the ikarus instruments d. martinsen, v. krey, p. markewitz, s. vögele

Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)

Forschungszentrum Jülichin der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft

D. Martinsen, V. Krey, P. Markewitz, S. Vögele

The IKARUS Instruments


Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE)Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH

52425 Jülich Germany




Level of Analysis Data Method Results National Economy

Development of Population Economy Energy policy

Input/Output model with a disaggregated energy sector

Input/Output-table with relational supply

Energy demand

Energy Economy

Development of Energy costs Energy demand Technology and

potentials

Optimization model Total balances of Energy carriers Emissions Costs

Sectors Sector specific information about

Policy Economy Technology and

potentials

Simulation models for Space heating Industry Transport

Sector balances of Energy carriers Emissions Costs

BATABASE

IKARUS Instruments




Import of Other Oils

Primary production

Import of Coals

Import of Nuc. Fuels

Energy Conversion and Transport Final Consumption

Import of Crude Oil

REG-Sources

Coal-Extraction

Import of Gas

ProductionIndustry

Non-Energy Consumpt.

Households

Transport Sector

SmallConsumer

CHPDecentral

Central CHP

Gas-Extraction

Power Plants

Transport/Distrtibution

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Electricity

District Heat

Coal

Crude Oil

Fuel Oils

Gasoline

Diesel & Kerosene



Housing Space

Number of Emploees

Freight- and Passenger Transport

Import of Electrity

Refinery

Demand

Demand for Raw Materials

Structure of the IKARUS Energy System




ST R U C T U R E

g , X

g i: Σ a ijX j = b i; Σ c jX j = M in

a , b , c

O ptim izer (M O P S)

R esu lts-p rocessing

P resen ta tion of resu lts

D A T A G en era l d ata D em an d , Im p ortp r ices B ou n d s T ech n ica l data (C osts, E m ission s,

E nergy carriers)

C a. 3000 V ariab les

C a . 2000 E q u ations

C a . 200000 data for po in ts in tim e: 2000 ,(2005),2010 , 2020 ,2030

M atrix - generator

U ser-ch an ges (L ogfile)

>j




Long Term Energy SupplyTime period 2 - 5 decades

Perfect foresight LP-Model MARKAL with IKARUS-Data

1 ............ Optimum ........... n

Time-step LP-Model IKARUS-Model Opt. Opt. Opt. Opt.

1 .......... i-1 i n

„Forecast “ or Projection. Interaction without Iteration. „Sudden“ Changes. Flexibility or „Lost opportunities“.

Heritage (Capacities)Corrections of data (z.B. load, η)

(Elasticities, Learning and Order of scale,...)

DynamicsMIS-Model




Relative Specific Space-heat Demand for old Single-Family-Houses

100

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100P

res

en

t

Wi1

Rf1

Wi2

Rf2

Wi1

Rf1

Wi1

Rf2

Wi2

Rf2

Wi1

OW

1

Wi1

OW

2

Wi1

OW

3

Wi2

OW

3

Wi1

OW

1R

f1

Wi1

OW

2R

f1

Wi1

OW

3R

f1

Wi1

OW

2R

f2

Wi2

OW

3R

f2

Wi1

OW

2R

f2B

t1

Wi1

OW

2R

f2B

t2

Wi2

OW

3R

f2B

t2

Wi3

OW

3R

f2B

t2

Sp

ac

e h

ea

t d

em

an

d

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Av

era

ge

an

nu

al c

ap

ac

ity

loa

d

Cat-1

Measures of Insulation

Cat-5

Cat-4

Cat-3

Cat-2

Wi = Window Rf = RoofOW = Outer wall Bt = Basement

Corresponding capacity loadof central heating system




Relevant numbers Annual changes in %/a

Unit

2000 2010 2020 2030 2000/10 2010/20 2020/30

Population Mio. 81 .99 81..50 80.34 77.98 -0.06 -0.14 -0.30

Number of households Mio. 37.5 38.5 38.80 38.10 0.26 0.08 -0.18

Persons per Household Number 2.19 2.12 2.07 2.05 -0.32 -0.22 -0.12

Apartments Mio. 36.82 39.64 41.60 43.08 0.74 0.48 0.35 Apartments per 1000 Households Number 982 1030 1072 1131 0.48 0.41 0.53

