Thoughts on ITC Project Surveys: Now and into the Future

Geoffrey T. Fong, Ph.D.Department of Psychology

University of Waterloo

ITC-TTURC Project Annual MeetingPortland, Oregon—March 1, 2008

Country/ProjectYear

started Population % World

% World's

Cigs (Vol.)

United States 2002 303,295,254 4.55% 6.80%Canada 2002 33,052,864 0.50% 0.65%United Kingdom 2002 60,609,153 0.91% 1.20%Australia 2002 21,129,222 0.32% 0.40%Ireland 2003 4,301,000 0.06% 0.12%Thailand 2004 62,828,706 0.94% 0.68%Malaysia 2004 27,329,000 0.41% 0.37%South Korea 2005 48,512,000 0.73% 2.10%Mexico 2006 106,535,000 1.60% 0.90%Uruguay 2006 3,340,000 0.05% 0.03%China 2006 1,321,674,000 19.81% 33.90%France 2007 64,102,140 0.96% 1.10%New Zealand 2007 4,239,600 0.06% 0.06%Germany 2007 82,314,900 1.23% 2.30%Netherlands 2008 16,387,773 0.25% 0.30%

TOTAL IN ITC PROJECT 2,159,650,612 32.37% 50.91%

Bangladesh 2008 158,665,000 2.38% 0.30%Sudan 2008 41,236,378 0.62% 0.10%India 2009 1,169,016,000 17.52% 1.82%

TOTAL IN DEVELOPMENT 1,327,681,000 20.52% 2.22%

GRAND TOTAL 3,487,331,612 52.89% 53.13%WORLD POPULATION 6,671,226,000

Brazil 187,521,914 2.81% 1.90%Argentina 39,531,000 0.59% 0.71%Hungary 10,030,000 0.15% 0.30%

One-third of the world’s population

One-half of the world’s cigarette smokers

If Bangladesh, Sudan, and India join ITC, then:

Over half of world’s population

Over two-thirds of the world’s tobacco users

Progress of the FCTC

Unanimously adopted in 2003

Already ratified by 152 nations

Conferences of the Parties:

COP-1: Feb 2006 in Geneva

COP-2: July 2007 in Bangkok

COP-3: Nov 2008 in S. Africa

Research—>Policy

Over 120 countries must implement some kind of ad/ promo/sponsorship restriction/ban within 5 years

Over 100 countries must enhance their warning labels within 3 years

U.S.

Mexico

Canada

Uruguay

France

U.K. Ireland Germany

India

Bangladesh

Thailand Sudan

Korea

China

Malaysia

Australia

New Zealand

Netherlands

The ITC World

The ITC Surveys

Country Mode N (smoke rs)

N (others)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1 Canada 2,000

2 United Sta tes 2,000

3 United King dom 2,000

4 Australia 2,000

5 Ireland/ Scotla nd 2,000 900 NS

6 Thaila nd 2,000 1,00 0 You th

7 Malaysia 2,000 1,00 0 You th

8 South Korea 1,000

9 China 5,600 1,40 0 NS

10 Mexico 1,000

11 Urugua y 1,000

12 New Zeala nd 2,000

13 France 1,700 500 NS

14 German y 1,700 1,00 0 NS

15 Netherlan ds * 2, 100 *

16 Sudan 2,800 2,00 0 SL,NS

17 Banglad esh 3, 000 ? 1,00 0 SL,NS

18 India 12, 000 ? 2,00 0 SL,NS * The ITC Netherlands Survey will sample 1,600 from a large internet Panel and 500 using RDD phone methods

7

Warning labels

– UK (2003): Text only– UK (2008): Graphic– Thailand (2006): Graphic– Australia (2006): Graphic– Canada (2009): Graphic, Rd 2– Other countries: Graphic– China (2009): Text only

ITC Evaluation of FCTC Policies (Partial List)

Product policies

– UK (EU): 10-1-10 regulation– US/Canada: RIP– All: product; product x behavior Light/mild

– UK (2003) – Australia (2005)

Smoke-free

– Ireland (2004)– Scotland (2005)– England (2007)– US, Canada: sub-national– France (2007/2008)– Germany (2007/2008)– China (partial in 2008?)– Netherlands (Part 2–2008)

Advertising/Promotion

– UK (2003): Comprehensive– Thailand (2006): POS bans– China (2011): Comprehensive

Taxation

– Multiple countries (ongoing)

Illicit trade– China (2008): prevalence

Temporal trends of the ITC Project

Recruitment and partnership with low-income and low-middle income countries:

— Bangladesh, India, Sudan

Greater geographical representation:

— Latin America: Mexico, Uruguay; possibilities in Argentina, Brazil(?), Panama(?)

— South Asia (India, Bangladesh)

— Africa

We will soon be in 5 of the 6 WHO Regions (Sudan is EMRO, but Southern Sudan is really AFRO)

Where do we stand now in the tobacco control community and in global health?

Greater recognition of the power and value of the ITC Project from governments, global research community, advocates

Strong connections with important groups in Civil Society, especially Framework Convention Alliance and the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids

Explicit, direct linkages to governments: China, France, Malaysia

Readiness for support

Some exciting present and future possibilities

Europe: New workplan for the European Commission has just been issued. Wording is very nice for an ITC Europe Project.

China: Stronger linkages with advocacy activities (TFK); Chinese government may be moving more quickly in fulfilling their FCTC obligations (e.g., smoke-free). Huge interest.

Latin America: Lot of interest among countries; unclear about funding sources

Sudan: fantastic research team in Khartoum; would be the first ever broad-based study of tobacco use in that country; good opportunities for directly effecting tobacco control policies.

Some exciting present and future possibilities

Bangladesh: high-profile, high visibility project because of the WHO economic study in 2005; Bangladesh is the first country to ratify the FCTC. The first evaluation effort for their 2006 national tobacco control act.

India: for obvious reasons; need to move forward

Growing structures for dissemination of ITC findings (and those of others relevant to FCTC policies):

Labeling web resource: http://www.tobaccolabels.org

Funding for a product resource

Other web resource possibilities?

Funding Challenges

Four Country: even if we get the Four Country R01 renewal, we will be 300K short of the fieldwork starting in Wave 8

SEA: will be short of funding after 2008

India: need funding for the main study

Capacity at the DMC as well as at our major ITC Project centres

Waterloo has 1-2 postdocs: know anyone?

Funding Possibilities?

IDRC/RITC

European Commission

Bloomberg: growing interest (e.g.,Jim’s grant for Mexico; other possibilities in Latin America?)

Gates Foundation

Non-traditional funding sources

Tobacco Control Funders’ Roundtable