the weekly bottom line - may 6, 2011
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The Weekly Bottom Line - May 6, 2011TRANSCRIPT
The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economicswww.td.com/economics
May 6, 2011
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States• FearsofaslowingU.S.recoveryandrisingworldwideinflationhurtmarketsentimentearlythisweek,triggeringa
flightfromriskselloffthatsentcommoditypricesandequitiestumblingdownsharply.• Today,apositivesurpriseinU.S.employmentnumbersveeredequitymarketsintheoppositedirection;atthetime
ofwritingboththeDowJonesandtheS&P500wereup0.9%ontheday,andWTIcrudeoilhadrecouped1.1%.• SignificantupwardrevisionstoFebruaryandMarchfigurescontributedtobringthe3-monthmovingaverageto233K
newjobspermonth,whichsuggestsanincipientfirminginhiringconditions.
Canada• TheFederalConservativePartyfinallysecuredamajoritygovernmentinMonday’selection.Theyplantopassthe
budgettheytabledbackinMarch.Thiswasanon-eventformarkets,asthebudgetdetailshavealreadybeenbakedintotheeconomicoutlook.
• Commoditiestookamajorhitthisweek,withtheWTIpriceofoilmovingbelow$100perbarrel.• WhiletheCanadiandollarfellinlockstepwiththepriceofoil,stronger-than-expectedemploymentreportsintheU.S.
andCanadaprovidedsomesupporttotheloonie,keepingitatastilllofty$1.04U.S.byweek’send.TheCanadianeconomyaddedasizeable58,000jobsinApril,andtheunemploymentrateedgeddownto7.6%.
Current* WeekAgo
52-WeekHigh
52-WeekLow
Stock Market IndexesS&P500 1,352 1,364 1,364 1,023 S&P/TSXComp. 13,550 13,945 14,271 11,093 DAX 7,477 7,514 7,528 5,670 FTSE100 5,951 6,070 6,091 4,806 Nikkei 9,859 9,850 10,858 8,605 Fixed Income YieldsU.S.10-yrTreasury 3.22 3.29 3.74 2.38Canada10-yrBond 3.24 3.21 3.60 2.69Germany10-yrBund 3.20 3.24 3.49 2.12UK10-yrGilt 3.40 3.43 3.92 2.83Japan10-yrBond 1.15 1.21 1.36 0.85Foreign Exchange Cross RatesC$(USDperCAD) 1.04 1.06 1.06 0.93Euro(USDperEUR) 1.45 1.48 1.48 1.19Pound(USDperGBP) 1.64 1.67 1.67 1.43Yen(JPYperUSD) 80.6 81.2 93.3 78.9Commodity Spot Prices**CrudeOil($US/bbl) 99.7 113.9 113.9 66.0NaturalGas($US/MMBtu) 4.51 4.50 5.17 3.18Copper($US/met.tonne) 8793.8 9296.0 10179.5 6067.8Gold($US/troyoz.) 1492.0 1563.7 1563.7 1161.6
THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS
*asof10:00amonFriday,**Oil-WTI,Cushing,Nat.Gas-HenryHub,LA(Thursdaycloseprice),Copper-LMEGradeA,Gold-LondonGoldBullion;Source:Bloomberg
FederalReserve(FedFundsRate)BankofCanada(OvernightRate)EuropeanCentralBank(RefiRate)BankofEngland(RepoRate)BankofJapan(OvernightRate)Source:CentralBanks,HaverAnalytics
0.00%0.50%
0-0.25%1.00%1.25%
GLOBAL OFFICIAL POLICY RATE TARGETSCurrentTarget
WEEKLY GAINS vs U.S. DOLLAR
-2.64
-2.21
-2.11
-2.07
-2
-1.84
-1.06
-1
1.06
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2
Euro
Australiandollar
Canadiandollar
N.Zealanddollar
Brazilianreal
Britishpound
Swissfranc
Mexicanpeso
Japaneseyen
Source:Bloomberg
%
The Weekly Bottom LineMay 6, 2011
TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics
2
UNITED STATES - CELEBRATING STRONGER EMPLOYMENT
Fears of a slowing U.S. recovery and rising worldwide inflation hurt market sentiment early this week, triggering a flight from risk sell off that sent commodity prices and equities tumbling down sharply. WTI crude oil slipped 8.6% yesterday, bringing losses since last Friday of 13.3%. The Dow Jones industrial average index closed yesterday 1.4% down on the week, while the S&P 500 had shed 1.9%. As usual, the flight-to-safety benefited U.S. Treasuries – 10-year yields went down 13 basis points since Monday – and the greenback saw sizeable gains versus the other major currencies, except the Japanese yen.
