the future of wind energy: work from the umass...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Future of Wind Energy: Work From The UMass IGERTPresented by Erin BakerProfessor, Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Director, NSF IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy, Environmental Impacts, and PolicyUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst
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EXPERT ELICITATION SURVEY ON FUTURE WIND ENERGY COSTSPresented by Erin BakerProfessor, Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Director, NSF IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy, Environmental Impacts, and PolicyUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst
Based on: Wiser, Jenni, Seel, Baker, Hand, Lantz, & Smith (2016) Nature Energy Vol 1 : 16135
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Expert ElicitationA structured method for eliciting subjective probabilities from experts.
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Summary of key results
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Summary of key results
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Summary of key results
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Summary of key results
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Estimated change in LCOE over time across all three scenarios. Depicts the median of expert responses for expected LCOE reductions in the median (50th percentile) scenario as well as the low scenario (10th percentile) and high scenario (90th percentile) in percentage terms relative to 2014 baseline values. Floating offshore wind is compared against the 2014 baseline for fixed-bottom offshore. See Supplementary Discussion for full results.
Estimated Change in LCOE over time
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Significant uncertainty around cost reductions for floating offshore
Note: Change is shown relative to baseline for fixed-bottom offshore as no 2014 baseline was established for floating offshore
$80/Mwh$75/Mwh
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Historical and forecast experience curves for onshore wind
11
10
100
1000
10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
LCO
E $/
MW
h
cumulative capacity (MW)
Historical US LCOE: Good to Excellent Sites (DOE 2015b)Historical Denmark LCOE (DEA 1999)Historical Coastal European LCOE (Lemming et al. 2009)Historical Global LCOE (BNEF 2015a)
LR 15.5LR 10.5%
LR 18.6%LR 17.8%
Historical LCOE estimates come from four sources (Global: BNEF 2015a; US: DOE 2015b; Denmark: DEA 1999; European Coastal: Lemming et al.2009). Historical single-factor learning rates (LRs) are calculated based on cumulative global wind capacity. To estimate the implicit learning rate from the expert elicitation, we use median-scenario LCOE estimates and a range of projections for cumulative global wind capacity from IEA “New Policies” (IEA 2015), Bloomberg “Base Scenario” (BNEFb 2015), and GWEC “Moderate Scenario” (GWEC 2014).
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Forecast experience curves for offshore wind
12
10
100
1000
10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000
LCO
E $/
MW
h
Cumulative Capacity
Historical US LCOE: Good to Excellent Sites (DOE 2015b) Historical Denmark LCOE (DEA 1999)
Historical Coastal European LCOE (Lemming et al. 2009) Historical LCOE (Denmark, Germany, Global) (BNEF 2011)
Historical Global LCOE (BNEF 2015a) Expert Survey: Low Scenario Forecast
Expert Survey: Median Scenario Forecast Expert Survey: High Scenario Forecast
Expert survey offshore low Expert survey offshore mid
Expert survey offshore high Expert survey offshore low
Expert survey offshore mid Expert survey offshore high
Offshore Wind Experience curves, assuming cumulative learning
Offshore Wind Experience curves, assuming a fresh start
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Estimated change in LCOE for (a) onshore and (b) fixed-bottom offshore: expert survey results vs. other forecasts. Depicts the median of expert responses for expected LCOE reductions in the median (50th percentile) scenario as well as the low scenario (10th percentile) and high scenario (90th percentile) in percentage terms relative to 2014 baseline values. Other forecasts are included for comparison, originally compiled and presented in a U.S. Department of Energy report (DOE 2015).
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Conclusions• Significant opportunity for cost reductions• Option value in policies that increase future flexibility
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Erin Baker, Professor of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Director of IGERT
IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy Engineering, Environmental Impacts, and Policy
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
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A diverse group of PhD students interested in Wind Energy
Area # MajorsEngineering 17 Mech, Indus, CivilEnvironment 9 Wildlife ecologyPolicy 4 Env. Conservation;
Planning; Poli Sci
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IGERT Fellows, Associates, and Alumni 2015-2016
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UMass IGERT
• 17 fellows• Departments of
Mechanical & Industrial EngineeringCivil & Environmental EngineeringElectrical & Computer Engineering
Engineering Offshore Wind Energy Systems
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20Mechanical & Industrial Engineering [email protected]
UMass IGERTEngineering Offshore Wind Energy Systems
Understanding the impacts and benefits of offshore wind coupled with storage• Underwater CAES• Environmental Implications• Multi-objective Optimization • Resource Assessment
Carson Pete
Energy Conversion Unit
Underwater Storage System
Deep-Water Floating Wind Turbine
𝑁𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒= 𝑓(𝑑, 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟,𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑟, 𝑉)
Advisor: Jon McGowan
Energy Conversion Unit
Underwater Storage System
Deep-Water Floating Wind Turbine
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21Mechanical & Industrial Engineering [email protected]
UMass IGERTEngineering Offshore Wind Energy Systems
Design optimization of floating offshore wind turbine rotors
• Explicitly account for aerodynamic and platform motion coupling in design load cases
• Reduce sensitivity to meta-ocean conditions• Improve aerodynamic efficiency and reduce cyclical loading
Evan GaertnerAdvisor: Matt Lackner
575 580 585 590 595 6000.48
0.49
0.5
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.54
0.55
Time(s)
Coe
f. of
Pow
er, C
p
NREL 5MW Reference BladeOptimized, OnshoreOptimized, Spar with periodic waves
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22Mechanical & Industrial Engineering [email protected]
UMass IGERTEngineering Offshore Wind Energy Systems
William La Cava
- + TG V1
Data
Evolutionary Multi-objective Optimization
Control Design
TurbineDynamics
Automatic identification of closed-loop wind turbine dynamics• Control Design• Evolutionary
Optimization
Advisor: Kourosh Danai
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23Mechanical & Industrial Engineering [email protected] 650 655 660 6650
5
10
15
Time (s)
Res
ulan
t Mud
line
Mom
ent (
MN
-m)
1% Damping
5% Damping
UMass IGERTEngineering Offshore Wind Energy Systems
Casey Fontana• Quantifying role of foundation damping
in the dynamics of monopile-supported offshore wind turbine
• Examining efficient multiline anchor systems for floating offshore wind turbines
Advisors: Sanjay ArwadeDon DeGroot
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U
Wake-induced vibration of clustered cylinders for new mooring systemsDan Carlson
UVortex shedding of upstream cylinder vibrates downstream cylinder
The cylinder response is comprised of many higher structural modes: fatigue!
