the election in numbers - roger mortimore, mori

8/9/2019 The Election in Numbers - Roger Mortimore, MORI

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That election in figures

Dr Roger Mortimore, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI

Presentation to The Coventry Conversation, 12 May 2010


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The result


3/44

2010 UK general election: result

050

100150200250300

Source: BBC. One seat (Thirsk & Malton) still to vote

Seatsotes

326

306258

57 28

36%

29%

12%

23%

Conservative

Lib

Dem

Other

Labour


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2010 GB general election: result

Source: BBC. One seat (Thirsk & Malton) still to vote

2010

307

37%

30%

10%

24%

Conservative

Lib

Dem

Other

Labour

33%

36%

8%

23%

Conservative

Lib

Dem

Other

Labour

2005

+4

-6

+1

Lab-to-Con swing = 5.5%


5/44

The pre-campaign


6/44

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jul-07

S

ep-07

N

ov-07

Jan-08

M

ar-08

M

ay-08

Jul-08

S

ep-08

N

ov-08

Jan-09

M

ar-09

M

ay-09

Jul-09

S

ep-09

N

ov-09

Jan-10

M

ar-10

Voting Intentions - Pre election(all certain to vote)

Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500

British adults thereafter, until February 2010 c800 thereafter

30%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monito

21%

35%

Average Con

lead in 2009

15%

Jan-

Mar

6%


7/44

26%

23%

14%

12%

11%

8%

7%

7%

6%

5%

5%

3%

3%

3%

3%

32%

Taxation

Asylum/immigration

Afghanistan

Pensions

Education

Protecting natural env./climate change

Managing the economy

Care for older & disabled people

Healthcare

Benefits

Crime/ anti-soc. behaviour

Looking ahead of the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues doyou think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to votefor?

The economy is the most important election issue

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Unemployment

All at 3% or above

DefenceBase: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010

Public transport/roads

Iraq

Housing


8/44

28%

29%

24%

29%

17%

26%

9%

10%

9%

12%

46%

33%

34%

36%

33%

28%

Asylum/immigration

Education

Healthcare

Managing the economy

Which party has the best policies on ?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitoBase: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th to 22nd March 2010

+11

+1

-9

+3

Conservative lead oveLabour

Labour Conservatives Lib Dems Other/None/Dont know

14

23

26

32

% who think issue is veryimportant in helping themdecide how to vote


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What the voters want on economy

Base: 1,253 British adults aged 18+, 18-20 April 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI

Q. If a Labour/Conservative government is elected after the next General Election do you think it will or will not?

Q. And do you think the next Government, regardless of which party it is, should or should not?

increase national insurance

... cut spending on frontlinepublic services

increase income tax

... increase VAT

14

41

67

36

2170

19

29

60

28

2974

78

47

29

0

56

7027

0

72

61

34

0

62

6122

% Will/should% Will not/should not

S ti f ti ith P t l d


10/44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

J

ul-07

S

ep-07

N

ov-07

J

an-08

M

ar-08

M

ay-08

J

ul-08

S

ep-08

N

ov-08

J

an-09

M

ar-09

M

ay-09

J

ul-09

S

ep-09

N

ov-09

J

an-10

M

ar-10

Satisfaction with Party leadersJuly-07 April-10


How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is runningthe country / doing his job as ?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month (1,253 April 2010)

%

satisfied

Brown

CameronClegg

Campbell

Clegg elected(Jan 08)


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38%

29%

12%

12%

8%

41%

24%

16%

14%

5% David Cameron

None

Gordon Brown

Dont know

Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister,Gordon Brown or David Cameron or Nick Clegg?

Capable Prime Minister

Nick Clegg


David Cameron

None

Gordon Brown

Dont know

Nick Clegg

September 2009 February 2010

Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010


12/44

34%

30%

36%

21%

23%

24%

32%

George

Osborne

VinceCable Alistair

Darling

Neither/DK

But will Osborne or Cable do better?


