the navigator company q1 2018 results presentation · update on new projects – pulp f. foz 20...
TRANSCRIPT
May 10th 2018
The Navigator Company
Q1 2018Results Presentation
Diogo da Silveira – CEO
Fernando Araújo – CFO
António Redondo – CCO
Nuno Santos
João Paulo Oliveira
Joana Appleton – IR
Participation
1
• Main highlights
• Market outlook
• Group performance
• Update on new projects
Q1 2018 results presentation
2
3
Significant turnover growth and diversification over the last years
Q1 2018 – Key Highlights
3
P&P Market • Pulp market continued strong with additionalincrease in prices
• Improvement in UWF pricesVolumes • Overall decrease in volumes due to production
stoppages, mainly in pulpDivestment • Conclusion of sale of Pellets business in the US
EBITDA • Positive impact of sale of pellets business• EBITDA without pellets improved 8% with
EBITDA/Sales of 26.4%Cost reduction • M2 program continues with total estimated
impact at € 3.8 million YoYNet Debt • Strong reduction in net debt with EBITDA/Net
Debt of 1.3Outlook • Positive momentum for prices should continue
• Navigator announced another price increase inUWF for July shipments
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1 11 21 31 41 51 9 19 29 39 49 7 17 27 37 47 4 14 24 34 44 2 12 22 32 42 52 10 20 30 40 50
USD/ton BHKP EUR/ton BHKP
2018: Upward trend in pulp prices continues
PIX Europe
Av. YTw 13:824 €/ton
(+1.0% YTD)
Av. YTw 13:1013 USD/ton(+3.8% YTD)
2014 20162015 20172013
USD/ton €/ton
Week2018
Av. 2017:817 USD/ton
(Var. W1-52: +51%)
Av. 2017:723 €/ton
(Var. W1-52: +33%)
Av. 2016:717 USD/ton
(Var. W1-52: -16%)
Av. 2016:673 €/ton
(Var. W1-52: -13%)
4
YTD 2018 price increase in BHKP in USD: +3.8% and in Euros: +1.0%
YoY average price increase in BHKP in USD: +48% and in Euros: +28%
Market balance estimated for 2018 depends on China effect
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Conserv.
Optim.
YoYkton
Feb. 2018M ton
48%
Share UWFOn world P&W paper
demand (exc. Newsprint)
UWF continues one of the best performing grade in P&W papers
Inc. SuperCalendered
14.0 6.8 3.6 1.8 1.9
‐0.8%
+0.0%
‐2.5%
‐1.7%
+0.1%
‐200
‐150
‐100
‐50
0
50
100
150
200
Total UncoatedWoodfree
CoatedWoodfree
UncoatedMechanical
CoatedMechanical
6Sources: PPPC; The Navigator Company
Source: Risi; EMGE Euro-Graph; The Navigator Company
Declining demand UWF: both in CS (-4.8%) and FL&RL (-0.7%) in Q1 2018 YoY
-2.5% UWF in Q1 2018 YoY
Price increase in Jan-Feb 2018 (+40USD/ton) and May 2018 (+55-70USD/ton)
PPP Copy 20-lb increases +20USD/ton (+1.9%) in Q1 2018 (YoY)
OR 92% (+2 pp)
Capacity decrease (-640 kton in Q4 2017-2018, aligned with expectedmarket in 2016-2018, -575 kton)
World paper market in Q1 2018
USA EUR
Contracting demand UWF: in CS (-5.5%), FL (-1.4%) and RL (-3.3%)in Q1 2018 YoY
-4.1% UWF in Q1 2018 YoY
PIX Copy-B increases +42 €/ton(+5.2%) in Q1 2018 YoY
Destocking effect since Nov 2017(CS, EMGE index); Some supplyrestrictions
OR 94% (-4 pp)
Apart from the period Mar-Jul 2017,Mar 2018 order book is the bestsince 2010 (34d)
Asia/China
Major players announced in the lastmonths aggregated worldwide priceincreases of more than +250USD/ton
Capacity increase in 2018:In China: +1.2 M tonIn UAE: +300 kton
China: tight environmental policiespressuring “old China” closures (littledetails available)
Ongoing energy restriction policiesnear Shangai and Beijing
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European papermakers margin at minimum level
Index FOEX PIX (Europe)
A4 – B Copy: index for uncotaed woodfree paper (80 g/m2)
BHKP: index for bleached harwood kraft pulp (eucalyptus or birch)
A4 – B Copy
BHKP
€/ton
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Improvement in paper price benchmark in 2018
