the technical take - ocotber 22, 2013

7/27/2019 The Technical Take - Ocotber 22, 2013

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Report prepared by:

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT

North America Equity Strategist

Inside

Technical Commentary (Pages 2 9)

Technical Almanac Trading Ideas

(Pages 10 12)

Relative Strength Analysis (Pages 13

16)

Sentiment Indicators (Page 17)

Overbought/Oversold Stocks (Page 18)

Market Statistics (Page 19)

This Document is for distribution to Canadian

clients only.

Please refer to Appendix A in this report for

important information.

Volume 7 Highlights

Our call for short-term weakness has not materialized, and with the

recent breakout for the S&P/TSX Composite Index (S&P/TSX), we

are getting more constructive on the outlook for Canadian equities

The S&P/TSX is nearing a short-term overbought condition with its

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 63 (above 70 indicates

overbought), so we could see some near-term backing and filling inthe coming days. However, if the S&P/TSX holds above the previous

12,900 resistance (now support) level and the 50-day moving

average (MA), currently at 12,756, then we would likely become

more bullish on the S&P/TSX, as the index may finally be in a new

higher trading range.

With the S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index in a confirmed long-term

uptrend, and trading above its rising 50- and 200-day MAs, we

continue to favour this sector and recommend that investors

overweight it in their portfolios relative to the benchmark weight.

The S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) has been strong on the back of a

short-term resolution of the budget and debt limit impasse in

Washington. With these fiscal issues sidelined until early 2014 (the

debt limit is suspended until February 7, 2014), and the U.S. Federa

Reserve (Fed) likely to maintain its asset purchases until H1/14, we

believe the path of least resistance is to the upside.

The U.S. dollar index remains under pressure in part due to the

Washington budget/debt battle. The U.S. dollar index is finding

resistance around 80.75, which was support in June and August

Given this change of polarity and the U.S. dollar trading below key

MAs, the short-term outlook remains negative.

The short- and long-term trends remain negative for gold prices

Gold rallied strongly on October 17, due in part to its near oversold

condition as its RSI neared the 30 level. Gold prices could see some

additional near-term strength but we would look for upside to be

capped around the US$1,340/oz-US$1,350/oz level, which is the

intersection of the 50-day MA and its short-term downtrend.

In this weeks report we highlight Brookfield Asset Management

Inc. (BAMA-T) and Lam Research Corp. (LRCX-Q) as attractive

technical buy candidates, and recommend investors trim/sell Gap

Inc. (GPS-N).

October 22, 2013


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The Technical Take October 22, 2013

Page 2

Technical Commentary

S&P/TSX Composite Index

Our call for short-term weakness has not materialized, and with the recent breakout for the S&P/TSX Composite

Index (S&P/TSX), we are getting more constructive on the outlook for Canadian equities.

As weve highlighted a number of times in recent reports, the S&P/TSX was encountering stiff technical resistance

at 12,900, which has contained the S&P/TSX throughout 2013. However, following the positive development in

Washington to extend the debt limit date, and end the partial government shutdown, the S&P/TSX broke and heldabove 12,900 for two consecutive trading days, which is the minimum time needed to declare a valid breakout.

Other technical developments that increase the odds that the breakout could hold include: 1) key sectors such as

financials, energy and industrials remain technically strong and we see little evidence of a topping pattern in these

sectors; 2) the S&P/TSX is trading above its rising 50-day moving average (MA) and has been finding technical

support at the important MA on pullbacks since the summer (green arrows); 3) trading volume continues to expand

with the rising price trend, as seen by the rising On Balance Volume indicator (lower panel).

The S&P/TSX is nearing a short-term overbought condition with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 63

(above 70 indicates overbought), so we could see some near-term backing and filling in the coming days. However

if the S&P/TSX holds above the previous 12,900 resistance (now support) level and the 50-day MA, currently a

12,756, then we would likely become more bullish on the S&P/TSX, as the index may finally be in a new higher

trading range. In this scenario, we would target 13,500 as the next technical level for the S&P/TSX.


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Page 3

Canadian Sector Highlights

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at October 17, 2013.

