thomas a. danjczek president steel manufacturers association february 23, 2012 london, england...
TRANSCRIPT
Thomas A. DanjczekPresidentSteel Manufacturers AssociationFebruary 23, 2012London, England
Minimill Drivers in the North American Steel Industry
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Outline
•About the SMA
•Changes
•Steel Demand Drivers & Comments
•Raw Materials Drivers
•Energy Drivers
•Final Thoughts
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About the SMA
-Composed of 35 North American electric arc furnace (“EAF”) steel producing Member Companies, and 123 Associate Member steel industry suppliers
-Today, roughly two-thirds of U.S. steel production comes from the scrap-based EAF process, up from just 10% in the early 1970s
-SMA Members account for approximately 80% of total domestic steel capacity
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Where SMA Member EAFs are located…CRU World Steel - 2012
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CRU World Steel - 2012 Changes
Deeper Recession
Variable Cost Control
Engineers
Scrap Availability
High Unemployment
Labor Intensity
Inventory Levels
China
Safety
Consolidations
Customer Requirements
Environmental Regulations
Foreign Ownership
Transportation Costs
Ore Availability
Energy Costs
Currency
State-Owned Enterprises
Other Factors…
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CRU World Steel - 2012 Steel Changes
1970 2010 2011 Comment
World Steel Production 595 1414 1550 Growth in developing World(mmt)
EAF Production <10%(e) 27% 28%(World - % of Production)
EAF Production <10%(e) 63% 64% Minimill Growth(U.S. - % of production)
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Capacity Utilization (%)
In USA, raw steel capacity utilization was 75% in 2011
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Finished steel demand drivers in US
Actual Fitted
Three variables drive demand:• NA auto build• Non-residential construction• Appliance shipmentsR² = 85%
Source: First River
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U.S. finished steel demand forecast
Actual ADC
Forecast
Source: CSM, FW Dodge, AHAM, First River
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Auto build & non-res construction are recovering,but not to previous peak
NA Auto Build (Million Units)
10Source: CSM Worldwide, FW Dodge
ForecastNon-Res Construction
(Million Sq. Feet) Forecast
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• Underlying Weak Economy, with less than 3% GDP and estimates downward
• Recovery underway, but very slow
• North American steel market under pressure with unused capacity
• Increased exports and percent imports (5mmt of semi’s imports) YOY, Impact of currency changes
• Not normal cycle of recession, overcapacity; new supply coming on
• Relative strong demand in auto; construction lagging
• Raw material costs, and variable cost controls are major drivers
• Scrap prices trends unknown with developing world demand lower next two months – too early to call a trend
• Economic growth turning point is always two quarters away
• Market cap values at historic lows
Comments on Current N.A. Steel IndustryCRU World Steel - 2012
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Raw Material Cost and Availability is #1 Issue for
NAFTA Producers• Many countries continue to impose a variety of restrictions on exports of vital raw
materials including scrap:– Export prohibitions
– Export duties
– Export quotas
– Other measures
• Trade-distorting restrictions on exports of raw materials– Give domestic producers in the exporting country an unfair advantage
– Increase worldwide costs of production
– Place a heavy burden on steel industries in developing countries that do not have substantial iron ore reserves or steel scrap supplies
• Three Challenges– Export Restraints
– EAF Capacity Expansion
– Long Lead Time for Recycling Network
ScrapCRU World Steel - 2012
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Scrap demand (mt) – 2017
Scrap Demand Forecasts
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Share of World Scrap Exports, 2010
USA23%
EU-2721%
Japan7%
Canada6%
Russian Federation5%
Other38% USA
EU-27
Japan
Canada
Russian Federation
Other
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Scrap Exports as a Percentage of Steel Production, 2010
0.00%
3.60%
0.00%
25.54%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
Sc
rap
Ex
po
rts
/Ste
el
Pro
du
cti
on
China Russia India USA
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Scrap Pricing Volatility Continues
• Global Demand and the relative value of the US dollar to other currencies determine the volume of exported material.
• Ferrous scrap exports exceeded 20 million tons in 2010 for the third consecutive year and will set a new annual record in 2011 (estimate - 24 million tons)
• Export restrictions on ferrous scrap have been enacted by 26 countries.
• With global steel output on the rise, prices for ferrous scrap in the US have decoupled from US mill demand.
• Steel production should be based on comparative advantage (raw materials, energy, capital).
• Need reciprocity.
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Abundant Domestic Natural Gas is a Game Changer
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Natural Gas Price Projections Remain Low
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EPA Mandates and Coal Plant Retirements: An Orderly Transition or Big Trouble?
• Coal Plant Retirements: How Much? How Soon?– Estimates Range from 20,000- 60,000 MWs by 2018– Announced Retirements
• 8,700 MWs by 2015• 13,000 MWs by 2018• Retiring Units On Average Began Commercial service in 1956• Average Unit Size = 166 MWs• 23 units Are Smaller less than 100 MWs
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Near Term Impacts
• Output From Coal Fired Generation has declined slightly, but Still Accounts for 45% of Electricity Generated
• Gas Demand From the Electric Sector Continues to Increase
• Energy Produced By Renewable Sources (Mostly Wind) has Increased Substantially, but Remains Less than 2% of Generation Supply
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Gas Will Remain the Dominant Fuel For Electric Generation
• Coal Technologies are Struggling– Coal Gasification (Duke)– Carbon Capture and Storage (AEP)
• No Supply Technologies are Remotely Competitive with Gas-Fired Generation
• Nuclear, Wind and Solar are Heavily Dependent on Federal Subsidies
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Gas Will Remain the Dominant Fuel For Electric Generation
Energy DriversCRU World Steel - 2012
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Energy Concerns
• Utility Rate Increases Driven by Coal Retirements, Environmental Compliance Costs, Building Gas-Fired Units, Grid Upgrades, Clean Energy and “Smart Grid” Investments
• Increasing Intermittent Generation (Wind and Solar) Will Present Reliability Questions
• Federal Dominance of Grid Expansion and Cost Allocation
• Shift in Clean Energy Mandates From Federal Budget to Utility Ratepayers
Energy DriversCRU World Steel - 2012
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Final Thoughts
• Status quo of scrap restrictions is unsustainable.• U.S. is in a traffic jam, moving slightly forward, but don’t
know other consequences. Don’t look to Washington, DC for help. Gridlock continues
• Environment of uncertainty and volatility will continue in U.S. industry until economic fundamentals are in equilibrium. Limited visibility…
• Reasons for optimism in steel in U.S.:– Scrap-based, 75% of cost – local supply– Low cost on global basis (energy is neutral, labor less than 10%, others have
higher transportation costs)– Relatively strong U.S. market and U.S. resiliency– Better U.S. company balance sheets
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