the european ppp market 29 april 2008 hugh blaney

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Page 1: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

The European PPP Market29 April 2008

Hugh Blaney

Page 2: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

2

The information contained in this presentation is given without any liability whatsoever to Babcock & Brown Limited or any of its related entities (collectively “Babcock & Brown”) or their respective directors or officers, and is not intended to constitute legal, tax or accounting advice or opinion. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or thoroughness of the content of the information. The recipient should consult with its own legal, tax or accounting advisers as to the accuracy and application of the information contained herein and should conduct its own due diligence and other enquiries in relation to such information. The information in this presentation has not been independently verified by Babcock & Brown. Babcock & Brown disclaims any responsibility for any errors or omissions in such information, including the financial calculations, projections and forecasts set forth herein. No representation or warranty is made by or on behalf of Babcock & Brown that any projection, forecast, calculation, forward-looking statement, assumption or estimate contained in this presentation should or will be achieved.

Please note that, in providing this presentation, Babcock & Brown has not considered the objectives, financial position or needs of the recipient. The recipient should obtain and rely on its own professional advice from its tax, legal, accounting and other professional advisers in respect of the addressee’s objectives, financial position or needs.

This presentation does not carry any right of publication. This presentation is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by Babcock & Brown. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Babcock & Brown.

.

DISCLAIMER

Page 3: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

3

AGENDA

1. Introduction to Europe

2. Market Overview

3. Political & Legal Environment

4. Sector Development

5. B&B in Europe & Globally

For further information please contact:

Hugh Blaney5 Aldermanbury Square, London, EC2V 7HR+44 20 7203 [email protected]

Page 4: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

4

INTRODUCTION TO EUROPE

• 48 countries – vast opportunity (€225bn annual infrastructure investment)

• January 2007 EU had 494m citizens

• EU 27 (+3) countries

Challenges:

• Language

• Legal framework

• Stakeholder buy-in

• Forms of PPP

Page 5: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

5

MARKET OVERVIEW

CountryGDP ($bn)

Population Comment

Austria 320 8.2Early development, limited deal flow

Belgium 379 10.4Early development, limited deal flow

Czech Republic

249 10.2Early development, reasonable potential deal flow

Denmark 204 5.4Early development, limited deal flow

UK 2,147 60.9Advanced development, large deal flow

Finland 186 5.2Early development, limited deal flow

France 2,067 60.8Intermediate development, strong potential deal flow

Germany 2,833 82.4Intermediate development, strong potential deal flow

Greece 326 10.7Early development, strong potential deal flow

Hungary 194 10Early development, limited deal flow

Source: A Practical Guide to PPP in Europe

CountryGDP ($bn)

Population Comment

Ireland 188 4Intermediate development, reasonable deal flow

Italy 1,800 58Intermediate development, strong potential deal flow

Netherlands 639 16.6Intermediate development, reasonable potential deal flow

Norway 194 4.6Early development, limited deal flow

Poland 625 38.6Early development, reasonable potential deal flow

Portugal 204 10.5Advanced development, reasonable deal flow

Romania 247 22.2Early development, limited deal flow

Russia 1,589 143.8Limited development, strong potential deal flow

Spain 1,362 40.5Advanced development, large deal flow

Sweden 333 9Limited development, very limited potential deal flow

Page 6: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

6

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

Positive political championing with specific legal framework

Positive political championing with well adapted legal framework

Reasonable to some political championing with limited or adapting legal framework

No political championing with no legal framework

Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia

UK, Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Spain

Austria, Denmark, Finland, Hungary

Sweden, Norway

• Central government sponsorship is essential for successful PPP delivery and has been achieved by specific Task Force or PPP units e.g. PPP units exist in:

• It is essential that these groups have appropriate involvement and authority in the PPP process

