the analyst's dilemma: matt hatton, machina research at iot14

An Analyst’s Dilemma – what if I were an IoT entrepreneur?

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Matt Hatton, DirectorIoT14 – 15 April 2014

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Two sides to the story

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Sealed Air

Big Belly Solar

eCall

Helsinki City Transport

Gerbercutter Z7

Zipcar

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“The future is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed” William Gibson

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Big and fast growth applications

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• The biggest growth and the largest opportunitieso Tracking – pets, children etc.o Healthcareo Automotiveo Home automation

• NB – This is not all of the apps we track, just the crème de la crème

Application revenue in the UK, 2013-22Source: Machina Research 2014

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“The second half of the chess-board” Andrew McAfee

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Look beyond apps, look for trends

• The greatest revenue opportunity comes from changing business models completely - disrupting the status quo that opportunities appear

• Shift between companies, which means potential spectacular growth and super-normal margins

• M2M/IoT provides (or can provide) that stimulus • Examples:

o Zipcar bought for USD500m by Avis. Disruptive model for car ownership stimulated by connectivity. Also disruptive to Avis.

o Sealed Air and all those other capex-to-opex transformative business models.

o PTC paid USD112m for ThingWorx, recognising the need for connectivity in its offering

• Care for self is generally a poor motivator• Care for others, however, is a strong one• Numerous IoT applications provide peace-

of-mind in this respect:o Limmex watcho Child (and even pet trackers)o Building automation solutionso Indirectly Stolen Vehicle Recovery

• As a result of this, the gifting (formal or informal) market is an attractive one

• So think about the overall motivation for the application

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Changing business models Caring for (and securing) others

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Providing M2M/IoT services is like feeding a person when they are hungry

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Back in the mists of time it looked like this

If you’re poor If you’re rich

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Today it looks like this

We’re evolving from an M2M to IoT world

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Solutions were designed to monitor hundreds and thousands of remote

assets

Solutions will be required to monitor, manage and actuate millions of remote

assets and devices

Solutions were structured as vertical “stovepipes”: typically

standalone developments

Solutions will be designed with shared functionalities in mind to enable multiple

uses

Application development required developers to consider the entire

functionality stack

Developers will focus on applications, requiring access to more “off the shelf”

enabling functionality

Traditional M2M markets Emerging IoT world

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So who is what?

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So who is what?

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As it evolves, who does what, and what am I looking for?

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As it evolves, who does what, and what am I looking for?

Best and cheapest ingredients necessary to build an application

An easy, palatable, complete solution at a reasonable price

The ability to build my own

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So where would I put my money?

• Some specifics:o Healthcareo Security and home automationo Automotive

• Some wishy-washy analyst speak:o ‘Search for the disruptive’o ‘Look for the motivation’

• Frightfully gauche to name names

• There is no single right recipe – if you want a kebab, you have a kebab

• Evolution from M2M to IoT produces a greater desire to build it yourself, and that is where the scale lies

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Verticals ‘The industry’

Contact me

Matt Hatton, [email protected]

Mobile: +44 7787 577886Twitter: @MattyHatton

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the analyst's dilemma: matt hatton, machina research at iot14

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