the quality of education in indonesia
TRANSCRIPT
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The Quality of Education in Indonesia:Weighed, Measured, and Found Wanting
Daniel SuryadarmaAustralian National University
Presented at Forum Kajian Pembangunan Seminar Series SMERU Research Institute, Jakarta, 18 May 2011
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Let’s start with a test
Think of a fraction that is smaller than
4
9
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How did 8th graders (kelas 2 SMP) perform?
• Singapore (top performer): 84% correct
• Korea and Japan: 81%
• Australia: 71%
• United States: 69%
• Malaysia: 43%
• South Africa: 30%
• Indonesia: 26%
• Ghana (bottom performer): 21%Source: TIMSS 8th grade test
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Should we be worried?
• Yes.
• Student performance in a standardised test is an indicator of school quality.
• Countries with high quality schools have higher economic growth (Hanushek & Woessmann, 08).
– Most of the effect go through higher skills in the labour market.
– The rest probably go through social benefits, like lower crime.
• With growth comes lower poverty, higher support for democracy, and a healthier population.
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Outline
I. The quality of education in Indonesia
• Measured using student performance in international mathematics, science, and reading assessments.
II. Some challenges
• Curriculum
• Teacher absence, distribution
• Teacher qualification
III. Efforts to improve education quality
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TIMSS 2007
• Also conducted in 1995, 1999, 2003.
• Tests mathematics and science aptitude of 4th and 8th grade students in 50 countries and 7 states in Spain, Canada, US, UAE.
• Indonesia participated since 1999, only 8th grade.– In 2007, about 4000 students participated.
• Grading: mean 500, standard deviation 100.
• Benchmark scores:– 625 (Advanced): students can organise and draw conclusions from
information, make generalizations, and solve non-routine problems.
– 550 (High): students can apply their understanding and knowledge in a variety of relatively complex situations.
– 400 (Low): students have some knowledge of whole numbers and decimals, operations, and basic graphs.
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Indonesia’s Mathematics Performance (1)
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
1999 2003 2007
Sco
re
TIMSS Mathematics Performance
Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand
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Indonesia’s Mathematics Performance (2)
36
18
7770
1712 8 47
18
1 3
21
34
50 52
0102030405060708090
1999 2007 1999 2007 1999 2007 1999 2007
Malaysia Singapore Thailand Indonesia
Nu
mb
er
pe
r 1
00
stu
de
nts
Benchmark Achievement
Share children scoring above 550 Share children scoring below 400
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Indonesia’s Science Performance
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
1999 2003 2007
Sco
re
TIMSS Science Performance
Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand
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Indonesia’s Reading Performance
360370380390400410420430440450460470480
2000 2003 2006 2009
Sco
re
PISA Reading Performance
Indonesia Thailand Brazil Russia
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Pritchett & Viarengo (08): “Economic Mundial” (1)
• We live in a globalised world, where a person competes with others around the world.
– Football analogy: one can be a very good footballer in Indonesia, but he would likely be mediocre in England. So, you need to be competitive globally.
– Message: It is important to know where you are in the world, not just in your own corner of the world.
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Pritchett & Viarengo (08): “Economic Mundial” (2)
• A country’s competitiveness in the world does not depend on the average skills, but on the number of the best individuals.
– Football analogy: a country with 11 average players would lose against a country with 6 very good players and 5 mediocre players. Note that the average skills of the two teams would be about the same.
– Message: a country’s competitiveness directly depends on the number of superstars that the country can produce.
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Pritchett & Viarengo (08): “Economic Mundial” (3)
• We don’t really think like that in education.
– We care about those who fail the national examination.
– We care about the average skills of the students.
– We care about those who drop out of school.
• We should start worrying about the number of superstars that the education system produces.
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Superstar Production (1)
• How many superstars does the Indonesian education system produce?
– TIMSS 2007 Math: the upper bound of the share of Indonesian 8th graders who scored 625 or higher is 0.4%.
– From Susenas 2007: the number of students in 8th
grade is 3.7 million students.
– So, Indonesia produces less than 15 thousand superstars per cohort.
