the role of the building sector in the climate change ......the role of the building sector in the...
TRANSCRIPT
The role of the building sector in
the climate change mitigation
challenge
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz
director
Mainstreaming Building Energy Efficiency Codes
in Developing Countries
Nov 19 2009 World Bank Washington DC
3CSEP
Overview
Introduction the CC mitigation challenge
The global and regional importance of the
buildings sector in CC
How far can buildings take us
the risk of the lock-in effect
Summary ndash recommendations for codes
worldwide
The climate change mitigation
challenge
3CSEP
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35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Wo
rld
CO
2E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
)
In order to limit the impacts of CC GHG
emissions have to be reduced significantly
bull Stabilizing global mean temperature
requires a stabilization of GHG
concentrations in the atmosphere -gt
GHG emissions would need to peak and
decline thereafter (SPM 18 WG III)
bull The lower the target stabilisation level
limit the earlier global emissions have to
peak
bull Limiting increase to 32 ndash 4degC requires
emissions to peak within the next 55
yearsbull Limiting increase to 28 ndash 32degC requires
global emissions to peak within 25 years
bull Limiting global mean temperature
increases to 2 ndash 24degC above pre-
industrial levels requires global
emissions to peak within 15 years and
then fall to about 50 to 85 of current
levels by 2050
E 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
D 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
C 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
B 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
A2 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
A1 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
Stabilisation targets
Multigas and CO2 only studies combined
Based on SPM 7 WG III Emission pathways to mitigation scenarios
3CSEP
Probability distribution for the committed warming by
GHGs between 1750 and 2005
Shown are climate tipping elements and the temperature
threshold range
ldquoeven the most aggressive
CO2 mitigation steps as
envisioned now can only limit
further additions to the
committed warming but not
reduce the already committed
GHGs warming of 24
degrees Celsiusrdquo (Ramanathan and Feng 2008
Atmospheric Environment)
3CSEP
The later emissions peak the more
ambitious reductions needed
Source Meinshausen et al 2009
The role of the buildings sector
in CC mitigation global and
regional importance
3CSEP
GHG emissions from buildings in 2004
(in Gt CO2 equivalent)
Energy-related
direct CO2
3 Gt 28
Electricity-related
indirect CO2
56 Gt 53
total energy-related
CO2 86 Gt 81
CH4 04 Gt 4
N2O
01 Gt 1
Halocarbons
15 Gt 14
Building sector global importance
In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-
related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions
3CSEP
Buildings sector regional
importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at
approximately 13 of energy-related CO2
CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario
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The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
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Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
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0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
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Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
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ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
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Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
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The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
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2000
4000
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8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
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2018
2019
2020
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2022
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Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
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6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
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09
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Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
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Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
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Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
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6000
7000
8000
2005
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2011
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2025
2027
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2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
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2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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2016
2017
2018
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2024
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2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
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5000
60002005
2006
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Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Overview
Introduction the CC mitigation challenge
The global and regional importance of the
buildings sector in CC
How far can buildings take us
the risk of the lock-in effect
Summary ndash recommendations for codes
worldwide
The climate change mitigation
challenge
3CSEP
