the future of gas - vemw
TRANSCRIPT
THE FUTURE OF GAS
TNO Energy | Rene Peters
OVERVIEW
The Global perspective on gas and changing views on the role of gas
European and Dutch perspective and development
Groningen, N2 and storage
Elements of the new energy system
Concluding remarks
4-4-2018 9:29 Titel van de presentatie
THE VIEW OF OIL AND GAS IS CHANGING OVER TIME – DRIVEN BIJ INCIDENTS OR REALITY? 1999 2003 2009 2013
OLD FRAME OF GAS:
POSITIONING GAS AS A SAFE
AND SECURE ENERGY
SOURCE, BUT ALSO
RELATIVELY CLEAN
AND AFFORDABLE.
schoon betaalbaar
betrouwbaar veilig
Kernernergie
Duurzaam
(zon/wind/biomassa) Kolen
Gas
THIS WAS ONLY 8 YEARS AGO
'Gasrotonde levert economie miljarden op‘, Telegraaf 09-12-2010
NEW PUBLIC FRAME OF GAS
POLLUTING AND DANGEROUS
6
RECENT GLOBAL CHANGES
IMPACTING VIEWS ON GAS
Global and EU
Gazprom interrupting gas to Ukraine – EU dependency of gas
Fukoshima disaster Japan – drive from nuclear to gas as energy fuel?
Atom Ausstieg Germany – back to coal/gas
Energiewende Germany – drive to renewables (and coal)
Shale Gas development US and Canada – change from LNG import to export
EU focus on energy transition, introduction of decarbonized sources
NL:
Seismicity Groningen, Huizinge and Zeerijp events – changed public view on gas
LNG import via GATE terminal Rotterdam with new applications in mobility
More focus on biobased sources such as Biogas and Green Gas in the distribution grid
Future development of Synthetic Natural Gas, Power to Gas and Hydrogen in the grid
Admixing with NG or pure transport?
THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF GAS IN THE WORLD
WORLD PROVEN GAS RESERVES AND REPLACEMENT RATE
From: IEA special report on gas
• The European Commission's Energy Roadmap 2050: – Gas is a critical fuel for transition to low-carbon energy system
– Gas replacing oil and coal can reduce CO2 emissions
– Gas has a permanent role in future energy mix besides CCS
• EU will become more dependent on energy imports in the future – In particular gas
• Europe will be affected by shale gas activities elsewhere around the world, via
the global gas/LNG market
EU PERSPECTIVE ON GAS
GAS IS NOW THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF POWER
28 September 2016 10 | VP Geo Energy
AND THE CONSUMPTION OF GAS IS INCREASING
28 September 2016
IN UK, GAS IS
CONSIDERED A
SOLUTION
TO REDUCE
CO2 EMISSIONS
UK:
Phase out coal
Increase biofuels/biogas
Increase gas
Increase renewables
Similar in US and China
CO2 emissions reduce as a result of
a switch from coal to gas
28 September 2016
EUROPE IS STILL HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON GAS
Total EU demand
500 BCM and
increasing
Indigenous production
is in decline
i.e. more import from
Russia
Norway
Algeria
LNG
28 September 2016
CHANGE IN NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION BY REGION
NORTH SEA IS THE FIRST REGION GOING INTO DECLINE
From: IEA special report on gas
UK and NL
INTERNATIONAL GAS MARKT PRICES
Gas and LNG prices in decline with increased supply worldwide
Ondertussen in Gasland
THE IMPORT
DEPENDENCY
OF RUSSION GAS
INCREASES
10 januari 2011
Russian gas import 180 bcm/yr
~30% of EU demand
~60% of EU import
Gepolitical impact mostly at
east European countries with
no access to other markets or
LNG
SOURCE OF DUTCH WEALTH
GAS EARNINGS IN THE NETHERLANDS
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 18
From TNO: www.nlog.nl
GAS PRODUCTION IN THE NETHERLANDS UNTIL 2013
OFFSHORE GAS IN DECLINE SINCE 2007, GRONINGEN AT ITS PEAK
10 januari 2011 M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
19
From TNO: www.nlog.nl
CURRENT STATUS W.R.T. NATURAL GAS IN NL (2017)
481 gasfields discovered (2017)
both on- & offshore
241 In production
5 converted to gas storage
90 depleted
32 planned for production
75 “stranded fields”
N.B. infrastructure (platforms and
pipelines) are at maximum and will
decline from now on!
