The 4th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 21-24 Feb , 2011

Yihong DUAN

WGTMR

On the Review of the Work Development and Future Plan for Tropical Meteorology Research

Contents

1. Activities

2. Projects and publications

3. Plan for next two years

Activities: Workshops and conferences

The 2nd International workshop on TC landfall Processes (IWTCLP- )ⅡThe 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology

The 7th International workshop on Tropical cyclone (IWTC-VII)

The 2nd International workshop on TC landfall Processes (IWTCLP-Ⅱ)

Co-sponsors TMR, TCP, STI/CMA, 973 Project of

MOST/China, NSF/ChinaScientific Objective

to get better understanding of tropical cyclone landfalling processes and its mechanism and to improve landfall forecasting technique.

IWTCLP- (Cont’d)Ⅱ

Meeting Size 82 Participants (researchers and forecasters)

from 17 Countries and regions where affected by TC Landfall. Venue and Time

Shanghai, China in 19-23 Oct, 2009Meeting Co-Chair

Lianshou Chen Russell Elsberry

IWTCLP-Ⅱ(Cont’d)

Meeting Topics:

Observations and Field Program Track, Structure and Intensity Changes Near the

Coast Topographic and Land Surface Effect , Especially

on Rainfall Physical Processes and Energy Transfers During

the ET Process High Impact Weather Events Forecast Techniques and Early Warning Systems

for TC Landfall

Photo for the opening ceremony of IWTCLP II in Shanghai, China

Brief summary of IWTCLP II

• 65 papers related to landfall tropical cyclone rainfall, structure and intensity change, and terrain effect on tropical cyclone rainfall and P-PARC/TCS-08 were presented over the plenary meeting,

• The “Typhoon Landfalling Forecast Demonstration Project” was proposed. It aims to improve the typhoon forecast capabilities and to give better service towards Shanghai EXPO 2010. Finally, it was endorsed by WMO/CAS-15, in Korea in 2009.

The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology

Co-sponsors

TMR, FVR, TCP, NUIST, MOST and NSF/China

Scientific Objectives

To improve the understanding and forecast techniques of QPE/QPF and hydrological prediction with an emphasis on rainfall caused by tropical cyclones and monsoons

To bring the forecasters and researchers together to review the progress of research and forecast, to discuss and exchange research achievements and operational forecast needs

The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology (Cont’d)

Meeting Size 101 Participants (researchers and forecasters) from

22 Countries and RegionsVenue and Time

Nanjing, China from 18-22 Oct, 2010Meeting Co-Chairs

Lianshou Chen (CAMS/CMA,CHINA) Barbara Brown (NCAR,USA) Yihong Duan (NMC/CMA,CHINA) Chungu Lu (NSF, USA)

The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology (Cont’d)

Meeting Topics

High impact precipitation events, related to tropical Cyclones, monsoons and severe storms;

QPE and remote sensing observations;

Hydrologic prediction and coupled hydrology-atmosphere-land models;

Verification of QPF

Data assimilation for precipitation forecasting system;

Precipitation variability and climate change;

QPF

The 7th International workshop on Tropical cyclone (IWTC-VII)

Cosponsors TMR, TCP, Meteo France

Scientific Objective to examine current knowledge, forecasting and

research trends on tropical cyclones from an integrated global perspective and to report on these aspects and

to offer recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different regions.

IWTC-VII (Cont’d)

Meeting Size

128 Participants from 42 TC affected countries and regions

Meeting venue and Time

San Denis Island, La Reunion, France; 15-20 Nov, 2010

Meeting Chairs

Chris Velden (U. of Wisconsin, USA)

Jeff Kepert (BOM, Australia)

Groupe Photo for all IWTC-VII participants

San Denis Island, La Reunion, France; 15-20 Nov, 2010

IWTC-VII (Cont’d)

MAJOR TOPICS: Structure and Intensity Change, Formation and Extra-tropical Transition, TCs in Intraseasonal to Climate Time Scales, Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning Systems, Societal

Impacts

KEYNOTE LECTURES Surface Wind Structure and the Related Pressure-

Wind Relationship Probabilistic Forecasting and Applications for User Risk

Assessment QPE/QPF and Related Inland Flood

Modeling/Applications

IWTC-VII (Cont’d)

SPECIAL FOCUS PRESENTATIONS Targeted Observations for Tropical Cyclone Track

Forecasting Ocean Field Experiments (ITOP) and New Research

Findings THORPEX/TIGGE Applications to Tropical Cyclone

Motion and Forecasting IBTrACS Activities and Updates Overview and Operational Products Expected from HFIP Application of the Dvorak Technique and Resolving

Interagency Intensity Differences

PANEL DISCUSSION Future Research Directions for Tropical Cyclones and

Climate Change

Some accomplishments from IWTC VII

59 recommendations, included 12 high priority recommendations for future WMO activities, forecaster needs, and research opportunities.

A new summary statement of Tropical cyclone and climate change was issued for WMO and NMHSs use during the workshop

IWTC VII final report will be on the WWRP website in Feb 2011.

Monsoon Data Centers

• Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets (Colorado State University-CSU, Prof. Richard Johnson)

• Data Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Asia (East Asia Monsoon Activity Center - EAMAC Dr. Song Lianchun)

• Monsoon Radar Meteorology Data Information Center (Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center/Nagoya University Japan, Prof. Hiroshi Uyeda)

Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets

• The project website is at http://johnson.atmos.colostate.edu/wwrp_monsoon/.

• the following field campaigns are included on this website: ATEX, BOMEX, GATE, WMONEX, ASTEX, TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, SALLJEX, NAME, NAMMA, and TiMREX

• The upper-air sounding datasets for TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, NAME and TiMREX have undergone numerous checks and corrections to enhance their quality.