Today, a positive surprise in U.S. employment numbers veered equity markets in the opposite direction; at the time of writing both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 were up 0.9% on the day, and WTI crude oil had recouped 1.1%.
Indeed, the U.S. labor market added 244K new jobs in April, well above market expectations for a 185K increase. Also uplifting, significant upward revisions to February and March figures contributed to bring the 3-month moving average to 233K new jobs per month, which suggests an incipient firming in hiring conditions. If this performance takes hold, it will prove supportive of household consump-tion, which we are projecting will contribute roughly three quarters of the overall 3% GDP growth expected this year. A faster uptake in job creation would also alleviate some of the strains facing the housing market, which remains the key drag on U.S. economic activity.
However, to keep a balanced view, we ought to remember that the U.S. job market still boasts some 6.9 million jobs less than it did at its pre-recession peak. Therefore, at the current
pace of job creation, it would take two and a half years just to close that gap. Then the economy would have to absorb the newer additions to the labor force. As we wrote last week, these facts are weighting more on the minds of the FOMC members than the recent pick up in inflation, which is why they have decided, for the time being, to carry through with their extraordinary monetary stimulus. There has been no shortage of voices blaming the Fed for providing the liquid-ity necessary to fuel the bull run in commodity prices that has contributed to rising worldwide inflation. Regardless of whether one shares this view, it is undisputable that this week’s correction in commodity prices brought them more in line with both the supply and demand fundamentals and the global economic growth outlook.
Central banks across emerging markets will have to continue tightening monetary policy to avert inflation spi-raling out of control, which would mean their economies will in exchange trade off economic growth. In advanced economies, only the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England still maintain their monetary policy stance in crisis-fighting mode, although the latter will likely start raising rates later this year too. If commodity prices resume their ascending march, that would prompt more forceful policy reactions by central bankers across the globe, further hampering economic growth. With memories of the 2008 commodity boom and its aftermath still fresh, and still plenty of downward risks to the global recovery, one would be inclined to think forward looking markets wouldn’t buy the $150-per-barrel story again. But... you never know.
Martin Schwerdtfeger, Economist 416-982-2559
U.S. JOB MARKET
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
J-05 J-06 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics
Employment, m/m chg. - L -Unemployment rate - R -
'000people %
CRUDE OIL AND GLOBAL EQUITIES
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
N-05 N-06 N-07 N-08 N-09 D-10600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Source:Bloomberg
$perbarrel Index
WTI crude oil - L -MSCI Global Index
The Weekly Bottom LineMay 6, 2011
TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics
3
CANADA – HOPE FLOATS
This week was action packed for both the global and Canadian economic and political landscape. First on the docket was the Canadian federal election, which was a non-event for markets. That’s not that surprising given little really changed from a market perspective. The conservative government plans to pass the budget they tabled in March with perhaps a few tweaks. Their four year plan includes the challenging, but not impossible, task of turning the current deficit (2% of GDP) into a slight surplus by 2014/2015 with-out increasing taxes. With the budget details already baked into our outlook, our economic and financial forecasts are left unaltered. The only thing that the election results really changes is that securing a majority gives the government the political power to take the steps they view as necessary to achieving their four year fiscal plan, improving the odds of returning to balance.
