the economic recovery index october results 2009
DESCRIPTION
A monthly survey of Irish consumer sentiment in relation to the state of the economy and the timing of recovery.TRANSCRIPT
The Economic Recovery IndexThe Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research BriefingAn Amárach Research Briefing
October Index ResultsOctober Index Results
© Amárach Research 2009
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Timing Recovery
All recessions end in recovery – so will this one
The biggest forecasting challenge is
timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started?
Amárach Research has developed the
Business Cycle Peaks & TroughsBusiness Cycle Peaks & Troughs
Amárach Research has developed the Economic Recovery Index to help us
track the economic cycle more closely
This report summarises the ERI results
for April to October 2009
The July fieldwork was conducted on
18th-23rd October inclusive
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A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults online and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
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A Matter of Measurement
AprilApril 00%% OctoberOctober 00%%
October has seen the strongest ERI score since April: as many people think the worst is over as think it’s still getting worse
April 77%April 77% OctoberOctober 4747%%
AprilApril 1414%% October 30October 30%%
April 8%April 8% October October 2323%%
April April 11%% OctoberOctober 11%%
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Economic Recovery IndexEconomic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the survey we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak)
The ERI has improved strongly through August and October, recovering all of the ground lost in June-July
0 100
April
20092009 ERI ScoreERI Score
AprilApril 8.3
MayMay 16.3
JuneJune 17.8
JulyJuly 15.0
AugustAugust 17.0
SeptemberSeptember 18.4
OctoberOctober 19.6AmárachAmárach ResearchResearch Economic Recovery IndexEconomic Recovery Index
October
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Other Sentiment Indicators from ERI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: September and October 2009
46%
48%
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession
in 12 months time
62%
55%
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic
situation
60%56%
The recession is affecting other people
more than it is affecting me
September October September October
48%46%
September October
I feel financially comfortable enough to
make it through the recession
18%
16%
September October
I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago
September October
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Mood of the Nation
Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?
September and October 2009
61%
52%47%
39%
61%
54%
40%
34%
18%22%
19%
34%
16%19%
13%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Sadness Physical Pain
Anger
September October
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Insights & Implications
October has seen a continuing improvement in the general public’s perceptions of the current status of the recession-recovery cycle. This bodes well for consumer markets in particular, and the wider economy in general, if it translates into increased spending.
But that is a big ‘IF’. Other indicators in our ERI survey point to little real change in ERI survey point to little real change in consumer sentiment in relation to willingness to spend or confidence about their financial ability to get through the recession.
So the improvement in the ERI in October may well herald a better macro-economic outlook in the months ahead, but it is too early to tell if consumers are about to loosen their purses and wallets in the run up to Christmas and into 2010.
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About Amárach
Amárach Research is a full service market research agency
The questions for the Economic Recovery Index are run on our monthly
online omnibus survey of 1,000 adults
Keep up with Amárach’s thinking by
subscribing to our free fortnightly ezine: Consumer Foresight
More information at:www.amarach.com
Check out our blog here:www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com
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Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - ChairmanBernadette Coyne – Managing Director
Amárach Research11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200E. [email protected]
[email protected]. www.amarach.com
B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com
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