the information in this document is proprietary to, and the property of sensis corporation. it may...
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The information in this document is proprietary to, and the property of Sensis Corporation. It may not be duplicated, used, or disclosed in whole or in part for any purpose without express written consent.
Probabilistic NAS Platform
George Hunter, Diego Escala
Sensis Corporation
January 27, 2010
2 Sensis Corporation Proprietary Data – See title page
Outline
PNP design overview and philosophy
Probabilistic modeling (George)
PNP software architecture (Diego)
3 Sensis Corporation Proprietary Data – See title page
Outline
PNP design overview and philosophy
Probabilistic modeling (George)
PNP software architecture (Diego)
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PNP Design Overview and Philosophy Requirements
•NextGen performance and benefits assessment Incorporate key aspects of NAS from the ground up
– Uncertainty, weather
•Design environment, including real-time evaluation
•1 hour run time (nominally), easy to use
Design•Don’t try to solve every problem
NAS has significant dynamic range
•Select modeling fidelity: 15 minute/sector discretization
Spatially: ~10s nmi
Temporally: 15 min
Tactical: CDR, etc. Strategic: TFM, DAC, FP, etc.
Implicit / nodal modeling Explicit modeling
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PNP Design Overview and PhilosophyDecouple simulation and decision making
Build a little – test a little•Continuous improvement
•Expandable architecture
Emphasis on testing, validation and process
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Real-time
Fast-time
Airport weather impact models
Airspace weather impact models
Weather-integrated decision making
Probabilistic modeling / decision making
Traffic flow management
Dynamic airspace configuration
Surface traffic modeling
Terminal area modeling
Super density operations
Fuel burn modeling
Emissions modeling
Trajectory-based operations
Separation assurance
Plug-n-play
Fast run-time
Capabilities SummaryExisting Can Support
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7 Sensis Corporation Proprietary Data – See title page
Outline
PNP design overview and philosophy
Probabilistic modeling (George)
PNP software architecture (Diego)
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Probabilistic Modeling
Example uncertainties•System capacity and loading forecasts
•Airports and sectors
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Forecasted Airport CapacityIllustration of our approach
Step 1 TAF
Step 2Mean and Sigma
for Ceiling, Visibility and Wind
Speed
Step 3
Mean and sigma:
Ceiling
Visibility
Wind Speed
Forecasts:
Ceiling
Visibility
Wind Speed
Forecasts for Ceiling, Visibility and Wind Speed
Distributions for Ceiling, Visibility and Wind Speed
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Forecasted Airport CapacityIllustration of our approach
Step 1 TAF
Step 2Mean and Sigma
for Ceiling, Visibility and Wind
Speed
Step 3
Mean and sigma:
Ceiling
Visibility
Wind Speed
Forecasts:
Ceiling
Visibility
Wind Speed
Forecasts for Ceiling, Visibility and Wind Speed
Distributions for Ceiling, Visibility and Wind Speed
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Forecasted Airport Capacity
Step 4
Model
Step 5
Step 6
Arrivals / hour
Dep
artu
res
/ hou
r
VFR
IFR
VFR Cap Dist
IFR Cap Dist
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Forecasted Airport Capacity
Airport capacity distribution that takes into account ceiling, visibility and wind speed forecasts
Step 7
13 Sensis Corporation Proprietary Data – See title page
Outline
PNP design overview and philosophy
Probabilistic modeling (George)
PNP software architecture (Diego)
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PNP Software Overview
Client-server architecture
Predictive modeling
Two runtime modes•Fast-time (simulation)
•Real-time (live)
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Fast-time Mode
Archived Wx/Tx DataPNP
Client 1
Client 2
Client n
Local Network
Static NAS Data
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Live (Real-time) Mode
Client 1
Client 2
Client n
Local Network Internet
Wx/TxData Server
PNP
Static NAS Data
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Probabilistic NAS Platform (PNP)
Weather Data
Reports
Network
MATLAB®
ScriptingInterface
NASDatabase
MATLAB® Client
