thesis presentation copy
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WEF NexusAmulti-criteriadecisionevaluationofpolicyinstrumentsontheLitaniRiverBasin
JadTahaElBaba
ThesisAdvisor:Dr.NadimFarajallaThesisCo-Advisor:Dr.HassanHarajli
10/08/2016
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WEF NexusAmulti-criteriadecisionanalysisofPolicyInstrumentsontheLitaniRiverBasin
•ResourcePolicies&Planingbecamemypassion•IpreviouslystudiedenergyscenariosforLebanonusingMCDA
•IwasintroducedtotheNexusconceptwhileworkingatIFI
•TowhatconcernpolicymakingwithintheNexusresourcesdecisionshouldn'tbetakeninisolation
•Itisanareawhereadequateresearchwasstilllacking
•IwasconvincedthatMCDAisaclearfitforWEFNexusMethodology
•IwantedtoapplymyideainLebanon,theLitaniwasthecasestudythatwasmostimpactful
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Background
Food
•TheagriculturalsectorinLebanonsuffersfromdecreaseinproductivity,recentlybeenaggravatedbytheSyrianconflict.
• Productioncostshaveincreased,farmersareforcedtobuymoreexpensiveLebaneseorimportedagriculturalinputs
Water
•Theuseofwaterresourcesisapproachingunsustainablelevels
•Droughtoccurrencemorefrequentoverthelast40years,incidentsgettingcloserintime
•ApreviewofwhatitisinstoreforLebanonunderaclimatechangescenario
Energy
•Lebaneseconsumershavetopayadoubleelectricitybill
•Theelectricitysectorisheavilysubsidised
•EDLrunningonadeficitformanyyearsmakingitunabletoinvestinnewpowerplantsandmeetthegrowingdemand.
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WEF Nexus
Water • Energyisusedintransportation,treatment,desalinationanddistribution.• 7%ofcommercialenergyproductionisusedgloballyformanagingtheworld’sfreshwatersupply.
• Thefoodsectorissignificantactorinaffectingwaterquality.
Food • Intheagriculturesector60-80%percentoftotalglobalfreshwaterwithdrawalsareforirrigation,makingitthelargestuserofwater• Thefoodsupplychainconsumeabout30%oftotalglobalenergy.Energyisrequiredtoproduce,transportanddistributefood• Petroleumhasasignificantimportanceinfoodproductionthroughfuelinputs(suchastransportandcoolingfacilities)andproducts(suchasfertilisers).
• Foodproductscanalsobeinputsforenergyproduction,biofuelsgenerate1.8%oftheglobalelectricityproduced
Energy • Thermalpowerplantsuselargeamountsofwaterforcooling• Hydropowerplantsusesignificantquantitiesoflandandinterferewithexistingwaterflows,sedimentload,nutrientflowsandwaterquality
• Significantquantitiesofwaterarealsorequiredforotherenergyprocessingactivities,suchasrefiningoilproductsormanufacturingsyntheticfuels.
• Energyisusedbythefoodsectorforirrigation,harvestingandprocessing.
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Thesis Objective
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergy
• UsingtheMCDAmethodology,theproposedframeworkwillbetailoredtolocalconditions,takesintoconsiderationdataavailabilityespeciallyinadevelopingcountrycontext
Propose a WEF Nexus Assessment Tool01
• TheLitaniRiverisaninterestingcasefortheWEFNexus,itisthemainsourceofHydroelectricpower,itfeesalargeareaofirrigatedlandandisamainsourceofdomesticwater
Apply the Framework on the Litani River Basin02
• Engageasmanystakeholders,introducesystemthinkingintopublicresourceplanningandrecommendpolicyimplementationandinstitutionalreforms
Question the decision making process of the Lebanese Government 03
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Nexus Methodologies
• EnergyAssessmenttools:TheMESSAGE,MARKALandLEAP
• WaterAssessmenttools:WEAPandPODIUM(waterscarcityandfoodsecurity)
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyFragmented Decision Making Analytical Tools1
• CLEW,LCAandFAONexusMethodology
• Thesemethodologieswerenotusedinthisstudyforthefollowingreasons:
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyNexus Methodologies Assessment Tools2
a. Focusononeresourceandignoretheothersb. Evaluationsarestrategiclongtermandarenotfitforpolicyimplementationc. Examiningeachmethodologyistimeconsumingd. Datarequiremente. Costlyf. NotfitfortheinterdisciplinaryrequirementsofaNexusMethodologyg. Nostakeholderengagement
Literaturereview
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Multi-Criteria Decision AnalysisLiteraturereview
• EnergyPlanning• WaterPlanning• AgriculturalPlanning
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyMCDA Application2
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyDecision Aiding Tool1
• ThenumberMCDApapers increasedfromsingledigits intheearly90’s tohundredsinthelate2000’s
• Applicationsthatrequirestrategydevelopment,stakeholderengagement,andintegratedenvironmentalassessmentaremoredominant
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyClear Fit for Nexus Assessment 3
• LowDataRequirements• StakeholderEngagements• InterdisciplinaryFlexibility• Tailoredtolocalconditions
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Proposed FrameworkMCDANexusMethodology
Input:LiteratureReviewFieldVisitsInterviews
Selecting Policy Instrument1.
