the mixed system: how did primaries change the presidential nomination process?

The Mixed System: The Mixed System: How did primaries How did primaries change the presidential change the presidential nomination process?nomination process?

Methods of Nominating Methods of Nominating Presidential CandidatesPresidential Candidates

““King Caucus”: 1800-1828King Caucus”: 1800-1828

Convention System: 1832-1912Convention System: 1832-1912

The Convention The Convention SystemSystem National party nominating National party nominating

convention selects presidential convention selects presidential candidatecandidate

Strong partiesStrong parties PatronagePatronage High participationHigh participation Parties try to control presidentsParties try to control presidents

Three changes at the Three changes at the turn of the 20turn of the 20thth centurycentury

Civil ServiceCivil Service

Rise In Civil Service Rise In Civil Service EmploymentEmployment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1816 1831 1851 1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991

Percentage of employees under merit

Number of federal Number of federal employees under merit employees under merit

system,system, 1816-19211816-1921

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1816 1821 1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921

Number of employees Number of civil servants



Communications technologyCommunications technology

Changes in technologyChanges in technology

Railroads (1850s +)Railroads (1850s +)

Daily newspapers (1880s +)Daily newspapers (1880s +)

Radio and TV (1930s +)Radio and TV (1930s +)

Number of daily and Number of daily and weekly newspapersweekly newspapers

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Number of daily newspapers Number of weeklies

Number of Households with Number of Households with radio and TV (in millions)radio and TV (in millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Households with radio Households with TV



Communications technologyCommunications technology

Primary electionsPrimary elections

Number of States Number of States Holding Primary Holding Primary ElectionsElections

02

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968

Democrats Republicans

First Three Methods of First Three Methods of Nominating Presidential Nominating Presidential CandidatesCandidates



Mixed System: 1912-1968Mixed System: 1912-1968

Mixed SystemMixed System

Real decision about nomination Real decision about nomination made at national conventionmade at national convention

Candidates Candidates cancan choose to run in choose to run in primariesprimaries

Percent of Party Percent of Party Convention Delegates Convention Delegates Chosen by PrimariesChosen by Primaries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968


Number of Convention Number of Convention Ballots to Select Ballots to Select Presidential NomineePresidential Nominee

05

10

15

20

2530

35

40

45

50

1832 1840 1848 1856 1864 1872 1880 1888 1896

Republican Democratic

Number of Convention Number of Convention Ballots to Select the Ballots to Select the Presidential NomineePresidential Nominee

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968


1952 Democratic 1952 Democratic Convention: Delegates Convention: Delegates pledged by primariespledged by primaries

Sen. Estes Kefauver (TN): 257.5 Sen. Estes Kefauver (TN): 257.5 delegatesdelegates

Gov. Adlai Stevenson (IL): 41.5 Gov. Adlai Stevenson (IL): 41.5 delegatesdelegates

Uncommitted: 611.5 delegatesUncommitted: 611.5 delegates

Others: Others: – Sen. Richard Russell (GA): 161.5 delegatesSen. Richard Russell (GA): 161.5 delegates– Averell Harriman: 112.5 delegatesAverell Harriman: 112.5 delegates– Sen. Bob Kerr (OK): 45.5 delegatesSen. Bob Kerr (OK): 45.5 delegates

Review the three systems we’ve Review the three systems we’ve discussed.discussed.

Which do you think is most Which do you think is most democratic? democratic?

Which has the best chance of Which has the best chance of producing good presidents?producing good presidents?

1968 Democratic 1968 Democratic ConventionConvention

The Primary SystemThe Primary System

Presidential Presidential Party Nomination Party Nomination SystemsSystems



Mixed System: 1912-1968Mixed System: 1912-1968

Primary System: 1972-???Primary System: 1972-???

