The Potential for Wind

Energy in the UK

Elizabeth Garstin

February 24th 2005

Wind Energy in the UK

• Wind is a clean, abundant, and sustainable source of energy.

• The energy future is uncertain, but wind is vital in building a secure and sustainable future.

• The UK has the largest wind resource in Europe (The Carbon Trust, 2003).

Wind Energy in the UK

• Current cost of generating electricity from onshore wind is 3.1p KWh-1 (OXERA, 2004).

• Expected to fall to 2.7p KWh-1 by 2010 (OXERA, 2004).

• The average wind farm in the UK will take 3-5 months to pay back the energy used in its manufacture (BWEA, 2004).

Wind turbines built in UK in 2004

60

9.35

163.6

21.35

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

England NorthernIreland

Scotland Wales

Ins

tall

ed

(M

W)

Onshore

Offshore

Build Rate in 2004• 254.3MW of wind

power installed in 2004 (equivalent of one 1.5MW wind turbine every 2 days).

• Total installed wind power in UK at end of 2004 was 904.87MW (BWEA, 2004). (Adapted from BWEA, 2004)

Wind Energy Projections (1)

• Projections were calculated based on 2004 build rate.

• Assume increase in build rate of 40% each year until rate of 900MW in wind capacity added per year.

• Level of additional 900MW per annum sustained until the year 2030.

Wind Energy Projections (2)

• Assume level of total electricity generation remains constant at 379TWh (1364PJ), consistent with 2003 figure (BWEA, 2004).

• Assume load factor of 30% for turbines.

Wind Energy Projections (3)Projections for the Generation of Electricity by

Wind Power, 2000 to 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

En

erg

y G

en

era

tio

n (

PJ

)

Wind Energy Projections (4)

• 219 PJ of energy supplied by wind power by 2030.

• This equates to ~15,000 turbines of 1.5MW capacity being built between 2004 and 2030.

• Average of 3 turbines being built every 2 days.

Wind Energy Projections (5)Proportion of Total Electricity Generation

Supplied by Wind

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

% o

f T

ota

l Gen

erat

ion

Wind Energy Projections (6)Projections for the Change in Proportion of Electricity

Supplied by Wind Energy

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

En

erg

y (

PJ

)

Electricity Suppliedby Wind (PJ)Electricity Suppliedby Other Means (PJ)

References

• BWEA, 2004, http://www.bwea.com/pdf/reviewsmall.pdf

• The Carbon Trust, 2003, http://www.thecarbontrust.co.uk/carbontrust/about/press_releases/PressRelease_29_10_03.pdf

• OXERA, 2004, http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/renewables/policy/oxeraresults.pdf