the future of book publishing
DESCRIPTION
This presentation by Mark Coker, founder of Smashwords, examines the future of book publishing. The presentation was given at the Fremont Writers chapter of the California Writers Club on December 8, 2012.TRANSCRIPT
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EBOOKS AND THE FUTURE OF PUBLISHING
Fremont Area Writers Conference
Mark Coker Founder, Smashwords
Twitter: @markcoker
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My Backstory
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We were repped by one of the top NY literary agencies
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Publishers Said “No”
• Despite great efforts of our agent, every major publisher said NO (TWICE!)
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I imagined hundreds of thousands of other writers just like us
Silenced
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Is it possible our book sucked?
Do we suck?
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Or is Traditional Publishing the problem?
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The Problem with Traditional Publishing
1. Publishers control * the printing press* the distribution* the knowledge to professionally publish
2. Publishers reject most authors
3. Publishers judge books on perceived commercial merit
4. Publishers decide what readers can read
5. Slow production cycles (12-18 mo)
6. Print books too expensive
7. Books forced out of print early
8. Authors earn only 5-17% of list price
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I Envisioned a More Democratic Form of Publishing
1. Authors gain access to:* the printing press* the distribution* the knowledge to professionally publish
2. Authors free to publish what they want
3. Instant publishing
4. Readers choose what they want to read
5. Immortal books, never go out of print
6. Low cost books increase affordability
7. Authors earn the lion’s share of the proceeds
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My Answer: Smashwords
• FREE ebook publishing platform
• Ebook printing press
• Distribution to major ebook stores
• Best practices knowledge
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How Smashwords Works
1. UPLOAD
• Upload a Microsoft Word file, formatted to our Smashwords Style Guide
• Ready for immediate sale online
2. DISTRIBUTE
• Distribution to major retailers
3. GET PAID
• Author receives 85% of net
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0
50000
100000
150000
200000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Indie ebooks published at Smashwords
1406,000
28,800
92,000
185,000 +(today)
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Enough about me.
Let’s talk about your future as a writer.
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Let’s bust a dangerous myth
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What myth should we bust?
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The Myth of Big Publishing
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You were taught to bow subservient before the altar of Big Publishing
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you weren’t an author until a publisher blessed you as such
… and unless you got a book deal, you were a failure
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… and in a sense it was true
Publishers held all the power to connect you with readers
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You were told to keep toiling and waiting.
And waiting…
Rejection would make you stronger
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… and if you dared indulge in the carnal pleasures of self-publishing...
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Publishers were the bouncers at the pearly gates of author heaven
• Promised Perks of the Afterlife
• editing
• printing press
• distribution
• marketing
• royalties
• fame and respect
• readers
• “published author” inscribedon your tombstone
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You were told …
you’d get a deal when you perfected your craft like these other great published writers
…
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Justin Bieber got a book deal
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Snooki got a book deal
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Kourtney, Kim and Khloe got a book deal
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Stop
Don’t sell your soul
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The old model of publishing is broken
It has become harmful
to writersto readersto books
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Yet your future is brighter than ever
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You have options today that didn’t exist back in
the dark ages of publishing (four years
ago)
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Q:
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF WRITERS LOST FAITH IN THE MYTH OF BIG PUBLISHING?
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“GOD IS DEAD” Friedrich Nietzsche
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IS BIG PUBLISHING DEAD?
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No, though it has lost its way
You will decide the fate of Big Publishing
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YOU’RE IN CHARGE NOW
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WE LIVE IN UNCERTAIN TIMES
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BOOK PUBLISHING IS COLLIDING WITH MULTIPLE CONVERGING FORCES
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Let’s examine the forces, and what these changes mean for your future
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NINE TRENDS TO ROCK THE WORLD OF PUBLISHING
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TREND ONE
Bookselling moving to the Web
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Percentage of book purchases made online vs B&M, Print and E-
Brick &Mortar
Web
Today?
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Bookselling moves to the Web
• The decline of brick and mortar
• Consumer drivers:• Price
• Convenience
• Selection
• Self-published books displayed side by side with traditional books
• Big publishers no longer control distribution
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TREND TWO:
Reading Moving to Screens
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Screens are the new paper
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A blast from the past: Ebook market share in 2008
Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Ebooks as a percentage of US wholesale trade market
Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org. 2012 Smashwords estimate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
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Ebooks to overtake print
Print books
EbooksUnitsDollars
Print books
Ebooks
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Why ebooks are hot
• Screens offer better reading experience than paper
•
Changeable font size A B C D• Portable and compact
• Screens will get better/faster/cheaper
• Ebooks offer better consumption experience
• Lower cost than print
• Convenient sampling and purchasing
• Huge selection
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TREND THREE
The Rise of Ebook Self-Publishing (a.k.a indie ebook publishing)
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Number of books published indie vs. traditional
Indie books
Today?
New trad. books
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Indies are Now Out-Publishing Big Publishers
• Indie author advantages
• faster time to market
• greater creative control
• lower expenses
• better distribution to global market
• Immortal ebooks never go out of print
• lower prices to consumers
• earn more per book
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Indies are Now Out-Publishing Big Publishers
• Indies scaling all the bestseller lists
• Four Smashwords authors hit August 5 NY Times Bestseller list.
