thecaliforniaelectorate: demographicsand$ engagement7 · voters in 2030 will be of color !!!!!...
TRANSCRIPT
The California Electorate: Demographics and
Engagement
Lisa García Bedolla University of California, Berkeley
The Engagement Gap 62%
17%
6% 11%
44%
34%
6%
14%
23%
60%
3%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Non-Latino Whites Latinos Blacks Asians
Likely Voters Population Unregistered Adults
SOURCES: Likely voters – 2014 PPIC Statewide Poll; Population – U.S. Census
Projected Adult Population, 2010-‐‑2050, by Ethnorace
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
White, Non-Latino Black Mixed Race Asian Latino
Source: California State Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, Report P-3, “State and County Total Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity and Detailed Age.”
California’s New Electorate, 2030 Non-Latino
Whites 30%
Latinos 53%
African Americans
5%
Asian/Pacific Islander
12%
Mixed Race 4%
70% of
California’s new voters in 2030 will be of color
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Chico
FresnoMadera
Stockton
Monterey
Riverside
San Diego
Sacramento
Bakersfield
Los Angeles
Santa Barbara
San Francisco
San Luis Obispo
CA PipelineUnder 18 Citizens by Zip within CA Counties
Under 18 Citizen Counts0 - 5000
5000 - 10000
10000 - 15000
15000 - 20000
20000+
Missing Data
¯
Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips.
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Chico
Fresno
Madera
Stockton
Monterey
Sacramento
San Francisco
Northern CA Hotspots of Early Voters by Zip:Whites
Early Voter PercentagesMuch lower than average
Lower than average
Average
Higher than average
Much higher than average
Missing Data
County Boundaries
¯
Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips. (b) A hot spot is defined as an area that is overperforming relative to state averages for whites,whereas a cold spot reflects an underperforming area. In the legend, much higher than average = more than 1.96 standard deviations above the norm; higher than average = more than 1 standard deviations above the norm; average = at the mean level and under 1 standard deviation above or below the state average; lower than average = 1 to 1.96 standard deviations below the norm; and much lower than average = more than 1.96 standard deviations below the norm. (c) Map reflects patterns of early voter concentrations using within county estimates. County findings are presented by Californiaregions for summary purposes. Source: Proportions of early voters are based on data obtained from Political Data Incorporated (PDI) (downloadedon June 1, 2014).
0 – 5,0005,000 – 10,00010,000 – 15,000
15,000 – 20,00020,000+Missing DataCounty Boundaries
Number of Youth
Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips. (b) A hot spot is defined as an area that is overperforming relative to state averages, whereas a cold spot reflects an underperforming area. In the legend, much higher than average = more than 1.5 standard deviations above the norm; higher than average = more than 1 standard deviations above the norm; average = at the mean level and under 1 standard deviation above or below the state average; lower than average = 1 to 1.5 standard deviations below the norm; and much lower than average = more than 1.5 standard deviations below the norm. Counts represent number of individuals in each geographical unit of analysis who are under 18 citizens (native born or naturalized foreign born) This map assumes that the maturing population is constant and does not account for mobility or mortality. Source: Counts of youth are based on data obtained from the 2012 American Community Survey 5-year estimates.
Hotspots of Youth Entering Electorate 2012-2030by Zip Code
Key Findings • Latinos and Asian Americans less likely to register to
vote, regardless of income
• Where people register varies across groups
• Registration and voting rates vary significantly
across the state, and across ethnoracial groups
within geographic regions
• Electoral reforms like early voting will not have the
same effect on all of California’s voters
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Chico
FresnoMadera
Stockton
Monterey
Riverside
San Diego
Sacramento
Bakersfield
Los Angeles
Santa Barbara
San Francisco
San Luis Obispo
Voting Propensity by Zip:Overall
Registered PercentagesMuch lower than average
Lower than average
Average
Higher than average
Much higher than average
Missing Data
¯
Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips. (b) A hot spot is defined as an area that is overperforming relative to state averages for whites,whereas a cold spot reflects an underperforming area. In the legend, much higher than average = more than 1.5 standard deviations above the norm;higher than average = more than 1 standard deviations above the norm; average = at the mean level and under 1 standard deviation above or belowthe state average; lower than average = 1 to 1.5 standard deviations below the norm; and much lower than average = more than 1.5 standarddeviations below the norm. (c) 1.96 standard deviations is inapplicable because the categories would not conform to the 0-100% range. Source: Registration propensities are based on registrars' data aggregated by Political Data Incorporated (download date June 1, 2014) and on 2012 American Community Survey 5-year estimates.
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Chico
Fresno
Madera
Stockton
Monterey
Sacramento
San Francisco
Northern CA Hotspots of Early Voters by Zip:Whites
Early Voter PercentagesMuch lower than average
Lower than average
Average
Higher than average
Much higher than average
Missing Data
County Boundaries
¯
Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips. (b) A hot spot is defined as an area that is overperforming relative to state averages for whites,whereas a cold spot reflects an underperforming area. In the legend, much higher than average = more than 1.96 standard deviations above the norm; higher than average = more than 1 standard deviations above the norm; average = at the mean level and under 1 standard deviation above or below the state average; lower than average = 1 to 1.96 standard deviations below the norm; and much lower than average = more than 1.96 standard deviations below the norm. (c) Map reflects patterns of early voter concentrations using within county estimates. County findings are presented by Californiaregions for summary purposes. Source: Proportions of early voters are based on data obtained from Political Data Incorporated (PDI) (downloadedon June 1, 2014).
Much lower than averageLower than averageAverage
Higher than averageMuch higher than averageMissing DataCounty Boundaries
Voting Percentages
Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips. (b) A hot spot is defined as an area that is overperforming relative to state averages, whereas a cold spot reflects an underperforming area. In the legend, much higher than average = more than 1.5 standard deviations above the norm; higher than average = more than 1 standard deviations above the norm; average = at the mean level and under 1 standard deviation above or below the state average; lower than average = 1 to 1.5 standard deviations below the norm; and much lower than average = more than 1.5 standard deviations below the norm. 1.96 standard deviations are inapplicable because the categories do not conform to the 0-100% range. Source: Registration propensities are based on registrars’ data aggregated by Political Data Incorporated (download date June 1, 2014) and on 2012 American Community Survey 5-year estimates.
Voting Propensity by Zip Code,Overall
Policy Recommendations • A representative electorate requires collective
commitment, effort, and outreach
• State leaders and elections officials need to be
proactive to ensure eligible voters have access to
the ballot o Registration needs to be as “automatic” as possible
o Polling places need to be accessible in terms of language access and
access for voters with disabilities
o Voters need to be educated about their eligibility and reforms such as
same day registration or early voting
o “Overperforming” jurisdictions need to be studied to determine the
reasons underlying their success