• Czech Republic • Ireland • Greece

• UK • Italy • Portugal

• France • Netherlands • Hungary

Page 7: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

7

DEVELOPMENT BY SECTOR

PPP Projects Closed by Sector

Accommodation Health & Education

Transport Defence Water & Waste Water

UK, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Romania

Austria, Denmark, UK, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain

Austria, UK, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden

UK, France, Germany

Austria, Belgium, UK, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Romania

Page 8: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

8

OVERVIEW

• Taken as a whole, Europe’s PPP markets are still in their infancy

• More than 50% of PPP markets still at an early stage

• UK has been a clear leader

• New member states are showing keen interest in PPP as they have new budgetary constraints and the need to improve infrastructure

Page 9: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

9

UK

• Up to the end of 2007 UK has signed PFI & PPP projects with a capital value of £60bn

• 60 signed projects in 2007, worth £7.3bn (drop from the record £9.6bn in 2006)

• Recent years have seen a rise in average deal size – £122m in 2007

• Greater focus on procurement costs, reducing the number of smaller contracts

• PFI accounted for about 10-15% of public capital expenditure since 1996

– Transport – biggest PFI / PPP department accounting for £17.8bn of PPP projects (excludes Metronet Contract)

– Health – projects worth £12.6bn

– Defence (accommodation, marine vessels, satellites, garrisons) – projects worth over £8bn with and average size of £134m

– Education – projects worth £6bn (largest sector in 2007)

Source: International Financial Services, PFI in the UK & PPP in Europe

Department Number £m % share

Transport 62 17,754 29.7

Health 269 12,555 21.0

Defence 62 8,321 13.9

Education 156 6,427 10.8

Cabinet Office 107 5,285 8.8

Scottish Exec. 68 2,500 4.2

ODPM 52 1,400 2.3

DEFRA 22 1,333 2.2

H M Treasury 34 1,189 2.0

DCA 22 625 1.0

Welsh Assembly 7 522 0.9

DTI 9 393 0.7

DCMS 4 353 0.6

H M Cust. & Rev. 2 342 0.6

DWP 12 302 0.5

Others 13 446 0.8

Total 901 59,747 100

Page 10: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

10

EUROPEAN PPP PROJECTS

• Outside of the UK, PPP has been rising rapidly

• €27bn PPP projects procured between 2001-2007

PPP Contracts in Europe (ex. UK)

0

2

4

6

8

10

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

An

nu

al v

alu

e o

f s

ign

ed

de

als

, €

bn

Country

PPPs 2001-07

Value of Contract €bn

Total No. of Signed Deals

Spain 4.1 38

Italy 3.5 20

Ireland 2.9 18

France 2.9 26

Greece 2.4 7

Germany 1.9 34

Belgium 1.8 5

Netherlands 1.7 6

Poland 1.5 2

Austria 0.9 6

Finland 0.7 1

Bulgaria 0.7 6

Cyprus 0.5 1

Portugal 0.5 6

Others 1.0 17

Total 27 193

Source: International Financial Services, PFI in the UK & PPP in Europe

Page 11: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

11

B&B IN EUROPE

• B&B Approach– Active developer since 1997

– Strong local presence with a wide range of skill sets

– Flexibility of approach – PPPs different risk profiles and delivery process throughout Europe

– Strong relationships with local partners and clients

– Long term investor

– Focused approach & thorough analysis of opportunities (business case, political buy-in, delivery team)

Page 12: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

12

B&B EUROPEAN PIPELINEUK

Intercity ExpressAlso:WasteHealthCourts

France

Perpignan TheatreSathonay GendarmeriesPrison of SanteHSL SEACastres, ToulouseA355Route des VosgesDDERail Bretagne Pays de LoireCanal Seine Nord VNF

Italy

Sassari Hospital (€160m)Mestre Proton Therapy Centre (€160m)Brescia II (€130)Grugliasco University Campus (€250)Various car park portfolios (€75m)