Base: 735 from 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Base: 768 from 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010

George

Osborne

Alistair

Darling

None/DK

Who do you think would make the most

capable Chancellor, Labours Alistair Darling,

the Conservatives George Osborne or the

Liberal Democrats Vince Cable?

Who do you think would make the most

capable Chancellor, Labours Alistair Darling

or the Conservatives George Osborne?


13/44

15

42

59

66

68

45

35

30

% Dissatisfied % Satisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Netsatisfaction

+53

-36

+3

Gordon Brown -24


Net changefrom Mar2010

+33

+7

+3

+2


Base: 1,253 British adults 18+, 18th-19th April 2010

Growing doubts about Conservatives readiness to


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Growing doubts about Conservatives readiness togovern


To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservativesare ready to form the next Government?

49%50%

41%

54%58%

45%

41%

35%36%30%29%

40%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Agree

Disagree

July 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Apr 09 Sep 09 Mar 10Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month; (March 2010: 1,503 adults)

Conservatives seen as less ready than Blairs


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49%

55%

41%

33%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Conservatives seen as less ready than BlairsLabour in 1997


To what extent do you agree or disagree that theConservatives/Labour are ready to form the next Government?

Agree Disagree

April 1997 March 2010Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010

Base: 1,114 British adults, 8 April 1997


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What changed during the campaign?

Th f th i


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30 30

27 27 2728

3

38 38

3334

3536

3

16

21

3029

2827

2

0

10

20

30

40

The course of the campaign

Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of datafrom pollingreport.com

Average of all published voting intention polls in each period

%

Election

called

First

debate

Second

debate

Third

debate

Final

polls

Election

day


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The Political Triangle

I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the party. Some people are attractedmainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify withthe party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of thesewas to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how

many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?

3.8

3.8

2.2

LeadersParty

Policies Mean scores shown

Base: All giving a voting intention 1,210 collected from 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010



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I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the party. Some people are attractedmainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify withthe party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of thesewas to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how

many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?

4.4

4.7

4.1 4.2

4.6

3.5 3.43.2

3.1

2.1 2

2.3 2.4 2.4

2.1

4

3.3

3.93.8

2.2

1

2

3

4

5

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010


The Political Triangle

Leaders

Parties

Policies

Mean scores shown

Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (1,210 February 2010)

C


20/44

33%

29%

19%

19%8%

38%

12%

12%

29%

David Cameron

None

Gordon Brown

Dont know

Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister,Gordon Brown or David Cameron or Nick Clegg?

Capable Prime Minister

Nick Clegg


David Cameron

Gordon Brown

Dont know

Nick Clegg

February 2010 5 May 2010

Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010 Base: 1,216 British adults 18+, 5th May 2010

Source: Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard

Satisfaction with Party leaders


21/44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ju

l-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Ja

n-08

M

ar-08

M

ay-08

Ju

l-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Ja

n-09

M

ar-09

M

ay-09

Ju

l-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Ja

n-10

M

ar-10

Satisfaction with Party leadersJuly-07 April-10

45%

35%



Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month (1,253 April 2010)

%

satisfied

Brown

CameronClegg

Campbell

Clegg elected(Jan 08) 68%

I t f d b t i d idi h t t f


22/44

As you may know, for the first time in a general election campaign the leaders of thethree main parties will debate key issues live on television in the run-up to theelection. How important do you think the performance of the leaders in the debates

will be in helping you to decide who to vote for?

Importance of debates in deciding who to vote for

29%

31%

20%

19%

Very important

Not very important

Fairly important

Not at all important

39%

60%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitoBase: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010

B fit f d b t


23/44

53%

12%

12%

3%

20%

David Cameron

None

Gordon Brown

Dont know

And which leader do you expect to gain most public support as aresult of these debates?

Benefit from debates

Nick Clegg


Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010

First debate: Seen it?