By Tuesday, market attention was captivated by events with more economic consequence. A broad based decline in commodity prices this week was led by a drop in the WTI price of oil to below $100. Elsewhere, gold and copper both fell roughly by 5%. Investors are increasingly coming to terms with the risks posed by an unsustainable pace of eco-nomic growth and rising inflation in developing economies.
Overall, these events can be deemed as largely positive. For instance, despite the implied set back for the S&P/ TSX, the price of oil has moved down into a range that we view as being more consistent with supply and demand funda-mentals. At current, levels the price of oil remains profitable for the resource sector. Softer commodity prices are also good for most economies, notably the U.S., as it leaves more
room in the pockets of households and businesses to spend on other major items such as investment and durable goods.
Moreover, Canadian exporters received some reprieve as the Canadian dollar depreciated in lockstep with the price of oil by mid week. However, the simultaneous release of better-than-expected U.S. and Canadian employment data helped support the loonie at a still-lofty $1.04 U.S. by week’s end. The Canadian economy added a sizeable 58,000 jobs in April, while employment in the U.S. increased by a robust 244,000.
Still, the Canadian unemployment rate has been stuck in a range of 7.6-7.8% since the start of this year, and re-mains well above the pre-recession low of 6.0%. And, while Canada’s employment market has turned out a decent perfor-mance since the start of the economic recovery, employment in manufacturing remains stuck in a rut, particularly with the dollar at high levels. This is a concern for those with skills directly related to goods-producing industries. So while deficit reduction is the focus of the federal government’s planned budget, job creation likely remains on the minds of many. The two, however, are not at odds in the medium term. There are many known economic benefits of scaling back government deficits. For one, it keeps interest rates low, which in turn helps spur private demand and hiring. As such, the ability of the government to stick to its four year plan of deficit reduction would be a bonus for the economy, and Canadian financial markets.
Diana Petramala, Economist 416-982-6420
CANADIAN DOLLAR AND OIL PRICES
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
03-Jan-2011
21-Jan-2011
10-Feb-2011
02-Mar-2011
22-Mar-2011
11-Apr-2011
29-Apr-2011
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
WTIPriceofOil(lhs)
Canadiandollar(rhs)
WTI,U.S.$perbarrel U.S.$perC$
Source:Bank of Canada,WSJ, HaverAnalytics
CANADIAN EMPLOYMENTIndexedatJanuary2004=100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source:StatisticsCanada,HaverAnalytics
The Weekly Bottom LineMay 6, 2011
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4
U.S.: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES
*ForecastbyRatesandFXStrategyGroup.Forfurtherinformation,contactTDRates&[email protected].
Higher commodities prices should continue to keep the trade deficit in elevated territory in March. During the month we expect the deficit to rise marginally to $46.0B from $45.8B in February. Higher energy prices should be the key factor continuing to push the deficit higher, more than offsetting the improvement in the non-petroleum trade balance that has been driven by the weak dollar and rising global demand for US products. However, with the surge in energy prices beginning to result in demand destruction for energy, the 2.5% M/M drop in petroleum import should partially offset the 10% surge in prices during the month. In the coming months, with the weak dollar continuing to boost exports activity, the deficit should ease though this is likely to be offset by high energy prices.
Rising food and gasoline prices, and the sustained (though moderating) positive momentum in overall con-sumer spending should push total retail sales higher for the tenth consecutive month in April. During the month, we expect spending to post another respectable 0.6% M/M gain, following the slightly more modest 0.4% M/M ad-vance the month before. The 6.6% M/M gain in gasoline prices should be tempered by falling fuel demand, with spending on gasoline expenditures rising at a slower pace than the month before. Spending on apparel, food services and housing relating components should also edge higher. Given a relatively flat auto expenditures profile, we expect sales excluding autos to also rise at a 0.6% M/M pace. Core consumer spending is also expected to be higher, rising by
0.4% M/M, reflecting the continuing positive tone in overall consumer spending. In the months ahead, given the contin-ued recovery in overall economic conditions and sustained employment growth, we expect the advance in consumer spending to be sustained.