Input:LiteratureReviewFieldVisitsInterviewsDataAvailability
Selecting Evaluation Criteria
2.Input:EmpiricalDataQualitativeDataCalculation:MAUTSMART
Evaluation of Policy Instruments4.
Input:StakeholdersEngagement(Surveys)Calculation:AHP
Weighting Evaluation Criteria3.
Input:ResultsCalculation:Highlightweightsofmaincriteria
Sensitivity Analysis5.
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Policy Interventions
Objectives
Strategies
Reduce Groundwater pumping Improve Water Quality Increase Return in Agriculture Production
Infrastructure Projects Water Demand Reduction Treat Waste Water Decrease Cost of
Agriculture Input
Canal 800
Leakage Control
Water Storage
Sprinklers & Drip Irrigation
Crop Change
Water Tariffs and Water Meters
CDR WWTP
CDM WWTP
Tax Breaks
Market Access
Solar Pumps
Selecting Policy Instruments LitaniRiverPolicyOptions
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Reducing Ground Water PumpingInfrastructureProjects
WatersourcesLitaniriverbasin
31.1%
21.6%23.2%
24.12%
River GroundWater WaterStorage None
CanalforIrrigationfeedingMarjeyounarea110MCM$400M15,000ha60%<hydropower
Canal 8001.
Decreasewatersystemloosesby30%
Leakage Control2.
Theconstructionof2newdamsand6artificialhilllakes135MCM$418M15,0000ha
Water Storage3.
WaterSourcesinLebanon
27.1%
21.5% 15.7%
35.78%
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Reducing Ground Water PumpingDemandReductionScenarios
10,000sprinklersanddripirrigationDecreasewaterconsumptionby30.1%
Sprinklers Drip Irrigation1.
HighPricesatFarmGateHighYieldsLowWaterDemand1%decreaseinwater24.1%increaseinnetreturnfromagriculture
Crop Change2.
IncreasePricesfromLitaniIncreasePricefromWaterEstablishmentsDecreaseDemandforwaterinagricultureby5%
Water Tariffs Water Meters
3.
WatersourcesLitaniriverbasin
31.1%
21.6%23.2%
24.12%
River GroundWater WaterStorage None
WaterSourcesinLebanon
27.1%
21.5% 15.7%
35.78%
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Improve Water QualityWasterWaterTreatmentPlants
WWTPCDM WWTPCDR
Theconstructionof6WasteWaterTreatmentPlant$9.94M14,840m3/day51,550(2005estimate)people11towns
CDM WWTP Plan1.Theconstructionof7WasteWaterTreatmentPlant$105M118,530m3/day446,000(2005estimate)people75towns
CDR WWTP Plan2.
TreatedWater UntreatedWater
Regional Average
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Increase Return in Agricultural InputDecreaseCostofAgriculturalInput
Remove5%customsTariffsfromAgricultureinput:Fertilisers,Seeds,Machinery
Tax Breaks1.
TheconstructionofnewCOOPsIncreasePriceatfarmgateby10%
Market Access2.
15,000newSolarPumpsSubsidise10%oftheirinitialcost(customtariffsandsoftloans)
Solar Pumps3.