Weekly Momentum:

Sector performance was mixed last week with the telecommunication services, information technology, consumer

staples and industrials sectors showing the strongest performance.

The telecom services sector is showing improved performance, with the sector near the top of the sector rankings in

three of the last six weeks.

Industrials remain very strong, as the sector has been near the top of the sector rankings model, in each of the last

six weeks.

The health care sector continues to weaken, following a strong H1/13, with the sector near the bottom of the sector

rankings in four of the last six weeks.

The materials sector remains weak, with the sector posting the weakest returns in five of the last six weeks.

Market Condition: The financials sector is currently overbought with an RSI level of 70.33.

Other:

The materials sector is the only sector below its 50- and 200-day MAs.

The telecom services and utilities sectors remain below their respective 200-day MAs.

Last Trend of Trend of RSI Market

Name Price 50 DMA 50 DMA 200 DMA 200 DMA 14 Day Condition Current 2 3 4 5 6

S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX 1102.89 1073.56 Uptrend 1110.45 Downtrend 60.80 Neutral 1 10 7 2 7 1

S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX 137.78 136.18 Uptrend 127.76 Uptrend 60.91 Neutral 2 8 9 4 8 10

S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX 2558.84 2488.99 Uptrend 2329.00 Uptrend 69.56 Neutral 3 4 1 11 6 8S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX 1787.34 1718.92 Uptrend 1676.47 Uptrend 67.17 Neutral 4 2 4 3 1 2

S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX 1953.69 1896.56 Uptrend 1835.28 Uptrend 70.33 Overbought 5 6 2 8 4 3

S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX 1756.80 1731.74 Uptrend 1866.23 Downtrend 58.14 Neutral 6 5 8 1 9 7

S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX 2810.09 2758.60 Uptrend 2723.42 Uptrend 62.03 Neutral 7 9 5 10 3 6

S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX 1408.38 1378.28 Uptrend 1243.35 Uptrend 60.57 Neutral 8 3 3 7 2 4

S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 12967.38 12746.49 Uptrend 12588.27 Uptrend 61.29 Neutral 9 7 6 6 5 5

S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX 1449.86 1407.43 Uptrend 1193.79 Uptrend 60.37 Neutral 10 1 10 5 10 9

S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX 2085.23 2177.09 D owntrend 2 399.21 D owntrend 38.25 Neutral 11 11 11 9 11 11

Ranking of Weekly Momentum


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Page 4

S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index

The S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index recently made a new price high, while its relative strength remains strong.

With the S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index in a confirmed long-term uptrend, and trading above its rising 50- and

200-day MAs, we continue to favour this sector and recommend that investors overweight it in their portfolios

relative to the benchmark weight.


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Page 5

S&P 500 Index

In The Technical Take report dated October 7 we stated that we see the potential for additional downside in thevery near-term, with the index pulling back to its trendline, which currently intersects at 1,665. This short-term calturned out to be accurate, as the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) temporarily broke down through its 50-day MA, andpulled back to its trendline. In fact, the S&P 500 broke down through its trendline for a few days, but recovered andhas been strong since, on the back of a short-term resolution of the budget and debit limit impasse in Washington.

With these fiscal issues sidelined until early 2014 (the debt limit is suspended until February 7), and the U.S

Federal Reserve (Fed) likely to maintain its asset purchases until H1/14, we believe the path of least resistance is tothe upside. The S&P 500 is now trading at a short-term resistance level of 1,730 to 1,740, which is the intersection of the mid-

September high and the upper trendline. We believe this high will be broken and expect the S&P 500 to continue itsrally in the coming weeks.

One concern is the negative trending MACD momentum indicator, which continues to make lower highs. Howeverif price trends remain bullish, the negative MACD divergence will play a lesser role in our technical outlook.

Interestingly, bullish investor sentiment barely budged over the last few weeks, as the American Association ofIndividual Investors (AAII) bullish sentiment index rose 5% to 46.28% for the week of October 17, while bearishsentiment declined from 33.58% to 24.92% (see page 17). Clearly, investors were seeing through the potential riskof a default.

