the kearney reportreport · 2014. 8. 18. · kearneyrealty.com 2 the kearney reportreport as we...

The The The The Kearney Kearney Kearney Kearney ReportReportReportReport

Boulder County Real Estate

2nd Quarter 2014

KearneyRealty.com 2


As we analyzed the sales results for the second quarter, the numbers didn’t seem to reflect the market. The

number of sales was down slightly (2.7%) but that is like hearing a World War I report that casualties were

down slightly and pretending to understand what is going on. More relevant to the understanding of the local

real estate market are “Days to Offer”, “Sales to List Price Ratio” and “Median Sales Price”. I will go through

each in order.

Days to Offer Days to Offer Days to Offer Days to Offer When someone says that “the real estate market is good”, I think

they are referring to the perception of how long it’s taking for their

neighbors houses to sell. The technical term is “Days to Offer” as

opposed to “Days on Market” which includes the time the house took

to go from contract to closing. Days to offer begins when the prop-

erty goes on the MLS and continues until it is marked as under con-

tract or pending. When I get the question asking how long it’s going

to take to sell their home, this is what they mean. During the second

quarter, the average Days to Offer of all properties in Boulder

County was 31. Of course there were many homes that sold almost

immediately (in practice, even if an offer is received on the first day the DTO will be 3 or 4 because it takes

a bit of time to negotiate and get the paperwork done) but an average of one month is truly fast. Last year

was a similar market and the DTO was 42. In 2012, it was 74, 2011 it was 89 and in 2010 it was 77. This

year the inventory was low and with housing flying quickly off the market the problem was exasperated.

Sales to List Price RatioSales to List Price RatioSales to List Price RatioSales to List Price Ratio A seller can put any price they want on their home. You see it all over Zillow with their “Make me Move” fea-

ture. Joe Homeowner in a fit of especially clear thinking one night at 3 am signs up for the service by listing

his home which is worth $250,000 for $499,000. What the heck, maybe someone from China will come in and

pay cash. He’ll let his wife in on the big plan once the dream comes true. Usually once a home seller meets

with a Realtor and actually lists their home on the MLS the hazy reasoning that a buyer might pay $499,000

has lifted and clearer heads and data have prevailed. Still there, it is common for a seller to want to ask that

extra 5% to “see what will happen”. In a normal market buyers see the premium price for what it is and wait

for the price to come down. In a frenzied market, like the one we had this spring, buyers tend to quickly jus-

tify a reasonable price jump and pay at or near the list price. Traditionally, in the Boulder area the ratio be-

tween the sales price and the listing price has been around 97%. This means that the average negotiation is

around 3%. This year for all sold properties in Boulder County the sales price to list price ratio was 99.01%.

This means that the average negotiation was 1%. Included in this figure were all of the homes that sold for

over full price. By any measure, this is a sellers market.

Median Sales PriceMedian Sales PriceMedian Sales PriceMedian Sales Price How much ones home is worth is a big component about how one feels about their overall financial picture.

Houses selling quickly and for near their asking price are strong indicators for the more important measure of

Median Sales Price. Over the past two springs, housing prices have increased. How much is localized to each

neighborhood/home and coming up with an overall figure is fraught with some pitfalls. So far this year more

homes are selling in higher price ranges. Is this a measure that all prices are rising or is it that more “high

end” buyers are purchasing homes and thereby bringing up the average. It could be both. FHFA.gov measures

same house sales which eliminates this problem. FHFA.gov reported the 1 year appreciation ended March 31st

for Boulder County to be 8.1%. I would expect that number to increase for the second quarter.

As you browse through the rest of this report you will find a number of market measures displayed for smaller

areas within our market. Boulder and Longmont have the most sales in the area but the real estate markets in

those areas are very different. Enjoy the report!