Current reserves: 740 BCM (20 jr)
Of which 586 BCM in Groningen
RELATION PRODUCTION GRONINGEN
AND SEISMICITY
21 | Induced seismicity of the Groningen field
for events ML ≥ 1.0 Annual production
DEVELOPMENTS THAT IMPACT THE TRANSITION TO NET IMPORT
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 22
Groningen field
Small fields
Gas demand in NL
Export > 2020 < Import
1. Declining demand
2. Groningen production cap
3. Innovation in small fields
4. Exploration potential
Vraag
(mrd m3)
2018 2030
45
20
10 Gasvraag kleine industrie (tuinders, kantoren)
Gasvraag huishoudens
Exportverplichting
GASVRAAG GRONINGEN KWALITEIT
Aanbod
(mrd m3)
2018
45
23
Aanvulling uit Groningenveld
Capaciteit N2 voor pseudo G-gas
~2027
GASAANBOD GRONINGEN KWALITEIT
2030
Aanbod
en vraag
2018 2030
45
23 20
10
Aanvulling uit Groningenveld
Capaciteit N2 voor pseudo G-gas
Gasvraag kleine industrie (tuinders, kantoren)
Gasvraag huishoudens
Exportverplichting
2027
GASAANBOD EN –VRAAG
GRONINGEN KWALITEIT - ACTIES
OPTIES REDUCTIE GRONINGEN GAS (LC)
?
Verschil leveringszekerheid <> voorzieningszekerheid <> veiligheid
N2 capaciteit is voldoende voor de totale vraag na ~2027
Extra N2 capaciteit is (te) laat beschikbaar (~2021)
Export vraag is maximum, en sterk weersafhankelijk
Meer opslagcapaciteit (bv Norg) kan piekvraag opvangen
Van vlak profiel naar seizoensgebonden profiel Groningen
Huishoudens ombouwen naar HC gas duurt (te) lang
Minder gas gebruik door besparingen en isolatie etc. is (te) traag
Kleine industrie ombouwen naar HC is een oplossing op korte termijn
Nieuwe velden met LC gas versneld ontwikkelen voor middellange termijn
ISSUES
GASNET
BELGIE
1.6 Mln huishoudens
Ombouw tot 2030
Inclusief doorvoer Frankrijk
L-GAS GEBIED
DUITLAND
4.9 Mln huishoudens
Ombouw tot 2030
Gebruik extra N2 capaciteit beperkt
Gebruik extra L-berging mogelijk
BENUTTING STIKSTOF FABRIEKEN
Huidige baseload capaciteit, voornamelijk Wieringermeer (215.000 m3/hr) en Ommen (146.000 m3/hr)
Maximale base load capaciteit H-gas + N2 (Pseudo G-gas): 21 BCM
Onbenutte capaciteit gas jaar 2016/2017: > 8 BCM
Wiebes: nieuwe faciliteit Zuidbroek
Extra capaciteit Pseudo G-gas: 7 BCM
Inzet?
28 September 2016 30 | VP Geo Energy
Gas jaar MAXIMALE N2
FIRM
Nm3/hr INZETBARE N2
FIRM
%
firm
GEBRUIKTE N2 %
max
%
firm
2014/2015 0 0 686.572.144
2015/2016 2.420.144.000 276.272 1.964.938.067 81% 1.113.003.221 46% 57%
2016/2017 3.162.360.000 361.000 2.778.616.700 88% 1.706.998.321 54% 61%
2017/2018 1.175.777.000 1.070.524.667 91% 869.416.662 74% 81%
Data: GTS
INZET BERGINGEN VOOR LAAGCALORISCH GAS
Nederland
Norg wordt gebruikt voor opslag
Groningen gas, niet pseudo G-gas
Maximale opslag voor pseudo G-gas
is 4 BCM vanwege transport
beperking
Kan vraag Groningen 4 BCM verlagen
Duitsland en Belgie
Zeer beperkte opslagcapaciteit B
6 L-gas bergingen Duitsland
Worden afgebouwd naar 2030
Mogelijk extra capaciteit te benutten
voor leveringszekerheid in de winter.
28 September 2016 31 | VP Geo Energy 1 BCM ~ 10 TWh
NEW DISCOVERIES
OFFSHORE GAS
Discovery Hanze Hydrocarbons (2017)
Ruby Field - North of Groningen
GIIP 8 BCM (probably expanded)
20% N2, Low Caloric value gas
Potential expansion Tanzaniet, Apatiet
Potential 1 - 2 BCM/yr full field dev.
Green development, ‘’zero emission’’
28 September 2016 32 | VP Geo Energy
THE FUTURE OF ENERGY SYSTEM
SHOULD BE HYBRID AND FLEXIBLE
We need clean electrons and molecules
Combination of fossil and renewable sources
Flexible in supply, central & decentralised
Storage via batteries, heat, gas, liquid
Energy transport via gas, electricity, heat
Conversion power to heat, gas, liquid
System integration of energy sources
Energy transition, a bumpy road
SOME ELEMENTS OF THE FUTURE
ENERGY SYSTEM
ENERGY IN TRANSPORT Diversification of fuels
Low sulfur diesel
GTL/BTL
Biofuels
Gas (LNG/CNG)
Electric
Hydrogen
Synthetic fuels
For heavy duty
applications electric
is not an option
Decarbonising fuels
is a key driver
Energy transition, a bumpy road
Groningen
Norway
Russia
LNG import
Shale Gas ?