McGovern Fraser McGovern Fraser Commission: Commission: Changes to Changes to

Democratic Party RulesDemocratic Party Rules Anti-discrimination provisionsAnti-discrimination provisions Explicit party rules and open party meetingsExplicit party rules and open party meetings Bans the UNIT RULEBans the UNIT RULE

– Unit rule: the practice of apportioning Unit rule: the practice of apportioning delegates in a winner-take-all fashiondelegates in a winner-take-all fashion

Encourages broad and open participation in Encourages broad and open participation in delegate selection processdelegate selection process

Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in delegate selection processweighted in delegate selection process

Bans the automatic delegate-status of party Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and elected officeholdersofficials and elected officeholders

Number of states Number of states holding holding primary electionsprimary elections

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

4045

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000


Percent of Party Percent of Party Convention Delegates Convention Delegates Chosen by PrimariesChosen by Primaries

010203040

5060708090

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000


Some delegates still Some delegates still chosen by other meanschosen by other means Caucus:Caucus:

– A Meeting where any affiliated voter A Meeting where any affiliated voter can come and express their opinionscan come and express their opinions

State convention:State convention:– Local party groups select delegates to Local party groups select delegates to

state party convention. State state party convention. State convention delegates select convention delegates select delegates to national nominating delegates to national nominating convention.convention.

Consequences of Party Consequences of Party ReformReform Increase in number of primariesIncrease in number of primaries Increase in importance of mediaIncrease in importance of media

– (And hence the importance of early (And hence the importance of early primaries!)primaries!)

Consequences of Party Consequences of Party ReformReform Increase in number of primariesIncrease in number of primaries Increase in importance of mediaIncrease in importance of media Increase in importance of early Increase in importance of early

primaries (and momentum and primaries (and momentum and expectations!)expectations!)

A representative A representative beginning?beginning?From the 2000 CensusFrom the 2000 Census

IowaIowa New New HampshirHampshir

ee

National National averageaverage

PopulatioPopulationn

2,929,3242,929,324

(30(30thth))1,235,7861,235,786

(41(41stst))281,421,90281,421,90

66

% White% White 93.9%93.9% 96%96% 75.1%75.1%

Median Median incomeincome

$39,469$39,469 $49,467$49,467 $41,994$41,994

% Farm % Farm employmemploymtt

4.4%4.4% .9%.9% 1.9%1.9%


primaries (and momentum and primaries (and momentum and expectations!)expectations!)

Decreases importance of national Decreases importance of national party conventionsparty conventions


primariesprimaries Decreases importance of national party Decreases importance of national party

conventionsconventions Decreases importance of state party Decreases importance of state party

leadersleaders Party activists give way to candidate Party activists give way to candidate

activistsactivists

Changes After 1968Changes After 1968

McGovern-Fraser reformsMcGovern-Fraser reforms

FECAFECA

Federal Election Federal Election Campaign Act Campaign Act

Creates a Creates a voluntary voluntary subsidy for subsidy for candidates who enter primary electionscandidates who enter primary elections– All funds candidates raise in amounts of All funds candidates raise in amounts of

$250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 $250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are different states) are matchedmatched by the federal by the federal government on Jan 1 of election yeargovernment on Jan 1 of election year

Bans large donations by individualsBans large donations by individuals– Individuals can only give $2000 to a Individuals can only give $2000 to a

primary candidateprimary candidate

Consequences of Party Consequences of Party Reform & FECAReform & FECA Increase in number of primariesIncrease in number of primaries Increase in importance of mediaIncrease in importance of media Increase in importance of early Increase in importance of early

primariesprimaries Decreases importance of national party Decreases importance of national party

conventionsconventions Decreases importance of state party Decreases importance of state party

leadersleaders Harder to raise money (takes longer to Harder to raise money (takes longer to

raise big money in small contributions!)raise big money in small contributions!)

A Couple of Problems?A Couple of Problems?

Ideological primary voters?Ideological primary voters?

Candidates mobilize factions?Candidates mobilize factions?

the mixed system: how did primaries change the presidential nomination process?

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