External Client(Any Language)
ClientAs Middleware
Java Client
Decis
ion
makin
gN
AS
Sim
ula
tion
Performance Data
Flight Data
Graphical User InterfacePlan View Display
PNP Architecture
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Probabilistic NAS Platform (PNP)
Weather Data
Reports
Network
MATLAB®
ScriptingInterface
NASDatabase
Decis
ion
makin
gN
AS
Sim
ula
tion
Performance Data
Flight Data
Graphical User InterfacePlan View Display
PNP Architecture
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PNP Communications Basics
Subscription model•Clients can specify which messages they need, and at what
interval they need each
Serialized Java objects sent over TCP/IP
Compression supported
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Advance simulation
time
Send messages for
interval
Send heartbeat to
clients
Wait for client responses
PNP Communications Cycle
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Step 1: Register with
PNP
Step 2: Request Data
Updates
Step 3: Handle Data
Updates
Client-Server Communications
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Registering with PNP
public MyPnpClient(){
// Connect to the PNP server on the local computer.// buildReceiveRequests() specifies message
subscriptionsm_Client = new ObjectClientMessageManager(“localhost”,buildReceiveRequests());
}
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Subscribing to Messagesprivate ArrayList<MessageReceiveRequest> buildReceiveRequests(){
ArrayList<MessageReceiveRequest> requests = newArrayList<MessageReceiveRequests>();
// Add a request to receive PnpFlightDetails every 15 minutesrequests.add(new MessageReceiveRequest(PnpFlightDetails.class,
15));
// Add a request to receive AirportLoading every 15 minutesrequests.add(new MessageReceiveRequest(AirportConditions.class,
15));
// Add a request to receive SectorLoading every 15 minutesrequests.add(new MessageReceiveRequest(TerminalConditions.class,
15));
return requests;}
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Responding to PNP
BatchResponse response = newBatchResponse(1,
aoc.getDelayMap(), aoc.getRerouteMap(),
aoc.getInflightRerouteMap());
m_Client.send(response);
[AOC Example]
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Data TranslationNAS Data
• Wx radar• Winds/temps• METAR/TAF• Turbulence• Icing• Flight plans• Flight positions• Sector def’ns• Airport capacities
Client-usable data
• Wx-degraded sector capacities
• Sector capacity forecasts
• Sector loading• Sector loading
forecasts• Airport capacity
distribution based on wx
• Airport conditions• Flight trajectories
26 Sensis Corporation Proprietary Data – See title page
Data TranslationNAS Data
• Wx radar• Winds/temps• METAR/TAF• Turbulence• Icing• Flight plans• Flight positions• Sector def’ns• Airport capacities
Client-usable data
• Wx-degraded sector capacities
• Sector capacity forecasts
• Sector loading• Sector loading
forecasts• Airport capacity
distribution based on wx
• Airport conditions• Flight trajectories
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Data Available from PNP Server
Flight Data• Flight Trajectory (1-
min)
• Current Position
• Sector Schedule
NAS Data• Airport Congestion
• Airport Loading
• Operations per airport
Airspace Data• Sector Boundaries
• Sector Congestion
Weather Data• Forecasts
• Weather-related Congestion
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Programmable Client Functionality
Flight Plan Amendments•Delay flights
•Reroute flights While at gate or in-flight
Airspace Modification / Definition•Number of sectors
•Sector boundaries
•Sector capacities
•Airport capacities
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Uncertainty Modeling Process in ProbTFM
PNP
Implement reroutes and delays
ProbTFM
Compute sector capacity distributions
Compute congestion costs for current departures based on sector loading, capacity
Compute delays and reroutes for flights that
exceed congestion thresholdSend delays to PNP
PNP
Send sector loading for a/c enroute
Send expected sector loading for a/c at gate
Send wx-degraded sector capacities
Send airport capacity distributions
Send departures for current interval
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1. George Hunter, "Meta Simulation Results for Simultaneous Dynamic Resectorization and Traffic Flow Management," AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Orlando, FL, October, 2009.
