 92% of export/import volume

• Strategic location with the potential for serving as regional hub

• Close to South-Asia growth pole having connectivity with Singapore and Colombo ports

• Directly lead Bangladesh in Global competitiveness ( i.e., garments export)

Weakness

• Lack of multimodal connectivity• Draft limitation for large mother ship

• Unplanned development along the riverside limiting future expansion

• Resource limitations for operation as well as long-term planning and forecasting

• No long-term master plans

• Unable to take full advantage of new container terminals due to administrative bureaucracy

36

Moving Forward

STRP-II

BBS

Near-Term Action Plans

• Take Initiative to finalize, approve Integrated Multimodal Transport Policy (IMTP)

• Finalize Conceptual PAF for BR and IWT

• Practice and utilize multimodal analytical tools and database developed under this TA by the TSC Wing.

• Dissemination of multimodal knowledge through training and outreach session with the transport

subsectors

Moving Forward

STRP-II

BBS

Long-Term Action Plans

• Initiate process to undertake Transport Sector Survey

• Implement IMTP

• Implement PAF for BR and IWT

• Prepare National Integrated Multimodal Transport Master Plan

• Adopt, Implement and promote traffic demand models and traffic simulation for multimodal project

analysis

37

Thank you!

Next: Technical Session-2

Technical Session-2

Impact of Local and Regional Planning

on

Integrated Multimodal Transport System

(IMTS)

Engr. Sarwar AlamDeputy Project Director

TSC Wing, Planning Commission

38

Transport Planning Imperative

Transportation Planning

National Level

Regional Level

Local Level

National Level Planning


Export

Import

Disconnected by Geography

Central Govt.

Emergency

Tourism

Distribution of Domestic Products

39


Design Standards

National Level

• Safety

• Highest Speed

• Reliability

• Motorized

Regional Level

• Safety

• Medium Speed

• Reliability

• Motorized

Local Level

• Safety

• Low average speed

• Reliability

• NMTs

• Walks

40

Regional Level Planning

Regional Level

Separated by Geography

Administrative Boundary

Connectivity with National

Level

Services

Distribution of product within

the Region

Connectivity Problem-Pabna (Example)

Population :

2.5 million

No direct inter regional connection by Road or Railway

Need 101 km detour by Road

Need 72 km detour by Railway

Proposed 2nd Padma Bridge will shorten the distance by the same

amount with Dhaka.

A Rail Bridge over Padma will shorten the same amount with

inter region.

41

Regional Level Planning

Local level Planning- Daily Life Services

Local Level Planning

Business

Works

Shopping

Leisure

Education

Medical Services

Others daily life services

42

Local level Planning

Local Level Planning- Rural Area

Village Roads

• Road-A: 106906 km

• Road-B: 100565 km

Union Road• Paved: 19200 km

• Unpaved: 25580 km

UpazillaRoad

• Paved: 27950 km

• Unpaved: 9822 km

43

Local Level Planning: Urban Area - Dhaka City

Transport System

Walks

Buses

Cars

IWTsTrains

Other

MTs

NMTs

Dhaka City

44

Dhaka City- Educational and Commercial Density

Impact of Local Planning on Mega Projects Sustainability- Dhaka City

Attraction/Destination

Growth Rate?

Multimode

Walk and or NMT

BRT/MRT

Origin/Production

Growth Rate ?

Multimode

Walk and or NMT

BRT/MRT

45

Future OutlookOne Mega Project vs. How many km Local Road?

Village Roads

• Village Road –A unpaved:94359 km (88%)

• Village Road-B unpaved:88652 km (88%)

Union Road• Paved:19200 km(43%)

• Unpaved:25580 km (57%)

UpazillaRoad

• Paved: 27950 km(74%)

• Unpaved: 9822 km(26%)

Decentralizing by Local Level Planning and ICT will reduce pressure on National IMTS

Reduce Pressure on Cities and National IMTS

Save Time

and Money

Local Level

PlanningICT

46

Thank You!

Question?



6011001.000

APPENDIX E

Conceptual Project Appraisal Framework: Rail

o

Project Appraisal Framework

Railway Sector Manual

Transport Sector Coordination Wing

Planning Commission

Government of the People’s Republic of

Bangladesh

December 2011

2

Conceptual Guidelines of Railway Project Appraisal

1. Background

In May 2006, Project Appraisal Framework (PAF) of Road Sector Manual has been

prepared to assist government officials in the preparation of road sector improvement

projects. The manual was prepared under the Transport Sector Management Reform

(TSMR) Project funded by DFID as a support to the Transport Sector Coordination

(TSC) Wing of Planning Commission. The project was also expecting that Project

Appraisal Framework (PAF) of Railway Sector Manual would also be prepared. The

process of preparing the railway PAF started with Rail Passenger Survey and data

collection. The passenger survey report analysed income of the respondents by coach and

train class, occupation, average travel time, area of influence, passenger occupancy and

so on and calculated railway passengers’ value of time. However, the railway sector

manual could not be completed due to time constraint. A follow up project of TSMR, the

Capacity Building and Support to the Transport Sector Coordination Wing of the

Planning Commission (TA–7388–BAN, ADB) has undertaken initiative to prepare the

conceptual framework of Railway Sector Manual.

2. Need for Project Appraisal Framework for Bangladesh Railway

After publication of Project Appraisal Framework (PAF) of Road Sector Manual in 2006

with a simplified multi-criteria analysis mechanism (which addresses the socioeconomic

indicators such as poverty alleviation and social development beside the issue of

economic viability), which was appreciated and effectively implemented, the TSC Wing

desired development of a similar approach to appraise rail sector projects to harmonize

project development planning and allocate scarce resources based on equal footing as

road. But railway operation is different in nature and character than road and complex in

organization and management structure.

3. Rail Sector PAF and Issues

3.1 State-owned Enterprise

Bangladesh Railway (BR) is a state-own enterprise and public sector monopoly plying a

vital role to carry passenger, bulk commodity and container traffic. It serves both as a

commercial enterprise and as a public utility service provider. As a commercial enterprise,

BR has an obligation to generate sufficient revenue to meet its cost and as a public utility

service it has a special responsibility to provide reliable transport facilities to the

passengers and freight. Bangladesh Railway is also responsible for carrying disaster relief

goods during emergency situations like flood, famine and cyclone. BR also carries

military goods at subsidised price. In addition, the railway has to bear some costs in

matter of public education, medical care, housing, security services and welfare to the

railway officers and staff.

3

However, there has always been arguments from political-economic view point that

transport (specifically railway services) is a social service which should be public good

and meet ‘needs’ rather than demand and hence, traditional market forces need to be

supplemented to ensure that this wider social need criterion of rail operations is pursued

rather than realizing simple profit motive. Planning and appraisal for BR project must

consider the following specific characteristics of BR operation and control as an state-

owned enterprise.

3.2 Rail Cost Allocation

The issue of rail cost allocation is considerably more complex than that of the bus

industry, because the Government is responsible both for railway infrastructure, rolling

stock and service operation. However, some costs are directly incurred for train operation

including train crew, diesel fuel, and rolling stock maintenance – correspond broadly to

those found in the bus industry. Additionally, train operation needs the operation of

stations, ticketing, reservation and security incurring staffing and maintenance costs that

are function of the number and size of stations, rather than directly related to train

movements. Moreover some costs are not directly related to train operation as such, but

involve access charges (maintenance costs) to rail track, bridges, telecommunications and

signalling (covering provision of infrastructure and signalling), leasing charges (here

procurement) of rolling stock, etc. The following graph shows the revenue expenditures

of BR in FY 2008-2009.

BR Revenue Expenditures Departments

2114

3821

1366

135

978 1013

239

82

1449

108207

10647 60

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Civil E

ngin

eering

Mechanical (L

ocom

otives)

Mechanical (C

arriage &

W

agon)

Mechanical (M

arine/F

erry

)

Tra

ffic

Ele

ctrical

Sig

nal & T

elecom

DG

, GM

, Academ

y, Planning

W

elfare

Medical

Security

Accounts

Esta

te

CCS &

COS

Millio

n T

aka

4

Of them, Department of Mechanical Engineering including Traffic and Signalling are

directly involved in train operation while the Department of Civil and Electrical

Engineering are supporting train operations.

3.3 Life of Asset, Fixed and Variable Components

Bangladesh Railway owns all permanent and mobile assets of rail such as the rail track

and infrastructures, rolling stocks and bears responsibility for service operations and

systems. However, a railway service involves using services of a large number of factors,

many of these are being highly specific and each with its own physical life-span. Most of

the above costs are fixed cost for short and medium run period. When it comes for

considering line closures the essential questions revolve around deciding exactly which

costs are fixed. In the very short period, since all other items have already been purchased,

they are fixed, the only savings the railways can make are in variable costs, notably those

attributable to labour, fuel and maintenance. However, if the railways were earning

sufficient income to cover these variable costs then there is no justification for closing the

line.

After a period of about twenty years locomotives become due for replacement.