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UMass IGERTEngineering Offshore Wind Energy Systems
Rachel Koh
• Evaluating if renewable bio-based materials can be used for megawatt-scale wind turbine blades
• Investigating the mechanical properties of wood and flax laminates to see if they have potential for the wind turbine blade application
Advisors: Matt LacknerBob HyersPeggi Clouston
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Portfolio 1
Portfolio 2
Portfolio 3
hydro 3000 3000 10000onshore wind 5000 3000 10000
nuclear 4091 2000 2700solar 5000 3000 10000
natural gas 10000 15000 5000coal 6000 500 5000
Table 1: The Level of Capacity (MW) in each Generation Portfolio
Figure 5: The level of Capacity and Energy for each technology
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3
Equal Weight Preference Scenario
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh) Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh Jobs (FTE/GWh)
Evaluation of Generation Portfolios for the New England Power System
Destenie Nock and Erin Baker
Chart1
hydro
wind
nuclear
Solar PV
Natural gas
coal
Energy
Portfolio 1 - Energy by Source
0.0763290966
0.0605439388
0.2795544622
0.0783791171
0.4976766434
0.0075167418
Information
All of the sustainability infromation is calculated in the Data sheet. The capacity factor was not taken into account on the par graphs on the right. This is due to the provided portfolios being reliable, which was the purpose of capacity factor in the origional model.INPUTSOUTPUTS
The only input values are the power output and capacity for each technology in sheets Portfolio 1-3The sustainability factors and graphs found in the Data and Contribution Charts sheets.
The Contribution Charts sheet contains the pie graphs for each chart, showing how each technology contributes to the installed capacity and the total energy output.
Sheets Portfolio 1-3 calculate the sustainability factors for each input Portfolio. The installed capacity and energy output are the only inputs. This will adjust the data in the Data sheet.
Preference Scenarios contains the same weights Klein and Whalley used for the sustainability factors. They are used to make the stacked graphs in the Data sheet.
LCOE - Portfolio 1-3 calculates the LCOE value for each portfolio using the capacity factors found in sheets Portfolio 1-3
Results
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 1237.5468088014767.9074757414354269.39002751516.28046740470.00000554750.58370917040.44223504880.06478026280.08660176290.10541629950.0698068809
Portfolio 2310.7365903656749.1696617697373532.0196226421359.83500649130.00000712640.56729074140.55226415090.05374489250.06803123830.08034895120.0570357755
Portfolio 3215.64509466442118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000544340.70280137690.34016393440.07877704070.11081367270.13843571430.086156731
min215.6450946644749.1696617697354269.39002751359.83500649130.00000544340.56729074140.34016393440.05374489250.06803123830.08034895120.0570357755
max310.73659036562118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000712640.70280137690.55226415090.07877704070.11081367270.13843571430.086156731
Normalized Life Cycle GHGNormalized Air PollutionNormalized Land UseNormalized Water UseNormalized FatalitiesNormalized JobsNormalized CFNormalized 3% LCOENormalized 7% LCOENormalized 10% LCOENormalized 4% LCOE
Portfolio 10.76967746720.986314405110.27563370160.93814479870.12115970810.51875997090.55915208860.56593109050.56844990170.5614462127
Portfolio 2010.952520579910001111
Portfolio 310001110000
Equal WeightLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.10005807070.12822087270.130.03583238120.12195882380.01575076210.06743879620.07268977150.07357104180.07389848720.0729880077
Portfolio 200.130.12382767540.130000.130.130.130.13
Portfolio 30.130000.130.130.130000
AvailabilityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.46688397380.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621
Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01
Portfolio 30.010000.010.010.90000
Climate ChangeLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.69270972050.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.00518759970.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621
Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01
Portfolio 30.90000.010.010.010000
Climate Change-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.34635486020.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.00242319420.01037519940.25161843990.25466899070.25580245580.2526507957
Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.450.450.450.45
Portfolio 30.450000.020.020.020000
EconomicLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.00518759970.50323687970.50933798140.51160491150.5053015914
Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.90.90.90.9
Portfolio 30.010000.010.010.010000
EnvironmentalLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.17702581750.22685231320.230.06339575140.0281443440.00363479120.01556279910.01677456270.01697793270.01705349710.0168433864
Portfolio 200.230.21907973340.230000.030.030.030.03
Portfolio 30.230000.030.030.030000
JobsLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.10904373730.00518759970.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621
Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01
Portfolio 30.010000.010.90.010000
Jobs-climate change-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.23090324020.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.03634791240.01037519940.16774562660.16977932710.17053497050.1684338638
Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.30.30.30.3
Portfolio 30.30000.020.30.020000
Jobs-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.01539354930.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.05452186870.01037519940.25161843990.25466899070.25580245580.2526507957
Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.450.450.450.45
Portfolio 30.020000.020.450.020000
Socio-economicLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.0230903240.22685231320.030.0082690110.21577330370.02786673290.01556279910.12860498040.13016415080.13074347740.1291326289
Portfolio 200.230.02857561740.030000.230.230.230.23
Portfolio 30.030000.230.230.030000
Results
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Availability
Contribution Charts
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Equal Weight
Portfolio 1
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Climate Change
Portfolio 2
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Climate change-economy
Portfolio 3
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Economic
Preference Scenarios
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Environmental
LCOE - Portfolio 1
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Jobs
LCOE-Portfolio 2
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Jobs-climate change-economy
LCOE - Portfolio 3
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Jobs-economy
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Socio-economic
Energy ContributionPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Percentage of Installed CapaciyPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Capacity
% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contributionhydro0.0906590916
geothermal binary0%0%0%geothermal binary0%0%0%wind0.151098486
hydro8%10%15%hydro9%11%23%nuclear0.1236287812
offshore wind0%0%0%offshore wind0%0%0%Solar PV0.151098486
onshore wind6%4%12%onshore wind15%11%23%Natural gas0.302196972
nuclear28%14%19%nuclear12%8%6%coal0.1813181832
biopower0%0%0%biopower0%0%0%
PV8%5%16%PV15%11%23%Energy
Geothermal flash0%0%0%Geothermal flash0%0%0%hydro0.0763290966
Natural gas50%68%31%Natural gas30%57%12%wind0.0605439388
coal1%0%8%coal18%2%12%nuclear0.2795544622
CSP-MB0%0%0%CSP-MB0%0%0%Solar PV0.0783791171
CSP-TES0%0%0%CSP-TES0%0%0%Natural gas0.4976766434
CSP-FF0%0%0%CSP-FF0%0%0%coal0.0075167418
Portfolio 1-Energy Contribution
Portfolio 2-Energy Contribution
