technology assessment (ta)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Technology Assessment (TA)
ESD.85 Oct 24, 2005
![Page 2: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Learning Objectives � Examine very different approaches to forecasting
technological change � Achieve understanding of amount of technological change
forecasting that is done � Achieve understanding of importance of use perspective (and
time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technologicalchange forecasting
� Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change forecasting
� Examine technological determinism, construction (social determinism), economic determinism and other approaches
![Page 3: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Agenda � Overview of TA � Student Presentations (5 min) � Chris Magee – Ford and Hybrids � Discussion
![Page 4: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Overview of TA � History of Tech Assessment (TA) � Types of TA � Purpose of TA � Methods of TA � (in)Famous Examples
![Page 5: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
History of Tech Assessment � 1950’s – � RAND
� 1964 World’s Fair � “Electricity Too Cheap to Meter”
� OTA (1972) � Other Govts. (UK, Germany, France)
![Page 6: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Types of TA � Forecasting � Impact Assessment � Scenario Analysis
![Page 7: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Purpose of TA � Awareness � Provide Warnings � Informational
� Strategic � Develop Plan for Specific Actors
� Constructive � Shape the Development Path
� Backcasting � Find Pathway to meet Goals
![Page 8: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Methods of TA � Scenario Analysis � Agent Based Models � System Dynamics � Decision Analysis
� Trend Extrapolation � Statistics and Regression
� Expert Solicitation � Delphi
� Roadmapping
![Page 9: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Infamous Examples
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.
- IBM Chairman Thomas Watson, 1943
![Page 10: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Infamous Examples
Computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps only weigh 1
1/2 tons.
- Popular Mechanics, 1949
![Page 11: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Infamous Examples
640K ought to be enough for anybody.
- Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates, 1981
![Page 12: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Futurama’s UnderSea City
Photo removed for copyright reasons. Model of undersea city from the 1964 New York World’s Fair.
![Page 13: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Bell’s Picture Phone
Photo removed for copyright reasons. Bell Telephone’s prototype PicturePhone, from 1964 New York World’s Fair.
![Page 14: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
Infamous Examples
Everything that can be invented has been invented.
- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899
![Page 15: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
TA Paradigm?
GARBAGE IN---GOSPEL OUT
- Fairchild Research and Development, 1969
![Page 16: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
References � Porter, Alan, et. al., “Technology Futures Analysis: Toward Integration of the Field and
New Methods”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 71, Issue 3,March 2004, Pages 287-303
� Jan Van Den Ende, Karel Mulder, Marjolijn Knot, Ellen Moors and Philip Vergragt,“Traditional and Modern Technology Assessment: Toward a Toolkit”, TechnologicalForecasting and Social Change, Volume 58, Issues 1-2 , 6 May 1998, Pages 5-21
� Porter, A. and Detampel, M., “Technology opportunities analysis” TechnologicalForecasting and Social Change, Volume 49, Issue 3, July 1995, Pages 237-255
� Roger C. Herdman and James E. Jensen, “The OTA story: The agency perspective” � Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 54, Issues 2-3 , February-
March 1997, Pages 131-143, Special Issue: Technology Assessment: The End ofOTA.
� Bruce Bimber and David H. Guston (Eds.), “Technology Assessment: The End ofOTA”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 54, Issues 2-3, Pages125-308 (February - March 1997)
� 1964 World’s Fair: http://naid.sppsr.ucla.edu/ny64fair/map-docs/technology.htm
![Page 17: Technology Assessment (TA)...time horizon of interest) on method chosen for technological change forecasting Appreciate the multi-dimensional nature of practical technological change](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f40b2ea3952382c3816e17c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsCambridge, Massachusetts
References � Porter, A., et. al., Forecasting and management of technology, New York:
Wiley, c1991. Ch 6-14. � Makridakis, S., Wheelright, S., and Hyndman, R.. Forcasting: Methods and
Applications, 3rd Edition, Wiley, 1998. � H.A. Linstone, M. Turoff, (eds.), The Delphi Method: Techniques and
Applications, 2002, Available at: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html.
� McClean, J. “Simulation Modeling”, Handbook of Futures Research, JibFowles, ed., CT: Greenwood Press, 1978.
� Johan Schot and Arie Rip, “The past and future of constructive technologyassessment”
� Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 54, Issues 2-3 ,February-March 1997, Pages 131-143, Technology Assessment: The Endof OTA.
� O.H. Bray, M.L. Garcia, Fundamentals of Technology Roadmapping,SAND97-0665, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, 1997, Available at: http://www.sandia.gov/PHMCOE/pdf/Sandia%27sFundamentalsofTech.pdf_____________________________________________________________________ .