Consequently locomotive costs become variable over a twenty-year horizon but twenty

years is not the long run for railway because other components have still longer lives,

rolling stock lasting 30 years and track and signalling 50 years. Earthworks effectively

have an infinite life.

3.4 Public Service Obligation and Compensation for Social Cost

Bangladesh Railway is compensated under “Public Service Obligation (PSO)” system for

operating specific service which is not commercially viable but socially necessary. This

concept has been accepted by the Government. This is an open-ended subsidy, which has

enabled to cover its operating expenses. Issue of subsidy arises because of following

reasons:

• Carrying essential commodities and rendering transport facilities to passengers at

lower prices than cost of services

• Operation of un-economic branch lines

• Carrying relief materials at concession rates

• Carrying military traffic at less than normal tariff

In addition to the above, there may be other arguments for allowing subsidies to BR are:

• Costs may be heavily skewed towards infrastructure, as for rail, in which case the

marginal costs will be lower than the average costs,

• Costs vary by time of the day, the marginal costs in the peak hour will be much

higher as the system will be at capacity. But at other times of the day the costs

may approach zero as the trains and staff are employed for the peak demand, and

5

• Efficient train operation and enhanced frequency will reduce both the costs of

passengers (users) and operators (producer)

The present situation of Bangladesh railway may represent graphically as follows:

Let SS (or W or NSB) = CS + PS = TSB – TSC = WTP – TSC

Where, SS= Social Surplus, W=Welfare, NSB=Net Social Benefit, CS=Consumer

Surplus, PS=producer Surplus, TSB=Total Social Benefit, TSC=Total Social Cost,

WTP=Willing to Pay

Figure 1: Present Marginal Cost and PSO Obligation of BR P

a

P* MC=AC

b c d

P1 D

Q* Q1 Q

At (Q1,P1) CS=a+b+c, where P1<MC

PS= – (b+c+d), amount of subsidy as Public Service Obligation (PSO)

SS=a+b+c-d

At (Q*,P*) CS=a, where P* = MC

PS= 0

SS= a

3.5 Pro-poor and Gender Biased Transport Service

The Rail Passenger Survey report had taken into consideration of different socio-

economic strata of passengers. It is seen that the highest percentages of respondents are

located within Tk.7001- 10,000 income group and the lowest percentages of respondents

are found located in Tk.20,000 - above income group. It is observed that income group

from Tk.3000 - 10,000/month consist of about 50% of the total passenger. The lower

income group (up to Tk.3000/month) accounts for 23% of the rail passenger. Hence

almost one quarter of rail passengers can be considered very poor.

6

It is seen from the report that survey also incorporated number of women among the

passenger. The survey found that about the percentage of women among the passenger

was found to be 22% across all trains.

3.6 Contrasts in the Appraisal of Rail and Road Transport

The following Table 1 sets out the contrasts and consideration of major parameters for

the appraisal of rail and road projects.

Table 1: Contrasts and Consideration in the Appraisal of Rail and Road Parameters Rail Appraisal Road Appraisal

Fixed Plant • Owned under public sector

• Longer life of fixed plant

• Replacement near to impossible

• Needs mainly routine

maintenance

• Less use of materials for

maintenance

• Materials like ballast are reused

• Less responsive by natural

disaster like flood and cyclone

• Owned under public sector

• Shorter life of fixed plant

• Replacement is possible

• Needs routine, periodic and

reconstruction maintenance

• Use of materials for

maintenance

• Generally bituminous

carpeting are not reused

• Quick deterioration by natural

disaster like flood

Mobile Plant • Rolling stock owned under

public sector

• Longer life of mobile plant about

25-30 years

• In general, vehicles owned

under private sector

• Shorter life of mobile plant

about 10-12 year

Operating Cost

Estimation • Only maintenance cost (access

charge) of fixed plant

• Rental cost of rolling stock

• Maintenance cost of rolling stock

• Operation cost of traffic

department (crew, station

personnel, etc)

• Operation cost (access charge) of

signalling department

• Purchase cost of vehicles

• Maintenance cost of vehicles

including accessories

• Overhead cost (management

cost)

• Crew cost (driver and

assistance)

• Yearly road tax only

Producer Surplus • Producer surplus share with

fixed plant

• No share of producer surplus

with fixed plant

Wider Economic

Impacts • Station based business activities

• Cheaper freight and passenger

transport

• Along the road business

activities

• Less cheaper freight and

passenger transport

• Long distance and large volume

of freight and passenger

transport

• Less externalities

• Less accident

• No congestion

• Less efficient transport

• Much externalities

• Accident prone

• Making congestion

7

4. Project Appraisal Framework and Considerations

Techniques of project appraisal generally rest, wholly or partly, on the concept of

economic efficiency. Tests of economic efficiency rest of the valuation of all costs and

benefits of a project in money terms, and methods of doing this in respect of all the

objectives of transport policy will then are considered. A project is economically efficient

if the benefits measured in money terms exceed the costs; the most efficient project is

that for which the difference is the greatest. A method is also required for dealing with

the fact that costs and benefits of transport projects are spread over many years.

Conventionally this is handled by the technique of discounting for time.

If one is concerned with the distribution of income in the economy and users perspective,

then it is necessary to know not just whether a project contributes to economic efficiency

but also who gains and who loses from it. This can be undertaken by identifying groups

in terms of function (poor among users, job creation for poor people, women among users,

job creation of women and resettlement, residents) and income level, and disaggregating

costs and benefits to these groups. Then it is possible to attach, explicitly or implicitly,

higher weight to poorer sectors of society. However, it is complicated to analyse, as the

repercussions of projects have to be traced through all those affected.

4.1 Efficiency

A key aspect of railway appraisal is usually the search for an ‘efficient’ allocation of

resources, and it is important at the outset, therefore, to have a clear understanding of

what is meant by the concept of economic efficiency. An economically efficient

allocation of resources is achieved when it is impossible to make one person or group in

society better off without making another group worse off. In other words, if projects

could be found and undertaken which would make everyone better off, those projects

would serve to promote economic efficiency.

However, to make the efficiency analysis easy, the following parameters should be

considered in the cost-benefit analysis for preparation of the PAF. Impact of externalities

such as accident, emission and environment should be considered in course of the cost-

benefit analysis based on available qualitative and quantitative information. The PAF

must analyse the impact of changes on producers’ and consumers’ surplus as well as

externalities in following items:

Change in operator/producer surplus

• Effect on revenue

• Effect on costs – Capital

• Effect on costs - Operating

Changes in consumer surplus (user impacts)

8

• Changes in generalised cost

• Effect on generated/suppressed travel

Externalities (non-user impacts)

• Congestion

• Accidents

• Environment

4.1.1 Valuing costs and benefits

Like any other project, the railway project will involve costs (capital cost, procurement of

rolling stock, land acquisition and resettlement, maintenance and operating costs, and

estimation of externalities) and benefits (time and operating cost savings, accident

savings, savings of road vehicle user cost and time savings from road transport) to

measure the economic efficiency.

Typical cost streams include the following:

• Construction costs/Civil Engineering Works (capital cost)

• Operation and Maintenance costs

• Procurement of Rolling Stocks and Installation of Equipment

• Land acquisition and Resettlement cost

• Environmental and social impact mitigation

• Administrative and other costs

The benefits streams will include:

• Travel Time Cost (TTC) saving of rail passengers and freight

• Train Operating Cost (TOC) savings

• Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) savings of road vehicles diverted

• Travel Time Cost (TTC) savings of road passengers in case of alternative Option

• External Cost Savings (air pollution, CO2 emissions and accidents), if possible

The benefits would be calculated by deducting the ‘project case’ costs from ‘base case’

costs scenarios. Economic efficiency is measured by three major criteria, economic

internal rate of return (EIRR), net present value (NPV) and benefit-cost ratio (BCR)

which can be calculated in MS Excel worksheet.

4.1.2 Generated Traffic

The above discussion on time saving benefit suggests that the cost of making a particular

journey may be taken as:

G = M + vT

Where G = generalised cost, M = money cost, v = value of time, and T = journey time.

The price in a standard demand curve may be replaced by this notion of generalised cost

which allows for the fact that rail users pay for their journey in a combination of time and

money devoted to it.

9

= 0.5 (G1 – G2) (Q1 + Q2)

Generalised cost = excess of G2 over resource cost

Figure 2: Benefits from reduced railway costs

Q1 Q2

Traffic volume

It would be expected that, as the generalised cost of journeys fell, so the number of trip

undertaken would rise, so that a demand curve can be drawn relating to this generalised

cost to the number of journeys made, or Q = Q (G). Assuming for simplicity a straight

line demand relationship, this may be drawn as in Figure 2.

Now suppose that a railway project reduces the generalised cost from G1 to G2, and

causes an increase in demand from Q1 to Q2, The generalised cost saving to the existing

users is straightforwardly measured as (G1 – G2) Q1. New users are actually paying G2 for

their journeys. They were not willing to travel when the cost was G1. In fact the demand

curve tells the maximum that each user is willing to pay for the journey, and if it is linear

then on average this is halfway between G1 and G2. Thus on average the difference

between what new users are willing to pay and what they actually pay is 0.5 (G1 – G2).