U.S. International Trade - March* Release Date: May 11, 2011February Result: -$45.8B TD Forecast: -$46.0BConsensus: -$47.0B
U.S. Retail Sales - April*Release Date: May 12, 2011March Result: Retail Sales 0.4% M/M; Retail Sales ex-
autos 0.8% M/M; Retail Sales ex. Autos & Gas 0.5%TD Forecast: Retail Sales 0.6% M/M; Retail Sales ex-autos
0.6% M/M; Retail Sales ex. Autos & Gas 0.4% Consensus: Retail Sales 0.6% M/M; Retail Sales ex-autos
0.6% M/M; Retail Sales ex. Autos & Gas 0.5%
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE BALANCE
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11
Source:CensusBureau/HaverAnalytics
US$,Billions
U.S. RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SALES
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11
Total
Excl.AutomotiveDealers
Source:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce/HaverAnalytics
M/M%Chg.
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5
As the recent run-up in food and energy prices continue to filter through to consumer prices, we expect the head-line CPI inflation rate to post a new cyclical high in April. During the month, our call is for headline the headline CPI index to rise by 0.4% M/M, marking the fifth consecutive month of strong consumer price gains. On an annual basis, the pace of consumer price inflation should accelerate to 3.0% Y/Y from 2.7% Y/Y the month before. Much of the gains in the headline number should come from the surge in energy prices, which we expect to post another robust 2% M/M rise. Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices are expected to rise at a more modest 0.2% M/M pace, mostly on account of rising rent prices. On an an-nual basis, core inflation should accelerate to 1.3% Y/Y from 1.2% Y/Y in March. In the coming months, with the
considerable economic slack likely to remain a key factor placing downward pressure on core consumer prices, we expect annual core inflation to continue the slow upward trek, providing some discomfort for the Fed.
*ForecastbyRatesandFXStrategyGroup.Forfurtherinformation,contactTDRates&[email protected].
U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11
AllItems AllItemsEx.FoodandEnergy
Y/Y%Chg.
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics/HaverAnalytics
U.S. CPI - April* Release Date: May 13, 2011March Result: core 0.1% M/M; all-items 0.5% M/M,TD Forecast: core 0.2% M/M; all-items 0.4% M/MConsensus: core 0.2% M/M; all-items 0.4% M/M
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6
CANADA: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES
*ForecastbyRatesandFXStrategyGroup.Forfurtherinformation,contactTDRates&[email protected].
Housing starts are forecast to have decelerated just modestly in April to 184K annualized units. This move can be attributed primarily to below-seasonal and wetter-than normal weather and an anticipated pullback in rural starts. By comparison, single unit starts are expected to remain in the neighbourhood of 63K annualized units while multiple units are forecast to have accelerated incrementally to 103K. The recent moderation in building permits combined with an uptick in residential mortgage rates should help slow housing activity over the coming months. For the quarter as a whole, we expect starts to slow from 178K to 160K, which is consistent with an overall moderation in Canada’s housing market.
After collapsing to zero in February, the trade balance is expected to slide further in March, ending up in a modest deficit of $0.2B. While both exports and imports are forecast to rebound from their respective declines in February, the estimated advance in the former of 3.8% will fall short of the 4.2% expected from the latter.
After causing a significant disruption in the first two months of the year, both exports and imports of automobiles are expected to be relatively benign and generally positive. The disruption to the global supply chain caused by events in Japan will certainly introduce additional volatility in the months ahead but our expectation is that production in March was supported by accumulated inventories. The risk, however, is for a larger drop in imports marking the leading edge of the disruption, which could contribute to an unexpected and temporary increase in the trade balance.
With the March data in hand, the first quarter for trade
will come into focus. After accounting for higher export and import prices in March, quarterly exports are forecast to advance in the neighbourhood of 3.5% annualized. By contrast, imports should increase close to 15% on an an-nualized basis. With many of these imports destined to a restocking of inventories, we remain comfortable with our forecast for Q1 annualized economic growth of 3.8%.