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Wo
rld
CO
2E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
)
In order to limit the impacts of CC GHG
emissions have to be reduced significantly
bull Stabilizing global mean temperature
requires a stabilization of GHG
concentrations in the atmosphere -gt
GHG emissions would need to peak and
decline thereafter (SPM 18 WG III)
bull The lower the target stabilisation level
limit the earlier global emissions have to
peak
bull Limiting increase to 32 ndash 4degC requires
emissions to peak within the next 55
yearsbull Limiting increase to 28 ndash 32degC requires
global emissions to peak within 25 years
bull Limiting global mean temperature
increases to 2 ndash 24degC above pre-
industrial levels requires global
emissions to peak within 15 years and
then fall to about 50 to 85 of current
levels by 2050
E 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
D 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
C 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
B 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
A2 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
A1 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
Stabilisation targets
Multigas and CO2 only studies combined
Based on SPM 7 WG III Emission pathways to mitigation scenarios
3CSEP
Probability distribution for the committed warming by
GHGs between 1750 and 2005
Shown are climate tipping elements and the temperature
threshold range
ldquoeven the most aggressive
CO2 mitigation steps as
envisioned now can only limit
further additions to the
committed warming but not
reduce the already committed
GHGs warming of 24
degrees Celsiusrdquo (Ramanathan and Feng 2008
Atmospheric Environment)
3CSEP
The later emissions peak the more
ambitious reductions needed
Source Meinshausen et al 2009
The role of the buildings sector
in CC mitigation global and
regional importance
3CSEP
GHG emissions from buildings in 2004
(in Gt CO2 equivalent)
Energy-related
direct CO2
3 Gt 28
Electricity-related
indirect CO2
56 Gt 53
total energy-related
CO2 86 Gt 81
CH4 04 Gt 4
N2O
01 Gt 1
Halocarbons
15 Gt 14
Building sector global importance
In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-
related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions
3CSEP
Buildings sector regional
importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at
approximately 13 of energy-related CO2
CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario
3CSEP
The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
3CSEP
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
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Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
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300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
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Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
The climate change mitigation
challenge
3CSEP
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Wo
rld
CO
2E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
)
In order to limit the impacts of CC GHG
emissions have to be reduced significantly
bull Stabilizing global mean temperature
requires a stabilization of GHG
concentrations in the atmosphere -gt
GHG emissions would need to peak and
decline thereafter (SPM 18 WG III)
bull The lower the target stabilisation level
limit the earlier global emissions have to
peak
bull Limiting increase to 32 ndash 4degC requires
emissions to peak within the next 55
yearsbull Limiting increase to 28 ndash 32degC requires
global emissions to peak within 25 years
bull Limiting global mean temperature
increases to 2 ndash 24degC above pre-
industrial levels requires global
emissions to peak within 15 years and
then fall to about 50 to 85 of current
levels by 2050
E 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
D 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
C 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
B 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
A2 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
A1 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
Stabilisation targets
Multigas and CO2 only studies combined
Based on SPM 7 WG III Emission pathways to mitigation scenarios
3CSEP
Probability distribution for the committed warming by
GHGs between 1750 and 2005
Shown are climate tipping elements and the temperature
threshold range
ldquoeven the most aggressive
CO2 mitigation steps as
envisioned now can only limit
further additions to the
committed warming but not
reduce the already committed
GHGs warming of 24
degrees Celsiusrdquo (Ramanathan and Feng 2008
Atmospheric Environment)
3CSEP
The later emissions peak the more
ambitious reductions needed
Source Meinshausen et al 2009
The role of the buildings sector
in CC mitigation global and
regional importance
3CSEP
GHG emissions from buildings in 2004
(in Gt CO2 equivalent)
Energy-related
direct CO2
3 Gt 28
Electricity-related
indirect CO2
56 Gt 53
total energy-related
CO2 86 Gt 81
CH4 04 Gt 4
N2O
01 Gt 1
Halocarbons
15 Gt 14
Building sector global importance
In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-
related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions
3CSEP
Buildings sector regional
importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at
approximately 13 of energy-related CO2
CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario
3CSEP
The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
3CSEP
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
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Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Wo
rld
CO
2E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
)
In order to limit the impacts of CC GHG
emissions have to be reduced significantly
bull Stabilizing global mean temperature
requires a stabilization of GHG
concentrations in the atmosphere -gt
