The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economicswww.td.com/economics

April 8, 2011

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

United States• ItwasaveryquietweekforU.S.datareleases,buttherewasplentytodigestonthemacroeconomicpolicyfront,

bothdomesticallyandabroad.• UnsuccessfuldiscussionsregardingtheU.S.budget,agrowingdivideattheFed,andthefirst interestratehike

since2008bytheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB),ledtohigherU.S.TreasuryyieldsacrossthematuritycurveandtoafurtherweakeningoftheU.S.dollarvis-à-visitsmaincrosses.

• TheECBmovewasareminderthatinterestratesareheadedinonlyonedirectionanditwon’tbelongbeforeothercentralbanksinadvancedeconomiessuchasCanadaandtheU.K.followsuit.

Canada• TheBankofCanada’sBusinessOutlookSurveyindicatedthattheinflationexpectationsofbusinesseshaveturned

upwards,whilemorefirmsappeartobefacingincreasedcapacitypressures.Ourviewoninflationandthedirectiononmonetarypolicyremainsunchanged.Theincreaseininflationexpectationsislargelylinkedtorisingenergyprices.

• Firmsindicatedthatcompetitivepressureswilllimittheirabilitytopasscostincreasesontoconsumerprices.• Anumberofdomesticdemandindicatorssuggestinflationwillnotbeaprobleminthenear-term.Nonetheless,slack

intheCanadianeconomyisgraduallybeingabsorbedandarebalancingofmonetarypolicywillbeneeded,buttheBankofCanadacanwaituntilJulytostartraisingrates.

Current* WeekAgo

52-WeekHigh

52-WeekLow

Stock Market IndexesS&P500 1,333 1,332 1,343 1,023 S&P/TSXComp. 14,208 14,130 14,271 11,093 DAX 7,211 7,180 7,427 5,670 FTSE100 6,048 6,010 6,091 4,806 Nikkei 9,768 9,708 11,274 8,605 Fixed Income YieldsU.S.10-yrTreasury 3.59 3.44 3.89 2.38Canada10-yrBond 3.46 3.37 3.72 2.69Germany10-yrBund 3.48 3.37 3.48 2.12UK10-yrGilt 3.81 3.72 4.05 2.83Japan10-yrBond 1.33 1.29 1.41 0.85Foreign Exchange Cross RatesC$(USDperCAD) 1.05 1.04 1.05 0.93Euro(USDperEUR) 1.44 1.42 1.44 1.19Pound(USDperGBP) 1.64 1.61 1.64 1.43Yen(JPYperUSD) 85.1 84.1 94.5 78.9Commodity Spot Prices**CrudeOil($US/bbl) 111.4 107.9 111.4 66.0NaturalGas($US/MMBtu) 4.13 4.32 5.17 3.18Copper($US/met.tonne) 9650.5 9343.3 10179.5 6067.8Gold($US/troyoz.) 1471.1 1428.8 1471.1 1135.8

THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS

*asof11amonFriday,**Oil-WTI,Cushing,Nat.Gas-HenryHub,LA(Thursdaycloseprice),Copper-LMEGradeA,Gold-LondonGoldBullion;Source:Bloomberg

FederalReserve(FedFundsRate)BankofCanada(OvernightRate)EuropeanCentralBank(RefiRate)BankofEngland(RepoRate)BankofJapan(OvernightRate)Source:CentralBanks,HaverAnalytics

0.00%0.50%

0-0.25%1.00%1.25%

GLOBAL OFFICIAL POLICY RATE TARGETSCurrentTarget

WEEKLY GAINS vs U.S. DOLLAR

-1.05

0.77

1.42

1.43

1.47

1.55

1.66

1.85

1.92

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Japaneseyen

Mexicanpeso

Euro

Swissfranc

Australiandollar

Canadiandollar

Britishpound

N.Zealanddollar

Brazilianreal

Source:Bloomberg

The Weekly Bottom LineApril 8, 2011

TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics

2

UNITED STATES - ON THE VERGE OF A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

It was a very quiet week for U.S. data releases, but there was plenty to digest on the macro economic policy front, both domestically and abroad. Unsuccessful discussions regarding the U.S. budget, a growing divide at the Fed, the first interest rate hike since 2008 by the European Central Bank (ECB), combined with the impact of yesterday’s earth-quake in Japan, led to higher U.S. Treasury yields across the maturity curve and to a further weakening of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis the other major currencies, with the sole exception of the Japanese yen.