Canadian International Trade - March* Release Date: May 11, 2011February Result: $0.0B TD Forecast: -$0.2BConsensus: $0.0B
Canadian Housing Starts - April* Release Date: May 9, 2011 March Result: 188.8KTD Forecast: 184.0KConsensus: 183.0K
CANADIAN HOUSING STARTS
150
175
200
225
Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-1150
60
70
80
90
100
110
Source:CMHC/HaverAnalytics
Thousands Thousands
Total Starts (left scale)
Urban Multiples (right scale)
CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE TRADE
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11
ExportsImports
Dollars,Billions
Source:StatisticsCanada/HaverAnalytics
The Weekly Bottom LineMay 6, 2011
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7
RECENT KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS: MAY 2-6, 2011
May 2 ConstructionSpending Mar M/M%Chg. 1.4 -2.4 RMay 2 ISMManufacturing Apr Index 60.4 61.2May 2 ISMPricesPaid Apr Index 85.5 85.0May3 FactoryOrders Mar M/M%Chg. 3.0 0.7 RMay3 TotalVehicleSales Apr Millions 13.14 13.06May3 DomesticVehicleSales Apr Millions 10.20 9.94May4 MBAMortgageApplications 29-Apr W/W%Chg. 4.0 -5.6May4 ChallengerJobCuts Apr Y/Y%Chg. -4.8 -38.6May4 ADPEmploymentChange Apr Thousands 179 207 RMay4 ISMNon-Manf.Composite Apr Index 52.8 57.3May5 NonfarmProductivity 1QP Q/Q%Chg. 1.6 2.9 RMay5 UnitLaborCosts 1QP Q/Q%Chg. 1.0 -1.0 RMay5 InitialJoblessClaims 30-Apr Thousands 474 431 RMay5 ContinuingClaims 23-Apr Thousands 3733 3659 RMay 6 ChangeinNonfarmPayrolls Apr Thousands 244 221 RMay 6 UnemploymentRate Apr % 9.0 8.8May 6 AvgHourlyEarningsAllEmployees Apr M/M%Chg. 0.1 0.2 RMay 6 AvgWeeklyHoursAllEmployees Apr Hours 34.3 34.3May 6 ConsumerCredit Mar USD,Blns -- 7.617
May 2 IndustrialProductPrice Mar M/M%Chg. 0.9 0.9 RMay 2 RawMaterialsPriceIndex Mar M/M%Chg. 5.7 2.1 RMay5 BuildingPermits Mar M/M%Chg. 17.2 9.8 RMay5 IveyPurchasingManagersIndexSA Apr Index 57.8 73.2May 6 NetChangeinEmployment Apr Thousands 58.3 -1.5May 6 UnemploymentRate Apr % 7.6 7.7
May3 AU RBACashTarget -- % 4.75 4.75May3 UK PMIManufacturing Apr Index 54.6 56.7 RMay4 UK Nat'wideHousePrices Apr Y/Y%Chg. -1.3 0.1May4 NZ UnemploymentRate 1Q % 6.6 6.7 RMay5 GE FactoryOrders Mar Y/Y%Chg. 9.7 19.6 RMay5 UK BOEAnnounesRates -- % 0.50 0.50May5 EC ECBAnnouncesInterestRates -- % 1.25 1.25May6 GE IndustrialProduction Mar Y/Y%Chg. 11.2 15.2 R
Source:Bloomberg,TDEconomics
International
Prior
Canada
United States
ReleaseDate Economic Indicators Data for
Period Units Current
The Weekly Bottom LineMay 6, 2011
TDEconomicswww.td.com/economics
8
UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: MAY 9-13, 2011Release
Date Time* Economic Indicator/Event Data for Period Units Consensus
Forecast Last Period