2. George Hunter, Robert A. Vivona, Carlos Garcia-Avello, "Preliminary Evaluation of Trajectory Prediction Impact on Decision Support Automation," AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Orlando, FL, October, 2009.
3. Huina Gao, George Hunter, "Future NAS-Wide User Gaming Preliminary Investigation," AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Orlando, FL, October, 2009.
4. George Hunter, "Testing and Validation of NextGen Simulators," AIAA Modeling and Simulation Conference, Chicago, IL, August 2009.5. George Hunter, "Preliminary Assessment of Interactions Between Traffic Flow Management and Dynamic Airspace Configuration Capabilities," AIAA
Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), St. Paul, MN, October, 2008.6. George Hunter, et. al., "Toward an Economic Model to Incentivize Voluntary Optimization of NAS Traffic Flow," AIAA ATIO Conference, Anchorage,
AK, September, 2008.7. George Hunter, "Sensitivity of the National Airspace System Performance to Weather Forecast Accuracy," Integrated Communications, Navigation and
Surveillance Conference (ICNS), Herndon, VA, May, 2008.8. George Hunter, Kris Ramamoorthy, "Integration of terminal area probabilistic meteorological forecasts in NAS-wide traffic flow management decision
making," 13th Conference on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, New Orleans, LA, January, 2008.9. Kris Ramamoorthy, George Hunter, "The Integration of Meteorological Data in Air Traffic Management: Requirements and Sensitivities," 46th AIAA
Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, Reno, NV, January, 2008.10. George Hunter, Ben Boisvert, Kris Ramamoorthy, "Advanced Traffic Flow Management Experiments for National Airspace Performance
Improvement," 2007 Winter Simulation Conference, Washington, DC, December, 2007.11. Kris Ramamoorthy, George Hunter, "Evaluation of National Airspace System Performance Improvement With Four Dimensional Trajectories," AIAA
Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Dallas, TX, October, 2007.12. Kris Ramamoorthy, Ben Boisvert, George Hunter, "Sensitivity of Advanced Traffic Flow Management to Different Weather Scenarios," Integrated
Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Conference (ICNS), Herndon, VA, May, 2007.13. George Hunter, Ben Boisvert, Kris Ramamoorthy, "Use of automated aviation weather forecasts in future NAS," The 87th American Meteorological
Society Annual Meeting, San Antonio, TX, January, 2007.14. Kris Ramamoorthy, George Hunter, "Probabilistic Traffic Flow Management in the Presence of Inclement Weather and Other System Uncertainties,"
INFORMS Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, November, 2006.15. Kris Ramamoorthy, Ben Boisvert, George Hunter, "A Real-Time Probabilistic TFM Evaluation Tool," AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference
(DASC), Portland, OR, October, 2006.16. George Hunter, Kris Ramamoorthy, Alexander Klein "Modeling and Performance of NAS in Inclement Weather," AIAA Aviation Technology,
Integration and Operations (ATIO) Forum, Wichita, KS, September 2006.17. Kris Ramamoorthy, George Hunter, "A Trajectory-Based Probabilistic TFM Evaluation Tool and Experiment," Integrated Communications, Navigation
and Surveillance Conference (ICNS), Baltimore, MD, May, 2006.18. Kris Ramamoorthy, George Hunter, "Avionics and National Airspace Architecture Strategies for Future Demand Scenarios in Inclement Weather," AIAA
Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Crystal City, VA, October, 2005.19. George Hunter, Kris Ramamoorthy, Joe Post, "Evaluation of the Future National Airspace System in Heavy Weather," AIAA Aviation Technology,
Integration and Operations (ATIO) Forum, Arlington, VA, September 2005.20. James D. Phillips, “An Accurate and Flexible Trajectory Analysis,” World Aviation Congress (SAE Paper 975599), Anaheim, CA, October 13-16, 1997.
Publications
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Questions?
Thank You
George HunterDiego Escala