technical session 4 – model development & calibration 4.1 calibration of the trans model for...
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Technical Session 4 –
Model Development & Calibration
4.1 Calibration of the TRANS Model for the National Capital Region (Ottawa-Hull)
Don Stephens P. Eng.Don Stephens P. Eng.Manager, Data ModelingManager, Data Modeling and Forecasting and Forecasting Region of Ottawa Carleton Region of Ottawa Carleton
Mark Campbell P.Eng.Mark Campbell P.Eng.Senior Transportation Planner Senior Transportation Planner
Maxim Morrison HershfieldMaxim Morrison Hershfield
TRANS/NCR 3 min
1995 Model Calibration 12min
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
regions, transit authorities, provincial ministries and regions, transit authorities, provincial ministries and federal governmentfederal government
joint cooperation in areas of common interestjoint cooperation in areas of common interest modelingmodeling data collectiondata collection
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
National Capital Region
MRC
CUO
RMOC
Ott awa
River
PONTIAC
CHELSEA
CANTLEY
WESTCARLETON
KANATA
GOULBOURN
RIDEAU
OSGOODE
CUMBERLAND
GLOUCESTERNEPEAN
OTTAWA
ROCKCLIFFE PARKVANIER
BUCKINGHAM
MASSONGATINEAU
AYLMERHULL
VALDES
MONTS
L'ANGE-GARDIEN
LA PÊCHE
NOTRE DAMEDE LA SALETTE
REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY
OF OTTAWA-CARLETON
MUNICIPALITÉ RÉGIONALE DE
COMTÉ COLLINES-DE-L'OUTAOUAIS
COMMUNAUTÉ URBAINE
DE L'OUTAOUAIS
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
RMOC
MRC
CUO
POPULATIONPOPULATION
1,100,0001,100,000
EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT
540,000540,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Central Area
POPULATIONPOPULATION
60,00060,000
NON AUTO MODESNON AUTO MODES
>55%>55%
EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT
150,000150,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Traffic Zones/Screenlines
HULLHULLALYMERALYMER GATINEAUGATINEAU
ORLEANSORLEANS
KANATAKANATA
OTTAWAOTTAWA
BARRHAVENBARRHAVEN
Interprovincial
GreenbeltGreenbelt
Eag
leso
n
CNR WestCNR East
Gre
en’s
Cr
Russell/417
CPRRideauCentral
RideauNorth
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Trips per Day
Population
Employment
Dwelling Units0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Past Surveys
OHATS ’63
871,000
‘72 Survey
1,438,000
‘77 Survey
1,569,000
‘86 Survey
2,297,000
‘95 Survey 2,720,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
1995 NCR OD Survey Sept to Dec’95
Telephone SurveyTelephone Survey
- 21,000 interviews/households- 21,000 interviews/households
- 56,000 persons- 56,000 persons
- 145,000 trips- 145,000 trips
- 5 to 20 % sample- 5 to 20 % sample
TTRRAANNSS
Public Transit
Cycle
Auto Driver/Passenger
Walk
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
TRANS MODEL
1995 CALIBRATION
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
1995 TRANS MODEL1995 TRANS MODEL
INTER-ZONALTRIPS
MODALSPLIT
MODEL
INTRA-ZONALTRIPS
ASSIGNMENT
EXTERNALTRIP TABLE
OBSERVEDMODE SPLIT
PEAK HOURFACTORS BY
TRIP PURPOSE
TRIPGENERATION
(PM PEAKPERIOD)
TRIPDISTRIBUTION
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
NETWORK INNOVATIONS
• Network outside Greenbelt expanded in detailNetwork outside Greenbelt expanded in detail
• Auto volume delay functions based on posted Auto volume delay functions based on posted speed and road capacityspeed and road capacity
• Transit volume delay functions dependant on Transit volume delay functions dependant on auto speeds along shared linksauto speeds along shared links
• Macros convert ultimate network to 1995 and Macros convert ultimate network to 1995 and 2021 networks2021 networks
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
45
800
50
convention is fd ( capacity/2 ) ( first digit of posted speed )
fd45 = 50 *60/(length*1.3 )* (1+ .6 * ((volau + volad)/ (lanes* 800))^4)
AUTO VOLUME DELAY FUNCTIONS
Posted Nominal Capacity ....Speed 400 600 800 1000
20 22 32 42 52 ....
30 23 33 43 53 ....
40 24 34 44 54 ....
50 25 35 45 55 ....
60 26 36 46 56 ....
70 27 37 47 57 ....
.... .... .... .... .... ....