Portfolio 3-Energy Contribution
Portfolio 1 - Capacity Contribution
Portfolio 2 - Capacity Contribution
Portfolio 3 - Capacity Contribution
Portfolio 2 - Energy Contribution
Portfolio 2 - Capacity Contribution
Capacity
Portfolio 1 - Capacity by Source
Energy
Portfolio 1 - Energy by Source
New England Power Output (MW)New England Installed Capacity (MW)Energy Percentage ContributedPercentage of Total CapacityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)GHG ContributedAir pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Air Pollution ContributedLand use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleLand use (m^2/MW)Land Use ContributedWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Water Consumption ContributedFatalities/GWhFatalities ContributedJobs (FTE/GWh)Jobs ContributedCF Klein minCF-kleinCFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE - 3% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rateLCOE - 4% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE - 7% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE - 10% Contributed
geothermal binary000%0%6013105.4210682820174100.0000002101.2200.750.95000000000
hydro111730008%9%70.5343036764554.198100314325.012957682.6268140.8177450064491342.79397293970.00000580.00000044270.960.07327593280.450.870.37233333330.06140591930.00468705830.06834245670.0052165180.09151874050.00698554280.1174820690.0089673002
offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000
onshore wind88650006%15%110.6659833265965.81221812221.169379.210483.09207941740.260.01574142410.000000520.00000003150.330.01997949980.240.410.17720.08299864470.00502506490.09167930360.00555062610.12068302750.00730662580.15317456990.0092737918
nuclear4091409128%12%123.354653546521259.26554598880.1329039.43590.10562992962725761.78590952580.000000920.00000025720.470.13139059720.850.910.04314099440.01206025750.04663562090.01303719590.05831182920.01630133210.07139215020.0199579941
biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000
PV114750008%15%483.76219762279362.15463987970.8138316.245789.525852951231.80271969390.000000130.00000001021.470.11521730220.180.220.22940.14247902670.01116738030.16003785490.01254362580.21870522170.01714192220.28442758370.0222931829
Geothermal flash000%0%58013102.2143559104200.0000002200.9100.750.9000000000
Natural gas72831000050%30%449223.4568129015988491.70452371190.3132587.29847.7531655133795395.65293152930.00000940.00000467820.480.23888478880.40.850.72830.04677987570.02328125150.04820970940.02399284640.05298705440.02637041940.0583388950.0290339055
coal11060001%18%7685.772857728619260144.77244772451.48311155.256418.0955546825189314.22919229190.0000170.00000012780.660.00496104960.80.850.01833333331.13869152540.00855925021.25933135470.00946606871.66241184850.01249592072.11396445030.015890125
CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000
CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000
CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000
total1463433091100%100%237.5468088014767.9074757414354269.39002751516.28046740470.00000554750.58370917040.44223504880.06478026280.06980688090.08660176290.1054162995
Use 4% discount rate
Do sensitivity on this-see how it changes
Show 4% in graphs
competetive level is 5 cents
New England Power Output (MW)New England Installed Capacity (MW)Energy Percentage ContributedPercentage of Total CapacityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)GHG ContributedAir pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Air Pollution ContributedLand use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleLand use (m^2/MW)Land Use ContributedWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Water Consumption ContributedFatalities/GWhFatalities ContributedJobs (FTE/GWh)Jobs ContributedCF Klein minCF-kleinCFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE - 3% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rateLCOE - 4% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE - 7% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE - 10% Contributed
geothermal binary000%0%6013105.4210682820174100.0000002101.2200.750.95000000000
hydro1450300010%11%70.6935428767555.449265459525.012957682.6334831.992452834491444.95729415780.00000580.00000057460.960.09511445170.450.870.48333333330.04792380130.0047481730.0532673270.00527759650.07112105740.00704650040.09112177320.0090281224
offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000
onshore wind53230003.6%11%110.3998633413963.48971643321.169379.27854.24905660380.260.00945131530.000000520.00000001890.330.01199590020.240.410.17733333330.08293909680.00301493680.09161322890.0033302520.12059514550.00438377980.15306225820.0055639987
nuclear2000200014%8%121.639904338921228.97164332080.1329039.42191.65283018872725372.39494362830.000000920.00000012570.470.06422958660.850.910.04314099440.0058955920.04663562090.00637316310.05831182920.00796881850.07139215020.0097563581
biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000
PV68830005%11%482.256508370379337.27939870170.8138316.244337.6875471698231.08124359410.000000130.00000000611.470.06910556880.180.220.22933333330.14252044510.00669997040.16008437750.00752566120.21876879880.01028445050.28451026620.0133749958
Geothermal flash000%0%58013102.2143559104200.0000002200.9100.750.9000000000
Natural gas99641500068%57%449305.6942944995988672.66361462250.3132587.218445.5849056604795541.2627263410.00000940.00000639980.480.32680013670.40.850.66426666670.04800878120.03268599220.04957644670.03375331160.05481431350.03731942740.06068205570.0413143835
coal15000%2%7680.0524769388192601.3160232321.48311155.25870.852830188718930.12934745470.0000170.00000000120.660.00004509740.80.850.00210.24783991580.000700228211.35370501780.000775791315.04860954490.001028261719.18784172790.0013110927
CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000
CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000
CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000
total1463526500100%100%310.7365903656749.1696617697373532.0196226421359.83500649130.00000712640.56729074140.55226415090.05374489250.05703577550.06803123830.0803489512
New England Power Output (MW)New England Installed Capacity (MW)Energy Percentage ContributedPercentage of Total CapacityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)GHG ContributedAir pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Air Pollution ContributedLand use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleLand use (m^2/MW)Land Use ContributedWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Water Consumption ContributedFatalities/GWhFatalities ContributedJobs (FTE/GWh)Jobs ContributedCF Klein minCF-kleinCFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE - 3% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rateLCOE - 4% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE - 7% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE - 10% Contributed
geothermal binary000%0%6013105.4210682820174100.0000002101.2200.750.95000000000
hydro21351000015%23%71.0289156627558.084337349425.012957682.6692665.7142857144491660.12289156630.00000580.00000085250.960.14110843370.450.870.21350.10508019030.01544552190.1171771650.01722363150.1575954460.02316463180.20287419370.0298200622
offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000
onshore wind16861000012%23%111.27683304659611.14327022381.169379.216248.0562060890.260.03017969020.000000520.00000006040.330.03830499140.240.410.16860.08703843320.01010304980.09616187780.01116206030.12664503240.01470041480.16079391330.0186642711
nuclear2700270019%6%122.23063683321239.40791738380.1329039.41836.21498829042725506.54044750430.000000920.0000001710.470.08736660930.850.910.04314099440.00801932430.04663562090.00866892780.05831182920.01083937620.07139215020.01327083
biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000
PV22931000016%23%487.577555938793125.18753872630.8138316.248973.3583138173233.63091222030.000000130.00000002051.470.23206265060.180.220.22930.14254116330.02250236750.1601076490.02527551390.21880060120.03454112070.28455162540.0449209554