• Every week, indie ebooks are in the bestseller lists of every retailer
• This month, Apple iBookstore AU/NZ launched “Breakout Author” promotion – Smashwords only
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QUADRUPLE +
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Indie Ebook Authors Earn Higher Percentage of List Price
• Indies earn more at lower prices
• Indies earn more selling a $.99 ebook ($.60-$.70) than a traditional $8.00 MMP ($.40)
• At $2.99, indies earn $1.80. Trad. author would have to sell at $10.25
• Lower price = reach more readers = more sales at higher profits per sale
60-80% 12-17%
Indie Traditional
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TREND FOUR
Content Explosion Leads to Downward Pressure on Prices
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Glut leads to ebook price competition
March 2012October 2010
$4.25
$3.15
Average price of Smashwords ebooks
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... Impact of content explosion
• The glut will only become more pronounced
• Excess supply leads to price competition
• Lower prices increase affordability and accessibility
• More books will be read than ever before
• Readers will still pay for books
• Can publishers drop prices to $2.99-$3.99?
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TREND FIVE
Publishers Losing Monopoly as Writers Gain Tools to Self-Publish
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Big Publishers Have Lost Their Monopoly
• Printing press is free to all
• Distribution free to all
• Knowledge to publish, distribute and market high-quality, professional books is free to all
• Professional authors asking:
• “What can a publisher do for me that I can’t do for myself?”
• “Will a publisher actually limit my ability to reach readers?”
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TREND SIX
Print is Dead for Most Self-Published Authors
(and will become less and less important to traditionally published
authors)
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Print is Dead
• Brick and mortar bookstores disappearing
• Most self-pubbed authors don’t have access to brick and mortar distribution
• Customers choosing low cost ebooks over high-priced print books
• Exceptions:
• Face to face print sales will continue
• Some books are meant for print (for now)
• Specialty souvenir books sold in non-traditional outlets
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TREND SEVEN
Ebooks are going global
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The Global Ebook Opportunity
• Countries outside the US are entering the exponential phase of their ebook growth
• Ebook retailers going global
• Apple iBookstore (50), Amazon (10), Kobo (many), B&N (U.K.+)
• 46% of Smashwords/iBookstore sales global
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TREND EIGHT
Big NY Publishers are in Trouble
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Big Publisher Headwinds
• Hamstrung by legacy print business
• Print business in decline, slow to adopt ebooks
• High expense structures
• Ebooks sell for less, so revenues under pressure
• Consolidation
• Big 6 now Big 5, soon to be Big 3
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Suffering Self-Inflicted Wounds
• Not serving writers
• Bumbled entry into self-publishing
• Pricing ebooks too high
• Writers are angry
• Let’s review a couple of these…
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Authors Singing Twisted Sister’s “We’re Not Gonna Take it!”
• Publishers:
• Reject you
• Delay you
• Value your work on perceived commercial merit
• Strip you of your creative freedom
• Force you to do most of your own marketing
• Force you out of print too soon
• Pay you only 5-17% of list price
• Price your books too high
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Publishers’ High eBook Prices Threaten Writer Careers
Why?
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Book buyers are price sensitive
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Authors Yield Two Benefits from Every Sale
1. Money from the sale
• Unit sales X royalty per unit = profit
2. Gain a fan
• Fans spread word of mouth, recruit new fans
• Fans eagerly await your next book
• Fans are less price sensitive
Pricing strategy essential to maximize both
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How Price Impacts Units Sold
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What Price Yields Highest Earnings?
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Publishers’ bumbled entry into self-publishing will backfire
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In July, the parent company of Penguin acquired Author Solutions
Author Solutions earns over 2/3 of its income selling over-priced services to authors
$25,000 publishing packages!
Blood sucking parasites
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Writers DON’T need to pay a king’s ransom to self publish
Ebook self-publishing is fast, free and easy
Print self-publishing can be free or extremely low-cost
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TREND NINE
The Previous Stigma of Self-Publishing is Disappearing
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Stigmas to reverse
Aspire Traditional
Aspire Indie
Today?
Aspire Indie
Aspire Traditional
4 yrs ago Future?
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The Plan Forward
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The 9 Trends Create a Future that …
Benefits Indie Authors
Disadvantages Some Traditionally Published Authors
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You have the right to publish
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For the sake of humanity, you have an obligation to publish
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Your words have value
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You are your own gatekeeper
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YOU decide when your manuscript graduates to PUBLISHED BOOK
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Unleash your words upon the world
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Honor your readers with your words
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Give readers great books that are as good or better than those released by
Big Publishers
(and do it faster with lower prices)
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The task before you is not easy.
It requires hard work.
yet…
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The Opportunity to Reach Readers Has Never Been Greater
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Welcome to the new world of publishing
You’re in charge now.You have options.
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Who’s The Future of Publishing?
Look around you, that’s who.
YOU are the future of publishing!
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Free Ebook Publishing Resources
• NEW! Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success (best practices of successful authors)
• Smashwords Book Marketing Guide (how to market any book)
• Smashwords Style Guide (how to format an ebook)
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Thank you for considering the future!
Q&AConnect with Mark Coker and Smashwords:
Web: www.smashwords.com
Blog: blog.smashwords.com
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/markcoker
Facebook: facebook.com/markcoker
HuffPo: huffingtonpost.com/mark-coker
Twitter: @markcoker