On the fiscal front, negotiations between House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have failed to deliver agreement on a bill that would secure gov-ernment funding beyond today’s expiration of the current stopgap funding bill. If there is no agreement by midnight, all government operations deemed non-essential would have to be suspended until either a new stopgap funding measure is passed or a fiscal budget is enacted.

Although a government shutdown will cause significant disruptions to many services, its macro economic conse-quences will be limited, granted that the impasse is short lived. The reason for this is that, even within non-essential activities, there are many contracts that operate on long-term funding and/or funds that have been apportioned in the previ-ous year’s budget, which will remain unaffected. And, while the interruption in some activities will indeed subtract from economic growth initially, most of the economic loss will be recouped once they resume. Thus, in aggregate, if the shutdown is limited to a brief period, its effect will smooth out during subsequent months. In all, although estimates for the impact of a one-week shutdown vary widely from a reduction of 0.1 percentage points in annualized quarterly GDP growth up to 0.8 percentage points, we tend to agree with the lower end of the spectrum. Of course, if the stale-mate extends much longer; its negative impact in terms of economic growth would escalate. A longer standoff could also cast a cloud on financial markets’ confidence in the U.S. ability to deal with its cumbersome fiscal outlook beyond this year, which could lead to a rise in interest rates on U.S. sovereign debt. Let’s not forget that in the very short term, U.S. legislators will also have to decide whether to expand the U.S. debt ceiling from the current $14.3 trillion statu-tory limit. According to Treasury Secretary Geithner, that limit will be reached no later than May 16th. This discus-sion, together with the 2011 fiscal budget negotiations, will be framed within the longer-term fiscal challenges for the

U.S., which will require the country to rein in the escalating costs of the largest government programs – Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid – and seek ways to increase fiscal revenues. Although we believe any significant fiscal tight-ening will not take place before 2013, current events could certainly bring it forward (for details, please see Putting the U.S. Fiscal House in Order).

On the monetary front, the minutes for the Fed’s FOMC meeting held on March 15th showed a widening divide be-tween a small group of members favoring a move toward less-accommodative monetary policy this year, and a few others who judge the current stance could be appropriate beyond 2011. We believe the Fed will not raise the federal funds rate until 2012.

On the other side of the Atlantic, attending to its mandate of delivering price stability defined as annual inflation of below, but close to 2%, the ECB raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points. Moreover, the general tone of the after-meeting press conference ratified our expectation that, although additional hikes totaling 50 basis points are likely this year, these will probably not happen until the third quarter. The ECB move was a reminder that interest rates are headed in only one direction and it won’t be long before other central banks in advanced economies – like Canada and the U.K. – follow suit.

Martin Schwerdtfeger, Economist 416-982-2559

POLICY INTEREST RATES

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-110

1

2

3

4

5

6

FedBoEECB

Source:U.S.FederalReserve,ECB,BankofEngland

% %

The Weekly Bottom LineApril 8, 2011

TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics

3

CANADA – BETWEEN A ROCK AND A SOFT PLACE

One of the key developments this week was a rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) in an effort to combat headline inflation. At first glance, one would think that this week’s release of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) closely watched Business Outlook Survey (BoS) indicates that the central bank should follow the ECB’s lead. The survey results showed that businesses expect food and energy price inflation to remain elevated, and headline inflation to accelerate. Meanwhile, the fact that some businesses are having some difficulty meeting demand suggests that slack in the Canadian economy is being diminished. However, we find a number of reasons to believe that the BoC is not likely to follow the ECB in raising rates at next week’s fixed announcement date.

The ECB targets headline inflation, while the BoC puts considerable emphasis on core inflation, and is thus likely to look past rising food and energy prices. With Canadian core inflation of just 0.9% in February, the BoC does not appear pressed with an inflation problem.

