the end of the census? population patterns seminar series supported by partnership

The End of the Census?

Population Patterns Seminar Series supported by Partnership

Thursday 28th November 2013

This event is kindly supported by Partnership

#populationpatterns

Welcome

Norma CohenDemographic Correspondent

Financial Times


#populationpatterns

Andy TeagueHead of Statistical Development for Beyond 2011

ONS


#populationpatterns

International Longevity Centre – UK, Population Patterns Seminar Series, 28 November 2013

The Census and future provision of population statistics in England and Wales

– Public consultation

Andy Teague

Beyond 2011

The Beyond 2011 Programme

• Census – every 10 years for over 200 years• Review a normal part of the census cycle but

the need greater than everRapidly changing society

Evolving user requirementsTechnological advances

Improved data sources

DRIVERS : Cost, efficiency, opportunity, burden

CRITERIA : Cost V social and economic benefit of outputs, privacy, public acceptability, risk etc

• Government proposes to Parliament (with NS advice) • Beyond 2011 findings will be published in 2014

Government Spending 2010

Cost of the 2011 Census – £50m / year

Source: guardian.co.uk

.

Beyond 2011 : Two potential approaches

A census once a decade -like that conducted in 2011,

but primarily online

A census based on administrative data

and large annual surveys

Beyond 2011 : An online census – what it is



A compulsory questionnaire for every household (and communal)Majority of responses online (and mix of ways to complete)1% survey to adjust for those who don’t respondAdministrative data to check the qualityPopulation estimates produced annually using births, deaths, etcQuestions and topics similar to 2011 Census – but will consult later

Beyond 2011 : Administrative data and surveys – what it is



Re-use of admin sources to produce annual population estimatesAnonymous data from eg NHS, DWP, HMRC, DfE, HESAAnnual compulsory 1% survey to adjust for error in the admin sourcesAnnual compulsory 4% survey to collect characteristics informationMajority of responses online (and mix of ways to complete)Questions and topics similar to 2011 Census – but will consult later

NHS Patient RegisterDWP/HMRC Customer Information SystemElectoral roll (> 17 yrs)School Census (5-15 yrs)Higher Education Statistics Agency data (Students)Birth and Death registrations

NO PERSONAL DATA HELD – ALL NAMES & ADDRESSES AND DATES OF BIRTH ANONYMISED

Beyond 2011 : An online census – what you get



Huge richness of dataData for very small areas and very small populationsDetailed cross tabulations – nearly 6 billion cellsContinuity – traditionA benchmark – a definitive snapshot of the nation - certainty

Data that is (or might be) out of date most of the timeAn illusion of knowledge (some of the time) but the best we’ve got

Administrative data and survey approach

population estimates



Beyond 2011 : The admin data approach – what you get

Administrative data and survey option

NHS patientregister

DWP/HMRC Customer information

system1%

coveragesurvey

HESA data(students) population

estimates

SPD 5

Admin data method lower than 2011 Census

Admin data method higher than 2011 Census

Population Pyramids using admin data

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990+

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

population (millions)

Administrative data method population pyramid with Census comparison: England & Wales

Admininstrativedata methodCensus

Males FemalesAdmininstrativedata methodCensus

SPD 5

Percentage difference between administrative data approach and Census estimates – Output Area level

grea

ter

than

-15

% lo

wer

betw

een

-15%

and

-14

%

betw

een

-14%

and

-13

%

betw

een

-13%

and

-12

%

betw

een

-12%

and

-11

%

betw

een

-11%

and

-10

%

betw

een

-10%

and

-9%

betw

een

-9%

and

-8%

betw

een

-8%

and

-7%

betw

een

-7%

and

-6%

betw

een

-6%

and

-5%

betw

een

-5%

and

-4%

betw

een

-4%

and

-3%

betw

een

-3%

and

-2%

betw

een

-2%

and

-1%

with

in 1

%

betw

een

1% a

nd 2

%

betw

een

2% a

nd 3

%

betw

een

3% a

nd 4

%

betw

een

4% a

nd 5

%

betw

een

5% a

nd 6

%

betw

een

6% a

nd 7

%

betw

een

7% a

nd 8

%

betw

een

8% a

nd 9

%

betw

een

9% a

nd 1

0%

betw

een

10%

and

11%

betw

een

11%

and

12%

betw

een

12%

and

13%

betw

een

13%

and

14%

betw

een

14%

and

15%

grea

ter

than

15%

hig

her

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

%

0%

88% of OAs within +/-10%

Ave 30 people

Note that central bar covers double the range of the other bars

• Annual population estimates – for all geographic levels – down to output areas

• Annual estimates age & sex – for all levels down to LSOA• OA level currently unproven but all the signs are