KearneyRealty.com 3


The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) tracks home values in 283 metropolitan areas across the

United States. The top graph shows Boulder County’s appreciation on a quarterly basis compared to the

United States average. Data is available through the first quarter. Appreciation rates slowed from the

fourth quarter to the first quarter. Boulder’s appreciation outpaced the national average. According to

FHFA.gov, median home prices in Boulder County are 8.1% above where they were a year ago. The

lower graph shows Boulder’s national ranking in appreciation over time. The one year appreciation ranks

us 63rd among the 283 metropolitan districts which were surveyed in the most recent study.

Boulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder CountyBoulder County

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

1st Qtr.

2009

2nd Qtr.

2009

3rd Qtr.

2009

4th Qtr.

2009

1st Qtr.

2010

2nd Qtr.

2010

3rd Qtr.

2010

4th Qtr.

2010

1st Qtr.

2011

2nd Qtr.

2011

3rd Qtr.

2011

4th Qtr.

2011

1st Qtr.

2012

2nd Qtr.

2012

3rd Qtr.

2012

4th Qtr.

2012

1st Qtr.

2013

2nd Qtr.

2013

3rd Qtr.

2013

4th Qtr.

2013

1st Qtr.

2014

One Year Appreciation

Source FHFA.gov

Boulder County United States

0

50

100

150

200

250

2nd Qtr.

2006

4th Qtr.

2006

2nd Qtr.

2007

4th Qtr.

2007

2nd Qtr.

2008

4th Qtr.

2008

2nd Qtr.

2009

4th Qtr.

2009

2nd Qtr.

2010

4th Qtr.

2010

2nd Qtr.

2011

4th Qtr.

2011

2nd Qtr.

2012

4th Qtr.

2012

2nd Qtr.

2013

4th Qtr.

2013

FHFA Ranking Ranking of one year Appreciation

(280 Total Metro Areas)

KearneyRealty.com 4


Total sales were down just 1.6% in the 2nd quarter compared to a year ago. The 2nd quarter

had the third most transactions for any quarter over the past five years. Throughout Boulder

County, 67% of all real estate sales during the quarter were single family homes. The pie graph

on the right shows the breakdown of the percentage of properties that closed during the quar-

ter in each area. 31% of the closings during the quarter took place in Boulder, followed by

Longmont with 29%. What is listed as “Plains” is the suburban plains which includes, Gunbarrel,

Niwot, Lyons, the Boulder County side of Erie and all the rural area in between. 15% of all

closings took place in the Suburban Plains.


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

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2009

Q1

2010

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Q 1

2014

Q2

2014

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity Boulder County

67%

29%

4%

Boulder County Sales by Type

Residential Attached Other

31%

6%

10%29%

4%

5%

15%

Boulder County Sales by AreaBoulder Louisville Lafayette Longmont Superior Mountains Plains

KearneyRealty.com 5


The charts on this page of-

fer an interesting view of

the real estate market in

Boulder County.

The top chart shows what

percentage of the sales

happened in each price

range over the past four

quarters. Usually the data is

similar but what stands out

for the most recent quarter

is that as prices increased,

more sales shifted from the

$250k and less range to

the $250k to $500k range.

72% of the sales in the

county sold for less than

$500,000.

The lower chart shows

prices in Boulder County

over the last five years on

a quarterly basis. The me-

dian prices in the second

quarter increased a just a

bit but it was enough to set

a new record for median

prices. Our values are much

higher than the national av-

erage. The overall trend is

upward with price spikes

common in the spring of

the year.


32%

33%

32%

29%

44%

42%

41%

43%

14%

14%

17%

18%

5%

6%

4%

6%

5%

5%

6%

5%

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q 1 2014

Q2 2014

Boulder County Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

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2011

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2011

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2012

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2012

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2012

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2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q 1

2014

Q2

2014

Price Trends in Boulder County Real Estate

Median Price

Average Price

US Existing Median Price

KearneyRealty.com 6


Sales within the City of Boulder decreased by 4.7% during the second quarter this year when

compared to last year. More condos and townhomes sold in the City of Boulder than single

family homes. This past quarter 53% of the sales were for attached dwellings and 47% were

single family homes. Sales during the quarter were fairly evenly spread throughout the city. The

most sales took place in 80301 and 80303.