First, a significant amount of slack still exists in the Canadian economy. While the share of firms experiencing some to significant difficulty meeting demand has turned up, its remains low by historical standards. What’s more, Canadian economic growth will likely moderate to below 3.0% in the second half of this year, helping to keep infla-tion pressures in check. The BoS indicated that while 40% of firms indicated some difficulty in meeting demand, busi-nesses are less confident that the uptick in growth will be sustained through the rest of 2011. As a result, businesses have been shy to unlock unused excess capacity that still exists in the Canadian economy.

Second, while rising energy prices are impacting the

bottom lines of Canadian businesses, the feed-through to Canadian core prices will be limited. Concerns over com-petition will limit how much of rising costs businesses will be able to pass onto consumer prices. Moreover, Canadian households will feel the pinch from rising food and energy prices. With the price of oil hitting U.S. $110 per barrel at the end of this week, these price pressures are unlikely to abate in the near future. This will put upward pressure on headline prices, but also leave less money in pockets for other items, which is a negative for core inflation.

Last but not least is the Canadian dollar, which rose to a three year high of U.S.$ 1.046 by weeks end. The strength in the Canadian dollar will dampen Canadian exports, con-straining economic growth. It could also dampen prices for imported consumer goods. All of which helps to constrain inflation.

That’s all to say that the BoC has some leeway with mon-etary policy over the coming months. At next week’s fixed announcement date, and in the MPR, the BoC will highlight the improving economic backdrop, but is also likely to signal that they are not unduly worried about inflation. Indeed, eco-nomic growth has surpassed its January forecast by a large margin, and the performance in the labour market over the last six months has been relatively healthy. Despite a disap-pointing March, on a four-month moving average the labour market has added 28,000 jobs per month. This is consistent with healthy economic growth of 2.5-3.0%. The bottom line is that slack in the economy is being absorbed, but the BoC can wait until July before gradually tightening monetary policy from its current hyper accommodative stance.

Diana Petramala, Economist 416-982-6420

CANADIAN LABOUR MARKET

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-20115.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Employment(lhs)

UnemploymentRate(rhs)

change,000's %

Source:StatisticsCanada/HaverAnalytics

BANK OF CANADA OUTLOOK SURVEY RESULTS% of business responses

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

SometoSignificantdifficultymeetingdemandBalanceofopiniononfuturesales

Source:BankofCanada/HaverAnalytics

The Weekly Bottom LineApril 8, 2011

TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics

4

U.S.: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES

The US trade balance should enjoy a brief respite in February, with the deficit expected to moderate to $45.0B. The combination of the weak dollar (bolstering export com-petitiveness) and rising global demand should be the key factors contributing to the improvement. Exports should rise for the eighth straight month, while imports should fall modestly. Rising energy prices, however, should push the petroleum deficit sharply higher and excluding petroleum the trade deficit is expected to improve. In the coming months, with the weak dollar continuing to boost export activity, the deficit should ease further, though this is likely to be offset by rising energy prices.

Rising gasoline prices and the sustained positive mo-mentum in overall consumer spending should push total retail sales higher for the eighth consecutive month in March. During the month, we expect spending to post an-other respectable 0.5% M/M gain, following the 0.7% M/M advance the month before. Strong gasoline sales, which we expect to post a 3.0% advance, along with strong merchan-dise and apparel expenditures should be the key factors driving the headline number higher, more than offsetting the drop in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales should rise at 0.7% M/M. Core consumer spending is also expected to be higher, rising by 0.4% M/M, reflecting the positive tone

in overall consumer spending. In the months ahead, given the continued recovery in overall economic conditions and sustained employment growth, we expect the advance in consumer spending to be sustained.

*ForecastbyRatesandFXStrategyGroup.Forfurtherinformation,contactTDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.