The fiscal issues will resurface in early 2014, but for now, we remain bullish and recommend that investors buy thedips.


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Page 6

U.S. Sector Highlights

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at October 17, 2013.

Weekly Momentum:

The defensive utilities and consumer staples sectors outperformed last week. Utilities have shown improved

performance, with the sector near the top of the sector ranking in three of the last six weeks.

Industrials remain strong, with the sector near the top of the sector rankings in five of the last six weeks.

The consumer discretionary sector fell to bottom spot last week, which is notable given its strong performance over

2013.

Market Condition:

All sectors are neutrally ranked, with RSI readings between 30 and 70.

Other:

With the recent strength, all sectors are trading above their 50-day MAs.

The utilities and telecommunications sectors remain below their 50- and 200-day MAs.

Last Trend of Trend of RSI Market

Name Price 50 DMA 50 DMA 200 DMA 200 DMA 14 Day Condition Current 2 3 4 5 6

S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX 192.18 190.58 Uptrend 192.89 Downtrend 53.01 Neutral 1 9 2 2 11 10

S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX 423.19 415.21 Uptrend 409.56 Uptrend 59.44 Neutral 2 11 11 6 5 9

S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX 404.35 395.41 Uptrend 372.18 Uptrend 56.57 Neutral 3 10 3 1 1 3S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX 278.74 270.25 Uptrend 256.89 Uptrend 62.13 Neutral 4 5 10 3 8 2

S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX 153.64 150.98 Uptrend 155.82 Downtrend 53.32 Neutral 5 8 6 11 4 11

S&P 500 INDEX 1719.67 1678.72 Uptrend 1606.57 Uptrend 60.60 Neutral 6 7 7 7 6 8

S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX 623.07 604.83 Uptrend 587.63 Uptrend 62.96 Neutral 7 4 5 10 10 7

S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX 526.31 517.79 Uptrend 495.66 Uptrend 59.18 Neutral 8 6 4 8 9 5

S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX 605.62 584.97 Uptrend 549.21 Uptrend 63.32 Neutral 9 1 9 9 7 1

S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX 272.04 262.56 Uptrend 252.02 Uptrend 58.56 Neutral 10 2 8 5 3 6

S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX 484.74 472.74 Uptrend 439.98 Uptrend 57.65 Neutral 11 3 1 4 2 4

Ranking of Weekly Momentum


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Page 7

U.S. S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index

In The Technical Take report dated October 7, 2103 we stated that we see the potential for a technical bounce inthe S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index but recommend that investors look to reduce exposure in the sector onstrength.

We believed the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index would rally off its 200-day MA, which is exactly what hasoccurred over the last week, with the index up 3.5%.

The sector is now coming up against technical resistance around 430, while its relative strength remains weak. We reiterate what we said on October 7: reduce exposure into strength and redeploy funds into the industrials

financials and information technology sectors.


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Intermarket Picture

U.S. Dollar IndexThe U.S. dollar index remains under pressure in part due to the Washington budget/debt battle. The

U.S. dollar index is finding resistance around 80.75, which was support in June and August. Given this change of

polarity and the U.S. dollar trading below key MAs, the short-term outlook remains negative, and we see the U.S. dollar

index possibly retesting key support at 79.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The 10-year U.S. Treasury remains range-bound between 2.45% and 2.90%, which we

expect to continue in the coming weeks and possibly longer. We believe the next major catalyst for Treasuries will be the

Fed taper, which we believe could occur in Q1/14. Near-term, we note that the 10-Year Treasury yield hit resistance at

the 50-day MA, and we could see the 10-year Treasury retest its support around 2.45%.


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Page 9

GoldThe short- and long-term trends remain negative for gold prices. Gold rallied strongly on October 17, due in part to

its near oversold condition as its RSI neared the 30 level. Gold prices could see some additional near-term strength but

we would look for upside to be capped around the US$1,340/oz-US$1,350/oz level, which is the intersection of the 50-day

MA and its short-term downtrend.

Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices continue to trend lower and seem set to retest their support around

US$98/bbl which has been our technical target for some time. Should this forecast unfold, we would then expect a bounce

off this support level.