Geothermal flash000%0%58013102.2143559104200.0000002200.9100.750.9000000000
Natural gas4482500031%12%449138.5485714286988304.86857142860.3132587.23815.831381733795245.31428571430.00000940.00000290060.480.14811428570.40.850.89640.04438919970.01369723880.04555089970.01405570620.04943235930.01525341370.05378058050.0165951506
coal122950008%12%76864.9825817556192601629.64130808951.48311155.236435.03512880561893160.17191049910.0000170.00000143840.660.05584440620.80.850.24580.10647969530.00900953840.1154777840.00977089130.14554210080.01231471540.17922177680.015164445
CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000
CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000
CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000
total1452542700100%100%215.64509466442118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000544340.70280137690.34016393440.07877704070.0861567310.11081367270.1384357143
Preference Scenarios
GHGAir PollutionLandWaterFatalitiesJobsCF3% LCOE7% LCOE10% LCOE4% LCOE
Equal0.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.13Want land use in m^2/MW
Availability0.010.010.010.010.010.010.90.010.010.010.01land per installed capacity
Climate Change0.90.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.01say that offshore wind is a different type of land, provided sensitivity
Climate Change-economy0.450.020.020.020.020.020.020.450.450.450.45review all factors for installed capacity, not kWh output
Economic0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.90.90.90.9Jobs could change, look into all of them
Environmental0.230.230.230.230.030.030.030.030.030.030.03Decide if they should change or not
Jobs0.010.010.010.010.010.90.010.010.010.010.01Water use would change, be dependent.
Jobs-climate change-economy0.30.020.020.020.020.30.020.30.30.30.3Defined portfolio
Jobs-economy0.020.020.020.020.020.450.020.450.450.450.45Which vary with capaciy, which vary with energy
Socio-economic0.030.230.030.030.230.230.030.230.230.230.23Land use fixed by capacity
Jobs heavily based by capacity/building
Water use and emmisions based on energy output
Am I looking at these portfolios over a lifetime or just one year?
just one year, not over an entire lifetime
Pick 3 or 4 interesting portfolios
Leave N at 30
C_CapD_pvCFC_o&mC_o&m,fC_o&m,vC_fuelHRThNDR 3%DR 4%DR 7%DR 10%CRF 3%CRF 4%CRF 7%CRF 10%C_o&m-totalLCOE - 3%Klein-3%error-3%LCOE - 4%LCOE - 7%Klein-7%error 7%LCOE - 10%Klein - 10%error 10%
Geothermal Binary473467%00.0161400039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.05-0.05000.07-0.0700.087-0.087
Hydro256254%0.37233333330.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.0094450730.06140591930.0270.03440591930.06834245670.09151874050.040.05151874050.1174820690.0510.066482069
Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128
Onshore Wind178383%0.17720.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01797277380.08299864470.0370.04599864470.09167930360.12068302750.0530.06768302750.15317456990.0660.0871745699
Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498
Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115
PV466983%0.22940.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01094775730.14247902670.144-0.00152097330.16003785490.21870522170.222-0.00329477830.28442758370.289-0.0045724163
Geothermal Flash337083%00.01890039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.036-0.036000.051-0.05100.063-0.063
Natural Gas103354%0.72830.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03606914690.04677987570.0440.00277987570.04820970940.05298705440.050.00298705440.0583388950.0540.004338895
Coal219454%0.01833333330.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.23499170211.13869152540.0481.09069152541.25933135471.66241184850.061.60241184852.11396445030.072.0439644503
CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208
CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266
CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224
C_CapD_pvCFC_o&mC_o&m,fC_o&m,vC_fuelHRThNDR 3%DR 4%DR 7%DR 10%CRF 3%CRF 4%CRF 7%CRF 10%C_o&m-totalLCOE - 3%Klein-3%error-3%LCOE - 4%LCOE - 7%Klein-7%error 7%LCOE - 10%Klein - 10%error 10%
Geothermal Binary473467%00.0161400039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.05-0.05000.07-0.0700.087-0.087
Hydro256254%0.48333333330.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.00789603210.04792380130.0270.02092380130.0532673270.07112105740.040.03112105740.09112177320.0510.0401217732
Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128
Onshore Wind178383%0.17733333330.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01796211760.08293909680.0370.04593909680.09161322890.12059514550.0530.06759514550.15306225820.0660.0870622582
Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498
Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115
PV466983%0.22933333330.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01095093980.14252044510.144-0.00147955490.16008437750.21876879880.222-0.00323120120.28451026620.289-0.0044897338
Geothermal Flash337083%00.01890039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.036-0.036000.051-0.05100.063-0.063
Natural Gas103354%0.66426666670.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.036265570.04800878120.0440.00400878120.04957644670.05481431350.050.00481431350.06068205570.0540.0066820557
Coal219454%0.0020.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%1.963924869410.24783991580.04810.199839915811.353705017815.04860954490.0614.988609544919.18784172790.0719.1178417279
CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208
CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266
CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224
C_CapD_pvCFC_o&mC_o&m,fC_o&m,vC_fuelHRThNDR 3%DR 4%DR 7%DR 10%CRF 3%CRF 4%CRF 7%CRF 10%C_o&m-totalLCOE - 3%Klein-3%error-3%LCOE - 4%LCOE - 7%Klein-7%error 7%LCOE - 10%Klein - 10%error 10%
Geothermal Binary473467%00.0161400039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.05-0.05000.07-0.0700.087-0.087
Hydro256254%0.21350.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01446307040.10508019030.0270.07808019030.1171771650.1575954460.040.1175954460.20287419370.0510.1518741937
Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128
Onshore Wind178383%0.16860.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.0186957030.08703843320.0370.05003843320.09616187780.12664503240.0530.07364503240.16079391330.0660.0947939133
Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498
Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115
PV466983%0.22930.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01095253170.14254116330.144-0.00145883670.1601076490.21880060120.222-0.00319939880.28455162540.289-0.0044483746
Geothermal Flash337083%00.01890039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.036-0.036000.051-0.05100.063-0.063
Natural Gas103354%0.89640.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03568703130.04438919970.0440.00038919970.04555089970.04943235930.05-0.00056764070.05378058050.054-0.0002194195
Coal219454%0.24580.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03907599280.10647969530.0480.05847969530.1154777840.14554210080.060.08554210080.17922177680.070.1092217768
CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208
CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266
CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224
Chart1
hydro
wind
nuclear
Solar PV
Natural gas
coal
Capacity
Portfolio 1 - Capacity by Source
0.0906590916
0.151098486
0.1236287812
0.151098486
0.302196972
0.1813181832
Information
All of the sustainability infromation is calculated in the Data sheet. The capacity factor was not taken into account on the par graphs on the right. This is due to the provided portfolios being reliable, which was the purpose of capacity factor in the origional model.INPUTSOUTPUTS
The only input values are the power output and capacity for each technology in sheets Portfolio 1-3The sustainability factors and graphs found in the Data and Contribution Charts sheets.