15
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Superstar Production (2)
0.4
1.51
0.83
18.2
6.52
0.29
0 5 10 15 20
Indonesia
Thailand
India
Korea
USA
Mexico
Superstars per 100 students
Share 8th graders scoring 625 or more
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Superstar Production (3)
14962 15419
182904
127592
272407
58220
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Indonesia Thailand India Korea USA Mexico
Nu
mb
er
N in a cohort (population)
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Some Factors that Affect School Quality
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Curriculum: Instructional Hours and Content (1)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Math instruction per month (hours)
Share spent on math per week (%)
Instructional hours per week (hours)
Figure 4. School Instructional Hours
Average Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand Indonesia
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Curriculum: Instructional Hours and Content (2)
0 10 20 30 40
Only taught to more able students
Not taught
Taught to all students
Number
Figure 5. Mathematics Content in School
Average Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand Indonesia
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Teacher Absence
• 19% (SMERU’s studies)
– Excludes anticipated absences.
– Higher than Bangladesh, Ecuador, Peru.
– Unchanged between 2003 and 2008.
• Suryadarma et al (06): Teacher absence has a significant and negative relationship with mathematics performance.
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Class Size and Teacher Distribution (1)
• Suryadarma et al (06): The ideal class size for primary schools in Indonesia is 25.
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
1-24 students 25-40 students 41 or more students
Sco
re
Figure 8. Class Size and TIMSS 2007 Score, Indonesia
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Class Size and Teacher Distribution (2)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Monaco
Slovenia
Luxembourg
Serbia
Saudi Arabia
Israel
Slovak Republic
United States
Tunisia
Peru
Guatemala
Mexico
Vietnam
Mali
Colombia
Nicaragua
MozambiqueFigure 7. Student-Teacher Ratio, 2008
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Class size and teacher distribution (3)
• The issue in Indonesia is not class size/student-teacher ratio.
• It is an imbalance in teacher distribution.– Related to teacher absence.
• del Granado et al (07) – Urban areas: 68% of schools have too many teachers; 21% have too
few.
– Remote areas: 17% of school have too many teachers; 66% of schools have too few.
• However, Indonesia needs more qualified teachers.– 75% of SMP teachers have an S1.
– Malaysia: 82%; Thailand: 99%; Singapore: 95%.
– Education attainment is only a rough indicator of quality.
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Efforts for Improvement
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Interventions around the world
• Recap– In 2007, Indonesia was 80 points behind Malaysia; 200 points behind
Singapore in mathematics.
• There is no panacea for improving education quality.
• Various interventions and their impact (from Wai-Poi, 2009; Pradhan et al, 2011).
Intervention Country Effect (points)
Improving community participation
Indonesia 17 - 22
Merit-based scholarships Kenya 12
Teacher performance pay Kenya 14 - 34
Teacher performance pay India 12 - 19
Camera-based monitoring India 17 - 21
Class-size reduction Israel 10 - 50
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Current efforts in Indonesia (1)
• Central Government’s efforts:
– Teacher certification.
– Teacher professional development.
– To my knowledge, there is yet to be a quantitative impact evaluation on these efforts.
• Not much is known on local governments’ efforts.
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Current efforts in Indonesia (2)
• Private sector efforts:
– Some interesting ideas:
• Abolishing education streaming in senior secondary schools.
• Boarding school model.
• Indonesia Mengajar.
• Improving the quality of teacher education institutions.
– Lessons from successful endeavors:
• International-standard education is expensive.
• Risk of failure remains high.
– Most have no rigorous impact evaluation either.
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Summary (1)
• On average, school quality in Indonesia is low compared to its neighbours and other comparable countries.
– The skills gap between Indonesia and its neighbours is staggering.
– Most education interventions do not have large enough effects to bring Indonesia to parity.
• Superstar production is also low in Indonesia.
• Helping only the low performers is insufficient for Indonesia to be globally competitive.
• Highly talented individuals must also be nurtured.
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Summary (2)• Have we focused too much on piecemeal approaches?
– We need many groundbreaking ideas that are tailored to the Indonesian culture.
– We need the freedom to test these ideas in the field (subject to passing ethical standards.
– Some ideas (from Finland): • matching students with the same teachers throughout SD.
• Rather than 3 classes of 12 students each, what about a class of 36 students with 3 teachers?
• Every education intervention needs to be rigorously evaluated.– To identify ideas that really work.
– The evaluation framework should be designed from the ground up.
• In 2015, the ASEAN Economic Community will begin.– Free movement of goods and capital.
– And labour. 30