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
TRANSIT VOLUME DELAY FUNCTIONS
• ttf 70 = auto time on link * 1.6ttf 70 = auto time on link * 1.6 (transit route shared with private vehicles)
• ttf 73 = auto time on link * 2.5ttf 73 = auto time on link * 2.5 ( several CBD routes)
• ttf 71 = (length/15) * 60ttf 71 = (length/15) * 60 ( bus only lanes with 15 kph along the roadway)
• ttf 72 = (length/48) * 60ttf 72 = (length/48) * 60 ( transitway links with average speed of 48 kph)
• ttf 74 = (length/70) * 60ttf 74 = (length/70) * 60 ( bus-only lanes along highways, average speed 70 kph)
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Trip Purpose Regression Equation R^2
Work to Home
SecondarySchoolto Home
PRODUCTION.446 * EMP(other) Ottawa and Hull central areas 0.97
.390 * EMP(other) Ontario 0.94
.433 * EMP(other) Quebec 0.91
ATTRACTION.178 * POP 25-44 + .192 * POP 45-64 Ottawa and Hull
central areas0.97
.348 * POP 25-44 + .258 * POP 45-64 Ontario 0.98
.405 * POP 25-44 + .117 * POP 45-64 Quebec 0.99
PRODUCTION
ATTRACTION
.142 * OD_SCHS 0.59
.07072 * POP 15-24 + .121 * POP 10 -14 0.77
TRIP GENERATION EQUATIONS
EMP (other): total employment minus retail employmentPop 25-44: population in age cohortOD_SCHS: secondary school enrollment
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Regression Equation R^2 Trip Purpose
Post Sec_ Sch to Home
Other to Home
Non Home Based
Leave Home
PRODUCTION .117 * POST_SEC_ENROLLMENT 0.96
ATTRACTION .074 * POP15-24 + .0059 * POP25-44 0.83
PRODUCTION .052 * POP + .0711 * EMP + 1.947 * GLA 0.85
ATTRACTION .115 * POP 0.96
PRODUCTION .0542 * DWEL + .176 * EMP + .578 * GLA 0.93
ATTRACTION .0902 * EMP + .128 * DWEL + 1.69 * GLA 0.89
PRODUCTION .187 * DWEL 0.9
ATTRACTION .062 * EMP + 1.06 * GLA 0.57
TRIP GENERATION EQUATIONS
CONT...
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
TRIP GENERATION (1995 LAND USE)
Trip Purpose PM Peak Period Trips
PM Peak Hour Factors
PM Peak Hour Trips
Work to Home Production 163,0000.502
81,800Attraction 162,000 81,300
SSch to Home Production 16,600
0.2243,700
Attraction 16,700 3,700
Post SSch to Home Production 9,0000.347
3,100Attraction 11,000 3,800
Other to Home Production 108,000
0.43346,800
Attraction 110,000 47,600
Non Home Based Production 108,0000.440
47,500Attraction 111,000 48,800
Leave Home Production 70,000
0.40028,000
Attraction 42,000 16,800
Total Production 474,600 210,900Attraction 452,700 202,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODELTRIP DISTRIBUTION MODEL
Work to HomeWork to Home
• GravityGravity• 2 Dimensional2 Dimensional• 4 Equations4 Equations
- Ontario to Ontario- Ontario to Ontario- Ontario to Quebec- Ontario to Quebec- Quebec to Quebec- Quebec to Quebec- Quebec to Ontario- Quebec to Ontario
Remaining Trip PurposesRemaining Trip Purposes
Gravity Model, Same Style Gravity Model, Same Style as the Work to Home Modelas the Work to Home Model
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
MODAL SPLIT MODELMODAL SPLIT MODEL
• 2 Modes2 Modes - Auto Persons & Auto Vehicles- Auto Persons & Auto Vehicles - Transit- Transit
• Logit ModelLogit Model - Work to Home (UTA)- Work to Home (UTA) - School to Home (UTA)- School to Home (UTA)
• Diversion CurvesDiversion Curves - All Other Trips- All Other Trips
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Mode Trip Cost Total Travel Time Number of Vehicles Province Constantper Household
Auto Person -0.008641 -0.0096
Transit -0.008641 -0.0096 -1.738 -0.8367 0.9091
Auto cost -- Consists of fuel consumption and a parking cost in cents.Transit fare -- Transit fare in cents Veh/household -- Has three groups, 0 for no vehicle/hh, 1 for 1 vehicle/hh, 2 for more than 1 vehicle per household. Province -- 0 for Ontario and 1 for Quebec residents. Travel Time -- Time in minutes to travel from trip origin to trip destination.
Changing the variables will in turn change the auto person modal split to...
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
% Change in % Change in Auto Mode Auto Mode
SplitSplit
Auto Time +10%Auto Time +10%Auto Cost +10%Auto Cost +10%
Transit Time +10%Transit Time +10%
Veh/HH from 1 to 2+Veh/HH from 1 to 2+
Transit Fare +10%Transit Fare +10%
HOME BASED WORK TRIP LOGIT MODEL
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Mode Travel TimeNumber of Vehicles Province Constant
per HouseholdAuto Person
Transit
-4% -3% -2% -1% 0 % 1 % 2 % 3 %
% Change in % Change in Auto Mode Auto Mode
SplitSplit
SCHOOL TO HOME LOGIT MODEL
Out of Vehicle
-0.0926 -1.083 -0.527 2.85
Veh/household -- Has three groups, 0 for no vehicle/hh, 1 for 1 vehicle/hh, 2 for more than 1 vehicle per household. Province -- 0 for Ontario and 1 for Quebec residents.