The Contribution Charts sheet contains the pie graphs for each chart, showing how each technology contributes to the installed capacity and the total energy output.
Sheets Portfolio 1-3 calculate the sustainability factors for each input Portfolio. The installed capacity and energy output are the only inputs. This will adjust the data in the Data sheet.
Preference Scenarios contains the same weights Klein and Whalley used for the sustainability factors. They are used to make the stacked graphs in the Data sheet.
LCOE - Portfolio 1-3 calculates the LCOE value for each portfolio using the capacity factors found in sheets Portfolio 1-3
Results
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 1237.5468088014767.9074757414354269.39002751516.28046740470.00000554750.58370917040.44223504880.06478026280.08660176290.10541629950.0698068809
Portfolio 2310.7365903656749.1696617697373532.0196226421359.83500649130.00000712640.56729074140.55226415090.05374489250.06803123830.08034895120.0570357755
Portfolio 3215.64509466442118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000544340.70280137690.34016393440.07877704070.11081367270.13843571430.086156731
min215.6450946644749.1696617697354269.39002751359.83500649130.00000544340.56729074140.34016393440.05374489250.06803123830.08034895120.0570357755
max310.73659036562118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000712640.70280137690.55226415090.07877704070.11081367270.13843571430.086156731
Normalized Life Cycle GHGNormalized Air PollutionNormalized Land UseNormalized Water UseNormalized FatalitiesNormalized JobsNormalized CFNormalized 3% LCOENormalized 7% LCOENormalized 10% LCOENormalized 4% LCOE
Portfolio 10.76967746720.986314405110.27563370160.93814479870.12115970810.51875997090.55915208860.56593109050.56844990170.5614462127
Portfolio 2010.952520579910001111
Portfolio 310001110000
Equal WeightLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.10005807070.12822087270.130.03583238120.12195882380.01575076210.06743879620.07268977150.07357104180.07389848720.0729880077
Portfolio 200.130.12382767540.130000.130.130.130.13
Portfolio 30.130000.130.130.130000
AvailabilityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.46688397380.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621
Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01
Portfolio 30.010000.010.010.90000
Climate ChangeLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.69270972050.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.00518759970.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621
Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01
Portfolio 30.90000.010.010.010000
Climate Change-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.34635486020.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.00242319420.01037519940.25161843990.25466899070.25580245580.2526507957
Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.450.450.450.45
Portfolio 30.450000.020.020.020000
EconomicLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.00518759970.50323687970.50933798140.51160491150.5053015914
Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.90.90.90.9
Portfolio 30.010000.010.010.010000
EnvironmentalLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.17702581750.22685231320.230.06339575140.0281443440.00363479120.01556279910.01677456270.01697793270.01705349710.0168433864
Portfolio 200.230.21907973340.230000.030.030.030.03
Portfolio 30.230000.030.030.030000
JobsLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.10904373730.00518759970.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621
Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01
Portfolio 30.010000.010.90.010000
Jobs-climate change-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.23090324020.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.03634791240.01037519940.16774562660.16977932710.17053497050.1684338638
Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.30.30.30.3
Portfolio 30.30000.020.30.020000
Jobs-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.01539354930.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.05452186870.01037519940.25161843990.25466899070.25580245580.2526507957
Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.450.450.450.45
Portfolio 30.020000.020.450.020000
Socio-economicLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Portfolio 10.0230903240.22685231320.030.0082690110.21577330370.02786673290.01556279910.12860498040.13016415080.13074347740.1291326289
Portfolio 200.230.02857561740.030000.230.230.230.23
Portfolio 30.030000.230.230.030000
Results
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Availability
Contribution Charts
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Equal Weight
Portfolio 1
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Climate Change
Portfolio 2
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Climate change-economy
Portfolio 3
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Economic
Preference Scenarios
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Environmental
LCOE - Portfolio 1
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Jobs
LCOE-Portfolio 2
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Jobs-climate change-economy
LCOE - Portfolio 3
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Jobs-economy
Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)
Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)
Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle
Water Cosumption (L/MWh)
Fatalities/GWh
Jobs (FTE/GWh)
LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate
Socio-economic
Energy ContributionPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Percentage of Installed CapaciyPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Capacity
% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contributionhydro0.0906590916
geothermal binary0%0%0%geothermal binary0%0%0%wind0.151098486
hydro8%10%15%hydro9%11%23%nuclear0.1236287812
offshore wind0%0%0%offshore wind0%0%0%Solar PV0.151098486
onshore wind6%4%12%onshore wind15%11%23%Natural gas0.302196972
nuclear28%14%19%nuclear12%8%6%coal0.1813181832
biopower0%0%0%biopower0%0%0%
PV8%5%16%PV15%11%23%Energy
Geothermal flash0%0%0%Geothermal flash0%0%0%hydro0.0763290966
Natural gas50%68%31%Natural gas30%57%12%wind0.0605439388
coal1%0%8%coal18%2%12%nuclear0.2795544622
CSP-MB0%0%0%CSP-MB0%0%0%Solar PV0.0783791171
CSP-TES0%0%0%CSP-TES0%0%0%Natural gas0.4976766434
CSP-FF0%0%0%CSP-FF0%0%0%coal0.0075167418
Portfolio 1-Energy Contribution
Portfolio 2-Energy Contribution
Portfolio 3-Energy Contribution
Portfolio 1 - Capacity Contribution
Portfolio 2 - Capacity Contribution
Portfolio 3 - Capacity Contribution
Portfolio 2 - Energy Contribution
Portfolio 2 - Capacity Contribution
Capacity
Portfolio 1 - Capacity by Source
Energy
Portfolio 1 - Energy by Source
New England Power Output (MW)New England Installed Capacity (MW)Energy Percentage ContributedPercentage of Total CapacityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)GHG ContributedAir pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Air Pollution ContributedLand use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleLand use (m^2/MW)Land Use ContributedWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Water Consumption ContributedFatalities/GWhFatalities ContributedJobs (FTE/GWh)Jobs ContributedCF Klein minCF-kleinCFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE - 3% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rateLCOE - 4% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE - 7% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE - 10% Contributed