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Page 10

Technical Almanac Trading Ideas

Gap Inc. (GPS-N) Published October 11, 2013

This week we are highlighting the technical breakdown of Gap Inc. from our breakout/breakdown model*. GPS was a strong outperformer in the 1H/13, as the stock rallied from the low $30s up to its peak of $46 in August

However, this trend has reversed and we would recommend investors sell/trim their positions as more downside maybe possible. First, we note the uptrend and 50-day moving average (MA) have been broken on the downsideSecond, the stock formed a head and shoulders top over the summer, and with this weeks technical breakdownbelow its neckline at $40, the pattern has been completed, with measuring implications down to $34. Finally, we noteGPSs weakening relative strength, as its relative uptrend was broken in August (lower panel).

We see the potential for further downside in GPS, possibly down to $34, and therefore we would recommendinvestors look to sell/trim the position. Following the recent sell-off, the stock is near an oversold condition, so wecould see a short-term oversold bounce in the stock, which we would use to exit the position.

NOTE: *Our technical breakout/breakdown model is based on a weekly screen of the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite for

stocks making a new high/low over the last 90 days on volume greater than +1 standard deviation from the 90-day average

volume.


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Page 11

Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (BAMA-T) Published October 16, 2013

We are following up on our March 27, 2013 buy recommendation on Brookfield Asset Management Inc. after thestock made a new price high last week.

In our March 27th report we recommended investors buy the stock around the $36 level, as it was oversold andapproaching technical support at its 200-day moving average (MA) and uptrend line. The share price is up 9.5%since then and we see the potential for an additional 8% upside in the coming months.

Our $43 technical price target is derived by measuring the recent trading range (BAM.A has traded between roughly$35 and $39, resulting in a $4 range), and projecting that range forward from the breakout level ($39).

We would employ a stop loss just below $37, which is the convergence of the uptrend and the 50- and 200-day MAs.


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Page 12

Lam Research Corp. (LRCX-Q) Published October 18, 2013

From our breakout/breakdown model* this week we are highlighting the technical breakout of Lam Research Corp. We are bullish on the semiconductor space, and LRCX is a standout candidate within the industry. The stock is

trading in a well-defined upward channel and above its rising 50- and 200-day moving averages (MA). LRCXsrelative strength is impressive, as the stock continues to outperform the broader market, and has made successivelyhigher relative highs (lower panel).

Given LRCXs strong technical trends we are buyer of the stock, but note that following its recent strength, the stockcould pullback in the short term. We would buy the stock on any weakness, with a preferred entry point being apullback to its 50-day MA around $50. We recommend employing a stop loss just below its 200-day MA at $45.60.

NOTE: *Our technical breakout/breakdown model is based on a weekly screen of the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite for

stocks making a new high/low over the last 90 days on volume greater than +1 standard deviation from the 90-day average

volume.


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Page 13

Relative Strength Analysis

S&P 500

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at October 18, 2013

0.30

0.31

0.32

Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13

S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.227

0.261

0.295

Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13

S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.270

0.281

0.292


S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.30

0.33

0.37


S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.22

0.23

0.24


S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.22

0.24

0.25


S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.15

0.17

0.20


S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.15

0.16

0.16


S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.35

0.36

0.38


S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.35

0.41

0.46


S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P 500

Cyclicals18APR13 - 18OCT1318OCT10 - 18OCT13

The informat ion

technology sector

broke its intermedia

downt rend and is

t rading range-boun

in the sho rt - term.

The industr ia l

sectors lon g-term

downt rend has

recent ly been broke

due to i t s improv ing

short - term trends.

The consumer

discret ionary secto

remains in a long-

term relat ive uptren

Short - term trend is

under pressure.

The mater ials secto

remains in a long-

term relat ive

downt rend.

Improving on a sho

term basis.

The energy sectorremains in a long-

term relat ive

downt rend.

Short - term trend is

range-bound.