This is termed as consumers’ surplus on the additional journeys. Overall the benefit to

users from the generalised cost change, or the additional consumer surplus to users, is

therefore 0.5 (G1 – G2) (Q1 + Q2).

4.1.3 Accident

G1

G2

10

It is known that the rate of accident in rail is lesser than that of road. The accident cost

may be divided into those that are readily valued in money terms, and those that are not.

RHD Road User Cost Annual Report, 2005 estimated the accident cost including damage

to property and vehicles, health service, ambulance and police costs, and loss of

production due to victims are being unable to work. However, the report may be used for

accident cost analysis for rail project appraisal.

4.1.4 Land acquisition and resettlement

The preparation of a project appraisal will include a reconnaissance physical survey along

the proposed route with a detailed map showing existing rail alignments. During this

survey a preliminary alignment and land take requirement will be estimated. Based on the

land requirement value judgment would be needed for scoring the value of the indicator.

Data on resettlement should be based on specific field surveys. The appraisal process

should also identify all human settlements, which will be affected by the railway

alignment. It is also necessary to make an estimate of the number of people to be resettled

with detailed indications for the calculation of this indicator.

4.2 Socioeconomic (Equity) Considerations

Equity indicators would be intended to help in decision making such that the impact of

any project towards more equitable distribution of project benefits would ensure across

different income groups, regions, genders and also across generations (i.e. to ensure

sustainability). In order to determine the impact of a project on poverty alleviation and

social development a number of indicators need to be identified which need to be

quantified. This would be involved value judgment. However, these values would not be

included in the cost-benefit analysis.

4.3 Wider Economic Impacts and Economic Regeneration

In many countries, the main motivation behind a transport project is the encouragement

of economic development and the promotion of particular patterns of land use. Thus for

instance revival/re-commissioning of railway line would promote economic activity in

those areas, particularly, railway station based business, creation of jobs and increase of

domestic trade. The construction of Padma Bridge with the Rail Bridge option is a major

initiative in the recent time. This initiative will open up the new opportunities for railway

extension to southern part as well as south-west part of Bangladesh.

5. Conclusions

This conceptual guideline addressed the key issues that should be considered in

appraising rail investment projects in Bangladesh. This has consulted the proven body of

literature practiced in rail project planning and appraisal. It has demonstrated the concept

of economic efficiency requires stream of costs and benefits flow to be measured in terms

money value. Economic efficiency should also be supplemented with socioeconomic

11

equity criteria. The equity benefits require value judgment and need to be incorporated to

strengthen the argument for social benefits of the proposed project. So, therefore, all the

benefits and costs were valued in money terms, and then one could simply calculate the

NPV or EIRR of the project using the technique of discounting for time.



6011001.000

Appendix F

Conceptual Project Appraisal Framework: IWT

o

Conceptual Project Appraisal

Framework

IWTA Sector Manual

Transport Sector Coordination Wing

Planning Commission

Government of the People’s Republic of

Bangladesh

December 2011

[Type text]

[Type text]

1.0 Introduction

This conceptual guideline for project appraisal (CGPA) has been designed to assist Inland Waterway

Transport (IWT) Sector agencies like BIWTA, BIWTC and Department of Shipping under the Ministry of

Shipping in preparation of development projects for public sector investment. It is felt that the CGPA

could be necessary tool for project appraisal in IWT sector in Bangladesh to maintain a uniform practice

of systematic project preparation. It is understood that the sector lacks established data bases for

activities and resources necessary for project preparation. The absence of any approved Project

Appraisal Guideline for IWT sector leads the project preparation heterogeneous which lack

comparability and reliability. As a result adequate statistical analysis cannot be made based either on

scanty data or assumed (manipulated) data. This guideline will encourage the agencies to collect and use

updated objective data and information for a specific project and provide framework for undertaking

basic statistical analysis. The CGPA can be improved in future as the ongoing progress is continued for

data collection to establish GIS and other attribute databases and procurement of analysis software by

agencies. This CGPA is comparable with road sector PAF jointly developed by TSMR project and TSCW. It

is found that the practice of PAF for road sub-sector has brought about comprehensive disciplines and

standardization in preparation and appraisal of road sector projects. However, this CGPA was developed

in consultation with the road sector PAF.

2.0 IWT Appraisal Indicators

The CGPA has adopted two sets of indicators for appraising the IWT projects – equity indicators and

efficiency indicators. Equity indicators provide the socioeconomic impact of the project and efficiency

indicators provide the economic costs, benefits and internal profitability of the project investment.

Equity indicators are derived from the national planning objectives emphasized on the poverty

reduction, participation and social development. Each indicator is given score in the scale of 0-10 points

reflecting the worst and best case. So that desirable projects get higher score than less desirable

projects. Once the indicators are given score in a consistent manner they are weighted in proportion to

their perceived importance towards fulfilling national policy objectives. Following sections describe the

nature and technique of quantification and measurements of the indicators.

2.1 Equity Indicators

Equity indicators measure socioeconomic impact of proposed project considering: percentage of poor

people in the zone of influence, share of poor and women among the users, job created for local people

including poor and women, land acquisition and resettlement needs of the project. Some of the

indicators measure positive impacts of the project and others may impact adversely such as land take

and eviction of settlements. Most of the equity indicators are commonly used in IWT projects but in

specific cases some of the indicators may not be applicable. Equity indicators are mainly considered for

showing the impact of the project and equitable distribution of benefits across the income groups,

regions, genders and also generations. Table 2.1 describes the objective, impact, quantitative

assessment and weight of Indicators.

Table 2.1: Equity Indicators

[Type text]

Broad

Objective

Objective Sub-objective Impact Indicator Quantitative

Assessment

Weight

Equity Social and

Economic

Development

(SED)

Pro-poor

economic

growth

(SED1A)

Poor people in

the ZOI(SED1A)

% of poor people

in ZOI

1.0

Poor among

users (SED1B)

% of poor among

the user

0.6

Job creation for

local people

(SED1C)

% of local people

among employed

0.6

Gender Equity

(SED2)

Women among

users (SED 2A)

% of women

among total users

0.5

Job created for

women (SED2B)

% of women

among workers

0.5

Resettlement

(RTM)

Reducing the

Impact of

Resettlement

RTM

Total land take

(RTM1A)

Amount of land

take (hectare)

1.0

People to be

resettled

(RTM1B)

Number of

people to be

settled

0.8

Note: Total weight of the equity indicators is 5.0

2.1.1 SED1A: Poor people in the Zone of Influence (ZOI)

Procedure

The method of calculating value of this indicator will involve tabulation of some basic demographic data

in the format shown in table 2.2. The information/data required for the highlighted cells are obtained

from published sources whereas the rest are derived by calculation. Some of the data are enclosed with

this manual. Calculations are given below:

Table 2.2: Calculation of SED1A Indicator

Upazila/

District

Area (A) Population

(B)

Population

Density

(C=B/A)

% of poor

people in

upazila

(D)

Area

within

ZOI in sq.

km (E)

Population

In the ZOI

(F=C*E)

Number

of poor

people

(G=F*D)

Total

%ofpoorpeopleinZOI =TotalpoorpopulationinZOI(i. e. sumofCol. G)

�� !�"!"�ℎ$%&'(!. $. ( )�*+��. ,)-100

ZOI of scheme can be defined based on the class of IWT route and nature of the scheme. The following

Table 2.3 may be consulted during calculation.

[Type text]

Table2.3: ZOI for different IWT routes/schemes

Scheme/Route ZOI (districts/upazilas)

Class-I

Class-II

Class-III

Class-IV

Ghat/infrastructure

Calculation of SED1A: following formula is used

SED1A =4567849:;<=9:>

?@AB@8?CDEAFCDG-10

Where: P ZOI = percentage of poor people in the ZOI (calculated from table 2.2)

P national = national average poverty percentage (upper poverty line)

P high = highest incidence of poverty in any upazila in the country

According to national poverty statistics (2010) the recommended values of P high and P national are 71 and 42

respectively. The highest and lowest threshold values are 10 and 0 for this indicator. Any value greater than 10 will

be considered as 10 and any negative value will be considered as 0.

2.1.2 Poor people among the IWT users

Three sets of data will be required to calculate this indicator included are traffic count data by vessel

type, average occupancy of seat/capacity and data for percentage of poor people among the occupants.

Project preparation team will collect these data from field survey or BIWTA will provide necessary

occupancy data for each class of vessels by route-class. Data reports to be prepared while completed

data collection surveys and established comprehensive data bases. Highlighted cells are to be provided

by survey or collected from secondary sources while others need to be calculated. The format shown in

table 2.4 can be used for calculating the indicator.

