The 2016 election:

How and why it’s

President TrumpSofi Sinozich, Gregory Holyk, Gary Langer

Langer Research Associates

Setting the scene

▪ Partisanship and polarization

▪ Long-term economic trends

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

201620142012201020082006200420022000199819961994199219901988198619841982

Party ID excluding independents

Party ID including independents

Party Identification and Ideology:

Annual Average Correlations, 1981-2016ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls

22.7%

-10.3%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Real median weekly earnings1979-2014

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Bachelor’s degree and higher

68% of the

U.S. population

age 25+No college degree

The promise of

government

▪ Security

▪ Liberty

▪ Opportunity for prosperity

When it’s not

delivered…

When it’s not

delivered…

▪ People get upset

▪ They reject the status quo

▪ They seek alternatives in leadership

▪ Social/values divisions gain salience

What it looks like

▪ In-group retrenchment; suspicion of “others”

▪ Acceptability of radical alternatives

▪ Bitterness and mutual incomprehension

▪ Hyper-motivated reasoning

Them

▪ The two most unpopular major-party candidates

▪ The first female major-party presidential candidate

▪ Low enthusiasm; high negative voting

▪ Extreme partisanship

▪ Long-running and late-breaking controversies alike

▪ Flawed personal attributes

▪ Little issue differentiation

▪ Sharp class-based division, populism vs status quo

34%

25%

18%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16

Donald Trump

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

John Kasich

2016 Republican Primary PreferenceAmong registered leaned Republicans

ABC News/Washington Post polls

Economic

discontent

Preference for

authority

Populist/

prefer an outsider

Pushback against

other groups

Trump support

Modeling Trump

support: Primaries

Economic

discontent

Preference for

authority

Populist/

prefer an outsider

Pushback against

other groups

Support Trump

vs. Clinton

Modeling Trump

support: General

Better/worse

under Obama

All else equal do you think it’s more important for a child:

a. (To be independent) or (to have respect for elders)?

b. (To be curious) or (to have good manners)?

c. (To be obedient) or (to be self-reliant)?

d. (To be considerate) or (to be well behaved)?

49%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16

2016 Democratic Primary PreferenceAmong registered leaned Democrats

ABC News/Washington Post polls

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

61%

50%48%

71%

77%

62%

37%

49% 50%

28%

21%

38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Women Men Whites NonwhitesNET

Blacks Hispanics

Clinton Sanders

Democratic Primary Vote by Groups2016 exit polls

28%

50%

65%

71%71%

49%

34%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18-29(16%)

30-44(23%)

45-64(40%)

65+(21%)

Clinton Sanders

Democratic Primary Vote by Age2016 exit polls

On race…

Which of these do you think is the bigger problem in this

country – (blacks and Hispanics losing out because of

preferences for whites), or (whites losing out because of

preferences for blacks and Hispanics)?

Blacks/Hispanics Whites

Clinton supporters 57% 16%

Trump supporters 16% 44%

On race…

Clinton supporters Trump supporters

Think … have too little

influence in society

Women 58% 21%

Minorities 67% 17%

Think … have too much

influence in society

Men 50% 20%

Whites 53% 8%

Minorities 9% 38%

In summary

▪ Controlling for demographics, partisanship, ideology and

presidential approval…

▪ Seeing too little influence for whites/men and too much

influence for minorities/women independently predicted

support for Trump

▪ (Similar effect size to partisanship, ideology, race – outpaced

only by Obama disapproval)

47%

39%

49% 49% 48%47% 48%45% 44%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Economy Corruption Terrorism Health care Immigration

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump

Clinton vs. Trump: IssuesAmong likely voters

ABC News/Washington Post poll

(29%) (17%) (15%) (13%) (5%)

95%97%

90% 90%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

Clinton supporters Trump supporters

Overall

Strongly

Unfavorable Views of the Opposing CandidateAmong likely voters

ABC News/Washington Post poll, October 2016

42%42%

46%

51%

45%

51%54%54%

56%

51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

11/4/1610/23/168/4/167/14/165/19/16

Negative SupportAmong likely voters

ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls

Clinton supporters: % against Trump rather than for Clinton

Trump supporters: % against Clinton rather than for Trump

68%

14%

57%

38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Has Has not Biased Not biased

Trump and WomenAmong registered voters

ABC News/Washington Post polls

Has Trump probably made unwanted Is Trump biased against

sexual advances? (Oct. 13) women and minorities? (Sept. 8)

86%

47% 46%

81%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

Leaned Dems Leaned Reps Leaned Dems Leaned Reps

Trump and Women IIAmong registered voters

Think Trump probably made Say it makes no difference

unwanted sexual advances in your vote

Among leaned Republicans who said Trump probably made

unwanted sexual advances, 72 percent also said it made no

difference in their vote.