Total floor space Mio. m2 3116.5 3408.6 3637.1 3838.6 0.90 0.65 0.54

Floor space per Capita. m2 38.0 41.8 45.3 49.2 0.96 0.80 0.84

Size of single-family house m2 105.95 108.31 110.62 113.43 0.22 0.21 0.25

Size of multi-family house m2 65.94 66.45 66.88 67.35 0.08 0.06 0.07

Number of employed Mio. 37.54 37.34 37 34.92 -0.05 -0.09 -0.58

Gross domestic product 109 € (95) 1963.8 2366.7 2797.5 3189.6 1.88 1.69 1.32

GDP per Capita € 23951 29039 34821 40903 1.94 1.83 1.62

Value added industry 109 € 362.65 440.65 507.68 585.21 1.97 1.43 1.43

Demographic and overall Economic Data




Relevant numbers Annual changes in %/a Area

Unit 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000/10 2010/20 2020/30

Passenger traffic1) Billion Pkm 926 1025 1116 1190 1.01 0.85 0.65

Freight traffic Billion tkm 489 613 750 889 2.29 2.04 1.71

Demand of Passenger and Freight Traffic

1) without pedestrians and cyclists. Air traffic: Domestic concept




Prices in €/GJ (2000) Annual changes in %/a Energy carrier

2000 2010 2020 2030 2000/10 2010/20 2020/30

Hard coal 1.32 1.76 1.80 1.87 2.90 0.22 0.42

Crude oil 5.32 4.39 4.49 4.68 -1.9 0.23 0.42

Gazoline 7.06 6.28 6.51 6.79 -1.15 0.36 0.42

Diesel 6.95 5.45 5.61 5.85 -2.41 0.30 0.42

Domestic fuel oil 6.95 5.45 5.61 5.85 -2.41 0.30 0.42

Residual fuel oil 5.06 3.51 3.60 3.75 -3.58 0.23 0.42

Natural gas A 3.27 3.65 3.82 3.98 1.09 0.46 0.42

Natural gas B 4.11 4.56 4.77 4.97 1.04 0.46 0.42

In comparison with lignite 1.44 1.51 1.64 1.68 0.48 0.83 0.25

Future Prices for Imported Energy Carriers




Unit 2000 2010 2020 2030

Domestic hard coal PJ 1005 > 300 (-) (-)

Import of hard coal PJ 910 < 1800 < 2400 < 3000

> 800 > 800 > 800 Extraction of lignite PJ 1521

< 1600 <1500 < 1400

Domestic natural gas PJ 633 < 700 < 600 < 500

Imported natural gas A PJ 2683 < 4000 < 4000 < 4000

Imported natural gas B PJ < 4000 < 4000 < 4000

Wind power GW 5.9 > 12 > 12 > 12

Nuclear power plants GWnetto 22.2 18.3 7.8 0

Important Bounds concerning Energy Policy and Quantity Potentials




Energy Scenarios for Germany 2000 - 2030:

• Reference scenario

• CO2-scenarios:

1. „Innovation+Saving“Imposing various technical (measures of improvements) and economic guidelines in order to advance innovation and energy saving (for example by laws or subsidies)

1. „Reduction Scenario“Giving boundary conditions (CO2 constraint) only and leaving to the energy system to decide which options should be chosen to fulfill these conditions




Projection of Primary Energy in the Reference Scenario

14539

13887

12952

12257

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2000 2010 2020 2030

PJ

Lignite- 40%

Hard coal -10,-15,+4%

Oil- 7%

Gas+ 11%

Renewables+ 25%

Nuclear




CO2-Emissions in Germany

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mio

. t

Reference-scenario

Reduction-scenario

1990 - 2002 *

*Temperature corrected values

-15%-19%

- 21%- 21%

- 23%

- 40%

- 31%

190 Mio. t

0

Innovation+Saving




Savings* of final energy in the scenario "Innovation+Saving"

69 156 192177

139215

285

495

633269

590

609

1649-18%*

1381-15%*

799- 8%*

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000 2010 2020 2030

PJ

Transport

Household

Small consumers

Industry

* Compared to reference scenario




CO2-Reduction* in the Reduction scenario

190 Mio. t- 23,9%

108 Mio. t- 13,5%

44 Mio. t- 5,4%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2000 2010 2020 2030

Mio

. t

Industry: -12,3% 12 Mio t


- 23% - 40%- 31% as compared to 1990

Conversion: - 41,9% 135 Mio t (Incl. Power-and heat station: 124 Mio t)

Small consumer: -17,8% 9 Mio t

Household: -21,9% 22 Mio t

Transport: -5,5% 12 Mio t

71%

75%

65%

11%

15%

20%

Share:




