the changing demographics of georgia - matt hauer...carl vinson institute of government the changing...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The Changing Demographics of Georgia - Matt Hauer...Carl Vinson Institute of Government The Changing Demographics of Georgia . Marketers and demographers . What percent of the state’s](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052019/6032a1c9e327df499b5b2770/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Matt Hauer,
Carl Vinson Institute
of Government
The Changing
Demographics of Georgia
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Marketers and
demographers
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What percent of the state’s
population was born in Georgia?
1. 16.2%
2. 22.8%
3. 43.1%
4. 55.8%
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______ people in Georgia speak a
foreign language in their home 1. Fewer than 500,000
2. Between 500,000 &
750,000
3. Between 750,000 &
1,000,000
4. More than 1,000,000
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Population of Georgia, 1900–2010 M
illi
on
s
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Components of Change, 1940–2009
1,020,304
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• Of the fastest growing counties in the
U.S., Georgia has…
– 4 of the top 20,
– 10 of the top 50, and
– 18 of the top 100.
• 48% growth rate between 2000–2010
– From 1.6 million in 2000 to 2.4 million in 2010
Fastest Growing Counties
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Fastest Growing Counties: 4 of 20
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Fastest Growing Counties: 10 of 50
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Fastest Growing Counties: 18 of 100
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Change in Population, 2000–2010
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Atlanta Housing Growth
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Atlanta Housing Growth
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Atlanta Housing Growth
05-09
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Georgia’s Race Distribution, 1980
72%
26%
1% 1%
White Black Hispanic Other
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Georgia’s Race Distribution, 2010
72%
26%
1% 1%
White Black Hispanic Other
56% 30%
9%
5%
1980 2010
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Georgia’s Race Distribution, 1980–2030
72%
26%
1% 1% White Black Hispanic Other
56% 30%
9% 5%
1980 2010
44%
32%
16%
8%
2030
Source: US Census Bureau, and internal population projections
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Race and Ethnic Population Change,
1980–2010
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1980 1990 2000 2010
Po
pu
lati
on
Other
Hispanic
Black
White
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Percent of State Asian Population
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Percent of State Asian Population
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Gwinnett County has the largest New Immigrant
Asian population
Georgia Is the New California
Percent Asian Percent
Change
County 1990 2000 2010 1990–2010
Henry 0.6% 1.8% 3.0% 1,753%
Gwinnett 2.9% 7.2% 10.7% 739%
Fulton 1.3% 3.0% 5.6% 519%
Cobb 1.8% 3.1% 4.5% 291%
Henry County is one of the four fastest growing counties in the
U.S.
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Percent of State Hispanic Population
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Percent of State Hispanic Population
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Percent of Hispanic Population by County
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Fast Growth = Fast Hispanic Growth
2000-2010
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Slow Growth = Larger Proportions due to Hispanic Growth
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Fastest Growing Counties: 18 of 100
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Fastest Growing Counties and Fastest Hispanic Growth in Counties
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Growth, 2000–2010
Number
Change
White 285,259
Black 579,335
Other 218,144
Hispanic 418,462
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Growth, 2000–2010
Number
Change
Percent
Change
White 285,259 5.6%
Black 579,335 24.8%
Other 218,144 74.9%
Hispanic 418,462 96.1%
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Growth, 2000–2010
Number
Change
Percent
Change
Annual Growth
Rate
White 285,259 5.6% 0.6%
Black 579,335 24.8% 2.5%
Other 218,144 74.9% 6.4%
Hispanic 418,462 96.1% 7.8%
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Growth, 2000–2010
Number
Change
Percent
Change
Annual Growth
Rate Doubling Time
White 285,259 5.6% 0.6% 116.67 years
Black 579,335 24.8% 2.5% 28 years
Other 218,144 74.9% 6.4% 10.94 years
Hispanic 418,462 96.1% 7.8% 8.97 years
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Change in White Population, 2000–2010
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Change in Black Population, 2000–2010
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Change in Hispanic Population, 2000–2010
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Where Do Babies Come From?
Demographic
Perspective
Number of Women of
Childbearing Age
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Prime School Age (5–25 Years) Population in 2000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
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Total Fertility Rate, 2000
Total Fertility Rate
Statewide 2.13
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Total Fertility Rate, 2000
Total Fertility Rate
Statewide 2.13
White 1.96
Black 2.22
Other 1.44
Hispanic 3.53
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Total Fertility Rates 2000-2009
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Black
White
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Population Projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25-2
9
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70-7
4
75
-79
80
-84
85+
2000
Source: US Census Bureau, and internal population projections
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Population Projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25-2
9
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70-7
4
75
-79
80
-84
85+
2000
2020
Source: US Census Bureau, and internal population projections
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Population Projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25-2
9
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70-7
4
75
-79
80
-84
85+
2000
2010
2020
Source: US Census Bureau, and internal population projections
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Percent Change in Population Under 18,
2000–2010
-3.0% 7.0% 17.0%
Georgia
Florida
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Alabama
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Source: Pew Hispanic Center
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• National graduation
rate is 69%.