Germany

TransAlp – TransportAlso:Education, Health & Govt.Buildings

Belgium

TransportEducationGovt. BuildingsSocial Housing

Turkey

HealthTransport

Portugal

MotorwaysRailHealthAirports

Greece

Education (€326m)Courts (€100m)Health (€763m)Custodial (€198m)

Ireland

EducationCourtsHealthArtsCustodial

Page 13: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

13

B&B AUSTRALIAN PPP PROJECTS

Reliance Rail

Long BayForensic Hospital

New SouthWales Schools

RiverCity Motorway

Royal MelbourneShowgrounds

Orange Hospital

Royal Children’sHospital

LEAP Two (defence housing)

South Australian Schools

Victoria Schools Project

Brisbane Link Airport Toll Road

Singapore Schools

Page 14: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

14

B&B NORTH AMERICAN PPP PROJECTS

• Projects in tender or at PB

Kelowna VernonHospital, BC

Oakland AirportConnector, CA

Fort Lauderdale I-595, FL

Port of Miami Tunnel, FL

CHUM ResearchCentre, QC

CHUM Hospital, QC

Montreal Symphony, QC

Alberta Schools, AB

Bridgepoint Hospital, ON

Midway Airport, IL

PennsylvaniaTurnpike, PA

Durham Courthouse, ON

Page 15: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

15

CONCLUSION

• PPP is a global procurement solution to infrastructure investment needs

• Vast opportunities for PPP in Europe (€225bn pa of shortfall)

• Over 50% of European countries are at the early stages of PPP development

• PPP development is robust to downturn in economic cycles

• B&B is applying its global PPP experience locally in:

• Strong growth prospects for the B&B / BBPP platform

- UK - Belgium - Italy - Germany

- Ireland - France - Portugal

Page 16: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

The European Renewable Energy Market29 April 08

Guy Thackwray

Page 17: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

17

RENEWABLES: ATTRACTIVE MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

• Strong political backing:– EU targets 20% of total energy to be sourced from renewables by 2020

– Kyoto protocol ratified by the EU calls for a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2020 (compared to 1990)

• Demand for electricity will continue to increase in the future driven by: (i) demographics: population growth; (ii) strong economic growth in emerging markets; and (iii) urbanisation

• Supportive regulation: most OECD countries have already set appropriate regulation to expand the market share of renewables within the generation mix through the following mechanisms:

– Feed-in tariffs: fixed tariff or fixed premium to market price is granted to output and guaranteed over a certain period - usually fall-back to market price or lower tariff thereafter in absence of repowering

– Green certificates: green producers are provided with these certificates that can be sold to polluters at a market price

– Other incentives: investment grants, accelerated tax depreciation, supplement for reactive energy and repowering incentives

• High oil price narrows the gap between regulated tariff and market price of electricity

Page 18: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

18

WIND ENERGY

• 94GW installed wind capacity worldwide as of year-end 2007

• Wind capacity expected to grow by 25% p.a. through 2012 reflecting supportive regulation and increasing demand for electricity in general

• Asia and the US forecast to outperform market growth at respective CAGRs of 31% and 37%

• Germany is the most mature market with 22GW installed, while European countries such as Italy, France, Portugal and the UK offer significant growth potential

• B&B well positioned worldwide

Global cumulative wind capacity forecasts (GW)

75.961.348.136.627.319.4

129.5

110.793.9

78.866.7

56.8

67.5

53.7

41.7

30.9

21.714.0

15.0

11.5

8.5

6.5

4.93.8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E

Pacific & Others

Asia

Europe

Americas

Source: BTM Consult

Total wind capacity installed per country (MW)

Source: BTM Consult

CAGR 25%

2,150

2,394

2,471

2,721

3,088

5,875

7,845

14,717

16,879

22,277

Portugal

UK

France

Italy

Denmark

China

India

Spain

US

Germany

B&B/BBW country

non B&B/BBW country

Page 19: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

19

B&B/BBW - TOP 3 DEVELOPER IN WIND ENERGY WORLDWIDE

Page 20: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

20

Americas 20.6%

Asia 14.9%

Pacific & Others 4.0%

Europe 60.4%

FOCUS ON WIND ENERGY

• Within renewables, B&B has been focusing on wind energy :