Costs of CO2-Reduction in the Reduction Scenario

19.2

25.8

32.5

0.8

6.2

2.8

+10.2

+4.6

+1.5

- 4.0

- 1.8- 0.7

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2010 2020 2030

Av

era

ge

co

sts

€/t

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

An

nu

al a

dd

itio

na

l co

sts

109 €

/a

Technical changes

Saving of primary energy

Cumulated additional costs 98 Billion Euro




Demand of Space Heat in Household, old Buildings 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

PJ

Total savingincludingLost potentialfor "Sudden"

District heat

Renewables

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal

Reference scenario

Suddenconstraint

Smoothconstraint

MaximumSaving

CO2-ConstraintScenarios

- 38%

- 10%




Capacity and Load of Power Plants

Price jump of oil+gas after 2020

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2000 2010 2020 2030

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Capacity lignite Capacity hard coal

Capacity gas

MWAnnualLoad

Price increase of oil+gas 2000 - 2030

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2000 2010 2020 2030

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Load lignite Load hard coal

Load gas

MWAnnualLoad




ElectricityNatural GasOil + Products

F

D

NL

B

L

DK

PL

CZ SK

A H

SLO

CH

I

EP

UKIRL

Energy-related Infrastructure in Western and Central Europe




End of Presentation




Additional Slides




Costs of CO2-Reduction in the Year 2030

1.12.3

6.2

16.5

37.5

10.316.8

32.5

68.5

129.0

0

1020

3040

5060

7080

90100

110120

130140

150

- 31% - 35% - 40% - 45% - 50%

Reduction compared to 1990

Av

era

ge

co

sts

€/t

0

10

20

30

40

50

An

nu

al a

dd

. co

sts

109 €

/a

Shp: 20

Shp: 630

Shp: 95 L




Electricity Production

537 536 531 524 517 526 517

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

TWh

Industry

CHPS

Others

PV

Wind

Hydro

Nat.gas

Oil

Hard coal

Lignite

Nuclear

Base load

22%

39%

18%

2000 2010 2020 20302000 2010 2020 2030

Reference Reduction




Products (Mill. ton) Annual changes in %/a Product

2000 2010 2020 2030 2000/10 2010/20 2020/30

Cement 36.05 35.05 34.55 33.53 -0.28 -0.14 -0.30

Lime 7.26 6.90 6.50 6.00 -0.51 -0.60 -0.80

Brick 17.00 16.90 16.00 15.60 -0.06 -0.55 -0.25

Glass 6.61 6.78 6.90 6.95 0.26 0.18 0.07

Sugar 4.30 4.50 4.58 4.45 0.45 0.18 -0.30

Rolled steel 38.97 36.10 35.90 34.80 -0.76 -0.06 -0.31

Crude steel 30.85 26.23 23.25 20.46 -1.61 -1.20 -1.27

Electric steel 13.32 14.69 17.03 18.60 0.98 1.49 0.88

Aluminium 0.64 0.65 0.20 0.00 0.09 -11.12 -100.00

Development of some Industrial Products




Primary Energy 200214320 PJ

Hard coal13%

Lignite12%

Oil36%

Gas22%

Nuclear13%

Hydro/Wind1%

Others3%




Final Energy 2000 in PJ

26.1% 25.2%

16.1% 16.5%

28.1% 30.2%

29.7%28.1%

97759243

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Actual Corrected

Traffic

Residence

Small consumer

Industry




Primary Energy 2000 in PJ

14.0% 13.8%

10.8% 10.8%

38.2% 37.2%

21.1% 22.3%

12.9% 12.8%

3.0% 3.1%14354 14650

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Actual Corrected

Renew./Others

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Lignite

Hard coal

Final Energy 2000 in PJ

5.4%5.3%

43.8%44.4%

26.8%25.8%

19.9%

18.7%

3.9%

3.6%

2.1%

2.2%

9775

9243

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Actual Corrected

Others

District heat

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Coal




CO2 Emissions in Germany 2002834 million tons

Conversion40%

Industry17%

Small consumer

6%

Residence14%

Traffic23%

Hard coal19%

Lignite22%

Oil37%

Gas22%

Others < 1%




984

950

902 892876 873

897865 857

829 831847

834

1010

918

893 896

869 866

848856 853 851

945

870877

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Actual values

Temperature corrected

Trend

Government target

Target 2005: 758 Mio. t (-25%)

Trend 2005: 850 Mio. t (-16%)