that this will be possible

• Research is ongoing


What you get – population estimates

Administrative data and survey option

NHS patientregister

DWP/HMRC Customer information

system1%

coveragesurvey

HESA data(students) population

estimates

4%characteristics

survey

characteristics

How survey works

• Most characteristics not currently covered by an administrative source, although lots of unproven potential

• Need compulsory 4% survey • Reliable statistics could be produced for

characteristics representing:800 or more people using 1 year’s data (4%)

230 or more people using 3 years’ data (12%)

130 or more people using 5 years’ data (20%)

• Statistics for smaller populations would be produced but lower accuracy (CI > 40%)

0.9% nationally

4.4% nationally

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Estimate

Lower Bound

Upper Bound

Non-overlapping - significant change

Es

tim

ate

d a

nn

ua

l p

op

ula

tio

n

Year

HARINGEYCountry of Birth: Other EU

Assuming constant rate of change - by 2003 a significant change in the ‘Other EU Country of Birth Category would be identified


spotting change over time

?

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Estimate

Lower Bound

Upper Bound

Non-overlapping - significant change

Es

tim

ate

d a

nn

ua

l h

ou

se

ho

ld

po

pu

lati

on

Year

Assuming constant rate of change - by 2006 a significant change in the ‘Private rented from landlord or letting agency’ Tenure Category would be identified


spotting change over time

WELLINGBOROUGH Tenure: Private rented from landlord or letting agency

?

Box F: Statistics possible using survey data

Area type Average number of residents

1 year’s data(800 threshold)

3 years’ data(230 threshold)

5 years’ data(130 threshold)

LA 160,000 Detailed cross-tabulations(c 200 cells)

Detailed cross-tabulations(c 500 cells)

Very detailed cross-tabulations(c 1000 cells)

MSOA 7,800 Some single variable statistics(c 10 cells)

Very simple cross-tabulations(c 30 cells)

Simple cross-tabulations(c 50 cells)

LSOA 1,600 Not available Some single variable statistics(c 5 cells)

Some single variable statistics(c 10 cells)

OA 300 Not available Not available Not available


What you get - characteristics

Admin data for characteristics - the potential ??

Key advantage – broad coverage sources allow statistics at lowest geographies ? – every year ?

Household composition – various Income – HMRC / DWPEconomic status – HMRC / DWPHealth status (index?) – HSCIC / NHS WalesQualifications – Census / DfE / BISIndustry of employer – HMRC?Carers – HMRC / DWP (limited)Ethnicity – NHS (quality?)

– HMRC / DWP (limited)

(Full list in paper M12)

Comparison of Percentage of Households of Each Size for selected LAs

Percentage of Households

Hou

seho

ld S

ize

1

2

3

4

5+

10 20 30 40

Birmingham

10 20 30 40

Boston

10 20 30 40

Bournemouth

10 20 30 40

Brent

10 20 30 40

Cambridge

10 20 30 40

Camden

10 20 30 40

Cardiff

10 20 30 40

Ceredigion

10 20 30 40

Cheshire East

10 20 30 40

Chesterfield

10 20 30 40

Coventry

10 20 30 40

1

2

3

4

5+

East Devon

1

2

3

4

5+

10 20 30 40

Eastbourne

10 20 30 40

Forest Heath

10 20 30 40

Herefordshire, County of

10 20 30 40

Hillingdon

10 20 30 40

Kensington and Chelsea

10 20 30 40

Kingston upon Thames

10 20 30 40

Lambeth

10 20 30 40

Leicester

10 20 30 40

Manchester

10 20 30 40

Newcastle upon Tyne

10 20 30 40

Newham

10 20 30 40

1

2

3

4

5+

Northumberland

1

2

3

4

5+

10 20 30 40

Oxford

10 20 30 40

Powys

10 20 30 40

Reading

10 20 30 40

Richmondshire

10 20 30 40

Rotherham

10 20 30 40

Stratford-on-Avon

10 20 30 40

Tonbridge and Malling

10 20 30 40

Waltham Forest

10 20 30 40

Warwick

10 20 30 40

Waveney

10 20 30 40

Westminster

10 20 30 40

1

2

3

4

5+

Wirral

AdministrativeData Method

Census

The two approaches Advantages and disadvantages

Beyond 2011 : Advantages and disadvantages



STRENGTHS• A rich set of statistics for a range of

geographies, a wide range of topics, small populations, detailed cross tabulations