Out of vehicle -- 0 for auto mode, For transit, total travel time less in vehicle travel time. Changing the variables will in turn change the auto person modal split to...
Transit Out Of Vehicle Travel Time +10%
Vehicle/HH From 1 to 2+
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Auto Mode Split = 1.052 - 0.26 * (1/Transit / Auto Time)
R^2= .91
Auto Person Trips 77,800
Transit Person trips 6,300
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.6
Transit / Auto Time
Au
to M
od
e S
pli
t
Observed
Linear (Observed)
Auto Person Mode Choice Non Work Trips, UTA - (Auto Time 0-15 Min)
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Auto Mode Split = 1.071 - 0.249 * (1/Transit / Auto Time)
R^2= .71
Auto Person Trips 22,500
Transit Person trips 600
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
Transit / Auto Time
Au
to M
od
e S
pli
t
Observed
Linear (Observed)
Auto Person Mode Choice Non Work Trips, UTA - (Auto Time +15 Min)
1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 23 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
AUTO OCCUPANCY EQUATIONS
Trips being Modelled Equation R Squared
UTA*Work 1.25 - .00259 * distance 0.251Other 1.25 + .001186 * distance 0.127School 3.67 - .7481 * ln(distance) 0.84
OUTSIDE UTA**Work 1.071 + .00275 * distance 0.55Other 1.296 - .00187 * distance 0.18School 3 estimated
* UTA* UTA Trips with origin and destination in urban transit areaTrips with origin and destination in urban transit area
** Outside UTA** Outside UTA Trips with origin and/or destination outside Trips with origin and/or destination outside the urban transit areathe urban transit area
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
MODAL SPLIT RESULTS(INCLUDES EXTERNAL TRIPS)
Trip Total PersonsPurpose Trips
Work - OD Survey 78,800Model 81,300
School - OD Survey 7,390Model 7,430
Other - OD Survey 124,900Model 125,900
Total - OD Survey 223,900Model 227,500
Auto PersonTrips
59,60061,700
3,7303,580
116,900118,100
193,000196,200
Auto VehicleTrips
49,20049,200
1,7101,640
93,40089,300
155,200150,900
Transit Trips
19,20019,600
3,6703,850
7,9607,860
30,90031,300
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
1995 PEAK HOUR ASSIGNMENT(Outbound - Model Vs. Observed Counts)
Rideau River
CPR
Ottawa Central
Rideau Canal
Fallowfield
Eagleson
Green Creek
CNR West/ Acres
CNR East
Western Parkway
Leitrim/ Ramsayville
0 600040002000 8000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
• Model Overestimation• Model Underestimation
+6%
0%
+17%+1%
-1%
-7%
+15%
-4%
-17%-9%
-12%
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
1995 PEAK HOUR ASSIGNMENT(Outbound - Model Vs. Observed Counts)
Rideau River
CPR
Ottawa Central
Rideau Canal
Fallowfield
Eagleson
Green Creek
CNR West/ Acres
CNR East
Western Parkway
Leitrim/ Ramsayville
+31%
+13%-3%
-23%
-4%
+31%
-11%
-2%
+17%
+5%
-40%
• Transit •Auto Vehicle
0 600040002000 8000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
• Model Overestimation• Model Underestimation
+6%
0%
+17%+1%
-1%
-7%
+15%
-4%
-17%-9%
-12%
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Change in Demographics 1995 to 2021
Population (5 yrs and over)
Dwelling Units
Total Employment
Gross Leasable Area (in 100 ft2)
+44%+44%
+50%+50%
+55%+55%
+40%+40%
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
1995 and 2021 Travel DemandTotal Auto Person Trips
0 40,00020,000 60,000 180,00080,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Work
Other
+30%
+55%
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
1995 and 2021 Travel DemandTotal Auto Person Trips and Transit Trips
0 40,00020,000 60,000 180,00080,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
+120%
+55% • TransitTransit •Auto Persons
Work
Other
+30%
+55%
Don Stephens P. Eng.Don Stephens P. Eng.Manager, Data ModelingManager, Data Modeling and Forecasting and Forecasting Region of Ottawa Carleton Region of Ottawa Carleton
Mark Campbell P.Eng.Mark Campbell P.Eng.Senior Transportation Planner Senior Transportation Planner
Maxim Morrison HershfieldMaxim Morrison Hershfield
QUESTIONS ?
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
QUESTIONS ?