- 65 Mio.t

- 17 Mio.t/y

- 4 Mio.t/y

- 93 Mio.t = - 31 Mio.t/y

- 1 Mio.t/y

CO2 Emissions in Germany 1990 - 2002




Fuel Consumptin for Cars Long-distance Passenger Traffic

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

L/1

00km Gazoline

Gazoline-Saving

Diesel

Diesel-Saving

H2-Fuel Cell *

-23%

- 1,3L-22%

* Gasoline equivalent




Specific Investment Costs for PV und WP

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Eu

ro/k

W

PV

WP

2 kW

500 kW100 kW20 kW

1 MW onshore4,5 - 5,5 m/s

2 MW offshore8 - 9 m/s

- 45%

5000 - 7000

- 17- 30%1300 - 1900




Reference Scenario




Projection of CO2-Emissions in the Reference Scenario

796801822

864

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0

2000 2010 2020 2030

Mio

. t

Conversion -11,-12,- 5%

Industry- 28%

Household- 33%

Small cons.- 19%

Transport+ 14%

- 42 ( -4,9%)- 63 ( -7,3%) - 68 (- 7,9%)

- 14,5% - 18,6% - 20,7% - 21,2%

1990: 1010 Mio. t*

Projection of Primary Energy in the Reference Scenario

14539

13887

12952

12257

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2000 2010 2020 2030

PJ

Lignite- 40%

Hard coal -10,-15,+4%

Oil- 7%

Gas+ 11%

Renewables+ 25%

Nuclear




Projection of Final Energy in the Reference Scenario

9547- 0,1%

9393- 1,7%

9176- 4,0%

9557

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2000 2010 2020 2030

PJ

Industry: Structural changes - 10,8%

Small cons.: Structural changes. Slight measures of insulation - 17,8%

Household: Incr. gas-heating.First measures of insulation for old buildings within renovation. - 7,6%

Transport: Increase PT und FT, decr. spec. fuel-consumption.Incr. share of public transport PT and FT-rail. + 14,2%

Coal- 40%

Oil- 9 %

Gas+12%

Electr+1%

2000 2030




Projection of Electricity Production in the Reference Scenario

537.2 536.3524.4 525.8 (- 2%)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030

TWh

Industry

CHP

Others

PV

Wind

Hydro

Gas

Oil

Hard coal

Lignite

Nuclear

+ 65%

- 18%

+324%

+152%

GL

Projection of Installed Net Capacityin the Reference Scenario

115.5 114.9

109.0 108.7 (- 6%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030

GW

Industry

CHP

Others

PV

Wind

Hydro

Gas

Oil

Hard coal

Lignite

Nuclear

27,9+ 12%

16,3- 18%

27,8+68%(CCP)

12 +100%

25

19,2

16,5

GL

CHP +37%

PV:1500MW




Projection of Final Energy Demand for the Residential Sectorin the Reference Scenario

2786

2824+ 1,4%

2741- 1,6% 2574

- 7,6%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2010 2020 2030

PJ

Coal products 0

Oil products - 52%

Gas + 15%

Electricity + 9%

Renewables - 37%

District heating +36%




Projection of Passenger Transportin the Reference Scenario

926

1190+ 28%1116

+ 20%1025

+ 11%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000 2010 2020 2030

10

9 Pkm

Airplane + 174%%

Railway + 129%

Bus + 134%

Car-Gasoline - 12%

Car-Diesel + 50%

+ 4

%

+ 3

%

+/-

0%

+ 3

6% + 8

8%

+14

1%

Projection of Freight Transportin the Reference Scenario

489

889+ 82%

750+ 53%

613+ 25%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2010 2020 2030

10

9 Tk

m

Airplane + 270%

Railway + 149%

Ship + 74%

Road (Truck) +68%




Scenario: „Innovation + Saving“

The most important changes compared to the reference scenario:

Power plants Efficiency improvement 2 – 3 points.

Industry Measures of energy saving for production and utilization of process heat and electricity.

Small consumer Thermal insulation of buildings within renovation.Measures for saving of process heat and use of electricity.

Household Thermal insulation of old buildings within renovation.Improved standard of space heat demand for new houses.More efficient use of electricity in new appliances.

Transport Vehicles with a clear reduction of fuel consumption. Share of public transport at the upper limit.