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Page 14


0.23

0.26

0.28


S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.14

0.16

0.18


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.28

0.32

0.37


S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.09

0.10

0.12


S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.11

0.13

0.16


S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.24

0.26

0.28


S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.16

0.16

0.17


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.34

0.35

0.36


S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.09

0.10

0.11


S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.11

0.12

0.14


S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P 500

18OCT10 - 18OCT13 18APR13 - 18OCT13

Defensives

The consumer

staples sector bro

i ts long-term supp

as a result of shor

term weakness.

The financial secto

long-term uptrend

under pressure.

The sectors short

term downtrend mhave reversed.

The health care

sector remains in

long-term uptrend

mak ing new highs

2013.

The telecom secto

recent ly made new

long-term relat ive

lows.

Short - term trends

remain weak.

The ut i l i t ies secto

mak ing new long-

term relat ive lows

The sectors short

term trends remai

weak.


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Page 15

S&P/TSX Composite


0.01

0.01

0.01


S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.071

0.092

0.113


S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.096

0.104

0.112


S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.01

0.01

0.02


S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.14

0.14


S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.10

0.12

0.14


S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.16

0.25

0.34


S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.16

0.18

0.19


S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.21

0.22

0.23


S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.21

0.23

0.25


S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

Cyclicals18APR13 - 18OCT1318APR13 - 18OCT13

The consumer

discret ionary sec

remains in a long

and sh ort - term

relat ive up trend.

The informat ion

technologysecto

longer- term trend

improv ing.

The sector is t rad

range-bound in th

short - term.

The industr ia l

sectors long-term

trend is bul l ish.

The materials

sectors t rend is w

on a long- and sh

term basis.

The energy secto

broke its long -terdownt rend in Jun

The sector is t rad

range-bound in th

short - term.

18OCT10 - 18OCT13


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Page 16


0.12

0.17

0.21


S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.12

0.14

0.16


S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.03

0.08

0.12


S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.06

0.08

0.10


S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.15

0.18


S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.18

0.20

0.21


S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.14

0.15

0.15


S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.09

0.10

0.12


S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.08

0.09

0.10


S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.15

0.16


S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

18APR13 - 18OCT13 18APR13 - 18OCT13

Defensive

The consumer

staples sectors loand sh ort - term

relat ive trends are

posit ive.

The ut i l i t ies secto

cont inues to mak

new relat ive lows

The health care

sector remains in

st rong long - and

short - term uptren

The telecom sect

recent ly broke its

long-term relat ive

suppor t .

The sectors shor

term trend is

improv ing.

The f inancial sect

remains in a long

term relat ive uptr

The sector is

reaching new rela

h ighs in the shor t

term.

18OCT10 - 18OCT13

Defensives


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Page 17

Sentiment Indicators


Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago13.22 . 13.78 0.87 . 1.00

Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago

Bulls 46.28 45.52 48.94 70 69 77

Bears 24.92 24.58 18.30

Bulls - Bears 21.36 20.94 30.64

VIX CBOE Put/Call

% of Stocks Above

200-day MA

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

AAII Investor Sentiment: Bulls Minus Bears

Impasse in Washington had little

impact on investor sentiment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

NYSE % of Stocks Above 200-day MA

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

Volatility (VIX) Index

VIX continues to find resistancearound the 20 level

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio 5-Day MA


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Page 18

Overbought/Oversold Stocks

S&P 500


S&P/TSX Composite


Most Overbought Most OversoldName RSI (14D) Name RSI (14D)

WYNN RESORTS LTD 79.28 TERADATA CORP 11.71

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO 77.57 CITRIX SYSTEMS INC 18.21

MOLEX INC 77.25 J.C. PENNEY CO INC 22.72

EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP 76.93 STANLEY BLACK & DECKER INC 22.91

PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES CO 76.12 GAP INC/THE 26.99

NEWFIELD EXPLORATION CO 75.32 FLIR SYSTEMS INC 29.68

WASHINGTON POST-CLASS B 74.07 NETAPP INC 30.70

MCKESSON CORP 73.98 RED HAT INC 31.19

FEDEX CORP 73.85 CABLEVISION SYSTEMS-NY GRP-A 32.00

SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY 73.77 CARNIVAL CORP 32.79