• Proven ability to deliver - proven and tested• High degree of continuity• A single, high quality snapshot of the nation

RISKS• Increasingly difficult to

get high response• Other methods of

completion required for some households

• Considered an invasion of privacy by some

OPPORTUNITIES• Online completion will be cheaper and

more efficient

WEAKNESSES• Only every 10 years (except for LA

population estimates) – reduces usefulness• Costs more than the admin data option -

£625m per decade - £1.10 per person per year

• Build-up and run-down challenging• A burden on all households

Beyond 2011 : Advantages and disadvantages



STRENGTHS• Continually updated – statistics on an

annual basis• Changes and trends identified more quickly• Less expensive - £460m a decade – 80p

per person per year• Reduced burden on households

RISKS• New and untested methods –

other countries have taken decades

• Some discontinuities• Requires access to admin data• Survey response will be

challenging here too• Requires public acceptance of

use of admin data

OPPORTUNITIES• Use of admin data can be extended over

time• Potential to be more flexible in questions• New opportunities for historic research (in 2121)

WEAKNESSES• Will never produce the detail provided by

the census• Data combined for several years – makes

date to which it refers more complex• Loss of a single historical record (options to

store more – but not yet developed)• Requires new legislation

[email protected]

Richard WillettsDirector of Longevity

Partnership


#populationpatterns


Richard Willets

• A commercial perspective

• International Longevity Centre – 28 November 2013

Uses of census information

April 11, 2023

32

• Some use of the detailed information provided– (including data published at Output Area level)

• Very widespread use of individual age mid-year population estimates for England & Wales

Mortality rate (for each age) = death count / mid-year population

estimate

2-d ‘surface’ of mortality rates

Life expectancy projections used to

value pension scheme liabilities

and assess insurance company

solvency

Impact of the 2011 Census on population estimates

April 11, 2023

33

• Source: own calculations using ONS data

Revision to England & Wales population estimates for mid-year 2011 following 2011 Census, by ageRevision to England & Wales population estimates for mid-year 2011 following 2011 Census, by age

40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Females Males

Impact on apparent mortality improvement rates

April 11, 2023

34


Annual rates of mortality improvement, males in England & Wales, 2001-2011, by age,before and after publication of 2011 Census results


80-84 85-89 90-94 95-990.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%2010-based

Impact on apparent mortality improvement rates

April 11, 2023

35


80-84 85-89 90-94 95-990.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

2010-based

Revised



Example consequences

April 11, 2023

36

• *Source: ONS • **Source: own calculation

• Small but material reductions in the projected lifespans of pensioners/annuitants (typically circa 1%)

• Likely to see more significant revisions in the projected number of elderly individuals

The ONS publication “What are the chances of reaching age 100?” published in Spring

2012 projected that 12% (95,000) of individuals aged 65 would reach age 100*

A more realistic projection – following the publication of Census 2011 results – might be approx 7%-8% (about 60,000 individuals)**

More significant revisions in the US

April 11, 2023

37

• Source: Wall Street Journal

• In 2004 the US Census Bureau projected there would be:-• 114,000 Americans aged 100 plus in 2010• 1.1 million centenarians in 2050

• Following the 2010 Census, figures revised to:-• 53,364 Americans aged 100 plus in 2010• 0.59 million centenarians in 2050

Options for Beyond 2011

April 11, 2023

38

• ‘Once a decade’ approach• Population estimates at high ages can ‘drift’ significantly away from reality

between censuses• But we can be reasonably confident that figures are correct on the census

date

• ‘Administrative data’ approach• May provide estimates with more consistent accuracy• Could be difficult to monitor degree of accuracy over time• Particular challenges in making high age estimates

If the latter approach is chosen:-need to test accuracy of higher age estimates (ideally with a transition period of ‘dual running’)

Thank you

April 11, 2023

39

Partnership is a trading style of the Partnership group of Companies, which includes; Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05465261), and Partnership Home Loans Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05108846).

Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Partnership Home Loans Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office for both companies is Sackville House, 143-149 Fenchurch Street, London EC3M 6BN.

