PHOTO CREDIT: WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE, FLICKR

THE TRANSFORMATIVE ROLE OF LIVESTOCK IN

THE DEVELOPING WORLDChristopher Delgado

Sr. Fellow, WRIILRI@40 Event

Des Moines, Iowa, October 15, 2014

THE NATURAL RESOURCE AND

BEHAVIORAL CONTEXTS

Photo credits: Safla Osman “Chuanr on Fire” Creative Commons License and cattle in Ethiopia, James Anderson, WRI

LOOKING FORWARD, LIVESTOCK’S ROLE IN DEVELOPING WORLD IS DETERMINED BY…

• Demand and supply opportunities and challenges for livestock…

BUT ALSO:• Demand and supply issues for

competing users of natural resources: crops, forests, etc.

• Land use is now a trade-off; no more “free” land and water…

• The “carbon budget” also entering…

Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr

CHALLENGES FOR LIVESTOCK ON THE DEMAND SIDE OF RESOURCE USE

• Growing food and nutritional unmet needs and imbalances

• Rising demand for animal protein• Rising awareness of GHG impacts

in ag & land use• Timber and pulp demand, and

forest carbon loss adds to this• Developments for biofuels and

food loss also relevant

Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr

Photo credit: Safla Osman “Chuanr on Fire” (Beijing street food) Creative Commons License

DIET CHANGE IN EMERGING COUNTRIES: CHANGING MEAT & MILK PRODUCTION

• Developing Countries accounted for 1/3 of world’s meat + ¼ of milk in 1982/1984

• Now they acount for more than 2/3 of meat and more than 1/2 of milk

NET VALUE OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 1987-2012

Global 1987 Global 2012 Asia 1987 Asia 20120

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

LivestockCrops

Source: FAOStat3

(in $2004/06 billions )

World Food $ over 35 Years• Rapid Growth• Asian Share Growing• Livestock Share Growing

CAN WE MEET CONTINUED HIGH DEMAND TO 2050 FOR MEAT, MILK AND FISH?

BY 2050:• 9.6 billion people• 70% urban-diet shift• 70% more calories• 2x as much dairy• 1.5x more cereals• 2x as much meat

Photo credit: Mondongo, Flickr

https://www.flickr.com/photos/51378257@N00/11168801095/; figures are from WRI, WRR 2013

PROBLEM: WOOD DEMAND GROWING EVEN FASTER (X 5-6) THAN FOOD

• By 2050, wood removals projected to triple

• Pulp demand going down in U.S. and Europe

• But pulp & timber demand soaring in developing countries

• Source: WWF Living Forests

CHALLENGES FOR LIVESTOCK ON THE SUPPLY SIDE OF RESOURCE USE

• Production growth is keeping up only at expense of clearing more land – need 1/3 more than 42kg/yr avg yield

growth of cereals of last 40 years to avoid need for new cereals land next 40 years!

• Crop & pasture degradation• High GHG emissions of ruminants• Blamed for deforestation

Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr

AGRICULTURAL & PASTURE LAND DEGRADATION

• 25% of all ag land severely degraded

• Another 8% moderately degraded• Growing annually—how much?• Overgrazing a major factor• Cost in terms of reduced ag

production of 3-7%• Photo credit: CIFOR, Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/cifor/8636677394• Figures on extent of degradation are from FAO, SOLAW 2011.• Cost in reduced productivity: 3 - 7% of agricultural production across 7 widely spread developing countries from Berry, Olsen and Campbell. 2003 (Global

Mechanism).

AGRICULTURE & LAND USE = 24% OF ALL GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS IN 2010

Livestock & manure =• 30% of direct ag emissions• 7 % of all global GHGs• Up to 14.5% if livestock

related land use change is counted as livestock caused

• Ruminants = 80% of livestock GHG issue (Beef= 6 X as many GHG/protein as chicken, eggs or pork)

LIVESTOCK WIDELY BLAMED AS “DRIVER” OF DEFORESTATION WHEN MEANING IS NOT CLEAR

Source: G. Kissinger et al, Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation: Synthesis Report for Policymakers , 7 Sept. 2012

Photo: J. Anderson, WRICrop &Live-stock

PROBLEM: DEFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION

• “Deforestation” means recently cleared land will not be allowed to return to forest– Global net deforestation 2000 to 2009 at

5.2 M ha/yr (FAO)

• “Degradation” means trees are removed– About 13 M (FAO) – 20 M (UMD) ha/yr

loss in tree cover = “Gross Deforestation” (FAO) or (gross) Tree Cover Loss (UMD)

THE (ACTUAL) DRIVERS OF FOREST DEGRADATION (CUTTING TREES)

Source: G. Kissinger et al, Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation: Synthesis Report for Policymakers , 7 Sept. 2012

Livestock

Charcoal

Timber

THE ROLE OF LIVESTOCK IN SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS FOR

THE EVOLVING NATURAL RESOURCE AND BEHAVIORAL

CONTEXT

Photo: Loess Plateau, Erick Fernandes, World Bank

INCORPORATING THE POWER OF LIVESTOCK FOR MORE SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

• Invest in raising animal, pasture, crop, and forest productivity and resilience

• Address rising GHG problems, including of livestock

• Protect forests • Restore productive landscapes• Promote the changes needed for

improving market access

Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr

SOLUTION: INVESTMENTS IN R&D (EXAMPLES)

• Productivity – Animal genetics, incl. traits like disease and heat resistance– Liming and forage legumes in Latin America– Yield increases for crops help livestock directly and indirectly– Animal health interventions/risk mitigation– Importance of new biological sciences and technologies

• Natural resource management– Reducing GHG/unit of livestock output through management/feeding– Rotational grazing– Alternate and wetting of rice

• Vehicles:– CGIAR public sector investment– Strengthening national systems– PPP

Photo credit: World Resources Institute, Flickr

INSIGHTS FROM HIGH REGIONAL VARIATION IN Kg CO2e / Kg BEEF PRODUCTION

N. Amer

W. Euro

E. Euro

SS Africa LAC S. Asia

E. & SE.

Asia

kgCO2e 29 18 14 60 72 77 47

% from Enteric

CH438% 33% 36% 68% 33% 65% 60%

Note: Other sources include manure, feed production related, land use change, energy, and post-farm. Major differences come from differences in production systems, feed quality, herd management, and manure management.