City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q1

2009

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2009

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2013

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2013

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2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity City of Boulder

47%

53%

Sales by Type City of Boulder

Residential Attached

24%

19%

22%

20%

15%

City of Boulder Sales by Zip Code

80301 80302 80303 80304 80305

KearneyRealty.com 7


The City of Boulder

sells more homes in

luxury quadrant than

any other area in the

county. 72% of the

sales countywide were

below $500,000, in the

City of Boulder only

54% of the sales were

below that threshold.

Within Boulder, sales

over $1 million were

11% of the market this

past quarter, this is

over double the per-

centage of the county.

The lower chart shows

prices in the City of

Boulder over the past

five years. During that

time, prices have seen

some good gains. Pre-

vious to that the prices

were fairly stagnant.

The median price for

the second quarter in

Boulder for all residen-

tial properties sold was

$455,000 which is a

new record.

City of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of BoulderCity of Boulder

25%

23%

24%

22%

34%

34%

35%

32%

22%

25%

22%

25%

11%

9%

8%

10%

8%

10%

11%

11%

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

City of Boulder Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

City of Boulder Price Trends

Median Price Average Price County Median

KearneyRealty.com 8


East County includes sales in Erie, Lafayette, Louisville and Superior. The top graph shows the

sales activity in that area. Despite the low inventory, sales in East County have been very

strong. A vast majority of the sales in East County are single family homes. Just 21% of sales

were condos or townhomes. The pie chart on the right shows where the sales are taking place.

The areas where the most sales are taking place are Erie and Lafayette. Not much is happening

in Louisville or Superior because of the very low inventory of homes for sale.

East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

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2010

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Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity East County Communities

79%

21%

Sales by Type East County Communities

Residential Attached

17%

33%

13%

37%

East County Sales by Area

Louisville Lafayette Superior Erie

KearneyRealty.com 9



sales in Erie, Lafayette,

Louisville and Superior

during the first quarter

was $385,000. A vast

majority of the sales in

this geographical area

are in the $250 -

$500k range. There are

not very many sales

above $750,000 (just

23 sales or 5%) but

this number seems to

be increasing.

Unlike other areas in

Boulder County, prices

in East County have

shown a slow steady

climb over the past

few years.

There is a lack of in-

ventory in many of the

markets in East

County. The mix of

proximity, lifestyle and

median price had

made these communi-

ties very popular with

buyers. This has

caused positive price

pressure. Also, the new

homes being built es-

pecially in Erie are

priced higher than the

average.

East CountyEast CountyEast CountyEast County

22%

23%

18%

18%

61%

59%

62%

61%

13%

11%

16%

17%

3%

6%

3%

4%

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

East County - Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

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2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

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2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Price Trend in East Boulder County

Median Price Average Price County Median Price

KearneyRealty.com 10


Gunbarrel is an area just northeast of Boul-

der. It is comprised of properties both within

the City of Boulder and others which are in

Boulder County. The general sales trend in

this area is positive, however this area has

far fewer sales than the other areas we

track. 52% of the sales in Gunbarrel were

single family homes and the balance were

condos and townhomes. There were just 77

sales in Gunbarrel during the most recent

quarter. This is down from 85 during the

second quarter last year.

GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q2

2009

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Q2

2014

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Gunbarrel

Residential48%

Attached52%

Sales by Type Gunbarrel




all sales in Gunbarrel

during the third quarter

was $319,900. 73% of

the sales in Gunbarrel

this past quarter

closed for $500,000 or

less. There were just 4

sales over $500,000

during the quarter.

The sample size for

Gunbarrel is smaller

than the other areas

we look at. Therefore,

the prices reflected in

the graph below are

more variable. Prices in

Gunbarrel ended the

quarter at the County

median price. A lot of

the variability also has

to do with the chang-

ing mix of condo sales

vs. single family sales.