24/44

22%

19%

5%

30%

25%

*%

First debate: Seen it?

Yes all of it on the night

Yes some of it on the night

Didnt watch the debate but sawnews coverage of it afterwards on

television

Didnt watch the debate but sawnews coverage of it afterwards in

newspapers

No didnt watch it

Dont know

As you probably know, for the first time in a general election campaign the leadersof the three main parties debated key issues live on television a few days ago. Didyou watch the debate, either live or reported on the news afterwards, or not?

70% saw

some

coverage

of the

debate

Base: 1,253 British adults 18+, 18-20 April 2010

Source: Ipsos MORI

Second debate: Seen it?


25/44

17%

22%

2%

37%

*%

18%

4%

Second debate: Seen it?

Yes all of it on the night

Yes some of it on the night

Didnt watch the debate but saw

news coverage of it afterwards ontelevisionDidnt watch the debate but saw

news coverage of it afterwards innewspapers

No didnt watch it

Dont know

As you probably know, for the second of the televised leader debates took place yesterday inwhich the leaders of the three main parties debated key issues live on television.

Did you watch the second debate, either live or reported on the news afterwards, or not?

59% have

seen

some

coverage

of the

debate

Watched the first debate but not the

second

Base: 1,245 British adults 18+, 23rd April 2010

Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World

Impact of first debate on voting intention


26/44

25%

13%

10%

46%

4%

1%

1% The debate has encouraged meto vote for the party I alreadysupport

Dont know

The debate has encouragedme to switch my vote from oneparty to another

The debate made me change frombeing undecided to choosing one of theparties to vote for

Which of these statements do you most agree with?

None of these

The debate has put meoff voting for any party

The debate has had no

impact on how I intendto vote

Base: All who watched the first debate, 899 British adults 18+, 18th-19th April 2010


Impact of first debate on voting intention

23%

Impact of second debate on voting intention


27/44

32%

11%

45%

3%

6%1%

1%

Impact of second debate on voting intention

The debate has encouraged meto vote for the party I alreadysupport

Dont know

The debate has encouragedme to switch my vote from one

party to anotherThe debate made me change frombeing undecided to choosing one of theparties to vote for

Which of these statements do you most agree with?

None of these

The debate has put meoff voting for any party

The debate has had no

impact on how I intendto vote


Base: All who watched the second debate, 731 British adults 18+, 23rd April 2010

17%

Impact of the first debate


28/44

38%

30%

11%

21%


Voting intentions average of all published polls

Source: Published polls collected by Ipsos MORI

33%

27%

10%

30%

Con

LD

Lab

Other

Before the first debate:6-15 April

Con

LD

Lab

Other

After the first debate:15-22 April



29/44

35%

30%

14%

21%



32%

28%

8%

32%

Con

LD

Lab

Other

Before the campaign:19-22 March

Con

LD

Lab

Other

After the first debate:18-20 April

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?



30/44



How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?Absolutely certain to vote, projected into millions of votes

7.7

6.5

4.6

3.0

8.3

7.2

8.3

1.9

Con

Lab

LibDem

Others

March

March

March

March

April

April

April

April

Millions

Definitely decided or might change mind?


31/44

81%

18%

1%

54%

45%

*%

62%

35%

3%

Mid-campaign measures

Definitelydecided

Dontknow

Maychangemind

Have you definitely decided to vote for xxx party or is there achance you may change your mind before you vote?

Definitelydecided

Definitelydecided

Maychange

mind

Maychange

mind

25-27 March 1992 21-25 April 2005 23 April 2010

Base: All British adults 18+ naming one of the three main parties Source: Ipsos MORI

Dontknow

Average of polls: Swing Lab to Con


32/44

5.0%5.4%5.3%

4.8%

4.3%

5.1%5.5%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Pre-Election

To firstdebate

To seconddebate

To thirddebate

Post thirddebate

Final polls Result

Average of polls: Swing Lab to Con

Source: Ipsos MORI


33/44

Hung Parliament

Most expected a hung Parliament


34/44

p g


Thinking ahead to the next general election, which of the following

outcomes do you think is most likely?