geothermal binary000%0%6013105.4210682820174100.0000002101.2200.750.95000000000
hydro111730008%9%70.5343036764554.198100314325.012957682.6268140.8177450064491342.79397293970.00000580.00000044270.960.07327593280.450.870.37233333330.06140591930.00468705830.06834245670.0052165180.09151874050.00698554280.1174820690.0089673002
offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000
onshore wind88650006%15%110.6659833265965.81221812221.169379.210483.09207941740.260.01574142410.000000520.00000003150.330.01997949980.240.410.17720.08299864470.00502506490.09167930360.00555062610.12068302750.00730662580.15317456990.0092737918
nuclear4091409128%12%123.354653546521259.26554598880.1329039.43590.10562992962725761.78590952580.000000920.00000025720.470.13139059720.850.910.04314099440.01206025750.04663562090.01303719590.05831182920.01630133210.07139215020.0199579941
biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000
PV114750008%15%483.76219762279362.15463987970.8138316.245789.525852951231.80271969390.000000130.00000001021.470.11521730220.180.220.22940.14247902670.01116738030.16003785490.01254362580.21870522170.01714192220.28442758370.0222931829
Geothermal flash000%0%58013102.2143559104200.0000002200.9100.750.9000000000
Natural gas72831000050%30%449223.4568129015988491.70452371190.3132587.29847.7531655133795395.65293152930.00000940.00000467820.480.23888478880.40.850.72830.04677987570.02328125150.04820970940.02399284640.05298705440.02637041940.0583388950.0290339055
coal11060001%18%7685.772857728619260144.77244772451.48311155.256418.0955546825189314.22919229190.0000170.00000012780.660.00496104960.80.850.01833333331.13869152540.00855925021.25933135470.00946606871.66241184850.01249592072.11396445030.015890125
CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000
CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000
CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000
total1463433091100%100%237.5468088014767.9074757414354269.39002751516.28046740470.00000554750.58370917040.44223504880.06478026280.06980688090.08660176290.1054162995
Use 4% discount rate
Do sensitivity on this-see how it changes
Show 4% in graphs
competetive level is 5 cents
New England Power Output (MW)New England Installed Capacity (MW)Energy Percentage ContributedPercentage of Total CapacityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)GHG ContributedAir pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Air Pollution ContributedLand use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleLand use (m^2/MW)Land Use ContributedWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Water Consumption ContributedFatalities/GWhFatalities ContributedJobs (FTE/GWh)Jobs ContributedCF Klein minCF-kleinCFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE - 3% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rateLCOE - 4% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE - 7% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE - 10% Contributed
geothermal binary000%0%6013105.4210682820174100.0000002101.2200.750.95000000000
hydro1450300010%11%70.6935428767555.449265459525.012957682.6334831.992452834491444.95729415780.00000580.00000057460.960.09511445170.450.870.48333333330.04792380130.0047481730.0532673270.00527759650.07112105740.00704650040.09112177320.0090281224
offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000
onshore wind53230003.6%11%110.3998633413963.48971643321.169379.27854.24905660380.260.00945131530.000000520.00000001890.330.01199590020.240.410.17733333330.08293909680.00301493680.09161322890.0033302520.12059514550.00438377980.15306225820.0055639987
nuclear2000200014%8%121.639904338921228.97164332080.1329039.42191.65283018872725372.39494362830.000000920.00000012570.470.06422958660.850.910.04314099440.0058955920.04663562090.00637316310.05831182920.00796881850.07139215020.0097563581
biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000
PV68830005%11%482.256508370379337.27939870170.8138316.244337.6875471698231.08124359410.000000130.00000000611.470.06910556880.180.220.22933333330.14252044510.00669997040.16008437750.00752566120.21876879880.01028445050.28451026620.0133749958
Geothermal flash000%0%58013102.2143559104200.0000002200.9100.750.9000000000
Natural gas99641500068%57%449305.6942944995988672.66361462250.3132587.218445.5849056604795541.2627263410.00000940.00000639980.480.32680013670.40.850.66426666670.04800878120.03268599220.04957644670.03375331160.05481431350.03731942740.06068205570.0413143835
coal15000%2%7680.0524769388192601.3160232321.48311155.25870.852830188718930.12934745470.0000170.00000000120.660.00004509740.80.850.00210.24783991580.000700228211.35370501780.000775791315.04860954490.001028261719.18784172790.0013110927
CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000
CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000
CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000
total1463526500100%100%310.7365903656749.1696617697373532.0196226421359.83500649130.00000712640.56729074140.55226415090.05374489250.05703577550.06803123830.0803489512
New England Power Output (MW)New England Installed Capacity (MW)Energy Percentage ContributedPercentage of Total CapacityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)GHG ContributedAir pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Air Pollution ContributedLand use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleLand use (m^2/MW)Land Use ContributedWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Water Consumption ContributedFatalities/GWhFatalities ContributedJobs (FTE/GWh)Jobs ContributedCF Klein minCF-kleinCFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE - 3% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rateLCOE - 4% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE - 7% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE - 10% Contributed
geothermal binary000%0%6013105.4210682820174100.0000002101.2200.750.95000000000
hydro21351000015%23%71.0289156627558.084337349425.012957682.6692665.7142857144491660.12289156630.00000580.00000085250.960.14110843370.450.870.21350.10508019030.01544552190.1171771650.01722363150.1575954460.02316463180.20287419370.0298200622
offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000
onshore wind16861000012%23%111.27683304659611.14327022381.169379.216248.0562060890.260.03017969020.000000520.00000006040.330.03830499140.240.410.16860.08703843320.01010304980.09616187780.01116206030.12664503240.01470041480.16079391330.0186642711
nuclear2700270019%6%122.23063683321239.40791738380.1329039.41836.21498829042725506.54044750430.000000920.0000001710.470.08736660930.850.910.04314099440.00801932430.04663562090.00866892780.05831182920.01083937620.07139215020.01327083
biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000
PV22931000016%23%487.577555938793125.18753872630.8138316.248973.3583138173233.63091222030.000000130.00000002051.470.23206265060.180.220.22930.14254116330.02250236750.1601076490.02527551390.21880060120.03454112070.28455162540.0449209554
Geothermal flash000%0%58013102.2143559104200.0000002200.9100.750.9000000000
Natural gas4482500031%12%449138.5485714286988304.86857142860.3132587.23815.831381733795245.31428571430.00000940.00000290060.480.14811428570.40.850.89640.04438919970.01369723880.04555089970.01405570620.04943235930.01525341370.05378058050.0165951506