Table 2.4: Format to calculate % of poor among the users

Vessel type AADT /Annual

Trip (A)

Average

Occupancy (B)

Total Users

(C=A*B)

% of Poor (D) Number of

poor users

(E=C*D)

Passenger

Steamer

Passenger

Launch

Coastal Vessels

Sea Truck

Ferries

Total

[Type text]

The percentage of poor among total users can be calculated by dividing total of column E by that of

column C.

Scoring: the more a project is to be used by the poor the project is more qualified for funding support.

The highest percentage of poor has been set at 30% for full score of 10 point. If the value of score

becomes more than 10 by any calculation should be considered 10.

2.1.3 Job creation for local people

Job creation for local people directly or indirectly is one of the objectives of project development. In IWT

sector many of the projects works are mechanized such as capital dredging projects, procurement of

equipment and ships, as a result the scope for direct employment of local people seems limited.

However, some projects inspire creation of job opportunities for local people as direct labour or

indirectly such as opportunities of small business. Information on job can be collected from

contractors/BIWTA.

The value of this indicator is adopted as between 0-10. To derive the value of the indicator, information

on total employment and percentage of local people employed to be collected. For calculating the score

% of local people employed to be divided by 10.

2.1.4 Percentage of women among the users

This information can be derived from traffic and occupancy surveys of IWT passenger vessels. BIWTA

should have this basic data in their database. To calculate the value of this indicator following table 2.5

may be used:

Table 2.5: Format for calculating percentage of women among total passengers

Vessel Type AADT (A) Average

occupancy (B)

Total number

of users

(C=A*B)

% of Women

(D)

Number of

women users

(E=C*D)

Passenger

Steamer

Passenger

Launch

Coastal Vessels

Sea Truck

Ferries

Total

The percentage of women among the total users can be calculated by dividing total of column E by that

of column C. The value of this indicator is adopted ranges between 0-10.

Scoring: to calculate score of this indicator, please divide percentage of women users by 3. If the

indicator scores above 10 it should be treated as 10.

[Type text]

2.1.5 Percentage of jobs created for women

Data on the employment of women can be collected either through interview of contractors or from

BIWTA database report.

The value of this indicator is adopted as 0-10. To derive the value of the indicator, information on total

employment and percentage of unskilled women employed to be collected. For calculating the score of

this indicator, % of women among employed unskilled labour force to be divided by 5.

2.1.6 RTM1A: Land acquisition and Resettlement

Most of the physical construction projects require land for its implementation. Sources of land can be

government owned public land/khas land or privately owned land. Project preparation and appraisal of

IWT sector should indicate the possible land take required for the project showing in maps. During the

preparatory survey the people involved should visit the project site and make reconnaissance survey for

land availability and acquisition. In case of IWT sector the cases for land take could be minimum as the

river, water bodies, their banks and shores, etc are owned by the government. However, the project

document should include the land requirement, if any and acquisition and resettlement costs.

The value of this indicator ranges between 0-10. The score can be obtained from the following formula:

H�I1J(+�K$ =LM=N9;=O>:9P;:QR<9SRT;:UR

?VFWXYEYFZEAC[\.]VFVX-10

Value may be negative in certain cases.

2.1.7 RTM 1B: Number of people to be resettled

Resettlement of affected persons should be assessed following the government rules. Data should be

based on specific field surveys. The appraisal process should also be identified all human settlements

affected by the project. The value of the indicator ranges between 0- 10.

It assumes 25 persons affected per Tk. 10.0 crore investments is the worst condition. The scoring of this

indicator can be calculated following the formula given below:

H�I1^(+�K$ = 10 −`NMaRU=ObR=b>R;=aRURcR;;>RP

?VFWXYEACYVFVX[\.-4

2.2 Efficiency (Economic) Indicators

Efficiency indicators are important to appraise a project for examining the economic strength and worth

of the project justifying the investment. Five indicators have been identified for measuring efficiency of

a project including transport efficiency, reliability, funding, multimodal integration and safety. Indicators

are summarized in Table 2.6 below together with their relevant objectives:

[Type text]

Table 2.6: Efficiency Indicators for IWT Sector

Broad

Objective

Objective Sub-objective Impact

Indicator

Quantitative

Assessment

Weight

Efficiency Transport

Efficiency (TRE)

Economic

Efficiency

(TRE1)

Economic

internal rate of

return

(EIRR)(TRE1A)

EIRR in % 3

Reliability

(TRE2)

Availability and

dependability

(TRE2A)

Availability and

timely journey

0.5

Funding Private Sector

Finance

Financial rate

of return (FIRR)

(FIA1A)

FIRR (%) 0

Multimodal

Integration

Integration

with rail and

road

EIRR for

integration

EIRR (%) 0.5

Navigability Round the year

navigability

Seasonal

disruption of

traffic

Number of

days

0.5

Safety Safety in

transit and on-

board

Accident

reduction

% of accident

reduced

0.5

Note: total weight of efficiency indicators is 5

2.2.1 Transport Cost Benefit Analysis

The cost benefit analysis is the core of a project evaluation. A simplified appraisal method is developed

for evaluating all types of IWT projects and presented in Appendix-5. The classification of IWT projects

could be as follows:

• Dredging of river or channels maintaining navigability (capital dredging)

• Dredging for channels for maintenance of waterways (maintenance dredging)

• Construction of ferry ghats, jetties and terminals

• Construction of steamer /major launch ghats and landing stations

• Construction of launch landing stations

• Construction of IWT container terminal

• Procurement/construction of container ships

• Improvement of boat landing stations

• Procurements/ construction of vessels, pontoons, jetties

• Procurement of equipment for dredging and conservancy

• Undertaking hydrographic surveys and studies

• Institutional and capacity building project

[Type text]

For appraisal of project two cases needed to be prepared for comparison - base case and project case.

First of all, one has to understand that what problem the proposed project/scheme is intended to solve.

Once the problems are known then cost and benefits of problems can be identified and assigned

monetary values. Identification of costs and benefits streams is the main components in appraising an

investment project.

Typical cost streams of an IWT project include:

• Construction/dredging costs

• Procurement/import cost

• Operation and Maintenance costs

• Land acquisition and resettlement costs

• Environmental and social impact mitigation costs (where applicable)

• and so on

Typical benefit streams include:

• vessel operating cost (VOC) saving

• travel time cost (TTC) saving

• accident cost saving (if any)

• environmental and other benefits

• multimodal cost saving

The values of costs and benefits have to be calculated for each year of the implementation period as

well as for each year of the analysis period, usually considered to be 20 years. The cost and benefits then

are to be discounted to take into account of the time value of money. Following formula will be followed

for discounting for time value of money:

ef =gN

(hiV)C

Where:

Vd = discounted value

Vu= undiscounted value

r = discount rate/ interest rate

n= number of year

After tabulating these values, the EIRR can be calculated by using appropriate command in the

spreadsheet applications in Excel. Other economic indicators like Net present Value (NPV) and benefit –

cost ratio (BCR) should also be calculated. For the purpose of IWT PAF the EIRR indicator will be used.

The score of this indicator is:

[Type text]

TRE1A = EIRR in percent – discount rate

The value of this indicator ranges between 0 - 10. Value more than 10 will be treated as 10.

2.2.2 TRE 1B: Reliability Indicator

Reliability of IWT services is an important indicator which indicates two things – availability of services in

all seasons and at regular time interval. Presently, many of the services remain closed during dry season

due to lack of navigability of the channel. Class III and Class IV routes mostly fall under this category. In

order to assess the reliability of transport facility, one has to know how many days in a year the service

is not available. The data can be collected through survey and interview with local people or from

BIWTA records. The value of this indicator ranges between 0-10.

To calculate the score for this indicator the number of additional days has to be divided by 5. The best

illustration of project scheme improves availability of 50 additional days in a year. Therefore, to get

the highest score of 10 the number of additional days has to be divided by 5.

2.2.3 FIA1: Funding Indicators

Funding indicators are relevant for appraising project in case of private sector investment in

infrastructure. In such case financial internal rate of return (FIRR) needs to be calculated. The calculation

procedures involve the costs and benefits streams remaining the same as EIRR calculations but relevant

sources and recipients will be different in many cases. In cost stream only financial costs are relevant.

Economic costs, social costs, transfer payment, unless reflected in the financial cost will not be of

concern. The benefit values similarly will only take into account of profits likely to be accrued to the

private investors only.

Once the costs and benefit streams are calculated for each year of analysis period, these should be used

calculating financial internal rate of return (FIIR) similarly as economic analysis.

In private sector financed infrastructure project financial benefits are estimated on the basis of tolls

imposition on vessels/vehicles, goods and passengers. Therefore, the impacts of tolls on the growth of

traffic should be assessed.

The value of the indicator will be between 0 -10. The following equation will be used for calculating the

score of the indicator.

Funding Indicator = FIRR/2

2.2.4 Multimodal Integration

The multimodal integration in case of IWT project should consider the possibility of integrating the

impacts of the project on neighboring rail and road. For grater impacts on the transportation system if

small projects / project works are needed those should be included within the project cost. The

additional costs and benefits for multimodal integration are to be identified separately and economic

analysis and calculation of EIRR also to be done properly both separately as well as jointly with the main

[Type text]

IWT project. The multimodal integration will consider only multimodal connection between modes not

the integration of logistics and services.

