© OECD/IEA 2012

The Role of EVs in a Clean Energy Future

Ms. Maria van der HoevenExecutive DirectorInternational Energy AgencyIreland, 11 July 2012

Fully Charged 2012 International Electric Vehicle Summit Dublin

ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures

© OECD/IEA 2012

6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results

The 6°C Scenario

4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency

The 4°C Scenario

2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions

The 2°C Scenario

A smart, sustainable energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012

A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

Decarbonising electricity generation in Ireland

Renewables policy emphasis Favourable REFITs extended Wind =10%; 30% 2020 target New REFITs for 2nd gen. biomass

Gas is the dominant fuel Now accounts for 62% of power Will grow in tandem with growth

in variable renewables

Coal and peat are declining Carbon tax disincentive Peat subsidies phased out

Renewables target: 40% generation by 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

TWh

Oil Natural gas Peat Coal Hydro Biofuels and waste Wind

Electric vehicles need to come of age

© OECD/IEA 2012

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

50

100

150

200FCEV

Electricity

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Diesel hybrid

Gasoline hybrid

CNG/LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050

Pas

seng

er L

DV

sal

es (

mill

ion)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Manufacturers production/sales

Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)

mill

ion

sa

les/

yea

r

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)

mill

ion

sa

les/

yea

rTranslating targets into action

© OECD/IEA 2012

Government targets need to be backed by policy action

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Key global milestones along the way

© OECD/IEA 2012

2011 actual

2015 targets

2020 targets

Worldwide EV/PHEV sales

Near 50,000 1.5 million 7 million

Public charging pointsNear

25,000 3 million 10 million

Battery cost ($/kWh) $600-800Under$500

Under$300

Even the 2015 targets will be challenging

New technology vehicles and low carbon fuels are key

© OECD/IEA 2012

Low carbon vehicles and fuels become increasingly important after 2030, but need a foundation well before then to succeed.