24%

37%

22%

10%

1%

1%

A Conservative majority government

A Labour majority government

A hung parliament with the

Conservatives as the biggest party

A hung parliament with Labour as

the biggest party

A Lib Dem majority governmentA hung parliament with the Lib Dems as

the biggest party

Hung parliament: 59%

Con largest party : 61%

Lab largest party: 32%

Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010

An overall majority good or bad for Britain?


35/44

20%

65%

15%

30%

55%

15%

j y g

Dont know

Thinking about the outcome of the election on May 6th, do you think it will be a good thing or abad thing for the country if no party achieves an overall majority?

Base: 1,216 British adults 18+, 5 May 2010


Good

Bad

Dont knowGood

Bad

May 2010April 1979

Base: 1,064 British adults 18+, 16-17 Apr 1979

What next?


36/44

27

29

4

33

4

4

22

40

0

35

0

2

All LibDem s

at e t

If no party achieves an overall majority, which of these would you prefer?

The Conservatives and the

Liberal Democrats working together

All three main parties

working together

Labour and the Liberal

Democrats working together

None of these/Other

Dont know

The Conservatives andLabour working together


37/44

The polls

Exit poll


38/44

p

050

100

150200250300

*Prediction as broadcast at 10 p.m. Result assumes Thirsk & Malton (still to vote) is Conservative

Ipsos MORI/Gfk NOPexit poll for BBC/ITV/Sky*Electionresult

326307

258

57

307255

59

Exit Poll


39/44

We polled 17,607 voters at 130 polling stations across Great

Britain

Re-using as many polling stations as possible from 2005

Spread of constituency types and regions

Allowance made for postal voting

Very high response rate

Voting Intention (final poll) vs. results


40/44

Source: Ipsos MORI

36%

28%

10%

27%

Conservatives

Lib Dem

Labour

Other

Conservative lead = +8

Sources: pollingreport.com; BBC; British Polling Council

FINALPoll of polls May 5th

37%

30%

10%

24%

Conservatives

Lib Dem

Other


RESULT May 6th

Labour

Voting Intention (final poll) vs. results


41/44

Source: Ipsos MORI

36%

29%

8%

27%

Conservatives

Lib Dem

Labour

Other


Base: 930 British adults 18+, certain to vote or already voted by post, interviewed by telephone on 5th May 2010

Ipsos MORIFINAL POLL May 5th

37%

30%

10%

24%

Conservatives

Lib Dem

Other


RESULT May 6th

Labour

LibDem vote was softer (1)


42/44

59%

33%

5%2%

1%

43%

45%

7%4%

2%

53%36%

8%2%1%

Base: British electors naming one of the three main parties, by telephone, 5th May 2010

Conservatives: 313; Labour: 289; Liberal Democrats: 244

Conservative voters Labour voters Lib Dem voters

Source: Ipsos MORI

Q. How important is it to you personally who wins the next General Election?

Very important Fairly important Not very important Not at all important No opinion

More Conservatives are definitely decided


43/44

80%

20%

65%

34%

1%

66%

32%

2%

Definitelydecided

Dont know

Maychange

mind

Q. Have you definitely decided to vote for the or is there a chance youmay change your mind before you vote?

Definitelydecided

Definitelydecided

Maychange

mind

Maychange

mind

Conservative voters Labour voters Lib Dem voters

Source: Ipsos MORI

Base: British electors naming one of the three main parties, excluding those who have voted by post,

interviewed by telephone, 5th May 2010 (Conservatives: 313; Labour: 289; Liberal Democrats: 244)

Dont know


44/44

Thank you. Questions?

[email protected]

the election in numbers - roger mortimore, mori

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