The procedure for calculating costs and benefits of integration of other modes will follow the same

procedure as in the main project.

An example of sample case is presented in Appendix-5.

2.2.5 SAF 1: Safety Indicator

Safety in transit has become a major concern worldwide in recent decades due to huge number of

deaths (1.2 million, 2003) and casualties every year caused by road and other transport related

accidents. This unwanted loss of lives and fatalities costs enormous amount of money, resources and

irreparable loss to the families of diseased or injured persons. Safety indicators are important for all

transport modes but in the context of Bangladesh it is more for road than other modes. Consequently,

the safety indicator has become an integral part of the appraisal system particularly for road design.

The safety concern in IWT normally arises because of natural calamities and lack of weather forecast,

lack of awareness of the captains, lack of proper marking for night sailing and fault of pilots. The

appraisal should identify the locations where the incidences of different kinds of accidents have

occurred. BIWTA should have identified the accident black spots particularly in main perennial routes

and should have system of collecting accident data on regular basis mentioning the reasons for accident

and measures taken to prevent such accidents.

2.3 Other Indicators

There may be other project specific indicators such as external factors of cross border flows, artificial

barriers, dams for withdrawal of water, etc.

3.0 Weightage

Weightage of the indicators are shown in the table in Appendix 1. Once the score of individual indicators

are calculated they have to be multiplied by the respective weightages.

Once total scores are converted by using the weightages they will have to be added up to estimate the

score of a project. The quantitative scores should also be entered in the Appraisal Summary Table (AST).

[Type text]

4.0 Appendix 1: Impact Indicators

Broad

Objective

Objective Sub-objective Impact Indicator Quantitative

Assessment

Weight

Equity Social and

Economic

Development

(SED)

Pro-poor

economic

growth

(SED1A)

Poor people in

the ZOI(SED1A)

% of poor people

in ZOI

1.0

Poor among

users (SED1B)

% of poor among

the user

0.6

Job creation for

local people

(SED1C)

% of local people

among employed

0.6

Gender Equity

(SED2)

Women among

users (SED 2A)

% of women

among total users

0.5

Job created for

women (SED2B)

% of women

among workers

0.5

People to be

resettled

(RTM1B)

Number of

people to be

settled

0.8


Efficiency

(TRE)

Economic

Efficiency

(TRE1)

Economic

internal rate of

return

(EIRR)(TRE1A)

EIRR in % 3

Reliability

(TRE2)

Availability and

dependability

(TRE2A)

Availability and

timely journey

0.5


Finance

Financial rate of

return (FIRR)

(FIA1A)

FIRR (%) 0

Multimodal

Integration

Integration

with rail and

road

EIRR for

integration

EIRR (%) 0.5


navigability

Seasonal

disruption of

traffic

Number of days 0.5

Safety Safety in transit

and on-board

Accident

reduction

% of accident

reduced

0.5

Note: value of total weight of indicators is 10

[Type text]

5.0 Appendix 2: Appraisal Summary Table (AST)

Broad

Objective

Objective Sub-objective Quantitative

Assessment

Social Score

(SS=RS applied

on formula)

Weighted Score

(WS = CS times

respective

weightage)

Equity Social and

Economic

Development

(SED)

Pro-poor

economic

growth

(SED1A)

% of poor people

in ZOI

% of poor among

the user

% of local people

among employed

Gender Equity

(SED2)

% of women

among total

users

% of women

among workers

Number of

people to be

settled


Efficiency

(TRE)

Economic

Efficiency

(TRE1)

EIRR in %

Reliability

(TRE2)

Availability and

timely journey


Finance

FIRR (%)

Multimodal

Integration

Integration

with rail and

road

EIRR (%)


navigability

Number of days


and on-board

% of accident

reduced

Appendix-3

[Type text]

6.0 Appendix 3: Guidelines for Decision Making

Once the project appraisal report is finalized and the AST is prepared, the score can be interpreted in the

following table:

Score Ranges Interpretation

50 and above Very good

40-50 Fair

35-40 Poor

Below 35 Very poor

Appraiser should also do the following:

• Relative contribution of the project to equity and efficiency can be assessed by comparing the

scores in the equity and efficiency part.

• For extreme values, please evaluate and describe observed reasons.

• As regards the subjective indicators, a brief summary may be helpful.

Decision Making

The selected project must be economically viable and socially desirable as necessary condition but not

sufficient to be prioritized. The selection procedure will scrutinize and compare the scores of other

projects too in the list and available resources to implement the projects. Priority of the projects will

depend on relative scores of the projects. The conditions of funding may be as follow:

• The project scores better than all rejected projects

• Adequate fund is available to implement the project in time

• The project is at least fair as per the ranges provided in the score table.

Note:

• If none of the projects are found to be at least in the fair range it will mean that more effort s

are needed to identify good projects so that these could contribute to the development process

of the country.

[Type text]

7.0 Appendix 4: Pro-forma of the Appraisal Report

8.0 Appendix 5: Appraisal Guidelines (Case Study-IWT project)

Table of Contents:

Part I: Project Description

Project Title

Implementing Agency

Location Map

Problems and objectives

Identification and Assessment of Options

Description of Preferred Option

Cost estimate

Part II: Appraisal against PAF Indicators

Poor people in project area of influence

Poor people among project users

Job creation for local people

Job creation for women

Land acquisition required

Resettlement

Cost –benefit analysis

Reliability

Funding potential

Multi-modal integration

Safety

Presentation of Summary Appraisal Table

Conclusion

[Type text]

Part I: Project Description

1. Project Title: Dredging 12 (twelve) Important River Routes

2. Implementing Agency: Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), Ministry

of Shipping and IWT

3. Location and location Map: Location map attached

Table 3.1: Project Area

Division District Upazila

Dhaka Manikganj, Munshiganj,

Gopalganj,Narayanganj,

Narshingdi, Madraipur,

Shariatpur

Shibalaya, Munshiganj, Gazaria, Gopalganj

Sadar, Narayanganj, Demra, Narshingdi,

Noria, Zazira, Sureswar, Shariatpur,

Madaripur sadar and Kalkini.

Barisal Barisal and Pirojpur Muladi, Uzirpur and Pirojpur

Comilla Comilla Daudkandi, Meghna

Rajshahi Pabna and Sirajganj Sirajganj, Bera and Shahjadpur

4. Problems and objectives:

(a) Background:

The waterway is one of the important, cheaper and natural transport modes in Bangladesh. But the

rivers as well as inland waterways network are gradually deteriorating due to several reasons such as: (i)

stream flow reduction; (ii) reduction in cross – boundary flow; (iii) silting up of off-takes; (iv) reduction of

tidal volumes, etc. As a result the length of navigable waterways has become drastically decreased

particularly during dry seasons. Therefore, to revive the serviceability of the water sector transport the

proposed 12 important waterways in the central and southwest regions should be improved to make

round the year navigable.

(b) Main Objective:

To develop navigability of 12 (twelve) river routes by dredging for ensuring smooth and safe movement

of water crafts (both cargo and passenger carrying vessels)

(c) Specific objectives:

(1). Opening up of 187 km long Dhaka-Taltala- Dohar- Zazira- Madaripur- Kabirajpur- Chowdhury

hat/ Peajkhali- Charjanajat/Keorakandi waterway in the rivers Ichamati, Padma and Arialkhan

to maintain 1.83 m draft for vessels;

(2). Maintaining up to 2.44 m draft for carrying cargo vessels by opening up stretches of 25 km

waterways: Laharhat- Veduria ;

(3) Maintain up to 2.44 m draft for carrying cargo vessels by opening up 30 km waterways:

Shahaberhat- Tungibari- Laharhat;

[Type text]

(4). Opening up 35 km Sadarghat (Dhaka) – Berulia (Ashulia) section of the Turag river for cargo

vessels maintaining 1.85 m draft;

(5). Removal of seasonally created shoals in the ferry route Paturia-Baghabari ensuring movement

of 1.99 m draft vessels round the year;

(6). Maintaining proper navigability of 38 km river route Demra- Ghorasal- Palash for smooth

movement of cargo vessels of 2.44 m draft throughout the year;

(7). Maintaining proper navigability of 71 km river route Hularhat- Charchapila- Gopalganj for cargo

vessels and oil tankers of 2.44 m draft ensuring round the year fuel supply to proposed

Haridaspur power plant;

(8). Maintaining proper navigability of 40 km river route Narayanganj-Dadkandi for cargo vessels

and oil tankers of 2.44 m draft ensuring round the year fuel supply to proposed Titus power

plant at Daudkandi;

(9-12). Maintaining proper navigability of 122 km, 100 km, 120 km and 140 km river routes Dhaka-

Ramchar- Madaripur, Dhaka- Shariatpur, Chandpur- Nandirbazar- shikarpur- Hularhat and

Dhaka- Sureswar- Angaria-Madaripur for vessels of 2.44 m draft ensuring round the year

movement.