GHG emissions would need to peak and
decline thereafter (SPM 18 WG III)
bull The lower the target stabilisation level
limit the earlier global emissions have to
peak
bull Limiting increase to 32 ndash 4degC requires
emissions to peak within the next 55
yearsbull Limiting increase to 28 ndash 32degC requires
global emissions to peak within 25 years
bull Limiting global mean temperature
increases to 2 ndash 24degC above pre-
industrial levels requires global
emissions to peak within 15 years and
then fall to about 50 to 85 of current
levels by 2050
E 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
D 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
C 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
B 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
A2 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
A1 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
Stabilisation targets
Multigas and CO2 only studies combined
Based on SPM 7 WG III Emission pathways to mitigation scenarios
3CSEP
Probability distribution for the committed warming by
GHGs between 1750 and 2005
Shown are climate tipping elements and the temperature
threshold range
ldquoeven the most aggressive
CO2 mitigation steps as
envisioned now can only limit
further additions to the
committed warming but not
reduce the already committed
GHGs warming of 24
degrees Celsiusrdquo (Ramanathan and Feng 2008
Atmospheric Environment)
3CSEP
The later emissions peak the more
ambitious reductions needed
Source Meinshausen et al 2009
The role of the buildings sector
in CC mitigation global and
regional importance
3CSEP
GHG emissions from buildings in 2004
(in Gt CO2 equivalent)
Energy-related
direct CO2
3 Gt 28
Electricity-related
indirect CO2
56 Gt 53
total energy-related
CO2 86 Gt 81
CH4 04 Gt 4
N2O
01 Gt 1
Halocarbons
15 Gt 14
Building sector global importance
In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-
related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions
3CSEP
Buildings sector regional
importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at
approximately 13 of energy-related CO2
CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario
3CSEP
The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
3CSEP
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
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Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Probability distribution for the committed warming by
GHGs between 1750 and 2005
Shown are climate tipping elements and the temperature
threshold range
ldquoeven the most aggressive
CO2 mitigation steps as
envisioned now can only limit
further additions to the
committed warming but not
reduce the already committed
GHGs warming of 24
degrees Celsiusrdquo (Ramanathan and Feng 2008
Atmospheric Environment)
3CSEP
The later emissions peak the more
ambitious reductions needed
Source Meinshausen et al 2009
The role of the buildings sector
in CC mitigation global and
regional importance
3CSEP
GHG emissions from buildings in 2004
(in Gt CO2 equivalent)
Energy-related
direct CO2
3 Gt 28
Electricity-related
indirect CO2
56 Gt 53
total energy-related
CO2 86 Gt 81
CH4 04 Gt 4
N2O
01 Gt 1
Halocarbons
15 Gt 14
Building sector global importance
In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-
related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions
3CSEP
Buildings sector regional
importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at
approximately 13 of energy-related CO2
CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario
3CSEP
The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
3CSEP
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
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Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
The later emissions peak the more
ambitious reductions needed
Source Meinshausen et al 2009
The role of the buildings sector
in CC mitigation global and
regional importance
3CSEP
GHG emissions from buildings in 2004
(in Gt CO2 equivalent)
Energy-related
direct CO2
3 Gt 28
Electricity-related
indirect CO2
56 Gt 53
total energy-related
CO2 86 Gt 81
CH4 04 Gt 4
N2O
01 Gt 1
Halocarbons
15 Gt 14
Building sector global importance
In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-
related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions
3CSEP
Buildings sector regional
importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at
approximately 13 of energy-related CO2
CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario
3CSEP
The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
3CSEP
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
The role of the buildings sector
in CC mitigation global and
regional importance
3CSEP
GHG emissions from buildings in 2004
(in Gt CO2 equivalent)
Energy-related
direct CO2
3 Gt 28
Electricity-related
indirect CO2
56 Gt 53
total energy-related
CO2 86 Gt 81
CH4 04 Gt 4
N2O
01 Gt 1
Halocarbons
15 Gt 14
Building sector global importance
In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-
related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions
3CSEP
Buildings sector regional
importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at
approximately 13 of energy-related CO2
CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario
3CSEP
The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
3CSEP
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
GHG emissions from buildings in 2004
(in Gt CO2 equivalent)
Energy-related
direct CO2
3 Gt 28
Electricity-related
indirect CO2
56 Gt 53
total energy-related
CO2 86 Gt 81
CH4 04 Gt 4
N2O
01 Gt 1
Halocarbons
15 Gt 14
Building sector global importance
In 2004 in buildings were responsible for app 13 of global energy-
related CO2 (incl indirect) and 23 of halocarbon emissions
3CSEP
Buildings sector regional
importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at
approximately 13 of energy-related CO2
CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario
3CSEP
The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
3CSEP
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Buildings sector regional
importanceIn 2030 the share of building-related emissions in global will stay at
approximately 13 of energy-related CO2
CO2 emissions including through the use of electricity A1B scenario
3CSEP
The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
3CSEP
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
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2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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2012
2013
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2017
2018
2019
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2022
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2024
2025
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2038
2039
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2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
3CSEP
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
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Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
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2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
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2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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2013
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2024
2025
2026
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2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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2018
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2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral
level in 2030 in different cost categories transition
economies
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
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Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
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2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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2018
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2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
0
05
1
15
2
25
3
35
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0
0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a
sectoral level in 2030 in different cost
categories in developing countries
Constructed based on Chapter 11 results
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
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2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
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2024
2025
2026
2027
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2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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2013
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2017
2018
2019
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2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
How far can buildings take us
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
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kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
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2028
2029
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2036
2037
2038
2039
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2041
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2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Few sectors can deliver the
magnitude of emission reduction
neededknow-how has recently developed that we can
build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 ndash 90
savings as compared to standard practice in all
climate zones (providing similar or increased
service levels)
Photos from Gunter Lang
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
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2022
2023
2024
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2037
2038
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2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
Buildings utilising passive solar
construction (ldquoPassivHausrdquo)
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Staacutevajiacuteciacute zaacutestavba Pasivniacute dům
ce
lkovaacute e
ne
rgie
[kW
hm
2a] Domaacuteciacute spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
Ohřev TUV
Vytaacutepěniacute
- 90
- 75
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
ldquoEU buildings ndash a goldmine for CO2 reductions energy security job
creation and addressing low income population
problemsrdquo
Source Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
More on Solanova wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
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2025
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2030
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2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
The Global Energy Assessment
Background and purpose The Global Energy Assessment aims at providing (a)
blueprint(s) for the world how energy-related social
environmental geopolitical and other challenges can be
addressed this century
We all know that buildings are the key pillar to such a
future but how much
GEA constructs new scenarios (complementing IPCC-
type scenarios) that attempt to take advantage of the
really large and novel opportunities in buildings hard-to-
model by existing modeling frameworks
UNEP SBCI is a partner to further GEA efforts in the
buildings scenarios (and WB is partner in GEA)
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
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2025
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2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