Professor Peter GoldblattDeputy Director, Department of Epidemiology

& Public HealthUCL Institute of Health Equity


#populationpatterns

Professor Heather JoshiProfessor of Economic and Developmental

Demography, Emeritus Professor, Centre for Longitudinal Studies

Institute of Education University of London


#populationpatterns

cls.ioe.ac.uk

‘The End of the Census’

ILC-UK, 28th November 2013

Remarks by Heather Joshi, IOE.

Census Continues

FOR

Comprehensive Details

Geographical granularity

locality of disadvantage

Relationships- variables

-people

Households and families– Eg Complex households

Carers – co-resident/ others

Comparability over time

Continue the ONS LS

AGAINST

Only once in ten years

Not timely

Cost

Irregular work-flow

Uncertain success on-line

Unpopular?

Admin census + surveys

FOR

Up to date information

Timely

Cheaper

Could include new variables

AGAINST

Limited spatial resolution

Quality not proven

Limited scope for linkage of individual records across people or data sets

May not provide continuity or historical record

The best of both

Keep census for at least another round

Develop admin sources for current updates

Enrich admin data sources, developing address and e-mail data bases.

Pilot new approaches for more gradual introduction of new modes.

Professor Ludi SimpsonBeyond 2011 Independent Working group

University of Manchester


#populationpatterns

Beyond 2011 Independent Working Group

http://popgeog.org/beyond-2011-independent-working-group/

International Longevity Centre28 November 2013

Ludi Simpson, University of ManchesterPresident British Society for Population Studies 2011-13

(Drawing on comments by many others)

Option: Admin records for population estimates, 4% survey for attributes

• Very positive potential for population estimates

• Attractive promise of more annual statistics• But lost, by design

– Flow data for migration and commuting– Longitudinal data from linking census records– Nationally comparable data for small areas

• Risks of new legislation and methods

Option: online census

• Maintains a known structure and continuity• Challenges of response, that also affect a

survey• Option not developed sufficiently to prove

opportunities for efficiency

How will we interpret area attribute data pooled over different numbers of years?

• Helpful survey accuracy tool from ONS– 40% CI is very wide for adequate estimates?

• Smaller populations (areas, or social groups)– Large Each year– Medium 3 year average– Small 5 years or more average

• Key need currently satisfied once each decade: Compare social change in area X with area Y– Often impossible even for averages of less than 10 years– When possible, best data may be from different time periods

Examples of information loss without a census

• Causes of death linked to life circumstances– Recent and lifetime: Longitudinal Study

• Age-sex-structures national and sub-national– Unproven validation of estimates from

administration records (RSS comments; legislation)– Survey insufficient for detailed age structure of

social groups within local authorities, even once in 10 years

Examples of information loss without a census

• Life chances linked to place– Unable to identify from a survey even over ten

years:• Health related to private renting within cities• Overcrowding in housing neighbourhoods• Cultural demand for burial services in towns

• Response to emergencies (flooding, industrial, ...)– Affected areas not predictable in advance, local

information now from census will not be available

Costs and benefits2013 prices across one decade

• Costs in 2021– Census option (£625m) more than Survey (£460m): +

£165m (ONS consultation paper C1)

• Benefits to users– Census option (£797m) more than Survey (£557m): +

£240m (preliminary, ONS consultation paper C3)

• “Census saves £1bn” – (Head of Census Glen Watson to Commons S&T Cttee 2011)

Biggest decision on UK social statistics for many decades

• Neither option alone is optimal– A disaster to rely on administrative data, but

stupid not to take advantage of them– Knowledge of small populations is essential to

stable government, but a mainly paper census is inefficient

An organised transition to...

• A replacement for the Census– Validated attributes from administrative records

together with survey modelling, offering mainly equivalent and better products than Census, tested with a mainly online 2021 Census

• The Census as a basis for updates– A mainly online census, with legislation to allow

samples to be drawn from it– A mainly online census, with legislation to allow a

personally updateable record

Consultation to December 13th 2013

• The seriousness with which government will treat their decision

• The examples which will be taken into the political and media arenas

• Individuals and organisations

We are interested in a copy of your comments:[email protected]://popgeog.org/beyond-2011-independent-working-group/

has link to presentations and examples from October 21st event

mailto:[email protected]

http://popgeog.org/beyond-2011-independent-working-group/

Phil RossallResearch Manager

Age UK

Vivienne AveryResearch Adviser

Age UK


#populationpatterns

Voluntary Sector use of Census data – supporting the daily work of Age UK

Phil Rossall and Vivienne Avery

Age UK

28 November 2013

• Mission – to improve the lives of older people • Social enterprise and charity• 7 areas of activity • 170 local Age UKs • 3000 employees• 50,000 volunteers

There are over 200,000 charities in the UK

and some much bigger than us!