• 64,100 students
did not graduate
high school in
2009.
Educational Attainment
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Educational Attainment Below poverty level, population aged 25 and older,
2007–2009
% below
poverty
% in
educational
group
Less than high school diploma 39% 28%
High school diploma, GED, or
alternative
34% 14%
Some college or associate’s degree 19% 8%
Bachelor’s degree 6% 4%
Graduate or professional degree 2% 3%
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Median Income by Educational Attainment
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000
Less than high school diploma
High school diploma, GED, or alternative
Some college or associate's degree
Population average
Bachelor's degree
Graduate or professional degree
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Unemployment by Education Attainment
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Percent Aged 18–24 Not Enrolled and Not Having a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2006–2008
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Educational Attainment, Population Aged 25 and Older, 2007–2009
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Less than highschool diploma
High schoolgraduate or
Higher
Some college orHigher
Bachelor'sdegree or Higher
White
Black
Hispanic
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Georgia has the 5th largest
prison population in the U.S.
Prisons
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Rising Immigrant Status with Longer Residence Attainment for 1985-1989 Immigrant Arrival Cohort
Homeownership
Citizenship
BA Completion
Profession
Better Income
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1990 2000 2008
Myers & Pitkin,
Dowell Myers, USC Price
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Source: U.S. Census, 1990, 2000; American Community Survey, 2008.
English Proficiency By Age at Arrival in the 1985-89 Immigrant Wave
Age 20+
Age 10-19
Age 0-9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2008
Dowell Myers, USC Price
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Change in Homeownership For Successive Waves of Immigrants Arriving Before 1970, 80, 90, or 2000
CA
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
70 80 90 00
NY
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
70 80 90 00
TX
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
70 80 90 00
Data Source: Dowell Myers & Cathy Liu, Urban Policy and Research, September 2005
FL
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
70 80 90 00
0.8
IL
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
70 80 90 00
Dowell Myers, USC Price
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Source: Pew Hispanic Center
Percent Spanish Users by Immigrant Generation For Latinos in the U.S., 2002
Dowell Myers, USC Price
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28.2 13.9
29.2
12.0
8.8
7.3
17.9
39.9
16.0 26.9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2030
3rd Gen
2nd Gen
20+ Yrs
10-19 Yrs
0-9 YrsPitkin &
Myers '10
CDF 9-7
Population Composition by Years in U.S. & Generation For Latinos Age 25-34 in California
Dowell Myers, USC Price
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Population Change 1990-2010
% Increase
1990-2010
Under 25 51%
25 - 44 25%
45 - 64 111%
65 - 80 53
80+ 76
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Mock Population Projection
1990
5 - 24 2.0
25 - 44 2.2
45 - 64 1.2
65 - 80 0.6
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Mock Population Projection
1990 2010
5 - 24 2.0 2.7
25 - 44 2.2 2.7
45 - 64 1.2 2.4
65 - 80 0.6 0.9
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Mock Population Projection
1990 2010 2030
5 - 24 2.0 2.7
25 - 44 2.2 2.7 2.7
45 - 64 1.2 2.4 2.7
65 - 80 0.6 0.9 2.4
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Population Projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25-2
9
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70-7
4
75
-79
80
-84
85+
1990
Source: US Census Bureau
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Population Projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25-2
9
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70-7
4
75
-79
80
-84
85+
1990
2000
Source: US Census Bureau
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Population Projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25-2
9
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70-7
4
75
-79
80
-84
85+
1990
2000
2010
Source: US Census Bureau
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Population Projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25-2
9
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70-7
4
75
-79
80
-84
85+
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: US Census Bureau, and internal population projections
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Health Outcomes
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Health Outcomes
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Mortality
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Morbidity
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Socioeconomic
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Access to Care
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Conclusions
Rapid growth amongst
youngest and oldest
populations
Population from the
“middle ages” growing
the least
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Conclusions
Georgia is no longer a black and white
state. How do you plan for
changing Georgia?
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• Demography is destiny.
• “The best way to predict your future is
to create it.”
—Abraham Lincoln
Final Thoughts