U.S. International Trade - February* Release Date: April 12, 2011January Result: -$46.3B TD Forecast: -$45.0BConsensus: -$44.0B

U.S. Retail Sales - March*Release Date: April 13, 2011February Result: Retail Sales 1.0% M/M; Retail Sales

ex-autos 0.7% M/M; Retail Sales ex. Autos & Gas 0.6%TD Forecast: Retail Sales 0.5% M/M; Retail Sales ex-autos

0.7% M/M; Retail Sales ex. Autos & Gas 0.4% Consensus: Retail Sales 0.5% M/M; Retail Sales ex-autos

0.7% M/M; Retail Sales ex. Autos & Gas 0.4%

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE BALANCE

-55

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11

Source:CensusBureau/HaverAnalytics

US$,Billions

U.S. RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SALES

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11

Total

Excl.AutomotiveDealers

Source:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce/HaverAnalytics

M/M%Chg.

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5

As the recent run-up in commodity prices continues to slowly filter through to consumer food and gasoline prices, we expect the headline CPI index to post a new cyclical high in March. During the month, our call is for headline consumer prices to rise by 0.4% M/M, marking the fourth consecutive month of strong gains. On an annual basis, the pace of consumer price inflation should accelerate to 2.5% Y/Y from 2.1% Y/Y the month before. Much of the gains in the headline number should come from the surge in energy prices, which we expect to post another robust 3.0% M/M rise. Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices are expected to rise at a much more modest 0.1% M/M pace, following two consecutive 0.2% M/M gains. The risks to this call, however, are to the upside. On an annual basis, core inflation should rise to 1.2% Y/Y from 1.1% Y/Y in February. In the coming months, with the

considerable economic slack likely to remain a key factor placing downward pressure on core consumer prices, we expect annual core inflation to remain just above the 1.0% Y/Y, underscoring the very weak core inflationary backdrop for the US economy.

U.S. CPI - March* Release Date: April 15, 2011February Result: core 0.2% M/M; all-items 0.5% M/M,TD Forecast: core 0.1% M/M; all-items 0.4% M/MConsensus: core 0.2% M/M; all-items 0.5% M/M

*ForecastbyRatesandFXStrategyGroup.Forfurtherinformation,contactTDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.

The manufacturing sector continues to provide a strong boost to overall industrial production activity and has been one of the few bright spots of the overall economic recovery. In March, we expect headline industrial production to post a respectable 0.6% M/M bounce following the flat print the month before. Strong manufacturing sector activity is expected to be the key catalyst for the bounce, while min-ing and utility sector production should also add favorably to the top line. As production activity continues to rise, we expect the capacity utilisation rate to edge higher, rising to 77.3% in March, just shy of its cyclical high. In the months

U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - March* Release Date: April 15, 2011February Result: Industrial Production -0.1% M/M; Capacity Utilization 76.3% TD Forecast: Industrial Production 0.8% M/M; Capacity Utilization 77.2%Consensus: Industrial Production 0.5% M/M; Capacity Utilization 77.4%

ahead, with the economic recovery continuing to gain trac-tion, we expect the pace of industrial production and the rate of utilization to edge higher.

U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11

AllItems AllItemsEx.FoodandEnergy

Y/Y%Chg.

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics/HaverAnalytics

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-1169

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78IndustrialProduction(lhs)

CapacityUtilization(rhs)

M/M%Chg. %

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis

The Weekly Bottom LineApril 8, 2011

TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics

6

CANADA: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES

*ForecastbyRatesandFXStrategyGroup.Forfurtherinformation,contactTDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.

The trade surplus is forecast to rise modestly to $0.8B in February. Exports are expected to have risen by 3.0%, outpacing import growth of 1.0%. The strength in producer prices is expected to have contributed to a higher value of exports. Moreover, February was a particularly strong month for US economic activity and as such, some of that strength should have provided an additional boost for demand of Canadian goods. The rise in US motor vehicle assembly is expected to be the primary driver of the gain in Canadian imports. In assessing trade as a whole, this plays into the underlying theme of net exports becoming a primary driver of growth for the Canadian economy into 2011.

The Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.00% next week and will strike a cautiously optimistic tone in the accompanying communiqué. The re-lease of the April MPR will contrast a more robust outlook for economic growth with a benign backdrop for inflation. We expect the steady absorption of spare capacity will prompt the Bank to move next in July and take the overnight rate to 2.00% by the end of 2011.