20%IncreaseinAgriculturalInput
58%Accesstonaturalresources
wascausedby:50% Decrease Yield
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Selecting Evaluation Criteria
Social
• Employment• SocialAcceptability• LandUseChange
Cost
• CapitalCost• ValueofAgProduce/AnnualCost
• UnitofIrrigatedLand/AnnualCost
Energy
• ElectricityAffordability• EnergyImports• EnergyConsumed/IrrigatedLand
• FossilEnergyConsumed/IrrigatedLand
Water
• WaterAffordability• GroundWaterBudget• WaterQuality• WaterConsumed/IrrigatedLand
Food
• ChangeinIncomefromAg/AgLand
• FoodImports• Yield/WaterConsumed• FossilEnergy/AmountofCropsProduced
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Evaluation of Policy Instruments DataAcquisition
LandAreaperCropLandAreaperCroppereachirrigation
technique
Agricultural Activity
PriceofEnergypersourceEnergyConsumptionperwatersource
Energy Characteristic
PricesatthefarmgateWaterDemandperCropCropYieldsCostofProduction
Crop Characteristic
PriceofwaterpersourceWater Characteristic
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ResultsInfrastructureProjects
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ResultsDemandReduction
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ResultsTreatingWasteWater
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ResultsDecreaseAgriculturalInput
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Sensitivity AnalysisCostCriteria
0
15
30
45
60
Canal800 LeakageControl WaterStorage CropChange SprkDripIrrigakon WaterTariffs CDMWWTP CDRWWTP TaxBreaks COOP SolarPumping
13.5828.28
18.7030.73
17.6923.7224.6732.92
13.4923.0622.53
Cost Energy Food Water Social
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Sensitivity AnalysisEnergyCriteria
0
20
40
60
80
Canal800 LeakageControl WaterStorage CropChange SprkDripIrrigakon WaterTariffs CDMWWTP CDRWWTP TaxBreaks COOP SolarPumping
46.532.333.1
41.437.729.9
54.133.336.740.3
0.7
Cost Energy Food Water Social
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Institutional FrameworkGovernmentEntitiesExpectedRolebyLaw
CDR
Water Establishments
Ministry of Energy & Water
Ministry of Agriculture
Ministry of Health
Ministry of Environment
Litani River Authority
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Discussion
• WastefulConsumption• Thisevaluationoffersasystemperspectiveforreducingleakage,specificallyfromEnergyandFoodperspectives• BetterWaterAvailabilityLessEnergyConsumptionandMoreFoodSecurity
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyLeakage control is a priority2
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyWWTP with an alternative Energy Source1
• Free-upwaterconsumptioninagriculturefromenergyprices.PerformsbetterinEnergyImports• CDMperformsworsethanCDRduringtheevaluation,shouldbeincludedinoneWWTPmasterplan
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyIncreasing Water Tariffs3
• Thoughtasasustainablemarketsolutionforreducingconsumption• IntheAgriculturesectorthisprovedtobeharmful,itwouldcauseLessyields,MoreEnergyConsumptionandlowerreturnfromagriculture.
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyMarket Access for Farmers4
• Shouldtakeintoconsiderationenergyconsumedforfoodtransportation• Viableoptionthatincreaseagriculturalproductivitywithlowcostofimplementation
Analysis
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Discussion
• Feasibilityofimplementationshouldbeexaminedbutaremainsaseriousoptiontobeconsidered• Performswellinallmaincriteria
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyCrop Change 6
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyTax Breaks5
• Negativelyaffectsemployment,butreliabledataismissinginthisregard• Examinetheneedsoflocalmanufacturingproduction
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergySolar Pumps7
• Mostpopularoptionswhencommunityleadersweresurveyed• Increasegroundwaterpumpingtounsustainablelevelsifsubsidiesaretoogenerous
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyCanal 800 & Water Storage8
• Canal800worstinEnergyCriteriavsbestinFoodCriteriavsGoodWaterBenefits• WaterStoragesamebenefitswithouttheEnergyImplicationsbutwithwaterqualityimplications• Canal800>WaterStorageifsustainablepowersupplyoptionsareprovided
Analysis
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ConclusionRecommendation
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyCentral Planning Agency for Water Resources1
• Without Institutional Reforms this evaluation can create dialogue betweengovernmentinstitutions
• Optimalifperformedbyacentralplanningagencythatcantakeintoconsiderationtrade-offsandsynergiesbetweenresources,securitythreatsandsocialconcerns.
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergySystem Thinking Proved to be valuable in resource management2
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ConclusionLimitations
• IncludeQualitativeCriteriathatmeasuresthefeasibilityofImplementationforeachpolicy
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyFeasibility of Implementation2
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyThe policy instruments should match in scope1
• LowerscopepolicyinstrumentsscoredworseintheMCDAevaluation
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyStakeholder Engagement: Determining Weights3
• Moreresourcesandmoretime• Hardtoelicitcriteriapreference• Changetheprocessofapproachingstakeholders:roundtablemeetings,groupmeetings,workshops…
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ConclusionRecommendationforFutureStudies
• EnergyConsumptionperWaterSource• EnergyConsumptioninFoodprocessing(Transportation,RefrigerationandDistribution)
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyGeneration of local data on:1
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyInclude more policy options:2
FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress
EnergyEnergyExtend the system boundaries towards the National Level3
• RemovingElectricitySubsidies• WaterDesalinationforIrrigation
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Thank You