Introduction to Age UK

Who uses research and statistics in Age UK?

• Campaigns Team: basis of Care in Crisis and Spread the Warmth campaigns

• Research Team: in-house research, Economic Monitor, research publications

• Media Team: stats and survey-led press releases (e.g. loneliness, winter alerts)

• Policy Team: Agenda for Later Life report, policy briefs, submissions to parliamentary committees, consultation responses

• Services: stats support for local Age UKs, Information and Advice, special projects (e.g. digital inclusion programme)

• Local partners: independent charities, e.g. bids for commissioned services

• Enterprises and shops: support services, product choice e.g. mobile phones, customer intelligence (market failure)

• Training: nurses, social workers awareness training, empathy

Development of the exercise programmes in the NSF falls services (2001)

Development of the DWP ageing strategy in ‘Opportunity Age’ (2005)

Development of the Social Exclusion Units strategy in ‘A Sure Start to Later Life’ (2006)

Development of treatment for reducing post-event inflammation in thrombotic stroke (2009)

Changes to the diagnosis and treatment of urinary incontinence (2010)

Removal of the default retirement age (2011)

Examples of Age UK Research Impact

Examples of using LSOA data (1)

• Strategic planning • Targeting services for older people - growing focus on

loneliness and vulnerability need for data with multiple characteristics

Examples of using LSOA data (2)

Combining Census, benefits, transportation & advice service data to help locate a new local office to reach those with the greatest needs

Data also used for• Fundraising• Tendering for commissioned

services• Impact and evaluation

Local Age UK views on Census proposals“It is already hard to find detailed information using the current available data. The changes would make this even trickier to look at need in localised areas, making it hard to apply for funding and produce evidence or track changes which may be positive in terms of work relating to the prevention agenda.

Lack of data may cause further inequalities to develop for populations which are already disadvantaged. This is especially relevant for Stockport as it is very varied - we have some of the wealthiest pockets and some in the top ten IMD. These pockets are small so would cease to be significant.” Age UK Stockport

“It seems shocking to me that HMG are so poor at capturing and manipulating reliable current data. Tesco knows my age, my politics, my favourite television programme and in all likelihood the hour of my death.” Age UK Northampton

Ready for Ageing?

Future Census and population statistics must address• Population growth• Life expectancy gap• Changing servicesHealth & social care – aiding independent livingUrban planning / Housing Retirement income / planning financially for

older age Addressing inequality – interplay between age,

gender, generation & wealth

Population Growth and Life Expectancy Gap

Living with long-term / multiple conditions (dementia)

Local Authority level data masks the detailed picture

Medical records provide data on the condition rather than it’s impact on daily life

Our thoughts on ONS proposals

Internet Census• We know the methodology works down to low levels• The data are rich and valuable • Should be easy to get >16% response overall but will need to

take care with 80+ age group – numbers who have never used the internet are increasing

Admin records/Survey Census• Timeliness benefits – by 2010 much unreliable data – poor

resource allocation and decision making• Survey potential for more detail at local authority level but

compulsory? Can merged survey years really produce reliable LSOA data?

• Merged admin data should produce better neighbourhood data over time but concerned there will be a data gap in short term

Our conclusions

• Small State v Big Society We need the best information possible –little difference between an annual cost of 80p & £1.10 per person given costs of market failure due to lack of information. NHS annual budget per person is c£2,000 + education, transport etc

• Before taking a final decision we need a better impact assessment beyond population numbers for local authorities – more evidence of how combined survey and admin data will measure up at smaller areas

• We need a better development programme and more dual running to

enable us to decide when not if a traditional Census can be replaced. That programme should include identifying broader future information needs not just for ageing but more widely.

Thank you!

To contact us:

[email protected]

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Panel Debate and Q&A


Population Patterns Seminar Series supported by Partnership

Thursday 28th November 2013


#populationpatterns

the end of the census? population patterns seminar series supported by partnership

News & Politics