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The implementation of

Carbon Budget Model at EU level

Roberto Pilli, Giacomo Grassi, Nuria Guerrero, Giulia Fiorese

JRC technical workshop 20145-7 May 2014 Arona (Italy)

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Since 2010, JRC is working to develop an in-house model capacity to estimate the EU carbon budget at country level for each EU MS

After a preliminary analisis of the main models applied at international

level, the Carbon Budget Model (CBM) developed by the Canadian

Forest Service was selected as potential tool Between 2010 and 2012, the model was applied to a specific case

study in order: to test the CBM in different silvicultural systems, proposing a novel

approach to model the uneven-aged forest structure to apply the CBM to a European country and estimate the forest C

balance of the FM area to explore the impact on the C balance of different scenario

assumptions (i.e., harvest rates and disturbance events)

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• The model was applied to

• 26 EU countries

• Considering:

• FM area

• ARD• Fire & storms

• HWPs

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What is the Carbon Budget Model ?

It is an inventory-based, yield-data driven model, that simulates the

evolution of the C budget of forests, including the effect of natural

and human-induced disturbance events (Kurz et al., 2009)

NFI data

CBM Other data

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What the CBM need …

IMPORTANCE Input by NFI data ESSENTIAL REQUESTED USEFUL ADDITIONAL

ESSENTIAL Area Total Forest area By age classes By broadleaves/conifers and by regions

By main species and management types ( i.e. coppices/high forests)

ESSENTIAL Growing stock Volume per haat NUTS 1 level

By broadleaves/conifers By main species By age classes, regions and

MT

ESSENTIAL Increment Increment per ha at NUTS 1 level

By broadleaves/conifers

By main species and age classes By regions and MT

USEFUL Tot. abovegr. biomass By main species and

regions By age classes

USEFUL Natural disturbances Area/biomass affected by

natural disturbances By main species and regions

ADDITIONAL Silvicultural treatments By main species and MT

ADDITIONAL Harvest share By main species and regions

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What CBM provides …

C stock by

forest pools

CBMC stock change

Age class evolution

BYMain

species

Regions

Silv. systems

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CBM output: the C stock

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Aboveground BiomassMerchantable componentsOther wood componentsFoliages

T C

ha

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CBM output: the C stock change

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Delta BiomassDelta DOM

T C

ha-1

yr-

1

The age class evolution on even-aged forests

0 to 19 20 to 39 40 to 59 60 to 79 80 to 99 100 to 119

120 to 139

140 to 159

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000Age class distribution

Original NFI data

Age classes

Kha

Original NFI data

+ 5 years

Original NFI data

+ 5 years

+ 10 years

Original NFI data

+ 5 years

+ 10 years

+ 20 years

CBM output ...

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CBM output: the tree selection system on an uneven aged high forests

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

20 YEARS15 YEARS

YEARS

VO

LU

ME

(m3

ha-1

)

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What CBM provides …

C stock by

forest pools

C stock change

Age class evolution

FUTURE & PAST Estimates

BYMain

species

Regions

Silv. systems

CBM

Effect of Natural disturbances

Effect of Harvest

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CBM outputs … from the reference NFI year forward

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

-27,000

-24,000

-21,000

-18,000

-15,000

-12,000

-9,000

-6,000

-3,000

0

Forest C sink

Historical Country data Soil_Const DOM+Litter ConstBiomass_Const TOTAL

Gg

CO2

C stock change of each pool at country level, accounting for the effect of harvest

Harvest scenario

(m3

103)

NFI year

13

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

-27,000

-24,000

-21,000

-18,000

-15,000

-12,000

-9,000

-6,000

-3,000

0

3,000

Forest C sink

Historical Country data Soil DOM+Litter Biomass TOTAL

Gg

CO2

CBM outputs … from the reference NFI year backward

Comparing results with historical data !

Harvest scenario

(m3

103)

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1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

-27,000

-24,000

-21,000

-18,000

-15,000

-12,000

-9,000

-6,000

-3,000

0

3,000

Forest C sink

Historical Country data Soil DOM+Litter Biomass TOTAL

Gg

CO2

CBM outputs … including effect of natural disurbances

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What CBM provides …

C stock by

forest pools

C stock change

Age class evolution

FUTURE & PAST Estimates

BYMain

species

Regions

Silv. systems

CBM

Effect of Natural disturbances

Effect of Harvest

Link to HWPs

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CBM outputs: detailed accounting of each HWP pool

Forest C sink

HWP C sink

C stock changeforest biomass and HWPs

Gg

C y

r-1

0

100

200

300

400

500

HWPsForest biomass

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000Harvest demand by HWP pool

IRW_ConifersIRW_BroadleavesFW_ConifersFW_Broadleavesm

3 10

3

CBM

IPCC Tier 2 approach

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Thank you