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
1 5 9131721252933374145491 5 913172125293337414549534 812162024283236404448524 812162024283236404448524 81216202428323640444852
A4 B-copy
Last PIX (W18): 860 €/ton
Average price in Q1 improved +5.2% YoY (+2.2% YTD)
2014 20162015 2017
European Market Paper Price – A4 B-copy €/ton
2018
Week
Av. 2016:822 €/ton
(Var. W1-52: -3.5%)
Av. 2017:819 €/ton
(Var. W1-52: +4.1%)
Av. YTw 13:845 €/ton(+2.2% YTD)
Source: FOEX9
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Navigator paper performance in Q1 2018
• UWF sales volume of 361 kton (-10.3 kton YoY) and product miximprovement:
+ Premium products share up to 55% (+5.8 pp YoY; +16 kton YoY)
+ Mill brands up to 68% (+8.3 pp YoY; +9 kton YoY)
• In Q1 2018 Navigator led 2 pulp price increases in Europe(January and March) and in International markets and in theUS (January and April)
• Average price increased +3.1% YoY in spite of FX negative impact(USD impacted ~30% of paper sales)
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Pulp turnover impacted by reduction in volume
• Pulp sales in volume of 53 kton, 37 kton less YoY due todecreased availability of pulp:
+ Maintenance stoppage at Setúbal pulp mill
+ Stock build up at Figueira da Foz (for planned maintenance + pulp capacity increase project)
• Navigator’s net price in Q1 2018 increased +28% YoY
• Improvement in the weight of Decor and Special paper sales inEurope, high contribution segments, from 64% to 84% YoY
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Tissue business impacted by pulp price
• Volume of tissue sold in converted products increased 13% YoY
• Sales increased 4% to € 19 million (vs. € 18 million)
• Average sales price 9% higher YoY due to improvement in product mix(decreased weight of reels)
• Operating margin impacted by pulp price increase
AFH 64%
AH 31%
Reels 5%
Tissue Sales by segment
Portugal 58%
(-3% YoY)
Spain 36%
(+0% YoY)
Other 6%
(+4% YoY)
Tissue Sales by market
EBITDA Performance in Q1
Delta Pellets: + € 9.4 million of capital gain + € 2.3 million of pellets losses in 2017 +
Other
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Positive performance in EBITDA due to price effect and pellets sale
M €
12
217
Pellets & Other
CostsPrice EffectVolume Effect
-11
EBITDA R17
90
EBITDA R18
111
M2 cost reduction and efficiency programme continues
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• Estimated impact YoY on EBITDA in Q1 2018 of € 3.8 million,mainly due to:
+ Fibre consumption: € 1.3 million
+ Chemicals: € 0.8 million
• Savings in energy contracts renegotiation estimated at € 7.3million
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Free Cash Flow positively impacted by cash from pellets sale and VATreimbursement
Free Cash Flow at € 134 million
*Others includes:• Cash from pellets business sale (€ 68 million)• VAT reimbursement (€ 51 million)
Free Cash Flow
Suppliers and Others*
Change in Accounts
Receivables
Change in Inventories
CAPEXOperating Cash Flow
Free Cash FlowM €
86
13492
-2-14-29
16
Significant reduction in net debt
641 617
738 742693
559
1,6 1,61,8 1,9
1,7
1,3
Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018
Net debt & Net debt/EBITDA
Net debt Net debt/EBITDA
M €
-3,9
-5,5
Q1 2017 Q1 2018
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New credit facilities and extension of maturity reduce cost of debtQ1 2018 – Financial results
Financial results negatively impacted by
one off item
Financial results decreased from - € 3.9 to - € 5.5 million:
• Negative impact of € 3.3 million, related to advance recognition of the difference between the nominal and current value of the deferred amount for disposal of the pellets business (USD 45 million).
