the demographic challenge - a regional introduction - demography= the science of a populations...
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The demographic challenge
- A regional introduction -
demography= the science of a populations distribution, size and composition
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
Västerbotten 2030- a population prognosis
The county´s population continues to grow, but growth will vary:
between towns and municipalities
between women and men
between immigrants and Swedish-born
between younger and older
Change in population 2008-2030Municipality/County men women total
Nordmaling -259 -373 -632
Bjurholm -153 -130 -283
Vindeln -264 -272 -536
Robertsfors -121 -189 -311
Norsjö -181 -214 -395
Malå -231 -234 -466
Storuman -428 -461 -889
Sorsele -258 -256 -514
Dorotea -274 -255 -529
Vännäs -84 -95 -179
Vilhelmina -439 -514 -952
Åsele -342 -337 -679
Umeå 7 396 6 549 13 945
Lycksele -430 -567 -997
Skellefteå 465 -725 -259
Västerbotten 4 396 1 928 6 324
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
Change in population 2008-2030
Municipality/County 0-19 year 20-64 year 65+ year TotalNordmaling -362 -607 337 -632 Bjurholm -72 -147 -64 -283 Vindeln -142 -609 215 -536 Robertsfors -102 -670 461 -311 Norsjö -73 -461 138 -395 Malå -102 -466 102 -466 Storuman -256 -682 49 -889 Sorsele -155 -343 -17 -514 Dorotea -110 -442 22 -529 Vännäs -171 -446 438 -179 Vilhelmina -281 -814 142 -952 Åsele -213 -466 -0 -679 Umeå 1 879 2 746 9 320 13 945 Lycksele -400 -1 123 526 -997 Skellefteå -832 -3 309 3 881 -259 Västerbotten -1 392 -7 836 15 552 6 324
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
Population in Västerbotten distributed in one-year classes
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
Population in Västerbotten distributed in one-year classes
0-2 year -527
3-12 year 2 964
13-35 year -7 528
36-41 year 1 418
42-63 year -5 642
64+ year 15 638
Total 6 324
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
Population in Västerbotten distributed in one-year classes
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
Population development in Västerbotten 1970-2030, divided by age group and year
Number of people in working age per pensioner
1970 2030
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
Population in Västerbotten 1970, 2008 and 2030
135 ´151´
143´
98´107 ´
121 ´
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
1970 2008 2030
20-64 år
0-19 år, 65+ år
1970/233 133/58,1 procent
2008/257 812/58,5 procent
2030/264 136/54,1 procent
Dependency ratio decreasesDependency ratio increases
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
20-64 year
0-19 year, 65 + year
Dependency ratio
=
the ratio between the number of
children, adolescents and older relative to
the population of working age
The proportion of young and old in relation to people in economically active ages(20-64 year)
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
Dependency ratio in the county of Västerbotten
The dependency ratio varies between the municipalities
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
Dependency ratio (the ratio between the number of children, adolescents and older relative to the population of working age)
Year 1970Year 2008Year 2030
Per 100 persons
Who will take over the companies when the baby-
boomer generation (born in the forties) has retired?
More than one in three workers is older than 55 years. The current report shows that thousands of businesses are at risk when nearly half of all small business owners say that a generation or
ownership issue within ten years
Who is going to do the job when the need for care and
welfare increase dramatically?
Current population prognosis of the county shows thas the number of people in age 80 or older will dubble until the year of 2030. At the same time the number o people in working age
will decrease.
When the economy turns, will labour shortages hinder the
company’sgrowth opportunities?
In the small business survey, which is published twice a year, companies respond on the issue of
the single biggest growth obstacle - demand, employment law, finance, would not grow, etc..
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009
To meet the demographic challenge requires a combination of measures!
Higher labor productivity Increased proportion of the population fo
working age in work Longer working lives More people of working age Attractive workplaces, habitats and creative
individuals
Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009