Source: FAO (Gerber et al. 2013)

INTENSIFYING LIVESTOCK & CROPS REQUIRES PROTECTING FORESTS: E.G. BRAZIL’S AMAZON

SINCE 2004, USING REMOTE SENSING

Source: J. Assuncao and T. Heller (2014)

SOLUTION: RESTORING 150 M HA OF DEGRADED AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES BY 2030

Basically Two Approaches:• Capital & skill intensive development

projects– e.g. China’s Loess plateau watershed rehab

projects– Maybe 1 M ha/year in new projects

• Labor natural regeneration– 9 M ha a year in new area quite feasible

Both require livestock changes at landscape level

SOLUTION: LIVESTOCK IN RESTORING PRODUCTIVE AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES: EXAMPLE FROM CHINA’S LOESS PLATEAU

Source: World Bank project completion evaluations of the Loess Plateau Watershed Habilitation Projects I and II, 1999 and 2005.

1990

2012

Terracing; planting forage, fruit trees and shrubs; cut/carry & confinement of goats; cashmere and dairy introduced, huge success

Free ranging of goats on steep slopes was big part of the problem; not much other livestock due to absence of feed

LOESS PLATEAU: GOOD PRACTICE FOR AN INTENSIVE AG LANDSCAPE APPROACH

2 Chinese Government /World Bank projects started in 1994, with $491M of investment, focused on 400,000 km2 over ten years, 20% internal rate of return

Rate for return for livestock component was 27%, highest of all activities

Per-capita incomes increase by ~190%, Average grain yields increase by 62% in project areas in 10 years

Overall soil erosion down by 60-100 Mt per year; huge favorable impact on Yellow River

Mitigation: 2.5 Mt of CO2e sequestered annually from reduced soil loss + added biomass

SOURCE: World Bank project completion evaluations of the Loess Plateau Watershed Habilitation Projects I and II, 1999 and 2005. Photos Till Niermann, GNU free documentation License v1.2 (1990) and Erick Fernandes (2012)

SOLUTION: LIVESTOCK IN FARMER-MANAGED NATURAL REGENERATION OF

TREES WITHIN CROP FIELDS

• Big success in Sahel– Costs on order of $20/ha/yr of non-farmer

total investment over 30 years plus farmer labor– Tree shade and leaf/root fertilization made

retention of less vulnerable livestock (and thus manure) on crop fields feasible; also some feeding ops with crops

– Increased returns presently on order of $180/ha/year all activities

• Potential for 300 M ha in AfricaPhoto credit: Chris Reij, World Resources Institute

NIGER SHOWS A WAY FOR 300 M HA IN AFRICA(EVEN OUTSIDE SPECIFIC PROJECTS)

Source: WRI analysis using the following datasets: Protected areas: IUCN and UNEP. 2013. The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). Cambridge, UK: UNEP-WCMC. Croplands: Fritz, S. and L. See. 2013. Global Hybrid Cropland. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA and IFPRI. Precipitation isohyets: FAO/UNEP Desertification and Mapping Project. 1986. Africa Mean Annual Rainfall. Geneva, Switzerland: UNEP/GRID.

Impact for Niger Zinder case from worldagroforestry.org

Maradi and Zinder Provinces1980s

2013

1970’s/1980’s zone of increasing marginalization, declining crop yields, decreasing viability of livestock keeping

Now 5 million ha of fields restored Implementation: foreign NGO, then

“know how” spread by farmers, rural code reformed 1993 for rights to trees

Impact: Million rural households; herds sedentarized, additional 500 000 t of cereals per year feeding 2.5 m people and extra US$250 million in farm income

IMPROVING THE CONTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK THROUGH IMPROVED TRADE

• Global meat trade has grown 40% in last 10 years• Yet only 1/10 of world meat (by vol.) is traded;

compare to 1/3 for fish• Concentration of global supply chain: top 10 had

$200 billion revenue in 2013 and heavy BRIC involvement

• High value market access depends now on sanitary compliance; much cheape rin Niger (ex) than financial hedges of risk

• GHG reduction may be future condition for supplying to high value chains

Photo credit: Mondongo, Flickr

https://www.flickr.com/photos/51378257@N00/11168801095/; figures are from lChapter 3, New Climate Economy Report. The global Commission on the Economy and Climate, Sept. 16, 2014

Source: Ethiopia, Aaron Minnick, WRI

• Critical global need for restoration of productive landscapes

• Livestock cannot be considered apart from the larger landscape b/c of the many negative externalities involved

• Livestock is also one of the very few growing income sources for smallholder involvement in restoring landscapes at scale

• Sustainable transformation of farming requires proactive livestock interventions in a landscape approach

• Rapid changes driven by the Global South will continue

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS ON ROLE OF LIVESTOCK IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES