I see…Uhhh…

TOURISM

DEVELOPMENT

S: The future

just isn’t the

same

anymore…

Kurt AckermannGetaway Travel & Tourism Conference 1 September 2011

Ozinsky & Ackermann

SMART PHONES ON

(BUT SILENT)

Conference Hashtag:

#GT&TC2011@kurt_a

Once upon a time back in 2010…

Everyone knows what happens to a World Cup host…

The future

• Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)

The future

• Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)

The future

• Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)

(pessimist view)

circa-2012

Future Tourism Economy

The future

• Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)

(Lovely muck)

Aristocratic elite travellers

Tourism industry as anarcho-syndicalist commune

(optimist view)Future Tourism Economy

NostalgicPython-ic

OK, let’s get serious…

“What ARE the key

developments affecting the

future of South Africa’s tourism

industry?”

First, a brief pause to get defensive…

1400+

industries

No ‘Tourism’

per se

Source: Gauteng Tourism Theme Paper, 2009

‘Industry’

vs.

‘Economy’

Overcapacity!Undercapacity!

Municipalities

Bad marketing!

SMMEs

Poor Service Quality!

National Department

0Global

Recession!

SA Tourism

0Airline Fees!

DMOs

0No

DomesticFocus!

Private Sector

(2010 IMNSHO)

Brand improvement

“FIFA President, Sepp Blatter, has given South Africa 9 out of 10 for organising a successful World Cup.” (12 July 2010)

2010 a

technical and

football success

“I am shocked,

shocked…”

October 2007

“The sobering reality of mega-events is that nearly all host cities and nations learn a hard lesson: they over-estimate the benefits beforehand and get stuck with under-utilised infrastructure afterwards. They face an extended period of anti-climax…”

“Loss of permanent

visitors”

SINCE 2010

Jozi, Cape Town

IRT bus services

High-speed

rail

Photo: urbanjoburg

MPUMALANG

A…the

implosion

continues

TSHWANE…getting it together

BUFFALO CITY

?!?

Rhino

poaching

Source: SAN Parks data via stoprhinopoaching.com

15 July218

31 May173

400+ 2011 est.

TODAY

Tourism

Stats

Bookings DownOver-capacityToo Expensive

Long Haul is Dead‘Oh *(@#!’

SA Economic Output Doubled

“A rising tide lifts all

boats”

South Africa’s GDP

World GDP Growth

Tourism Core Market GDP Growth

Your Traditional Customer

Photo: flickr.com/allforblue

The Pain is Real.

Key Facts

× Overseas and domestic travel down× African land travel volume up× Total spend up× Weak job creation× Government spending up× Innovation required to stay

competitive

Key

Actions× R35bn government investment in

tourism infrastructure by 2020× Resolution of land ownership

obstacles by 2012× Minimum work standards by 2012× Domestic tourism focus× 5 new African offices× More regional programmes

(TFCAs)× Emphasize rural & less visited

areas× TBCSA or similar at provincial and

city levels× National Convention Bureau× PCO accreditation× National VICs using national

database× Grading extensions beyond

accommodation× Government procurement from

BEE-compliant service providers only

Then Now

NowThen

Companies

Act 71 of

2008

Electricity Tariff Increase

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Sales Price

c/kWh 53%

415%

90%

77%

Electricity

price doubles

twice in 10

years

BRIC + S

Photo: China News

Lion’s share of GDP growth to

2014

Bigger economies than G7 by

2050

Not driven by consumer spending

National Standard for Responsible

Tourism

Cape Town Declaration

RESPONSIBLE TOURISM IN DESTINATIONS

Shaping sustainable spaces into better places

We, representatives of inbound and outbound tour operators, emerging entrepreneurs in the tourism industry, national parks, provincial conservation authorities, all spheres of government, tourism professionals, tourism authorities, NGOs and hotel groups and other tourism stakeholders, from 20 countries in Africa, North and South America, Europe and Asia; having come together in Cape Town to consider the issue of Responsible Tourism in Destinations have agreed this declaration…

2002

Cape Town: Best Destination 2009

Calabash Tours (PE): Overall Winner 2004

Dyer Island Cruises: Best In a Marine Environment 2006 – Highly Commended

Stormsriver Adventures: Best for Poverty Reduction 2008- Highly Commended

Calabash Tours (PE): Best for Poverty Reduction 2004

Voluntours: Best Volunteering Organisation 2008- Highly Commended

Great Plains Conservation: Best for Conservation of Wildlife and Habitats 2009

KZN: Best Destination 2011 - Longlisted

20011996

20042006

20082009

2011

IOC Sport and Environment Award 2011

20112010

SANS 1162:2011National Standard for Responsible Tourism

2011

HighExpectation

s

HEADED OUR WAY

Tourism BEE Charter

targets ratchet up in 2013

Carbon-

constrained

future

?

UNCERTAINTY:

Risk? or Opportunity?

LONGER TERM FACTORS

City-regions

as gateways

Local Travel.

Slow Travel.

LOHAS

“The Good Life”

OMG

+2 billion

people in next 40 years…

Consider 2001 – 2011…

$29.23/bbl2001

$73.44/bbl2011

2.5x increase

in real dollar terms

2001

UNCERTAIN CERTAINTIES

2014 Elections?

WE ARE NOT ALONE IN THIS

Photo: ibntimes

Photo: historymike.blogspot.com

“…The dominion of the West, is ending, not rapidly but steadily. Growth, jobs, expansion, excitement — and, yes, possibility — lie in the great non-Western arc from China through India to South Africa and Brazil. Go South! Go East! That’s the dictum of the age…”

Roger Cohen, International Herald Tribune and New York Times, 13 August 2011

“May you live in

interesting times.”

“Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us.”

Kurt Ackermannkurt@imagineer.cc

@kurt_aAfrika-T.com

Fortune

favours the

bold.