Canadian International Trade - February* Release Date: April 12, 2011January Result: $0.1B TD Forecast: 0.8BConsensus: 0.7B

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision*Release Date: April 12, 2011Current Rate: 1.00%TD Forecast: 1.00%Consensus: 1.00%

CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE TRADE

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11

ExportsImports

Dollars,Billions

Source:StatisticsCanada/HaverAnalytics

BANK OF CANADA OVERNIGHT RATE

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

%

Source:BankofCanada/HaverAnalytics

The Weekly Bottom LineApril 8, 2011

TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics

7

*ForecastbyRatesandFXStrategyGroup.Forfurtherinformation,contactTDRates&FXResearch@tdsecurities.com.

Canadian manufacturing sales are forecast to carry their momentum into February, although at a much more modest pace with a 0.5% gain. The return of several automotive plants coming online in the previous month should continue to provide a boost to manufacturing sales. Moreover, the rise in new manufacturing orders in January should funnel through to sales in February. While preliminary data sug-gests that new motor vehicle sales may have decreased in February, the ongoing recovery in the US economy, along with increased US motor vehicle assembly, is expected to provide an offset. Adjusting for inflation suggests that real sales may have been slightly down on the month. A caveat however, is that normally we have trade data well before conducting this forecast. As such, we may revise this number

Canadian Manufacturing Shipments - February*Release Date: April 14, 2011January Result: 4.5% M/M TD Forecast: 0.5% M/MConsensus: -0.1% M/M

when the trade balance is released early next week. On the whole however, this release should speak to the underlying theme of a robust Canadian macro backdrop in Q1.

CANADIAN MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-111.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Source:StatisticsCanada

M/M%Chg. SeasonallyAdjustedRatio

ManufacturingShipments(leftscale)

Inventory-to-ShipmentsRatio(rightscale)

The Weekly Bottom LineApril 8, 2011

TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics

8

ReleaseDate Economic Indicator/Event Data for

Period Units Current Prior

Apr 5 ISMNon-Manf.Composite Mar Index 57.3 59.7Apr 6 MBAMortgageApplications 01-Apr W/W%Chg. -2.0 -7.5Apr7 InitialJoblessClaims 02-Apr Thousands 382 392 RApr7 ContinuingClaims 26-Mar Thousands 3723 3732 RApr7 ConsumerCredit Feb USD,Blns 7.617 4.446 RApr7 ICSCChainStoreSales Mar Y/Y%Chg. 2.0 4.2Apr 8 WholesaleInventories Feb M/M%Chg. 1.0 1.0 R

Apr4 BusinessOutlookFutureSales Q1 Index 13.00 22.00Apr4 BoCSeniorLoanOfficerSurvey Q1 Index -31.7 -36.4Apr6 IveyPurchasingManagersIndex Mar Index 73.2 69.3Apr7 BuildingPermits Feb M/M%Chg. 9.9 -6.6 RApr8 FullTimeEmploymentChange Mar Thousands 90.6 -23.8Apr8 NetChangeinEmployment Mar Thousands -1.5 15.1Apr8 ParticipationRate Mar % 66.9 67.0Apr8 PartTimeEmploymentChange Mar Thousands -92.1 38.9Apr8 UnemploymentRate Mar % 7.7 7.8Apr8 HousingStarts Mar Thousands 188.8 183.7 R