Primary Energy in the Scenario "Innovation+Saving"

13887

1295212257

14539

-16%

-12%

-7%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Nuclear

Renewables

Gas

Oil

Lignite

Hard coal

2000 203020202010

Ref. I+S

PJ




CO2-Emissions in the Scenario "Innovation+Saving"

801

692

796

654

864

- 66- 8,1%(- 25%) - 109

- 13,6%(- 31%)

- 142- 17,9%

(- 35% compared to 1990)

755822

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Mio. t

Transport

Household

Small Consumer

Industry

Conversion-50

-100

-150

-200

Em

iss

ion

sC

ha

ng

e

2000 203020202010

Basis Spar Diff.

ca. 85% KW ,HKW

x 4




Final Energy in the Scenario "Innovation+Saving"

9547 9393 91769557

-18%-15%

- 8%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

PJ

Industry heat

District heat

Renewables

Electricity

Gas

Oil products

Coal products

2000 203020202010

Ref. I+S




Reduction Scenario




Primary energy for the CO2-Reduction scenario

14539

12452 1225711234

1295213887 13641

- 1024- 8,4%

- 500- 3,9%

- 246- 1,8%

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

PJ

Hard coal Lignite

Oil Gas

Renewables Nuclear

- 500

- 1000

- 2500

- 2000

- 1500

* incl. Müll

x 4

500

1000

xxx

0

1500

DifferencePJ

2000 203020202010

Base CO2 Diff.




Share of Sectors to Saving* of Final Energy in the Reduction Scenario

33% 32%

29%4%

5%

19%

62%

63%

34%

18%

700- 7,6%

288- 3,1%

177- 1,9%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2010 2020 2030

PJ


Industry: Measures of energy saving for production and utilization of process heat and electricity. - 9,3%

Small consumer: Savings of Process heat and warm water, insulation of buildings, heat pump(12%), (biomass) - 9,7%

Houshold: Thermal insulation of old buildings within renovation. (-9%),gas condensing boiler, solar panel, heat pump, (biogas), efficient use of electricity for new appliances - 9,3%

Transport: Use of trucks with lower fuel consumption (and biodiesel). - 4,1%

Share




Electricity Production

537 536 531 524 517 526 517

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2000 2010 2020 2030

TWh

Industry

CHPS

Others

PV

Wind

Hydro

Nat.gas

Oil

Hard coal

Lignite

Nuclear

Base load

22%

39%

18%

2000 2010 2020 2030

Net installed capacity of power stations

116 115 115109

117

109

121

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030

GW

Industry

CHPS

Others

PV

Wind

Hydro

Nat.gas

Oil

Hard coal

Lignite

Nuclear

Base load

16,414%

39,132%

35,029%

Reduction Scenario




Costs of CO2-Reduction in the Reduction Scenario

- 4.0

- 1.8

- 0.7

0.8*109/a

2.8*109/a

6.2*109/a

+ 10.2

+ 4.6

+ 1.5

19.2 €/t

25.8 €/t

32.5 €/t

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2010 2020 2030

Ad

dit

ion

al c

os

ts 1

09 Eu

ro p

er

ye

ar

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Av

era

ge

co

sts

Eu

ro /

To

nn

e C

O2

Transport

Household

Small consumer

Industry

Conversion

Saving of primaryenergy

Cumulated additional costs: 98*109 Euro




Constraints on CO2-Emissions

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mio

. t

Reference-scenario

1990 - 2002 *

*Temperaturbereinigte Werte

-15%-19%

- 21%- 21%

- 23%

- 31%

0

- 40%

- 31%

- 35%

- 45%

- 50%

None (- 25%)




CO2-Reduction* in the Year 2030

103

139

190

240

291

9491%

12086%

13672%

15866%

17058%

19

54

82

121

9

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

- 31% - 35% - 40% - 45% - 50%

Reduction compared to 1990

Mio

. t

Electricity+CHP Rest of conversion

Indusry HouseholdSmall consumer Transport

43%

12%

34%

11%

2/3

* compared to reference scenario




Others




-29.1Mt

-24.7Mt

-15.1Mt

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Eq

uiv

alen

t o

f P

rim

ary

En

erg

y (P

J)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

CO

2 in

mill

ion

to

n

Bioethanol traffic

Rapeseed oil CHP

Rapeseed oil traffic

Biomass smallconsumerBiomass residence

Biomass industry

Biomass CHP

Biogas CHP

Biogas small consumer

Wind power

CO2-reduction

CO2-Reduction

Additional Use of Renewable Energy and corresponding CO2 Reduction




Saving of Space Heating for different Measures of Insulation in old Buildings

0102030405060708090

100110

Fe1 Fe2

Fe1Da1

Fe2Da1

Fe2Da2

Fe1Da1

Aw1

Fe1Da1

Aw1Kd1

Fe2Da2

Aw1

Fe3Da2

Aw1

Fe2Da2

Aw2

Fe3Da2

Aw2

Fe2Da2

Aw2Kd1

Fe2Da2

Aw2Kd2

Fe3Da2

Aw2Kd1

Fe3Da2

Aw2Kd2

Sav

ing

kW

h/m

2

* Angaben des Lehrstuhls für Energiewirtschaft und Kraftwerkstechnik, Technische Universität München