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7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
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2026
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2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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2013
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2017
2018
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2038
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2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Main philosophy and assumptions Assumes that the worldrsquos building stock will transform over to
todayrsquos known (and built) cutting edge in architecture
At the most affordable cost
At the natural rate of building construction and retrofit
Taking into account capacity and other limitations but assuming
ambitious and supportive (not financially but legally) policy
environment
The main pillars of the model are existing best practices
Best practice from and energy and INVESTMENT COST perspective
as well
The worldrsquos building stock is broken down by regions climate zones
and 3 building types
Model eradicates energy poverty well before 2050 ie everyone
has appropriate thermal comfort energy services by 2050
several scenarios planned
Very high efficiency with different modalities +building-integrated
renewables +behavioural change
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
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2031
2032
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2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 2yr retrofit rate
-65
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
Opportunity or risk
The size of the potential lock-in effect
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
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2035
2037
2039
2041
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2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
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2026
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2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
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2038
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2041
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2044
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2047
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2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-27
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 14yr retrofit rate
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
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2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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2018
2019
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2038
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2042
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2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEPKLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndash ENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG
V Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
235570 230784 228894
193335
171956
144538
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
H H NY H NYF
kJ
lm
3
H Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes H NY Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csereH NY F Homlokzati hőszigeteleacutes nyiacutelaacuteszaacuteroacute csere fűteacuteskorszerűsiacuteteacutes
Panelfeluacutejiacutetaacutesi programban reacuteszt vevő eacutepuumlletek fűteacutesi fajlagos hőfelhasznaacutelaacutesaacutenak alakulaacutesa
Szeacutekesfeheacutervaacuter
3 eacuteves aacutetlag korrigaacutelt fajlagos
20072008 eacutevi korrigaacutelt fajlagos
-18 -25 -36
Source Paacutejer Saacutendor SZEacutePHŐ Zrt KLIacuteMAVAacuteLTOZAacuteS - ENERGIATUDATOSSAacuteG ndashENERGIAHATEacuteKONYSAacuteG V
Nemzetkoumlzi Konferencia SZEGED 2009 aacuteprilis 16-17
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
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2030
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2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation 14 Retrofit exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-77
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
summation 30 retrofit rate substandard retrofit
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-42
Final thermal energy consumption in the
worldrsquos buildings by region 2005-2050 3yr retrofit rate suboptimal retrofit rate
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
TW
h
14 Rate Sub-standard Retrofit
14 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
20 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
20 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
30 Rate Sub-Standard Retrofit
30 Rate Exemplary Retrofit
The lock-in effect through substandard retrofit
different retrofit rates
Global total final thermal energy consumption in buildings
35
32
23
values of the lock-in effect represent the of 2005 values
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Non-OECD building thermal final energy
consumption 3 retrofit rate advanced know-
how
000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
-63
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
20 retrofit rate exemplary buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
-43
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
+60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumption
05 retrofit rate substandard retrofit buildings
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
+103
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Conclusions Buildings are key to climate change mitigation in each world region
Substantial opportunities exist as much as 77 of 2005 final
thermal energy consumption can be eliminated by 2050 by building