Data Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Asia( CEEMA)

• In 2010 the Center for Extreme (Weather and Climate)

Events Monitoring in Asia (CEEMA) was established by

the East Asian Monsoon Activity Center

A website for CEEMA has been established at

http://bcc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=28&show_product=1

An initial Objective Identification Technique for Regional

Extreme Weather and Climate Events (OITREE) has

been developed and applied in China.

Frequency variations of drought events during 1957-2009 in China based on the OITREE method

the affected area with intensity distribution of the 2009/2010 Southwest China drought event based on the OITREE method

WGTMR Relevant Field Program

T-PARC/TCS 08

ITOP/TCS 10

YOTC

SWICE

PREDICT

GRIP

IFEX

HFIP

CEATIC

Western North PacificDittoDittoSouth Indian OceanNorth AtlanticNorth AtlanticNorth AtlanticNorth AtlanticEast and South China

Sea

Intense Intense observation observation areaarea

Intense Intense observation observation areaarea

China Experiment on Abnormal Typhoon In Coastal Area (CEATIC)

Wind profiler

Wind tower

GPS Sounding

Buoy station

Wind profiler

Microwave radiometer

Wind profiler with RUSS

Raindrops spectrometer

CEATIC

TC

Name Molave

Goni

Morakot

Koppu

CEATIC Target TC in 2009

Wind profile for TC Molave 2009 Wind profile for TC Molave 2009

Buoy station Observation for TC Molave 2009 Buoy station Observation for TC Molave 2009

Max. SST decrease 6℃

pressure

Effective wave heights

Wind

Effective wave high cycle

Projects and Publications

• Progress of FDP/RDP Project

• Publications

WWRP/TCP Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP)

Objective• To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting techniques for landfalling typhoons.

Action Taken • Training Workshop organized in May 2010 (Shanghai)• Real-time collection/display systems of forecast products developed• Real time verification system set-up

Planned Action • To open the project website (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn)• To provide real-time products to all TC Members • To develop a total verification system

Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa

• Training Workshop on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast, 24-28 May, Shanghai

Progresses of Progresses of TLFDP

11 lecturers from 9 institutionsTrainees: 20 forecasters from meteorological bureaus of East China Region

List of forecast products collected in real time and the way of collection

Yellow: GTS. Red: FTP. Green: FTP + CMA Intranet. Blue: CMA Intranet.Typhoon Forecast

Products ProviderTrack Intensity Wind Radii 2-D Gridded

Surface wind2-D Gridded Precipitation

3-D Gridded Model Output

Official forecast

NMC/CMA √ √ √（ Analyses）

RSMC Tokyo √ √ √（ Analyses）

HKO √ √NTC/KMA √ √JTWC √ √ √

Global model

NMC/CMA √ √ √ √ √RSMC Tokyo √ √ √ √ √ECMWF √ √ √

Regional model

NTC/KMA (unavailable yet)STI_GRAPES √ √ √ √ √GZ Regional model √ √ √ √STI_WARMS √ √ √

Ensemble prediction

Participants of TIGGE TC EPRDP

√ √

Concensus prediction

STI_CONS_OFFICIAL √STI_CONS_MODEL √

Statistical prediction

NHC_Wind Probability √STI_TCSP √STI_SIZE √STI_ANALOG √(stations)HK_QMORPH √

Courtesy of Dr Hui YU

Real time verification systemReal time verification system(Track forecast verificaiton)(Track forecast verificaiton)

Courtesy of Dr Hui YU

Real time verification systemReal time verification system(Intensity forecast verificaiton)(Intensity forecast verificaiton)

Courtesy of Dr Hui YU

WWRP/TCP NW-Pacific TC Track Ensemble Forecast Research Project

(THORPEX-Asia)Objective• To examine the utility of ensemble forecasts for the operational typhoon forecasting.

Action Taken • Website was established at JMA/MRI• ID&PW provided to Typhoon Committee Members• First improvement made to the Website

Planned Action • Training for better utilization of the products• Survey of the utility and further improvement of the products

Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa

Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa

Publications • Meeting report of the IWM-IV held in Beijing October 20-

25, 2008 in title of “BRIDGING WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN RESEARCH AND FORECAST OF GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEM” will be published by BAMS in March 2011

• “Tropical cyclone and Climate Change”, published in NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Feb 2010, Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones

• A book of 《 Global Perspectives on tropical cyclone: From Science to Mitigation 》 (From IWTC VI Edited by Johnny Chan, The Meeting Chair, published in 2010)

• A book of 《 The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast》， 2nd Edition (From IWM-IV, Edited by C.P. Chang, the Meeting Chair; will be published soon)

Preprint of Workshop and Conference

Other support to WMO NHMs

• A web version of “ A Global Tropical Cyclone Forecast Guide” is nearing completion

• A WMO website has been established for seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity

Plan for next two years (2011-2012)

• Implementation of Typhoon Landfall FDP (with TCP)• Implementation of NW Pacific Ensemble Forecast Project

(with TCP, THORPEX)• TMR WG meeting (Oct 2011, China) • Workshop on Monsoon Heavy Rainfall RDP (Oct 2011,

China)• Monsoon Training Workshop on Heavy Precipitation (Oct

2011, China)• IWM-V (2012, Malaysia) • International Workshop on Dvorak Technique (with TCP,

Apr 2011, Honolulu, US)

Thank you for your attention

CAS Strategic Thrust II • to advance scientific research and application as

well as development and implementation of technology, and specifically:

• II.3 -- Enhanced capabilities of NMHSs to produce better predictions and warnings;

• II.4 --Enhanced capabilities to use weather observations; and

• II.5 -- Enhanced capabilities to draw benefits from the global research capacity.