SFH 1995: 156 kWh/m2MFH 1995: 125 kWh/m2




Distribution of Measures for Insulation of Buildings (Old Houses 2020, Reduction Scenario)

38

12

1

10

31

2 24

2 20 0 0 0 1

31 00 0 0 0

11 12

4 3 31

2 2 35

0 0

14

29

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Standa

rd Fe2

Fe1Da1

Fe2Da1

Fe2Da2

Fe1Da1

Aw1

Fe1Da1

Aw1K

d1

Fe2DA2A

w1

Fe3Da2

Aw1

Fe2Da2

Aw2

Fe3Da2

Aw2

Fe2Da2

Aw2K

d1

Fe2Da2

Aw2K

d2

Fe3Da2

Aw2K

d1

Fe3Da2

Aw2K

d2

Fe2 a

.R.Z

.

Fe1Da1

a.R

.Z.

Fe2Da1

a.R

.Z.

Fe2Da2

a.R

.Z.

Sh

are

of

tota

l liv

ing

sp

ac

e in

%

SFH MFH




Fuzzy linear optimization means that one assumes fuzzy aspiration levels for each of the goals, the problem is then f.ex. transformed into a crisp "satisfaction model" by using membership functions for the constraints (equal to some "satisfaction" functions). The idea is then to maximize "total satisfaction", i.e. maximizing a minimum operator for all the membership functions. This normally give as a solution beeing some kind of a compromise, i.e total satisfaction < 1.

FUZZY LINEAR OPTIMIZATION

Conventional: Fuzzy:Min Z = Cx Cx<~zAx<=b Ax<~b (included some crisp <=)x>=0 x>=0




Membership-function fi (Satisfaction): (assuming linear)

1-((Bx)i-bi)/di

0 di (Bx)i

bi bi+di

1

Max Min fi((Bx)i) where Min-Operator = Intersection Set of fi

Max Min (1+bi’ – (B’x)i) ; bi’=bi/di Bi’=Bi/di

Assuming variable ß=common satisfaction:(Bx)i<=bi+(1-ß)di 0<ß<1

Crisp LP-Problem:Max ßßdi+(Bx)i<=bi+di

(Ex)j<=gj, i.e. dj=0




EXAMPLE: Refinery Least costs solution:

Costs = 1201Emissions = 830Gasoline = 40Emissions too high (prefer -100)Gasoline too low (prefer +2)Accept higher costs (max +100)

Fuzzy – solution as a compromise:

Costs = +38Emissions = -63Gasoline = +1.3(ß = 0.63)




Elektrizität

Wärme

Raffinerie

Gas

Kohleveredlung

Verkehr

Haushalte

Industrie

Kleinverbrauch

Personen-,Tonnenkilometer

Raumwärme

Prozesswärme

Kraft und Licht

Inland

Import

Export

Primär Umwandlung Verbrauchssektoren Nachfrage

Industriegüter

Struktur des gesamtenergiewirtschaftlichen ModellsKFA-STE




KFA-STE

DomesticMining

Productionof Energy

Import

Industry

Small-ScaleConsumers

Households

Transport

Primary Energy Final Energy Demand

NetProduction

(DM)

Process Heat

Space Heat

Per Capita

Light

Communication

Power

PassengerTransport

(km)

Transportof Goods

(km)

CoalConversion

Refinery

Power Plantsand Electricity

Distribution

CHP andDistrict HeatDistribution

GasDistribution

Har

d C

oal

Lig

nit

e C

oal

Oil

Nat

ura

l Gas

Nu

clea

rR

enew

able

s

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oal

Pro

du

cts

Lig

nit

e C

oal

Pro

d.

Fu

el O

ilD

iese

l Oil

Pet

rol

Pet

rol G

asM

eth

ano

l/Eth

ano

lD

isct

rict

Hea

tE

lect

rici

ty

€

the ikarus instruments d. martinsen, v. krey, p. markewitz, s. vögele

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