5. Identification and Assessment of Options

The number 1 proposed route is 187 km long consisting of flows on Ichamati, Padma, Arialkhan and

Shitalakhya rivers which carries 56,000 passengers and 1.83 lakh metric tons of goods and cargo per

annum (BIWTA Annual Report). Different types of river craft use the route include small cargo vessels,

engine boats and trawlers. The numbers are estimated to be 1000, 1100 and 12500 respectively. The

route serves the rural areas around Dhaka providing supplies of daily necessities like rice, paddy, milk,

fish and vegetables to the metropolis and getting supplies of essential commodities from Dhaka. The

route has become seasonal because of river siltation and transport services are available only during

monsoon. BIWTA has completed hydrographic survey of the route in 2009 (Report enclosed). Dredging

of 110.0 lac m3 of earth will remove different shoals en-route and make the channel 2.44m deep for all

seasons so that 1.83 m draft vessels could ply round the year. The second and third projects will

consisted of dredging 55 km of Tetulia river to facilitate carrying passengers and goods by single and

double decker launches and cargo vessels in all seasons. It was estimated that the route carries 24.85 lac

passenger and 2.10 lac tons of cargo annually. The 4th route is part of Dhaka Circular route which is also

operated seasonally carrying 11.0 lac passengers and 15.0 lac tons of goods annually. Round the year

navigability will encourage introduction of regular passenger boat services help reducing congestion in

the city streets. The 5th project is keeping navigation channel of the Jamuna river open round the year to

carry fuel, fertilizer, food grain, etc crucial agriculture inputs from Dhaka, Chittagong and Mongla to

Baghabari. 6th scheme of the project is dredging 38 km of river route to ensuring navigability of

Shitalakhya river serving jute, textile, fertilizer and other heavy industries alongside the banks from

[Type text]

Narayanganj up to Palash. It was reported that 36.14 lac tons of goods are transported by 7000 cargo

vessels through this route annually. The 7th and 8th schemes of the project are newly proposed routes fo

facilitate carrying fuel to upcoming two power plants at Gopalganj and Daudkandi. The 9th scheme of

the project is to develop navigability of 122 km of Dhaka- Madaripur route in the river Arial Kha

removing shoals at different places. It is estimated that the route carries 4.10 lac passengers and 0.26

lac tons of cargo by using 2000 vessels per annum. The 10th scheme of the project is to increase draft in

100 km of the Padma river to 3.04 m removing shoals at different places to retain navigability during low

tide situation. It was estimated that 3.63 lac of passengers and 0.17 lac tons of cargo is transported

annually through this route. The scheme 11th and 12th are dredging of 120 km of Chandpur-Hularhat and

140 km of Dhaka-Angaria-Madaripur river routes to 3.04 m draft to facilitate all types of vessels during

dry season and in low tide situation. Both of these routes are important for the people of the area as

they have no alternative to rivers. It is estimated that these routes carry 81.03 lac tons of cargo and 5.48

lac of passengers annually by 13000 trips of launches and 18000 trips of cargo vessels. In spite of these

thousands of country boats and trawlers ply the routes every year.

6. Description of Work

Proposed capital dredging will be implemented for 953 km of river channel at depths of 2.44 m and 3.04

m depending on the nature and class of routes in 5 years. The duration of project is 2011-2016. The

physical works of the project will be implemented simultaneously in all major routes engaging both

private and public sector equipment following the hydrographic survey report and recommendations.

The estimated dredging quantity will be 316 lac m3. Table 6.1 presents the estimated dredging quantity.

Table 6.1: Dredging Requirements Proposed:

Sl. Dredging routes Name of river Route

Length (km)

Dredging Qty.

(in lac m3)

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

Dhaka-Taltala-peajkhali-Keorakandi

Laharhat- Veduria

Shahaberhat-Tungibari-Laharhat

Sadarghat (Dhaka) – Berulia (Ashulia)

Paturia-Baghabari

Demra-Ghorashal-Palash

Hularhat- Charchapila- Gopalganj

Narayanganj-Daudkandi

Dhaka-Ramchar-Madaripur

Dhaka-Shariatpur

Chandpur-Nandirbazar- Shikarpur-

Hularhat

Dhaka- Sureswar- Angaria- Madaripur

Ichamati

Tetulia/Arialkha

Tetulia

Turag

Jamuna

Shitalakhya

Kaliganga/Madhumati

Meghna/Shitalakhya

Arialkha

Padma

Dakatia/Shandhya

Padma/Dupaldia

187

25

30

35

45

38

71

40

122

100

120

140

111.0

15.0

16.0

15.0

15.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

15.0

30.0

15.0

48.0

Total 953.0 316.0

Source: BIWTA Hydrographic Survey, 2010

[Type text]

7. Cost estimate

Total estimated cost of the project is Tk. 508.46 crore. The estimates were prepared on the basis of 2010

market price. The costs include manpower, consultancy, engineering survey and design, physical work,

equipment, administrative and contingencies. Table 7.1 presents the cost estimate.

Table 7.1: Cost Estimate

Items Amount Unit Rate (lac Tk.) Total (lac Tk.)

Manpower Salaries 260.00

Land Acquisition/lease 3000.00

Crop Compensation 40.00

Consultancy Fee 200.00

Engineering Survey 100.00

Construction of earthen

dykes

1350.00

Dredging work by dredger

(private dredger)

28500.00

Dredging work by BIWTA

dredger

15120.00

Ancillary work 200.00

Hydrographic survey 200.00

Computer with printer and

accessories (6 no.)

10.00

House boat, pick up and

jeep

375.00

Contingency (other misc.

costs)

20.00

Price contingency (3%

under capital component)

1480.00

Total 50846.00

Source: BIWTA, 2010

Part II: Appraisal against PAF Indicators

8. SED1A: Percent of Poor people in project area of influence (Zone of influence)

Since the proposed river routes dredging involve class II and class III routes for regional category mostly

serves rural centers, ghats/hats and carrying mostly agriculture produces to the consumption centers

the zone of influence can be considered 3 km both sides of the routes (Table 3.1). Determination of ZOI

should be done through field survey. For simplicity let us suppose 10% of the area under project upazila

is included in ZOI. Upazila population, poverty statistics and other socioeconomic data can be collected

from Population Census and BBS publications. The rest of the information and data are calculated as per

guidelines of the IWT PAF. Following Table provide the calculation of the SED1A indicators:

[Type text]

Table 8.1: Calculation of SED1A Indicator

Upazila/Sub-

district

Area sq.

km (A)

Population

(B)

Population

density (C)

% of poor

people in

upazila (D)

Area

within

ZOI in sq

km (E)

Population

of ZOI

(F=C*E)

Number

of poor

people

(G=F*D)

Munshiganj 160.79 326,060 2028 27.95 16.07 32606 9113

Gazaria 130.92 137,660 1051 29.99 13.09 13766 3848

Gopalganj 391.35 320,340 819 29.59 39.13 32034 8954

Narayanganj 100.74 886,600 8801 29.76 10.07 88660 24780

Demra 51.1 421,540 8249 40.69 5.11 42154 11782

Narshighdi 213.44 582,020 2727 33.90 21.34 58202 16267

Noria 240.02 225,560 940 37.47 24.00 22556 6304

Zazira 239.53 186,720 780 39.18 23.95 18672 5219

Shariatpur 167.86 122,900 732 47.73 16.78 12290 3435

Madaripur 313.81 329,040 1049 30.84 31.38 32904 9197

Kalkini 279.98 272,120 972 36.79 27.99 27212 7606

Comilla 280.96 612,680 2181 25.18 28.09 61268 17124

Meghna 91.69 97,000 1058 51.80 9.16 9700 2711

Muladi 261.02 178,620 684 33.18 26.10 17862 4992

Uzirpur 248.35 242,720 977 33.31 24.83 24272 6784

Pirojpur 378.37 223,080 590 38.94 37.83 22308 6235

Sirajganj 325.77 469,780 1442 55.48 32.57 46078 13130

Bera 248.6 231,180 930 58.77 24.86 23118 6461

Shahjadpur 267.83 266,980 997 59.00 26.78 26698 7462

Total 4392.13 6132600 2227 40.8 613260 243352

Now basic score with respect to the SED1A indicator = 40.8%

The basic score is converted to scale score using the formula:

jkl1J'"f!+��K(+�K$ =4567849:;<=9:>

?@AB@8?CDEAFCDG-10

= (40-42)/ (70-42)*10

=-0.71

Since the resulted score is negative the value of the score should be considered zero as per PAF.

9. SED 1B: Poor people and women among project users

Three sets of data are necessary for calculating the SED2A indicator: passenger traffic data, passenger

occupancy data and percentage of poor people among the occupants for all classes of vessels. BIWTA

should have collected all necessary data on the subject organizing a crush program. In IWT passenger

vessels there has always been higher occupancy and crowded on board than the approved capacity.