– Wind energy is one of the most economical sources of alternative energy - European average feed-in tariffs of ~ € 80/MWh vs. average West-European wholesale price of ~ € 55/MWh

– Wind energy represents one third of generation new build in European OECD countries

• Global wind capacity has shown a 25% CAGR since 2002 and BTM Consult expects a similar CAGR over 2008-2012

• European market is the most mature, accounting for 60% of the global capacity as shown below on the right

Historical global installed wind capacity (MW) Installed wind capacity breakdown as at year-end’07

31,158

39,502

47,656

59,198

74,214

94,005

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

CAGR 25%

Source: BTM Consult Source: BTM Consult

Page 21: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

21

OVERVIEW OF REGULATORY REGIMES

Green certificatesGreen certificatesFeed-In TariffFeed-In Tariff

– Utilities are legally obliged to provide a certain minimum share of energy produced from RES in their total yearly sale

– Utilities can choose between generating its own RES energy or buying from another generator to meet the RES requirement

– A Green Certificate represents one megawatt hour (MWh) of renewable energy from an existing facility metered and verified by certifying agency

– Green Certificates are freely negotiated between utilities and RES generators

– Feed-in tariffs guarantee a fixed price, or a fixed remuneration in addition to the market price

– Generally, this mechanism includes priority access to the grid

– Utilities or transmission companies are obliged to purchase all the energy from renewable energy sources

– Different alternatives

- Guaranteed fixed price

- Fixed guaranteed premium plus energy market price (sometimes with cap and floor)

- Fixed price depending on annual production

- Term of 15, 20 years or for the whole life of the asset

Reg

ula

ted

ren

ewab

le p

ow

er p

rice

re

gim

es

Other incentives to support renewable energyOther incentives to support renewable energy

– Supplement for reactive energy: providing energy during hours of voltage dips provide the producers with supplementary income from the hours produced on top of the regulated tariff

– Accelerated tax depreciation: given the large investment required in turbines and construction of the wind turbines, accelerated depreciation ensures often that renewable energy producers do not have a heavy tax burden

– Investment grants: in certain countries (most notably Greece), the Government pays part of the eligible investment

– Repowering incentives: by reinvesting in a wind project (most notably turbines), the Government regards the project as new, and it can benefit from the often beneficial tariff available

European regulatory regimesEuropean regulatory regimes

Fixed feed-in tariff

Green certificate

Oth

er in

cen

tive

s to

pro

mo

te

ren

ewab

le e

ner

gy

Page 22: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

22

6.8

5.1

3.6

2.9

1.2

6.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

IberdrolaRenovables

Acciona FPL EDP BBW/B&B EDFEnergie

Nouvelles

B&B/BBW ARE LEADING PLAYERS IN WIND ENERGY

• With 2.9GW installed capacity as at year-end 2007, the combination of B&B and BBW is the 5 th largest wind player worldwide

• B&B has a development pipeline of some 17,000MW as at year-end 2007, the third largest in the world

B&B/BBW installed capacity as of 31/12/2007 (GW)1 B&B/BBW pipeline as of 31/12/2007 (GW)2

1 Gross capacity 2 Gross capacitySource: Babcock & Brown Source: Babcock & Brown

41.1

17.115.8 14.8

12.415.0

20.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

IberdrolaRenovables

Gamesa BBW/B&B Acciona FPL EDP EDF EnergieNouvelles

Page 23: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

23

9.3%8.9%

4.9%

4.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

BBW/B&B EDP Iberdrola Renovables EDF EnergieNouvelles

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500Annual additional capacity as % of pipeline

Annual additional capacity (MWs)