Apr3 AU TDSecuritiesInflation Mar Y/Y%Chg. 3.8 3.6Apr3 NZ NZIERBusinessOpinionSurvey Q1 Index -27 8Apr4 EC SentixInvestorConfidence Apr Index 14.2 17.1Apr4 EC Euro-ZonePPI Feb Y/Y%Chg. 6.6 5.9 RApr4 AU TradeBalance Feb AUD,Mlns -205 1433 RApr5 AU RBACashTarget 5-Apr % 4.75 4.75Apr5 UK PMIServices Mar Index 57.1 52.6Apr5 UK OfficialReserves(Changes) Mar USD,Mlns 2253 904Apr5 EC Euro-ZoneRetailSales Feb Y/Y%Chg. 0.1 0.7Apr6 UK IndustrialProduction Feb Y/Y%Chg. 2.4 4.2 RApr6 GE FactoryOrders Feb Y/Y%Chg. 20.1 16.5 RApr6 AU UnemploymentRate Mar % 4.9 5.0Apr7 JP BOJTargetRate 7-Apr % 0.10 0.10Apr7 GE IndustrialProduction Feb Y/Y%Chg. 14.8 12.7 RApr7 UK BOEAnnouncesInterestRates 7-Apr % 0.50 0.50Apr7 EC ECBAnnouncesInterestRates 7-Apr % 1.25 1.00Apr7 JN AdjustedCurrentAccountTotal Feb Yen,Blns 1209.8 1089.2Apr7 JN TradeBalance-BOPBasis Feb Yen,Blns 723.3 -394.5Apr8 GE Exports Feb M/M%Chg. 2.7 -1.0Apr8 UK PPIOutputCore Mar Y/Y%Chg. 3.0 3.1

*EasternStandardTime;Source:Bloomberg,TDEconomics

RECENT KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: APRIL 4-8, 2011

United States

Canada

International

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TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics

9

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: APRIL 11-15, 2011Release

Date Time* Economic Indicator/Event Data for Period Units Consensus

Forecast Last Period

United StatesApr12 7:30 NFIBSmallBusinessOptimism Mar Index 95.0 94.5Apr12 8:30 ImportPriceIndex Mar M/M%Chg. 2.0 1.4Apr12 8:30 TradeBalance Feb USD,Blns -44.0 -46.3Apr12 9:15 Kansas City Fed's Hoenig Speaks on "Too Big to Fail"Apr12 10:00 IBD/TIPPEconomicOptimism Apr Index 45.0 43.0Apr12 14:00 MonthlyBudgetStatement Mar -- -- --Apr12 14:45 Fed's Tarullo Testifies on Derivatives RegulationApr13 7:00 MBAMortgageApplications 8-Apr W/W%Chg. -- -2.0Apr13 8:30 AdvanceRetailSales Mar M/M%Chg. 0.5 1.0Apr13 8:30 RetailSalesExAuto&Gas Mar M/M%Chg. 0.4 0.6Apr13 8:30 RetailSalesLessAutos Mar M/M%Chg. 0.7 0.7Apr13 10:00 JOLTsJobOpenings Feb Thousands -- 2760Apr13 10:00 BusinessInventories Feb M/M%Chg. 0.8 0.9Apr13 13:00 Reserve Bank of Australia's Stevens Speaks in New York CityApr13 14:00 Fed's Beige BookApr14 8:30 InitialJoblessClaims 9-Apr Thousands 380 382Apr14 8:30 ContinuingClaims 2-Apr Thousands 3709 3723Apr14 8:30 ProducerPriceIndex Mar M/M%Chg. 1.1 1.6Apr14 8:30 PPIExFood&Energy Mar M/M%Chg. 0.2 0.2Apr14 13:15 Fed's Tarullo Speaks in Washington on Growth, InflationApr15 8:30 ConsumerPriceIndex Mar M/M%Chg. 0.5 0.5Apr15 8:30 CPIExFood&Energy Mar M/M%Chg. 0.2 0.2Apr15 8:30 CPICoreIndexSA Mar Index -- 223.029Apr15 8:30 EmpireManufacturing Apr Index 17.15 17.50Apr15 9:00 TotalNetTICFlows Feb USD,Blns -- 32.5Apr15 9:00 NetLong-termTICFlows Feb USD,Blns -- 51.5Apr15 9:15 IndustrialProduction Mar M/M%Chg. 0.5 -0.1Apr15 9:15 CapacityUtilization Mar % 77.4 76.3Apr15 9:55 U.ofMichiganConfidence Apr Index 69.0 67.5