codes while living standards increase as BAU and energy poverty
eliminated
To reach ambitious values
Building codes need to be universal and fully implemented
Most advanced (low-cost) know-how needs to be mandated
Construction industry needs to gear up soon (in app a decade)
Codes need to cover major retrofit as well not only newbuild
2050 emissions extremely sensitive to retrofit rate 77 energy savings for
3 retrofit rate drops to 37 for 14 rate
Major lock-in risks exist
Suboptimal retrofit represents major climate lock-in risk
Present trends can lock in 23 ndash 35 of all 2005 emissions (increasing
achievable low levels by 37 - 152) for many decades
Suboptimal retrofits should not be supported rather wait if complex
deep retrofit is not possible yet
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
ldquoFrom today each new building
constructed in an energy-
wasting manner or retrofited
to a suboptimal level will lock
us into a high climate-
footprint futurerdquo
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
Thank you for your attention
Diana Uumlrge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP) CEU
http3csepceuhu wwwglobalenergyassessmentorg
Email vorsatzdceuhu
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
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1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
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2039
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2043
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TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
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9 000
10 000
2005
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2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
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Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
Supplementary slides
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
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2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Az uumlveghaacutezhataacutesuacute gaacutezok meacuterseacutekleacuteseacutenek 2030-ra
becsuumllt szektoronkeacutenti potenciaacutelja kuumlloumlnboumlző
koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutekban aacutetmeneti gazdasaacutegokban
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
1
Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport
Gton CO2eq
lt20 lt0 0-20 20-100
Cost categories (US$tCO2eq)
For the buildings forestry waste and transport sectors the potential is split into three cost categories at net negative costs at 0-20
US$tCO2 and 20-100 US$tCO2 For the industrial forestry and energy suppy sectors the potential is split into two categories at costs
below 20 US$tCO2 and at 20-100 US$tCO2
Koumlltseacutegkategoacuteriaacutek
Ipar Mezőgazdasaacuteg Energiaellaacutetaacutes Erdeacuteszet Hulladeacutek KoumlzlekedeacutesEacutepuumlletek
Az eacutepuumlletek erdeacuteszet hulladeacutek eacutes koumlzlekedeacutes teruumlletein 3 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva a potenciaacutel negatiacutev nettoacute koumlltseacuteg 0-20 US$tCO2 eacutes 20-
100 US$tCO2 Az ipar mezőgazdasaacuteg eacutes energiaellaacutetaacutes teruumlletein 2 kategoacuteriaacuteba van osztva 20 US$tCO2 alatt eacutes 20-100 US$tCO2
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes
probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol
nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a
zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi
gazdasaacutegi eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi
fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak
megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-
nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutek
Munkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg
fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok
Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of building
energy-efficiency programs (15)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (25)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (35)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (45)
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Quantified non-energy benefits of
building energy-efficiency programs (55)
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy taacutersadalmi gazdasaacutegi
eacutes koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi fontossaacutega
Az eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy kulcs az eacuteghajlatvaacuteltozaacutes probleacutemaacutejaacutenak megoldaacutesaacutehoz
Valoacutesziacutenűleg az egyetlen olyan teruumllet ahol nyertes-nyertes (win-win(-win)) inteacutezkedeacutesek a zoumlld szakpolitikaacutekMunkahelyteremteacutes egeacuteszseacuteguumlgy gazdasaacutegeacuteleacutenkiacuteteacutes uacutej uumlzleti
lehetőseacutegek szegeacutenyseacuteg csoumlkkenteacutese stb
A koumlrnyezetveacutedelmi hasznokon feluumll talaacuten meacuteg fontosabbak a gazdasaacutegi taacutersadalmi hasznok Vilaacutegszerte toumlbb eacutepuumlletenergiahateacutekonysaacutegi program eredmeacutenye
noumlvelte az orszaacuteg GDP-jeacutet akaacuter paacuter -kal is
Eacutevente valoacutesziacutenűleg toumlbbezer ember veszti eacuteleteacutet a magyarorszaacutegi energiaszegeacutenyseacutegnek koumlszoumlnhetően
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
A jelenlegi koumlltseacutegveteacutesi
struktuacutera főbb probleacutemaacutei az
eacutepiacuteteacutesuumlgy szempontjaacuteboacutel
Kulcsprobleacutema az energiaaacuterak taacutemogataacutesa
Gaacutezaacutertaacutemogataacutes oumlngoacutel
A szegeacutenyseacuteg megoldaacutesa helyett előmozdiacutetja eacutes konzervaacutelja azt
Hosszuacutetaacutevuacute eacutes veacutegleges megoldaacutes az eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny feluacutejiacutetaacutesa
A jelenlegi taacutemogataacutesi rendszerek kiszaacutemiacutethatatlanok szeacutetaproacutezottak