WHOLE FOODS MARKET INC 73.50 YUM! BRANDS INC 33.32

EOG RESOURCES INC 73.19 RALPH LAUREN CORP 34.30

GARMIN LTD 72.93 ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO-CL A 35.41PERRIGO CO 72.83 NEWMONT MINING CORP 35.75

WPX ENERGY INC 72.43 EXELON CORP 36.07

Most Overbought Most Oversold

Name RSI (14D) Name RSI (14D)

PETROMINERALES LTD 89.17 MANITOBA TELECOM SVCS INC 18.68

GENIVAR INC 82.26 REITMANS (CANADA) LTD-A 22.61

BANK OF MONTREAL 79.64 PRETIUM RESOURCES INC 25.05

METHANEX CORP 76.67 ELDORADO GOLD CORP 25.57

FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HLDGS LTD 75.88 DUNDEE PRECIOUS METALS INC 27.42

GENWORTH MI CANADA INC 74.66 DETOUR GOLD CORP 28.74

ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD -B 74.55 TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES LTD 29.09

DOLLARAMA INC 72.33 CAMECO CORP 30.12

WHITECAP RESOURCES INC 72.25 FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP 31.00

ATLANTIC POWER CORP 71.50 WAJAX CORP 32.09

TRANSCONTINENTAL INC-CL A 71.16 SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES 32.28

ROYAL BANK OF CANADA 70.87 FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC 32.50

TRANSGLOBE ENERGY CORP 70.82 RIO ALTO MINING LTD 32.74

ALLIED PROPERTIES REAL ESTAT 70.81 LIGHTSTREAM RESOURCES LTD 32.89CGI GROUP INC - CLASS A 69.43 CANEXUS CORP 32.93


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Page 19

Market Statistics

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized. As at October 17, 2013

Region Index Last 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

U.S. S&P 500 1721.54 1.66 0.93 2.37 20.65 17.78 13.52 12.84

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15373.83 1.13 -1.50 -1.12 16.73 12.83 11.41 11.56

Dow Jones Transportation 6736.87 1.36 1.46 3.53 26.27 30.14 12.59 12.66Dow Jones Utilities 487.60 -0.21 1.90 -2.72 7.86 0.59 6.35 6.63

Nasdaq Composite 3839.43 2.05 2.46 6.31 27.10 23.63 15.84 17.53

Russell 2000 1092.42 2.22 2.51 4.86 28.71 29.75 15.85 15.74

Russell 1000 Value 871.27 1.71 0.89 1.65 21.63 19.84 13.60 11.54

Russell 1000 Growth 800.35 1.78 1.35 4.44 21.58 18.78 14.30 15.57

Canada S&P/TSX Composite 12957.21 1.89 1.07 3.20 4.32 4.09 0.95 6.29

S&P/TSX 60 744.82 1.87 0.99 3.15 4.37 4.58 0.76 5.27

S&P/TSX Smallcap 575.56 1.93 0.51 4.93 -0.83 -3.83 -4.37 8.33

S&P/TSX Venture 925.88 1.11 0.85 3.57 -22.76 -27.66 -19.71 -0.06

International DAX 8846.00 1.38 2.43 6.67 15.67 19.08 10.69 12.99FTSE 100 6571.59 1.99 -0.17 -0.20 11.21 10.96 4.77 10.05

Nikkei 225 14467.14 3.91 1.92 -0.20 40.32 65.63 15.36 10.90

Hang Seng 23228.33 0.26 -0.37 8.06 1.93 7.84 -0.94 9.67

Shanghai 2193.07 -0.11 0.14 7.02 -3.55 3.94 -9.69 2.54

MSCI World 1558.19 1.58 1.49 4.45 17.32 17.22 8.68 10.56

MSCI EAFE 1836.02 1.44 2.12 6.62 14.52 17.79 4.04 7.82

MSCI Emerging Markets 290.35 1.36 3.55 7.28 3.87 10.20 n/a n/a

S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Discretionary 485.21 1.48 0.84 3.13 28.92 29.29 21.04 23.31