United StatesMay10 7:30 NFIBSmallBusinessOptimism Apr Index 91.9May10 8:30 ImportPriceIndex Apr M/M%Chg. 1.8 2.7May10 10:00 IDP/TIPPEconomicOptimism May Index -- 40.8May10 10:00 WholesaleInventories Mar M/M%Chg. 1.0 1.0May10 12:45 Fed's Lacker Speaks on Economic Outlook in Arlington, VAMay11 7:00 MBAMortgageApplications 6-May W/W%Chg. -- 4.0May11 8:30 TradeBalance Mar USD,Blns -47.0 -45.8May11 10:00 JOLTsJobOpenings Mar Thousands -- 3093May11 12:15 Fed's Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook in AtlantaMay11 13:00 Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in New YorkMay11 14:00 MonthlyBudgetStatement Apr USD,Blns -65.0 -188.2May12 8:30 InitialJoblessClaims 7-May Thousands 420 474May12 8:30 ContinuingClaims 30-Apr Thousands -- 3733May12 8:30 ProducerPriceIndex Apr M/M%Chg. 0.6 0.7May12 8:30 PPIExFood&Energy Apr M/M%Chg. 0.2 0.3May12 8:30 AdvanceRetailSales Apr M/M%Chg. 0.6 0.4May12 8:30 RetailSalesLessAutos Apr M/M%Chg. 0.6 0.8May12 8:30 RetailSalesExAutos&Gas Apr M/M%Chg. 0.5 0.6May12 10:00 BusinessInventories Mar M/M%Chg. 0.9 0.5May13 8:30 ConsumerPriceIndex Apr M/M%Chg. 0.4 0.5May13 8:30 CPIExFood&Energy Apr M/M%Chg. 0.2 0.1May13 9:55 U.ofMichiganConfidence May Index 70.0 69.8
CanadaMay9 8:15 HousingStarts Apr Thousands 183.0 188.8May9 8:30 Int'lMerchandiseTrade Mar CAD,Blns 0.0 0.0May12 8:30 NewHousingPriceIndex Mar M/M%Chg. -- 0.4
InternationalMay9 -- UK HalifaxHousePrices3Mths/Year Apr Y/Y%Chg. -3.0 -2.9May9 2:00 GE TradeBalance Mar EUR,Blns 12.9 12.1May9 2:30 FR BankofFranceBus.Sentiment Apr Index 110 110May11 4:30 UK TotalTradeBalance Mar GBP,Mlns -3200 -2443May11 5:30 UK Bank of England Inflation ReportMay11 19:50 JN AdjustedCurrentAccountTotal Mar Yen,Blns 1016.2 1209.8May11 21:30 AU UnemploymentRate Apr % 4.9 4.9May12 1:30 FR CPI-EUHarmonised Apr Y/Y%Chg. 2.3 2.2May12 4:00 EC ECB Publishes May Monthly ReportMay12 5:00 EC Euro-ZoneInd.Prod. Mar Y/Y%Chg. 6.3 7.3May12 -- UK NIESRGDPEstimate Apr M/M%Chg. -- 0.7May13 5:00 EC Euro-ZoneGDP 1Q Y/Y%Chg. 2.2 2.0
*EasternStandardTime;Source:Bloomberg,TDEconomics
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CONTACTS AT TD ECONOMICS
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Chief Economist mailto:[email protected]
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CANADIAN ECONOMIC ANALYSISDerek Burleton, Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:[email protected] Pascal Gauthier Senior Economist mailto:[email protected]
Diana Petramala Economist, Macro mailto:[email protected]
Francis Fong Economist, Special Studies mailto:[email protected]
Dina Cover Economist, Industry mailto:[email protected]
Shahrzad Mobasher Fard Economist, Industry mailto:[email protected]
Sonya Gulati Economist, Regional and Government Finances mailto:[email protected]
Leslie Preston Economic Analyst mailto:[email protected]
U.S. & INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSISBeata Caranci, Associate Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist mailto:[email protected] James Marple Senior Economist mailto:[email protected]
Martin Schwerdtfeger Economist, International mailto:[email protected]
Christos Shiamptanis Economist mailto:[email protected]
Alistair Bentley Economist mailto:[email protected]
Chris Jones Economic Analyst mailto:[email protected]