During festivals and occasions the crafts carry much more passengers than the capacity of vessels.

[Type text]

Therefore, data should be collected through field surveys for accuracy rather than considering the

government approved capacity. Once the data is available then Table 2.5 in the PAF can be used to

calculate the indicator as follows.

Table 9.1: Format for calculating percentage of poor among total passengers

Vessel Type AADT /Annual

Vessel Trips (A)

Average

occupancy (B)

Total number

of users

(C=A*B)

% of poor

(D)

Number of

poor users

(E=C*D)

Passenger

Steamer

300 300 90000 40 36000

Passenger

Launch

1600 150 240000 50 120000

Coastal Vessels 200 150 30000 60 18000

Sea Truck 350 200 70000 60 42000

Ferries 15000 250 750000 30 225000

Engine Boat 500 50 25000 60 15000

Trawler 400 20 8000 70 5600

Total 1213000 38 461600

Note: Figures are assumed.

Now say, the basic score with respect to SED1B is = 461600/121300 = 38%

This basic score can be converted into a scaled score in the following way

SED1B Indicator Score = 38/3 = 12.66

It is >10, therefore the score adopted as 10.

10. SED 2B: Women among project users

There has been no survey on the women ridership in BIWTA. We can assume that at least 25% of all

users of IWT vessels and boats are women. Therefore, the basic score is 8.3.

11. Job creation for local people

It is assumed that most of the dredging work will be accomplished by automatic suction dredgers,

therefore, the local labour input will be minimum, say 20 percent. Local labour will be used only for

dressing and leveling the dumping sites. Therefore, the scaled score of this indicator is = 20/10 = 2.

Weighted scores are shown in AST.

12. Job creation for women

It is suggested that for dredging work the participation of women worker will be almost zero. Therefore,

as per PAF manual the scaled score against this indicator will be zero.

[Type text]

13. RTM1A: Land acquisition required

The proposal did not mention the amount of land required for implementing the project. The executing

agency (BIWTA) must do the proper survey and exercise to identify the land take required and prepare

land acquisition plan to confirm the land take proposals. However, total land take for the umbrella

project could be assumed 200 hectares, some of which will be taken for long term lease from the

government or private owners. The estimated cost for land take and resettlement is estimated Tk. 3000

lac. The calculation of the score may be presented as follows:

RTM1A score = 10 – (200/500) *10 = 10 -.4*10

= 10-4 = 6

The weighted score against this indicator is shown in the AST.

14. RTM1B: Number of people to be Resettled

The proposal must confirm the number of project affected persons (PAP) under different categories and

potential locations for resettlement through field surveys. This will follow the resettlement guidelines of

the government or major donor agencies like the World Bank and ADB. Let us assume that 500 persons/

household are required to be resettled in this case. Then the calculation the scaled score of the indicator

will be as follows:

TRM1B = 10 – (500/500) *4

= 10 – 4

= 6

The final weighted score is presented in the AST.

15. TRE 1A: Dredging IWT routes Cost - Benefit Analysis Indicator

14.1 Financial and Economic Cost

For cost benefit analysis, the planner must construct the costs and benefit streams of the project during

its economic life. The financial costs and benefits are to be converted to the economic costs and benefits

applying suitable social discount factor (SDF). Following table presents the cost stream, SDF, financial

and economic costs of the project.

Table 14.1: Financial and Economic Cost s

Items Amount Financial

Cost (in lac

Tk.)

SCF (%) Economic Cost

(in lac Tk.)

Manpower Salaries 260.00 0.85 221.00

Land Acquisition/lease 3000.00 0.85 2125.00

[Type text]

Crop Compensation 40.00 0.85 425.00

Consultancy Fee 200.00 0.85 34.00

Engineering Survey 100.00 0.85 170.00

Construction of earthen

dykes

1350.00 0.85 85.00

Dredging work by dredger

(private dredger)

28500.00 0.85 1147.50

Dredging work by BIWTA

dredger

15120.00 0.85 24225.00

Ancillary work 200.00 0.85 12852.00

Hydrographic survey 200.00 0.85 170.00

Computer with printer and

accessories (6 no.)

10.00 0.85 8.50

House boat, pick up and

jeep

375.00 0.85 318.75

Contingency (other misc.

costs)

20.00 0.85 17.00

Price contingency (3%

under capital component)

1480.00 0.85 1258.00

Total 50846.00 0.85 43226.75

The economic life of the project is considered 15 years with routine maintenance dredging.

14.2 Dredging Maintenance Cost

The nature of improvement work will be of capital dredging. It was assumed to take 5 years for

completing the capital dredging. The cost of capital dredging will be Tk. 508.4 crore spent in 5 year

period. After capital dredging finished, maintenance dredging will needed to be continued on regular

basis so that navigability can be maintained and retained in the river and services continued. Channel

maintenance and operation cost was estimated to be 25% of the investment cost per year (estimated

cost of BIWTA used after converting to economic cost).

14.3 Project Benefits:

The project benefits identified and mentioned in the project proposal (DPP) were as the improving

navigability of the identified 12 waterway routes throughout the year contributing cheaper transport of

passengers and goods. Transport project benefits usually accrued from saving of vessels operating costs

and travel time costs for passenger and cargo. The amount of benefits to be accrued from the project

were not identified by type of traffic, vessels and routes or quantified in any way. In DPP a crude

assumption of annual benefits of Tk. 1500 lac was made out of hunch without proper basis of

estimation. This was not proper act of project preparation and appraisal. The executing agency must do

proper research and exercise to identify and quantify each bit of benefits to be considered in the

economic analysis. However, the sample exercise followed the following procedure:

14.3.1 Traffic Identified (Annual)

[Type text]

1. Traffic in scheme 1 consists of 0.56 lac passengers and 1.83 lac tons of cargo carried by 1100

pass- vessels, 1100 cargo vessels and 12500 trawlers

2. Traffic in scheme 2 consists of 9.50 lac passengers and 0.10 lac tons of cargo carried by 26

launches x 365 day

3. Traffic in scheme 3 consisted of 3.06 lac passengers and 0.08 lac tons of cargo carried by 42

launches x 365 days

4. Traffic in scheme 4 consisted of 11.50 lac passengers and 15.60 lac tons of cargo carried by

4000 launch trips, 29000 cargo vessel trips and 11000 trawler trips

5. In scheme 5 there is no passenger traffic but 1.23 lac tons of cargo was carried by 392 cargo

vessels trips

6. No passenger traffic but 36.14 lac tons of cargo was carried by 7000 cargo vessel trips and 11000

trawler trips

7. 4.10 lakh passengers and 0.26 lakh tons of cargo is carried: 2000 vessels (launch, cargo and

trawlers use the route)

8. 3.63 lakh passengers and 0.17 lakh tons of cargo is carried: 2000 vessels (double and single

decker launches, cargo and engine boats are used)

9. Fuel transport for Proposed power plant at Gopalganj (not quantified)

10. Fuel transport for proposed power plant at Daudkandi (not quantified)

11. 5.48 lakh of passengers and 81.03 lakh tons of cargo was carried: 13000 trips of launches, 18000

trips of cargos and 7500 trips of trawlers are used.

12. Included in No 11.

Traffic on different routes is summarized in Table 14.3.1. Traffic projection was not made because

objective of the project is to retain the existing traffic from diversion in the face of depleting traffic

growth in those routes. Benefit calculation was therefore based on the existing traffic as presented in

the table.

Table 14.3.1: Summary of Traffic Data of 12 project Routes

Sl. Dredging routes Passenger

Traffic/year

(in lakh)

Cargo

Traffic/year

(in Lakh ton)

Number of vessels: launch,

cargo, trawler/engine

boat/year

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

Dhaka-Taltala-peajkhali-

Keorakandi

Laharhat- Veduria

Shahaberhat-Tungibari-Laharhat

Sadarghat (Dhaka) – Berulia

Paturia-Baghabari

Demra-Ghorashal-Palash

Hularhat- Charchapila- Gopalganj

Narayanganj-Daudkandi

Dhaka-Ramchar-Madaripur

Dhaka-Shariatpur

Chandpur-Nandirbazar-

Shikarpur-Hularhat

0.56

9.50

3.06

11.50

-

-

-

-

4.10

3.63

5.48

1.83

0.10

0.80

15.60

1.23

36.14

-

-

0.26

0.17

81.03

1100, 1100, 12,500

26x365 (launch)

42x365 (launch)

4000, 29000, 11000

392 (ferry vessels)

0, 7000, 11000

-

-

2000

2000

13000, 18000, 7500 (trips)

[Type text]

12.

Dhaka- Sureswar- Angaria-

Madaripur

- - -

Total 40.89 137.16

14.3.2 Benefit Estimation:

Usually transport sector project benefits are generated from saving from vehicle/vessel operating cost

(VOC) and savings from travel time cost (TTC) of passenger and vehicles/vessels. But it can also be

calculated from savings of system cost from using alternative modes. Due to paucity of IWT data the

usual calculation of benefits could not be done from VOC and TTC savings of traffic used the routes.