In September 1998, 66 percent of leaned Democrats thought

Bill Clinton lied under oath. Among them, 78 percent

approved of his job performance, and 63 percent saw him

favorably.Motivated

reasoning

So, about that

horse race…

48%47%47%

46%

46%

50%46%

48%

46%43%44%

46%

45%

38%

44%

39%

3%4%3%3%3%

5%5%6%

1%2%2%2%2%2%1%3%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%2016 General Election Vote Preference

Among likely votersABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Gary JohnsonJill Stein

Final two weeks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/05/which-was-the-most-accurate-national-poll-in-the-2016-presidential-election/?utm_term=.092e231838d7

Why do we do pre-

election polls?

Why do we do pre-

election polls?

▪ To understand how and why we pick our leaders

Why do we do pre-

election polls?

▪ To understand how and why we pick our leaders

▪ To play fortune-teller

That said…

Major party margin

ABC or ABC/Post

Actual

vote Diff.

2016 4 pts 2 2

2012 3 4 1

2008 9 7 2

2004 1 3 2

2000 3 0 3

1996 12 8 4

1992 7 6 1

1988 8 7 1

1984 15 18 3

Average 2

60%59%59%57%

50%

59%54%

29%30%30%29%

40%

36%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

10/28/1610/27/1610/26/169/8/165/19/163/6/161/24/16

Who Do You Expect to Win?Among likely voters

ABC News/Washington Post polls

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

5/19/16 and previous among general population

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Won popular vote, lost electoral college: 1876, 1888, 2000

Our alternative

▪ MRP on our probability-based tracking poll

▫ Correctly predicts 4 out of 5 previous

presidential elections – including 2016State poll ABC/MRP Outcome

WI Marquette Clinton +6 Trump +1 Trump +1

NC Quinnipiac Clinton +2 Trump +6 Trump +4

PA Monmouth Clinton +4 Trump +2 Trump +1

MI RCP avg. Clinton +3.4 Clinton +1 Trump +0.2

NH UNH Clinton +11 Clinton +2 Clinton +0.3

MN Star Trib. Clinton +8 Clinton +3 Clinton +2

The road ahead

70%72%

74%77%

82%83%87%

85%88%89%

30%28%

26%23%

18%17%13%

15%12%11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

2016201220082004200019961992198819841980

% of All Voters – Whites vs. NonwhitesExit polls

Whites

Nonwhites

70%72%

74%77%

82%83%87%

85%88%89%

30%28%

26%23%

18%17%13%

15%12%11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

2016201220082004200019961992198819841980

% of All Voters – Whites vs. NonwhitesExit polls

Whites

Nonwhites

Nonwhite vote, 1980 to present: 71% to 82% D (2016, 74%)

45%

42%

31%

49%

56%55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016201220082004200019961992198819841980

D vs. R Vote, College WhitesExit polls

28%36%

67%

57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016201220082004200019961992198819841980

D vs. R Vote, Non-College WhitesExit polls

34%36%

65%

37%36%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016201220082004200019961992198819841980

Non-college whites

College-educated whites

% of All Voters - Whites by Education Exit polls

Key lesson?

Discontent demands change

15%

39%

21% 20%

14%

83%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

Empathy Change Experience Judgment Clinton Trump

Candidate Attributes2016 exit poll

Most important quality in deciding vote…

Vote among “change” voters

12%

34%

20%

30%

89%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

Empathy Change Experience Values Obama McCain

Candidate Attributes2008 exit poll

Most important quality in deciding vote…

Vote among “change” voters

Thank you!ssinozich

gholyk

glanger@ langerresearch.com