the honorable kevin j. mcintyre general session: … · krista johnson, director, u.s. federal...
TRANSCRIPT
THE HONORABLE KEVIN J. MCINTYRE GENERAL SESSION: CLIMATE CHANGE:
WHAT SHOULD WE DO NOW? MAY 6, 2019, 9:15 AM – 10:30 AM
Many recent reports say we are facing a crisis and many argue it is critical to act now Do Federal laws or the Green New Deal have a shot? Which ones? Which states have the most promising initiatives? What pricing approaches (e.g., carbon taxes) make sense? Can we or should we regulate away from what many say is a precipice (e.g., RPS, CAFE, EEPS, DR)? How about individual company commitments and technological advancement – are they critical? Bottom line - can we afford it all, or can we afford just to take partial measures? Come prepared to engage on these issues.
Moderator: Steven Mufson, Reporter, Washington Post
Panelists:
Krista Johnson, Director, U.S. Federal Government Relations, Shell Oil Company Dr. Virginia Burkett, Chief Scientist for Climate and Land Use Change for the United States Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Department of the Interior Dr. Karl Hausker, Senior Fellow, Climate Program, World Resources Institute Rich Powell, Executive Director, ClearPath
Additional Resources:
Volume 1 of the National Climate Assessment (Climate Science Special Report)
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/
Volume II of the National Climate Assessment (Impacts, Risks and Adaptation in the United States)
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
CLIMATE CHALLENGES AND BRIDGING DIVIDES
KARL HAUSKER, PH.D. MAY 2019SENIOR FELLOW
1.5ºC PATHWAYS REQUIRE NET-ZERO BY MID-CENTURY
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/
Net Zero Emissions
Illustrative pathways: P1, P2, P3, P4
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
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THE RENEWABLES REVOLUTION
Lazard’s LCOE Analysis, v.12.0, Nov. 2018, https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2018/
Dramatic cost decreases in wind and solar PV over the past 10 yearsWind: 3 – 6 cents/kWh. Solar PV: 4 – 5 cents/kWh (Utility-Scale).
Wind69%
Solar88%
2.9-5.6 ¢/kWh 4.0-4.6
¢/kWh
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EMBRACING 100% RENEWABLES
1.5ºC PATHWAYS INDICATE RENEWABLE SHARE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION OF 63-81 PERCENT
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/
Net Zero Emissions
%Renewable of elec. gen.: P1 – 77%P2 – 81%P3 – 63%P4 – 70%
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
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“SYSTEM LCOE” INCREASES AT HIGH %REILLUSTRATIVE SYSTEM WITH WIND, SOLAR, AND STORAGE
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3015424
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See also: Hausker (2019), Betting on Climate Solutions, https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/paper/betting-climate-solutionsFrew et al (2016) , https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/Others/16-Frew-Energy.pdfSepulveda, N., Jenkins, J.D., et al. (2018), “The role of firm low-carbon resources in deep decarbonization of electric power systems,” Joule
EXAMPLES OF FEDERAL AND STATE GOALS:100% RENEWABLE VS 100% CLEAN (WITH RPS BOOST?)
• By 2035: Climate Solutions Act, H.R. 330, Rep. Lieu, 2019.
• Clean Energy Standard – Udall?
• By 2030: AOC-Markey Green New Deal Resolution, 2019.
• Clean Energy Standard –Smith/Lujan?
• By 2045: Hawaii, H.B. 623 (enacted), 2015.
• By 2050: Puerto Rico, P.S. 1121 (enacted), 2019.
• By 2040: Colorado, Governor’s proposal for 100% renewable electricity.
• By 2045: California S.B.100 (enacted), 2018.
• By 2045: New Mexico S.B. 489 (enacted), 2019.
• By 2045: Washington S.B. 5116 (enacted), 2019
• By 2050: Nevada S.B. 358• By 2040: New York, Governor’s Green
New Deal proposal, 2019.• By 2050: New Jersey, Governor’s E.O.
#28 on Energy Master Plan• By 2050: Campaign commitments
from governors in CT, IL, ME, MI, WI.
100% Renewable 100% Clean
Federal
State
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KEY MESSAGES• 100% renewables vs. 100% clean energy
• 100% RE for corporate/city/other buyers is OK – an incremental boost to demand for RE – but should evolve to 100% CE
• 100% RE requirement for a state or country poses challenges in terms of performance, reliability, cost.
• A broad portfolio of zero-carbon electricity options is valuable from cost and risk management perspectives:“spread your chips”.
• CCS for industry is an essential option• CCS for carbon dioxide removal is critical to meeting 1.5 or 2 degree
goals.• Importance of RD&D programs with a broad portfolio.• An expanded transmission system is critical in any scenario.• Role of existing nuclear plants• Global perspectives – food for thought…
• Nuclear power• CCS
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