302495 515

80 80 80 80 80 80 80

1,396847 892

370 400 400 400 400 400 400

570

600

800

900

1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Northern America

Europe

Oz/NZ

B&B/BBW HAVE ONE OF THE MOST MATURE WIND PIPELINES…

B&B/BBW prob. weighted incremental annual capacity (MW) Average added capacity/gross pipeline

• B&B/BBW expect to add some 1,600MW p.a. on average over 2008-2016, of which 500MW in Europe

• The ratio of annual incremental capacity over communicated gross pipeline is a good measure of pipeline maturity and quality

Source: Babcock & Brown Source: Babcock & Brown

Page 24: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

24

SOLAR POWER - A NEW AREA OF INTEREST

• Significant growth potential with PV accounting for less than 1% of electricity generated from renewable sources

• PV panel prices have been decreasing by 6.5% year-on-year for a number of years, making projects more competitive

• B&B is looking at Photovoltaic (PV) as well as Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)

Page 25: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

25

PV POWER PLANTS ARE IDEAL FOR INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTORS

The PV generation sector has very attractive characteristics for B&B: - Wide resource availability - High expected growth rates - Continuous technology innovation and improvement of economic efficiency - Utility type cash flow profile - Increasing demand for renewable energy

a. Long term secured public subsidies: in most countries legal frameworks recognise a fixed feed-in tariff for a period of 20 or more years (400-500 €/MWh)

b. Capital intensive sector: PV energy plants require very high capex (~€5M/MW) and present low and predictable O&M costs

c. Predictable plant efficiency: yearly energy production depends only on the solar radiation at the specific site. This data is readily available for any possible location and remains very stable in time (variance max. 5%)

d. Low technological complexity: plants are structurally simple (arrays of panels, fixed metal structure, electric wiring, inverters) and extremely stable and reliable with a technical life of 25-30 years

e. High financial leverage applicable

Page 26: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

26

Distinctive capabilities

THE SOLAR SECTOR IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR B&B

1. Successful development in wind energy has allowed B&B to acquire all the competencies and skills necessary along the solar value chain for a successful entrance (i.e., site identification, engineering, project management, procurement and project finance)

2. Early mover position to secure pipeline of good sites, framework agreements with developers and cost advantages on solar panel supply

3. The acquisition of Enexon brought on-board the necessary specialised skills and a pipeline of opportunities

4. The organisation for project development and opportunity origination in place is a mix of internal development and agreements with developers

Page 27: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

27

CONCLUSION

• Political and social drivers for renewable energy will continue to increase

• Increasing costs of traditional generation and potential cost of carbon make renewables increasingly attractive

• Different tariff regimes and political backing will drive different levels of growth in different countries

• B&B is well positioned to benefit from the growth of this market worldwide

Page 28: The European PPP Market 29 April 2008  Hugh Blaney

28

DISCLAIMER

The information contained in this presentation is given without any liability whatsoever to Babcock & Brown Limited or any of its related entities (collectively “Babcock & Brown”) or their respective directors or officers, and is not intended to constitute legal, tax or accounting advice or opinion. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or thoroughness of the content of the information. The recipient should consult with its own legal, tax or accounting advisers as to the accuracy and application of the information contained herein and should conduct its own due diligence and other enquiries in relation to such information.

The information in this presentation has not been independently verified by Babcock & Brown. Babcock & Brown disclaims any responsibility for any errors or omissions in such information, including the financial calculations, projections and forecasts set forth herein. No representation or warranty is made by or on behalf of Babcock & Brown that any projection, forecast, calculation, forward-looking statement, assumption or estimate contained in this presentation should or will be achieved.

Please note that, in providing this presentation, Babcock & Brown has not considered the objectives, financial position or needs if the recipient. The recipient should obtain and rely on its own professional advice from its tax, legal, accounting and other professional advisers in respect of the addressee’s objectives, financial position or needs.

This presentation does not carry any right of publication. This presentation is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by Babcock & Brown. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Babcock & Brown.