coal122950008%12%76864.9825817556192601629.64130808951.48311155.236435.03512880561893160.17191049910.0000170.00000143840.660.05584440620.80.850.24580.10647969530.00900953840.1154777840.00977089130.14554210080.01231471540.17922177680.015164445
CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000
CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000
CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000
total1452542700100%100%215.64509466442118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000544340.70280137690.34016393440.07877704070.0861567310.11081367270.1384357143
Preference Scenarios
GHGAir PollutionLandWaterFatalitiesJobsCF3% LCOE7% LCOE10% LCOE4% LCOE
Equal0.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.13Want land use in m^2/MW
Availability0.010.010.010.010.010.010.90.010.010.010.01land per installed capacity
Climate Change0.90.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.01say that offshore wind is a different type of land, provided sensitivity
Climate Change-economy0.450.020.020.020.020.020.020.450.450.450.45review all factors for installed capacity, not kWh output
Economic0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.90.90.90.9Jobs could change, look into all of them
Environmental0.230.230.230.230.030.030.030.030.030.030.03Decide if they should change or not
Jobs0.010.010.010.010.010.90.010.010.010.010.01Water use would change, be dependent.
Jobs-climate change-economy0.30.020.020.020.020.30.020.30.30.30.3Defined portfolio
Jobs-economy0.020.020.020.020.020.450.020.450.450.450.45Which vary with capaciy, which vary with energy
Socio-economic0.030.230.030.030.230.230.030.230.230.230.23Land use fixed by capacity
Jobs heavily based by capacity/building
Water use and emmisions based on energy output
Am I looking at these portfolios over a lifetime or just one year?
just one year, not over an entire lifetime
Pick 3 or 4 interesting portfolios
Leave N at 30
C_CapD_pvCFC_o&mC_o&m,fC_o&m,vC_fuelHRThNDR 3%DR 4%DR 7%DR 10%CRF 3%CRF 4%CRF 7%CRF 10%C_o&m-totalLCOE - 3%Klein-3%error-3%LCOE - 4%LCOE - 7%Klein-7%error 7%LCOE - 10%Klein - 10%error 10%
Geothermal Binary473467%00.0161400039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.05-0.05000.07-0.0700.087-0.087
Hydro256254%0.37233333330.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.0094450730.06140591930.0270.03440591930.06834245670.09151874050.040.05151874050.1174820690.0510.066482069
Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128
Onshore Wind178383%0.17720.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01797277380.08299864470.0370.04599864470.09167930360.12068302750.0530.06768302750.15317456990.0660.0871745699
Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498
Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115
PV466983%0.22940.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01094775730.14247902670.144-0.00152097330.16003785490.21870522170.222-0.00329477830.28442758370.289-0.0045724163
Geothermal Flash337083%00.01890039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.036-0.036000.051-0.05100.063-0.063
Natural Gas103354%0.72830.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03606914690.04677987570.0440.00277987570.04820970940.05298705440.050.00298705440.0583388950.0540.004338895
Coal219454%0.01833333330.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.23499170211.13869152540.0481.09069152541.25933135471.66241184850.061.60241184852.11396445030.072.0439644503
CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208
CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266
CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224
C_CapD_pvCFC_o&mC_o&m,fC_o&m,vC_fuelHRThNDR 3%DR 4%DR 7%DR 10%CRF 3%CRF 4%CRF 7%CRF 10%C_o&m-totalLCOE - 3%Klein-3%error-3%LCOE - 4%LCOE - 7%Klein-7%error 7%LCOE - 10%Klein - 10%error 10%
Geothermal Binary473467%00.0161400039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.05-0.05000.07-0.0700.087-0.087
Hydro256254%0.48333333330.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.00789603210.04792380130.0270.02092380130.0532673270.07112105740.040.03112105740.09112177320.0510.0401217732
Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128
Onshore Wind178383%0.17733333330.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01796211760.08293909680.0370.04593909680.09161322890.12059514550.0530.06759514550.15306225820.0660.0870622582
Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498
Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115
PV466983%0.22933333330.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01095093980.14252044510.144-0.00147955490.16008437750.21876879880.222-0.00323120120.28451026620.289-0.0044897338
Geothermal Flash337083%00.01890039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.036-0.036000.051-0.05100.063-0.063
Natural Gas103354%0.66426666670.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.036265570.04800878120.0440.00400878120.04957644670.05481431350.050.00481431350.06068205570.0540.0066820557
Coal219454%0.0020.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%1.963924869410.24783991580.04810.199839915811.353705017815.04860954490.0614.988609544919.18784172790.0719.1178417279
CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208
CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266
CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224
C_CapD_pvCFC_o&mC_o&m,fC_o&m,vC_fuelHRThNDR 3%DR 4%DR 7%DR 10%CRF 3%CRF 4%CRF 7%CRF 10%C_o&m-totalLCOE - 3%Klein-3%error-3%LCOE - 4%LCOE - 7%Klein-7%error 7%LCOE - 10%Klein - 10%error 10%
Geothermal Binary473467%00.0161400039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.05-0.05000.07-0.0700.087-0.087
Hydro256254%0.21350.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01446307040.10508019030.0270.07808019030.1171771650.1575954460.040.1175954460.20287419370.0510.1518741937
Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128
Onshore Wind178383%0.16860.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.0186957030.08703843320.0370.05003843320.09616187780.12664503240.0530.07364503240.16079391330.0660.0947939133
Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498
Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115
PV466983%0.22930.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01095253170.14254116330.144-0.00145883670.1601076490.21880060120.222-0.00319939880.28455162540.289-0.0044483746
Geothermal Flash337083%00.01890039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.036-0.036000.051-0.05100.063-0.063
Natural Gas103354%0.89640.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03568703130.04438919970.0440.00038919970.04555089970.04943235930.05-0.00056764070.05378058050.054-0.0002194195
Coal219454%0.24580.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03907599280.10647969530.0480.05847969530.1154777840.14554210080.060.08554210080.17922177680.070.1092217768
CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208
CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266
CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224
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27
Electricity Generated in Mexico 2050
Development Pathways for Mexico's Electrical Grid
Source: J. Veysey, C. Octaviano, “Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis,” Energy Econ.