• Interest expense was reduced by € 0.2 million
• Positive impact of currency hedging and exchange rate of € 3.0 million
CAPEX of € 29 million (vs. € 14 million)
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11,4
1,911,0
4,2
Pulp Figueira
Tissue Rodão Pulp, Paper and Others
28,6
Tissue Cacia CAPEX
CAPEX
YoBMain
Projects
M €
Outlook for 2016
Pulp: positive momentum should continue as demand as beenabsorbing new capacities
Tissue: high pressure on margins; rise in pulp price needs to be offset byan increase in tissue price
Paper: order book remains strong and new price increases are beingannounced in Europe and the rest of the world
• No foreseeable change in market conditions for pulp and paper in the nearfuture and main concerns remain exchange rate and cost of chemicals
• Operating performance in Q2 2018 will be impacted by productionstoppage at Figueira da Foz pulp mill.
Outlook for 2018
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Update on New Projects – Pulp F. Foz
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Optimization Project 3 – Ecoefficiency:
Total CAPEX of € 81.5 million
Main Goals:• Increase the annual pulp production from
580,000 to 650,000 tAD
• Increase the efficiency of pulp process
• Reduce wood and chemicals specific consumption
• Implementation of BAT (ex: O2 delign)
• Environmental advantage for flue gas and liquid
effluent emissions
• Collection and burning of diluted odorous gases
Project completed in April and ramping-up
Update on Cacia tissue project
• Integrated tissue mill with capacity to produce 70 kton of reels andconverted products
• Project on time and on budget:
- paper machine to start up in Q3 2018
- converting lines starting in May
- Estimated capex kept at € 121 million
• Book-building of new clients in progress in Portugal, Spain,
France and UK
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Current view of Cacia tissue project
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Cacia tissue project: first converting line to start 3rd week of May
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Cacia tissue project: first converting line to start 3rd week of May
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Cacia tissue project: first toilet paper and pallet produced (current week)
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Navigator – #2 player in tissue in Iberia after expansion project
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Paperproduction
Oth
ers
Fin
ish
edp
rod
uct
pro
du
ctio
n(c
onve
rtin
g)
Finished product
production (converting)
Paperproduction
Estimated tissue production capacity in Iberian Peninsula (kton)
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2018 Dividend proposal
Dividend proposal - AGM to be held on May 23th 2018:
+ Navigator Board of Directors proposes dividend of €170 million to be paid in June (0.2371 €/share)
+ Main Shareholder proposes distribution of reserves of € 30 million to be paid in July (0.04184 €/share)
+ Implicit dividend yield of 6%*
*Reference price share on May 8th of 4,936 €/share
Back-up slides – Financials
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Quarterly Financials 2015
393 420 397 427385
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Turnover (M €)
90108 102 104 111
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
EBITDA (M €)
36
6150
62 53
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Net Earnings (M €)
23% 26% 26% 25% 29%
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
EBITDA/Sales (%)
11%15% 13% 15% 17%
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
ROCE (%)
11%
21%17%
21%18%
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
ROE (%)
Quarterly figures – YoY evolution
Disclaimer
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This presentation is intended to provide a general overview of The Navigator Company S.A.’s businessand does not purport to deal with all aspects and details regarding The Navigator Company S.A..Accordingly, no representation, undertaking or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by The NavigatorCompany S.A. or any of its subsidiaries’ undertakings, affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisorsor any other person as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information oropinions contained in this presentation or of the views given or implied or any other material discussionin connection with this presentation.
This presentation has been prepared by The Navigator Company S.A. for information purposes only. TheNavigator Company S.A. or any of its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisers or any otherperson shall not have any liability whatsoever (including in case of omission, negligence or otherwise) forany losses, errors or omissions howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentationor its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith or with respect to their reliance upon thecompleteness and accuracy of any such information, as well as any damages resulting hereof.