The dynamics of Britain’s ethnic group populations: the roles of natural change

and net migration in producing the ethnic mosaic

Nissa Finney and Ludi SimpsonBSPS Annual Conference

St. Andrews, 11-13th September 2007www.ccsr.ac.uk

www.ccsr.ac.uk/research/mrpd

Political and academic context

• Social and political concern• Assumptions about ‘white flight’ and non-white

‘self-segregation’• Renewed academic interest in ethnic

geographies and their measurement (e.g. Peach 1996, Simpson 2005, 2007, Voas and Williamson 2000, Poulsen et al 2005)

• Some work on migration and dispersal (e.g. Ellis & Goodwin-White 2006, Frey 2006, Musterd & de Vos 2007, Stillwell 2005, Simpson 2007)

Migration, Race and Population Dynamics

• Net migration and natural change• District and Ward scales• 8 ethnic groups, age and sex• Change over time (1991-2001)

Population change = (births – deaths) + (arrivals – departures)

National population dynamicsGrowth of Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other populations in GB is more through natural growth

than immigration, 1991-2001

net migration

natural change

Source: MRPD estimates

Age structure of net migration, GB, 91-01

100806040200

Age in 2001 (0,1,2...89,90+)

250.00

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00

-50.00

Su

m N

etM

igra

tio

np

c

OtherChineseBangladeshiPakistaniIndianAfricanCaribbeanWhite

Ethnic group - 8 categories

Net migration as % of 1991 pop

Chinese and African immigration

Caribbean emigration

Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi emigration

Net migration rate for types of district for white and non-white groups, 2000-2001, GB

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

District type

Net

mig

rait

on

rat

e

White

Non-white

Counterurbanisation

Source: Census 2001 SMS, for districts in GB

Dispersal

Balance of migration,% of population

Group concentrations Group White

Indian -0.40 -1.23

Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other South Asian -0.34 -0.79

Chinese -0.21 -1.23

Black -1.65 0.13

Source: Census 2001, for districts in GB

White & Indian net migration, 91-01

Net migration V natural change, White and Bangladeshi

Migration and natural change: demographic hypotheses

Growth in geographical clusters• Pioneer and chain immigration: settlement areas• Few deaths compared to births: natural growth becomes

greater than immigrationDispersal• Lack of housing creates pressure to disperse from

settlement areas• Migration gives spatial form to social stratification,

economically more successful move further to achieve better housing

• Internal migration maintains clusters of ethnically similar population

Correlations between net migration and natural change

White -0.10

Caribbean -0.45

Indian -0.02

African 0.89

Pakistani 0.83

Bangladeshi 0.88

Chinese 0.68

Other 0.57

Districts of GB, 1991-2001

Local examples

Oldham

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

White

Caribbe

an

Africa

n

India

n

Pakist

ani

Bangla

desh

i

Chinese

Other

Bradford

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

White

Carib

bean

Africa

n

India

n

Pakista

ni

Banglad

eshi

Chines

eOth

er

• Natural growth and dispersal for Indian, Bangladeshi, Chinese

• Population loss due to migration for White and Caribbean

• Growth due to natural change and migration for Pakistani, African and Other

Net Migration Natural Change

…and in Oldham for Bangladeshi

Oldham

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

White

Caribbe

an

Africa

n

India

n

Pakist

ani

Bangla

desh

i

Chinese

Other …and in Oldham for

Bangladeshi

Oldham

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

White

Caribbe

an

Africa

n

India

n

Pakist

ani

Bangla

desh

i

Chinese

Other …and in Oldham for

Bangladeshi

• Natural growth and dispersal for all non-White groups except Pakistani

Swansea

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

White

Caribbe

an

Africa

n

India

n

Pakist

ani

Bangla

desh

i

Chinese

Other

Fife

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Whi

te

Carib

bean

Africa

n

India

n

Pakist

ani

Bangl

ades

hi

Chines

eOth

er

Net Migration Natural Change

• Population growth due to migration and natural change for all non-White groups except Bangladeshi

Summary

• Components of changes estimate are a rich source• Nationally, natural growth has a greater impact than

migration for Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other groups

• There is great variation not only between groups but between areas

• Patterns can be explained by the demographic maturity of migrant groups and their geographical distribution

• Local examples illustrate complexities of processes of population change but provide initial evidence for processes of natural growth and dispersal from urban and settlement areas, and the creation of new clusters in more remote areas

Conclusions

Geographies of ethnicity in Britain, including clustering of non-white groups,

can be explained through a combination of natural change and dispersal

We must not jump to conclusions about divisive motivations for migration