Comsumer Staples 421.53 1.58 0.15 -0.97 17.30 13.09 12.72 11.38

Energy 623.49 2.47 1.53 3.20 16.83 10.79 12.06 11.38

Financials 278.75 2.46 1.20 1.19 26.04 27.11 13.07 5.96

Health care 605.73 2.63 1.60 5.17 30.88 26.62 18.82 14.52

Industrials 404.59 0.44 -0.18 4.89 22.99 24.11 13.22 13.44

Information Technology 529.17 1.09 1.08 2.22 13.47 8.27 10.73 15.23

Materials 270.24 2.00 1.77 7.36 14.49 13.72 8 .35 12.12

Telecommunications 151.59 2.21 0.15 -4.01 5.42 1.19 8.38 9.22

Utilities 191.81 -0.22 1.79 -3.00 8.31 1.70 5.93 6.50

S&P/TSX Sectors Consumer Discretionary 1410.91 1.28 1.23 6.06 32.06 37.12 10.57 10.91

Comsumer Staples 2568.78 1.44 3.28 -0.28 21.10 28.98 16.74 14.27

Energy 2815.23 2.44 1.40 1.66 5.94 1.97 -0.54 5.49

Financials 1957.31 2.34 1.83 5.09 11.34 15.79 6.50 6.40Health care 1456.69 3.09 2.56 13.52 60.19 58.83 46.51 40.70

Industrials 1798.34 0.36 3.22 2.69 19.94 25.17 12.00 13.66

Information Technology 139.54 2.06 -2.29 12.37 30.11 38.77 -12.04 -10.46

Materials 2034.05 1.28 -3.90 -0.86 -30.11 -34.49 -17.41 3.05

Telecommunications 1110.58 -0.11 2.30 3.74 3.20 5.20 8.25 6.37

Utilities 1762.27 2.48 2.48 -5.69 -8.81 -8.86 -1.65 2.68


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Appendix A Important Disclosures

General Research Disclaimer

The statements and statistics contained herein are based on material believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed to be accurate or

complete. This report is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any

investment fund, security or other product. Particular investment, trading, or tax strategies should be evaluated relative to each

individuals objectives. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance.

This document does not provide individual financial, legal, investment or tax advice. Please consult your own legal, investment and tax

advisor. All opinions and other information in this document are subject to change without notice. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its

affiliates and related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.

TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and/or its affiliated persons or companies may hold a position in the securities mentioned, including

options, futures and other derivative instruments thereon, and may, as principal or agent, buy or sell such securities. Affiliated persons

or companies may also make a market in and participate in an underwriting of such securities.

Technical Research Disclaimer

The opinions expressed herein reflect a technical perspective and may differ from fundamental research on these issuers. Fundamenta

research can be obtained through your TD Wealth advisor or on the Markets and Research site within WebBroker.

The technical research opinions contained in this report are based on historical technical data and expectations of the most likely

direction of a market or security. No guarantee of that outcome is ever implied.

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proprietary websites for all eligible clients to access by password and we distribute the information to our sales personnel who then may

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Analyst Certification

The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report hereby certify that (i) the recommendations and

technical opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about any and all of the

securities or issuers discussed herein, and (ii) no part of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,

related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report.

Conflicts of Interest

The Portfolio Advice & Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report may own securities of the issuer(s) discussed in this

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Corporate Disclosure

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Fund), TD Waterhouse Private Investment Counsel Inc., TD Wealth Private Banking (offered by The Toronto-Dominion Bank) and

TD Wealth Private Trust (offered by The Canada Trust Company).

The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research team is part of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc., a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion

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Trade-mark Disclosures

Bloomberg and Bloomberg.com are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P., a Delaware limited partnership, or its

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TD Securities is the trade name which TD Securities Inc. and TD Securities (USA) LLC. jointly use to market their institutional equity

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TD Securities is a trade-mark of The Toronto-Dominion Bank representing TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC, TD Securities

Limited and certain corporate and investment banking activities of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.

All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

/The TD logo and other trade-marks are the property of the Toronto-Dominion Bank or a wholly-owned subsidiary, in

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the technical take - ocotber 22, 2013

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