During the most recent

quarter more condos

sold than usual and

this brought down the

median price. The av-

erage price increased

because there were

more sales in the

higher priced ranges.

GunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrelGunbarrel

24%

33%

41%

44%

40%

48%

41%

29%

30%

11%

18%

22%

6%

4%

0%

3%

0%

4%

0%

3%

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Gunbarrel Percent of Sales by Price Range

0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

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2011

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2011

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2012

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2012

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2012

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2012

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2013

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2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Price Trend in Gunbarrel

Median Price

Average Price

Boulder County Median



Sales in Longmont were very strong during the second quarter. Sales nearly doubled between

the first and second quarter. 81% of the sales in Longmont are single family homes. Sales are

usually evenly spread throughout the city but this past quarter the highest sales activity were in

zip code 80504.

LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

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2010

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Q2

2014

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Longmont

Residential81%

Attached19%

Sales by Type Longmont

35%

25%

40%

Sales by Zip Code - Longmont

80501 80503 80504




all sales in Longmont

during the second

quarter was $255,000,

up from $232,500 last

year. Nearly all of the

sales in Longmont

close for $500,000 or

less. There have only

been just six sales

over $750,000 during

the past four quarters.

The median and aver-

age prices in Longmont

are lower than the

county average. The

majority of homes in

Longmont are in the

$150,000 to $300,000

range. This past quar-

ter the average price

of a home that sold in

Longmont was

$285,645. The average

price for all homes

sold in Boulder County

was $432,136. If you

are looking for a rea-

sonably priced single

family home, Longmont

continues to be a

good place to look.

LongmontLongmontLongmontLongmont

51%

56%

54%

48%

45%

40%

38%

46%

4%

3%

7%

6%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Longmont Percent of Sales by Price Range0 - 250K 250 - 500K 500 - 750K 750 - 1M 1M+

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

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2011

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2011

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2012

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2012

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2012

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2013

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2013

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2013

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2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Price Trend in Longmont

Median Price Average Price Boulder County



Kearney Realty is a local boutique real estate firm with the mission to provide the Boulder Valley a high touch, high touch, high touch, high touch,

high tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experiencehigh tech, five star customer experience. Each of our full time associates is empowered and engaged to give top

quality service based on impeccable ethics, consistent systems, professional development and cutting edge tools.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

January March May July September November

Boulder County Sales by Month

Single Family and Condos

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Boulder County Median PriceSingle Family and Condos

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2007200720072007 2008200820082008 2009200920092009 2010201020102010 2011201120112011 2012201220122012 2013201320132013 2014201420142014

Homes on the Market

Boulder County Residential

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

January March May July September November

Boulder County - Percentage of Single Family Listings Under Contract

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



The charts on this page show activity on a weekly basis. The top chart shows new listings coming on

the market and the purple line (2013) shows the trend in lower inventory. The lower chart shows the

number of homes that have gone under contract on a weekly basis. This shows gross numbers not per-

centage increases. The combination of these two graphs demonstrate the shortage in the market.

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Boulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real EstateBoulder County Real Estate

New Listings New Listings New Listings New Listings ---- WeeklyWeeklyWeeklyWeekly

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Ax

is T

itle

Weekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under ContractWeekly Under Contract

2011

2012

2013

2014



Kearney Realty - Our Core Values

1. Integrity and Class – Keeping our word; knowing what’s right and

doing what’s right.

2. Selfless Service – Exceeding expectations by focusing on excep-

tional service.

3. Caring - All of our relationships are based on mutual respect, co-

operation and consideration.

4. Connected - Give back to the profession and the community. 5%

of company profits are donated to local charities.

5. Innovation – Continually striving to find new and better ways to

serve our customers and associates.

0

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152

Sa

les

Boulder County Real Estate

Number Sold - Weekly

2011

2012

2013

2014

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