Electricity Generated in Mexico MWh 2050
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28Mechanical & Industrial Engineering [email protected]
UMass IGERTEngineering Offshore Wind Energy Systems
Zana Cranmer• Developing cohesive set of
models to understand the interactions of economic and environmental value of offshore wind development
• Facilitating decision making across multiple objectives, scales, and stakeholders
Advisor: Erin Baker
Repurposing models traditionally used in business applications for public benefit
-
• 9 fellows• Department of
Environmental Conservation
© birdnote.org © wcfn.org
© National Geographic
Environmental Issues of Offshore Wind Energy UMass IGERT
-
UMass IGERTEnvironmental Conservation
Understanding how power transmission cables may effect electro-sensitive fishes (sharks, rays)
Lemon Shark
Kate McClellan PressAdvisor: Andy Danylchuk
Analyzing behavioral responses of sharks and rays to electric fields in the lab and in their natural environment.
Ampullae of Lorenzini (pores)
-
UMass IGERTEnvironmental Conservation
Understanding and minimizing effects ofwind development on migratorysongbirds and breeding marine birds
Flight behavior – hazard exposureMigratory routes Colony attendance – Spatial Planning Tool
© T. Duclos © T. Duclos
Jen SmetzerAdvisor: David King
-
UMass IGERTEnvironmental Conservation
Roseate Tern & Piping Plover Tracking
100 piping plovers in MA and RI 60 Common and 60 Roseate terns in NY and MA
Pam LoringAdvisors: Paul Sievert
Curtice GriffinModeling bird movements across southern
New EnglandQuantifying exposure to Wind Energy AreasExamining environmental drivers
-
Developing a spatially-explicit, individual-based movement modelto simulate flight patterns and habitat utilization
UMass IGERTEnvironmental Conservation
Blake MasseyAdvisors: Curt Griffin
Kevin McGarigalUsing GPS telemetry data and GIS data layers toanalyze eagle habitat use and behavioral patterns
-
UMass IGERTEnvironmental Conservation
Minimizing effects of wind development onmigratory bats and rare WNS-affected batspecies in the Northeast
Zara DowlingAdvisors: Paul Sievert
Betsy Dumont
Fall migration of hoary and eastern red batsGreatest risk in NortheastKnow very little about their migratory routes or habits
Summer foraging and fall migration of northern long-eared batFederally threatened
-
UMass IGERTEnvironmental Conservation
Overcoming data deficiencies in environmental permitting ofoffshore wind energy in the United States
- Marine Spatial Planning- Habitat Modeling- Regulatory Acceptance
Kendra RyanAdvisor: Adrian Jordaan
First US offshore wind energy project, located in state waters managed by one of the first marine spatial plans in the US.
Habitat model of North Atlantic right whale presence in proximity to wind energy areas.
-
UMass IGERT
• 4 fellows• 4 departments
Politics & Human Dimensions of Offshore Wind Energy
-
UMass IGERTPolicy
Understanding how people conceptualize offshore windprojects
Studying how we can best communicate project information tocommunities
Rebecca SokoloskiAdvisor: Ezra Markowitz
-
UMass IGERTPolicy
Developing public-private partnerships to address cumulativeadverse effects
- Environmental uncertainty- Proprietary data- Regulatory uncertainty
Wing GoodaleAdvisor: Anita Milman
-
UMass IGERTPolicy
• Politics of energy transitions: does the adoption of renewable energy result in a more democratic energy regime?
Small household turbine on Samsoisland
Collective-built Tvind turbine
Robert Darrow
• Investigating how Denmark has transitioned from an electric system almost entirely reliant on fossil fuels to the world's leading renewable energy producer per capita in less than 40 years
Advisor: Jane Fountain
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40Mechanical & Industrial Engineering [email protected]
UMass IGERT
UMass IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy Engineering,
Environmental Science, and Policy Program
Jen Smetzer & Zana Cranmer
Jen Smetzer & Acadia Engineer in Nova Scotia
Pam Loring & UMass Antenna Engineer
Zara Dowling & Dan Carlson
Blake Massey & Willian La Cava
Walt Jaslenek & Carson Pete
Zana Cranmer & School of Public Policy
Interdisciplinary Collaborations
Engineering Environmental ConservationPolicy
-
IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy Engineering, Environmental Science,
and Policy
Our goal is to create a community of researchers who understand the technological challenges, environmental implications, socioeconomic, and regulatory hurdles of offshore wind farms.
Thank you!
The Future of Wind Energy: Work From The UMass IGERTExpert elicitation survey on future wind energy costsExpert ElicitationSummary of key resultsSummary of key resultsSummary of key resultsSummary of key resultsSlide Number 9Significant uncertainty around cost reductions for floating offshoreHistorical and forecast experience curves for onshore wind Forecast experience curves for offshore windSlide Number 14ConclusionsSlide Number 16A diverse group of PhD students interested in Wind EnergyIGERT Fellows, Associates, and Alumni �2015-2016Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Development Pathways for Mexico's Electrical GridSlide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy Engineering, Environmental Science, and Policy