CanadaApr12 8:30 NewHousingPriceIndex Feb M/M%Chg. 0.2 0.2Apr12 8:30 Int'lMerchandiseTrade Feb CAD,Blns 0.7 0.1Apr12 9:00 BankofCanadaRate 12-Apr % 1.00 1.00Apr13 10:30 Monetary Policy ReportApr14 8:30 ManufacturingSales Feb M/M%Chg. -0.1 4.5

InternationalApr12 2:45 FR CurrentAccount Feb EUR,Blns -- -5.1Apr12 4:30 UK TotalTradeBalance Feb GBP,Mlns -3950 -2950Apr12 4:30 UK CPI Mar Y/Y%Chg. 4.4 4.4Apr12 4:30 UK CoreCPI Mar Y/Y%Chg. 3.3 3.4Apr12 4:30 UK RetailPriceIndex Mar Y/Y%Chg. 5.5 5.5Apr12 5:00 GE ZEWSurvey(Econ.Sentiment) Apr Index 10.6 14.1Apr13 1:30 FR CPI-EUHarmonised Mar Y/Y%Chg. 1.9 1.8Apr13 4:30 UK ILOUnemploymentRate(3mths) Feb % 8.0 8.0Apr13 5:00 EC Euro-ZoneInd.Prod.WDA Feb Y/Y%Chg. 8.0 6.6Apr14 4:00 EC ECB Publishes April Monthly ReportApr15 5:00 EC Euro-ZoneCPI-Core Mar Y/Y%Chg. 1.1 1.0Apr15 5:00 EC Euro-ZoneTradeBalanceSA Feb EUR,Blns -3.6 -3.3

*EasternStandardTime;Source:Bloomberg,TDEconomics

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10

Thisreport isprovidedbyTDEconomics forcustomersofTDBankGroup.Itisforinformationpurposesonlyandmaynotbeappropriateforotherpurposes.ThereportdoesnotprovidematerialinformationaboutthebusinessandaffairsofTDBankGroupandthemembersofTDEconomicsarenotspokespersonsforTDBankGroupwithrespecttoitsbusinessandaffairs.Theinformationcontainedinthisreporthasbeendrawnfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,butisnotguaranteedtobeaccurateorcomplete.Thereportcontainseconomicanalysisandviews,includingaboutfutureeconomicandfinancialmarketsperformance.Thesearebasedoncertainassumptionsandotherfactors,andaresubjecttoinherentrisksanduncertainties.Theactualoutcomemaybemateriallydifferent.TheToronto-DominionBankanditsaffiliatesandrelatedentitiesthatcompriseTDBankGrouparenotliableforanyerrorsoromissionsintheinformation,analysisorviewscontainedinthisreport,orforanylossordamagesuffered.

CONTACTS AT TD ECONOMICS

Craig AlexanderSenior Vice President and

Chief Economist mailto:craig.alexander@td.com

TO REACH US Mailing Address 55KingStreetWest 21stFloor,TDTower Toronto,Ontario M5K1A2 Fax:(416)944-5536 mailto:td.economics@td.com

CANADIAN ECONOMIC ANALYSISDerek Burleton, Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:derek.burleton@td.com Pascal Gauthier Senior Economist mailto:pascal.gauthier@td.com

Diana Petramala Economist, Macro mailto:diana.petramala@td.com

Francis Fong Economist, Special Studies mailto:francis.fong@td.com

Dina Cover Economist, Industry mailto:dina.cover@td.com

Shahrzad Mobasher Fard Economist, Industry mailto:shahrzad.fard@td.com

Sonya Gulati Economist, Regional and Government Finances mailto:sonya.gulati@td.com

Leslie Preston Economic Analyst mailto:leslie.preston@td.com

U.S. & INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSISBeata Caranci, Associate Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:beata.caranci@td.com James Marple Senior Economist mailto:james.marple@td.com

Martin Schwerdtfeger Economist, International mailto:martin.schwerdtfeger@td.com

Christos Shiamptanis Economist mailto:christos.shiamptanis@td.com

Alistair Bentley Economist mailto:alistair.bentley@td.com

Chris Jones Economic Analyst mailto:christopher.w.jones@td.com