Biogas ?
SNG ?
H2 ?
Gas quality monitoring
more important
Energy transition, a bumpy road
SOME ELEMENTS OF THE FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM
A TRANSPORT NETWORK WITH MULTIPLE GAS SOURCES
10 januari 2011
37
SOME ELEMENTS OF THE FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM
THE GAS GRID WILL BECOME A SMART GRID
SMART GAS GRIDS
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT GAS COMPOSITION CHANGES
PROVIDING OPERATIONAL SUPPORT TO THE OPERATOR
38 | Innovation in Oil and Gas Exploration & Production
Gas network of the Texel island Section of the smart gas network
• Operator support
• Gas quality monitoring
• Gas quality prediction
• Security of supply
• Maintenance support
Increasing amount of offshore wind power generated intermittently will require
power balancing via energy storage, energy conversion or energy use in the
North Sea. Power to Gas / Hydrogen will play a major role
Energy transition, a bumpy road
SOME ELEMENTS OF THE FUTURE
ENERGY SYSTEM
OFFSHORE WIND AND POWER TO GAS
Offshore wind
SYSTEM INTEGRATION OPTIONS
OFFSHORE ENERGY
Electrification of offshore
gas platforms
Power to Gas (P2G) & H2 transport
Carbon Transport and Storage (CCS)
Gas to Wire Energy storage
Development of large-scale offshore wind can be integrated
with offshore gas infrastructure along the following main options:
Targets:
Emission reduction (CO2, NOx)
Grid balancing
Efficient use of socialised cost
Re-use of invested capital * Full report on www.tno.nl see www.north-sea-energy.eu
POWER TO X CONVERSION OPTIONS
Energy transition, a bumpy road Source: 2016 - ENEA - The potential of power-to-gas
Industrial use
Energy storage
Gas-to-Power Liq.-to-Power
POWER TO GAS DEMO PROJECTS GERMANY
H2
to store energy
to source H2 network
as a product for chemical
industry
Energy transition, a bumpy road Source: Uniper (2016)
Next step:
Power to methane
Power to methanol
Power to DME
Earlham
P01-FA Q1
P15 cluster
P18 Cluster
Rotterdam
Dutch North Sea Trunkline
Rotterdam CO2 Gateway
Onshore connection to collection network
Intersection
CO2 CAPTURE, TRANSPORT AND STORAGE
PCI “ROTTERDAM NUCLEUS”
December 7 2017 Offshore CO2 storage
Enabling storage of 30 MT/yr of CO2 offshore
Source: 2013 - DVGW
Hydrogen admixing in the grid
Gro
ss
ca
lori
fic v
alu
e (
=H
HV
), H
s [
kW
h/m
3]
Analysis based on German DVGW Worksheet G 260. From the perspective of the regulations for the gas
characteristics of fuel gases for public gas supply system
admixing of hydrogen gas is possible:
• up to 15% H2 admixing for Groningen gas
• up to 15% H2 admixing for North sea gas
• up to 3% H2 admixing for Russian gas There are potential limitations of H2 additions for the structural elements in the natural gas grid and of gas consuming technologies: • Pipelines in high/medium/low-pressure grid: H2 addition
of up to 50 vol.% is considered uncritical.
• Existing gas turbines: limited to 1-5 vol.% H2. Higher
percentages are possible by adding fuel a gas
methanation unit.
• Ultrasound, turbine, and diaphragm gas meters: suitable
for high H2 concentrations.
• Volume conversion devices may be used without any
restrictions for gas mixtures containing up to 10 vol.%
H2.
• No major problems are expected with gas engines at H2
contents of up to 20 vol.%, provided that the engine
specific methane numbers are met. Yet the DIN 512624
provision is very restrictive in that it specifies a maximum
H2 addition of 2 vol.%.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
The global role of gas is increasing, as a source of low carbon energy, to improve air quality
EU production of conventional gas resources is in decline, dependence of Russia is
increasing, LNG import should be stimulated
Gas Strategy of the Netherlands
Groningen production to be reduced to minimise seismic risk
More efficient use of N2 facilities and L-gas storage capacity
Offshore small fields policy should be strengthened to reduce import dependence
Renewable gas sources should be developed to reduce climate impact
Gas infrastructure should be prepared for renewable gas (Green Gas, SNG, H2)
Knowledge position build up needed for Hydrogen as a clean gas for industry, mobility
and households, including attractive energy storage and transport option
International renowned position of NL as a gas production, transport, trading and storage
should be maintained, and expanded with renewable gas such as Hydrogen
THE FUTURE OF GAS IS BRIGHT
Take a look: TIME.TNO.NL