Following table 14.3.2 provides the basis for system cost comparability in Bangladesh where per pass-

km and ton-km cost is presented for all three major modes-road, rail and IWT. The table indicates that

IWT is cheaper than both road and rail. In the present base case situation (do nothing option) the IWT

traffic will be diverted to road as there has been no viable rail available. In the project case (implement

dredging works) situation the traffic will be remained with IWT saving economic transport cost would

have incurred if road was used. Therefore benefits assessed is as system cost saved by using cheaper

mode IWT.

Table 14.3.2: Published cost data by mode

Variable Road Rail IWT

Cost ton-km (Tk.) 4.5 2.74 0.99

Cost pass-km

(TK.)

1.0 0.6 0.22

Speed (km) 45 35 10

Lead distance

(pass)

70 95 60

Lead distance

(cargo)

80 100 100

Source: TSCW Capacity Enhancement Project, 2011

Average lead distance in ITW for passenger could be as 95 km but cargo always has longer distance say

200 km for all routes; but the lead distance for proposed routes should be less as 60 km for passengers

and 80 km for cargo as those are local routes. The total volume of annual passenger traffic is therefore,

245.34 million pass-km and 1097.28 million ton-km (12 routes).

14.3.3 Traffic diversion and seasonality:

In the absence of dredging activities 40% of the traffic would be affected (7 months fully navigable and 5

months partly or fully closed) and diverted to road (rail not available) because of siltation and closer of

route. Therefore, annual cost savings will be:

Passenger’s savings (40%): 98.14 million pass-km x Tk. 0.78 = Tk. 76.55 million

Cargo cost savings (40%): 438.91 million ton-km x Tk. 3.51 = Tk.1540.58 million

[Type text]

Total Savings = Tk. 1617.13 million/year. However we can use the following comparative cost data for

economic analysis:

14.3.4 Economic Analysis

River dredging is an expensive exercise but very short lived in nature. It is not certain that whether next

monsoon flood will cause silted it again with higher rate of deposits. However, the project life can be

considered 15 years maximum with proper annual maintenance dredging. All costs and benefits are

presented in economic term and in Million Taka. Discount rate used was 12%. Economic analysis is

presented in Table 24.1 in the above.

The result of the economic analysis shows that the project is economically viable with 18% EIRR, positive

NPV at Tk. 71.58 million and 1.99 BC ratio. The results generated from derived data suggested that

indicators are robust to recommend the project investment.

Table 24.1: Economic Analysis of BIWTA 12 Route Dredging Project

Sl. No. Year Investment cost Maintenance cost Total Cost Passenger Cargo Total BenefitNet Benfit

1 2011 864.54 864.54 -864.54

2 2012 864.54 864.54 -864.54

3 2013 864.54 864.54 -864.54

4 2014 864.54 864.54 -864.54

5 2015 864.54 864.54 -864.54

6 2016 812.5 812.50 88.52 1629.10 1717.62 905.12

7 2017 812.5 812.50 92.95 1694.26 1787.21 974.71

8 2018 812.5 812.50 97.60 1762.03 1859.63 1047.13

9 2019 812.5 812.50 102.48 1832.51 1934.99 1122.49

10 2020 812.5 812.50 107.60 1905.81 2013.41 1200.91

11 2021 812.5 812.50 112.98 1982.04 2095.02 1282.52

12 2022 812.5 812.50 118.63 2061.33 2179.95 1367.45

13 2023 812.5 812.50 124.56 2143.78 2268.34 1455.84

14 2024 812.5 812.50 130.79 2229.53 2360.32 1547.82

15 2025 812.5 812.50 137.33 2318.71 2456.04 1643.54

16 2026 812.5 812.50 144.19 2411.46 2555.65 1743.15

17 2027 812.5 812.50 151.40 2507.92 2659.32 1846.82

18 2028 812.5 812.50 158.97 2608.24 2767.21 1954.71

19 2029 812.5 812.50 166.92 2712.57 2879.49 2066.99

20 812.5 812.50 175.27 2821.07 2996.34 2183.84

EIRR= 18%

NPV= $71.58

NPVc= $72.04

NPVb= $143.62

BCR= 1.99

Cost Stream Benefit Stream

[Type text]

A word of caution must be raised here regarding the plausibility of maintenance costs assumption. The

annual maintenance cost was estimated in DPP at par with annual investment which will gradually

surpass the annual investment amount later on.

16. TRE 1B: Reliability Indicator

It was informed that many of the secondary routes (Class III and class IV) such as Dhaka-Taltala-

Peajkhali- Madaripur, Dhaka- Berulia, Dhaka- Madaripur -Shariatpur, etc remained partially or fully

closed about 120 days minimum in a year during dry season. In other routes services are available but

take longer time to reach destination due to formation of shoals, low tide situations and detour routes.

The scheme will ensure the availability of services in all seasons. The score of indicator will be 120/5 =24

days. The score is therefore, 10 maximum.

17. Funding potential

Entire investment will be made by the government therefore, no private funding potentials were

evaluated on this point. Therefore, the value of this indicator is zero.

18. Multi-modal integration

The multimodal impact of the proposed scheme looks positive when traffic avail opportunities as

complementing services at cheaper costs but not in all cases. In some cases where river routes remain

closed, traffic used to divert to roads although in circuitous way with higher costs of transport.

Multimodal impacts for all 12 routes needs to be researched on case to case basis but apparently little

impact can be thought of.

19. Safety

IWT journey is always vulnerable and in the past there were several major accident killing hundreds of

people in southern coastal regions. But in recent years with advance warning system the situation has

improved to some extent. Lack of data unable the writer to calculate the value of this indicator.

Recently the road has proved to be more hazardous than waterway or rail and more safety effort is

needed in road sector. However, more safety measures particularly for night driving in IWT have to be

undertaken to secure IWT travels.

20. Presentation of Summary Appraisal Report

Following table presents the summary appraisal report. The weighted average score of the project is

44.90 which is rated a fair project not very good. The relative position of the project among the

competing projects in different transport projects will depend on scores of other projects and funding

situation for the sector.

Appraisal Summary Table (AST)

[Type text]

Broad

Objective

Objective Sub-objective Quantitative

Assessment

(Basic score)

Social Score

(SS=RS applied

on formula)

Weights

(Fixed)

Weighted Score

(WS = CS times

respective

weightage)

Equity Social and

Economic

Development

(SED)

Pro-poor

economic

growth

(SED1A)

% of poor

people in ZOI

40.8%

0 1.0 0

% of poor

among the user

38%

10 0.6 6

% of local

people among

employed

20%

2 0.6 1.2

Gender Equity

(SED2)

% of women

among total

users 25%

8.3 0.5 4.2

% of women

among workers

0%

0 0.5 0

Number of

people to be

settled 200

10 0.8 8


Efficiency

(TRE)

Economic

Efficiency

(TRE1)

EIRR in %

18%

6 3.0 18

Reliability

(TRE2)

Availability and

timely journey

50%

5 0.5 2.5


Finance

FIRR (%)

0%

0 0.0 0

Multimodal

Integration

Integration

with rail and

road

EIRR (%)

0%

0 0.5 0


navigability

Number of days

24 days

10 0.5 5


and on-board

% of accident

reduced

0%

0 0.5 0

Total weighted Score: 44.90

Interpretation of Results

After completing all analysis and preparing and finalized the above project appraisal report in the AST

the interpretation can be made based on the score in the following table:

Score Ranges Interpretation

[Type text]

50 and above Very good

40-50 Fair

35-40 Poor

Below 35 Very poor

The overall score of the analysis is 44.90 out of 100 marks. The project is fairly good and can be

recommendation for implementation if fund is available and no competing projects in the sector.

Appendices:

Appendix-1: Project Area Map

Appendix-2: Project Profile

Appendix-3: BIWTA responsibility in terms of Database

It was reported that BIWTA lacks data bases and stopped collection of data particularly for traffic,

transport, operating cost, value of travel time, boat capacity and so on. For project preparation in its

true perspective the authority must initiate field surveys in the following areas:

• Collection of passenger and cargo traffic data by vessel type, by category, by commodity, by

origin and destination and compile traffic volumes by route;

• Collect passenger occupancy survey for all types of vessels and by route and identify % of poor

users;

• Collection of VOC for all types of vessels, calculate unit passenger cost (passenger-km cost), unit

freight cost (ton –km cost) and so on;

• Collect travel time data by type of craft and route both for passengers and cargo, calculate

travel time cost for them, assess time delay at alternative detour routes;

• Collect and compare unit costs of passenger- km and ton-km for different modes of transport

and relative fares and freight charges; and

• Calculate average travel distance by passengers (km) and cargo (km).

Appendix-4: Reference Table for Economic Analysis

Appendix 5: Statistical Data

Appendix 6: The steering Committee

Appendix 7: Technical Working Group

technical assistance consultant’s report · 2014. 9. 29. · technical assistance consultant’s...

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