keveacutesseacute aacutetlaacutethatoacuteak eacutes ismertek a meguacutejuloacute forraacutesok sokszor
araacutenytalanul kedvezőbb taacutemogataacutesuacuteak a hateacutekonysaacuteggal szemben
Nem szabad kis megtakariacutetaacutesokkal megeleacutegedni
Panelprogram 10 ndash 30
Raacutezaacuter egy magas kibocsaacutetaacutesuacute paacutelyaacutera
Kizaacuterja az energiaszegeacutenyseacuteg tovaacutebbi csoumlkkenteacuteseacutet
Az eacutepuumlleteket csak mint egyseacuteges rendszereket szabad tekinteni
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Click to edit Master title style
ldquoEU-s eacutepuumlletek ndash aranybaacutenyaa CO2 csoumlkkenteacutese energiabiztonsaacuteg
munkahelyteremteacutes eacutes alacsony joumlvedelmű
lakossaacuteg problemai kezeleacutese szempontjaacuteboacutelrdquo
Forraacutes Claude Turmes (MEP) Amsterdam Forum 2006
Tovaacutebbi informaacutecioacute a Solanova-roacutel wwwsolanovaeu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before SOLANOVA
kW
hm
2a
Renewable Energy
Fossile Energy
-84
Előtte
Feluacutejiacutethatoacute energia
Fosszilis energia
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 1
Koumlzbeszerzeacutes zoumlldiacuteteacuteseBefekteteacutesi koumlltseacutegek helyett eacuteletciklus-koumlltseacutegek
minimalizaacutelaacutesa legyen a ceacutel
Osztraacutek eacutes egyeacuteb mintaacutek szociaacutelis eacutes koumlzeacutepuumlletekre passziacutevhaacutez-szabvaacuteny koumltelező
A koumlzszfeacutera peacuteldamutatoacute szerepe aacutellami elkoumltelezettseacuteg a koumlzeacutepuumlletaacutellomaacuteny radikaacutelis energetikai feluacutejiacutetaacutesaacuteraPPP konstrukcioacuteban ndash megteremti az
energiahateacutekonysaacutegi finansziacuterozaacutesi eacutes beruhaacutezaacutesi iparaacutegat
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Főbb javaslatok egy zoumlld(ebb)
koumlltseacutegveteacutes koncepcioacutejaacutera eacutes a
gazdasaacuteg fellendiacuteteacuteseacutere 2 Baacutermilyen kvoacutetakereskedelemből szaacutermazoacute beveacutetelt csak UumlHG
csoumlkkenteacutesi beruhaacutezaacutesra lehessen koumllteni pl Eacutepuumlletfeluacutejiacutetaacutes
Aacutetstruktuacuteraacutelni a koheacutezioacutes eacutes struktuacuteraacutelis alapokboacutel eacuterkező peacutenzek prioritaacutesait Minden beruhaacutezaacutesnaacutel megvizsgaacutelni hogy a legalacsonyabb
energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesuacute eacutes kibocsaacutejtaacutesuacute alternatiacutevaacutet mozdiacutetja-e elő eacutes ezt koumltelezőveacute tenni
Toumlbb beruhaacutezaacutest a felhasznaacuteloacutei oldalra kevesebbet az ellaacutetaacutesra
Elgondolkodtatoacute peacutelda Nabucco bdquoAz EU eacutepuumlleteiben a koumlltseacuteg-hateacutekony energiahateacutekonysaacutegi
beruhaacutezaacutesok 5oo millioacute koumlbmeacuteter foumlldgaacutezt takariacutetanaacutenak megrdquo [Eurima eacutes Ecofys 2009] Ez 5-szoumlr annyi mint amennyit a Nabucco szaacutelliacutetana
A Nabucco koumlltseacutege kb euro8 bln a deacuteli aacuteramlateacute gt euro10 bln Ez a peacutenz eleacuteg lenne hogy nagy hateacutekonysaacutegra feluacutejiacutetsuk ceacutelorszaacutegok (HuSkSloCz) teljes eacutepuumlletaacutellomaacutenyaacutenak 23-aacutet (50 taacutersfinansziacuterozaacutessal) [EurimaEcofy 2007]
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasznaacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben
2005-2050 Magas feluacutejiacutetaacutesi raacuteta (kb 2eacutev)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
TWh
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Aacutezsia
A teacuterfűteacutes eacutes hűteacutes veacutegső energiafelhasz-
naacutelaacutesa a vilaacuteg teacuterseacutegeiben 2005-2050 2eacutev feluacutejiacutetaacutesi araacuteny
-75
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Magyarorszaacuteg eacuteghajlatveacutedelmi
forgatoacutekoumlnyv koumlzeacutepuumlletek 2005 ndash 2030passziacutevhaacuteznorma gyorsiacutetott elterjedeacutese
BAU vs Passive accelerated scenario (GWh)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GW
h BAU
MIT Passive accelerated
68
Forraacutes
Katarina
Korytarova
draft
dissertation
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Example of savings by
reconstruction Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-9015 kWh(msup2a)over 150 kWh(msup2a)
Before reconstruction
Source Jan Barta Center for Passive Buildings wwwpasivnidomycz EEBW2006
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
What is a sustainable
level of retrofit
Ecofys (Hermelink
How deep to go) 2009 finds
For new buildings a primary energy level of appr 140 kWhm2a for space heat DHW household electricity and embodied energy ~ the primary energy requirement for passive houses
From an energy life-cycle perspective [Hermelink 2006] analyses which renovation level should be achieved in order to be better than a rebuild option He concludes that ldquotaking sustainability seriously a space heat consumption between 25 and 40 kWhm2a should be aimed atrdquo in renovation
= savings of 80 - 90
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
Characteristics of stabilisation
scenarios and the emission
reduction needs
Source IPCC AR4 WGIII Table SPM5
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
FrankfurtM Germany Sophienhof
FAAGABG Frankfurt Architect Fuessler
Blocks of Flats
160 dwellings
14 767 msup2
Passive House Technology
15 kwh msup2 per year
Extra costs
= 3-5 of the total costs
Payback = 9 ndash 10 years Can we afford this
copy OECDIEA 2009Source Jens Lausten IEA
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88
3CSEP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
60002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Axis
Tit
le
Non-OECD building thermal final energy consumption 14 retrofit suboptimal retrofit
levels
MAF TWhyr
LAC TWhyr
REF TWhyr
Asia TWhyr
+25
-88