trafford noteholders presentation 05.09.12. final · presentation to trafford centre noteholders...
TRANSCRIPT
Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders5 September 2012
Slide 2
Capital Shopping Centres Group PLCPresentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders
This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” regarding the belief or current expectations of Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC, its Directors and other members of its senior management about Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC’s businesses, financial performance and results of operations. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Rather, they are based on current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC and are difficult to predict, that may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from any future results, performance or developments expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation. Except as required by applicable law, Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC makes no representation or warranty in relation to them and expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
Any information contained in this presentation on the price at which shares or other securities in Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC have been bought or sold in the past, or on the yield on such shares or other securities, should not be relied upon as a guide to future performance.
Trafford Centre introduction DVD
Corporate overview David Fischel
Financial details Matthew Roberts
Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth
Questions
Appendices
Slide 3
Corporate overview - David Fischel
Slide 4
Scale, focus and quality set CSC apart
Investment
properties:
£7.0bn
Slide 5
Like-for-like net rental income2012 reflects lower occupancy following tenant failures
Slide 6
Prime UK shopping centres attractive asset class for major international investors
Highest ever yields relative to risk free rate and corporate bonds – income compelling
Continued attractiveness of CSC centres to investors
Slide 7
Overview of first half 2012 resultsRobust operating performance supporting earnings and valuation
Footfall and retailer sales encouragingly outperformed national benchmarks
Like-for-like net rental income down 2 per cent
Underlying earnings up 4.8 per cent
EPS 8.1p; 2011 8.0p
NAV per share 390p; total financial return for six months 2.3 per cent
Strong balance sheet; debt to assets ratio 48% and 6.6 year average debt maturity
79 new leases signed, £15m new annual rent
� 6% above previous passing rent
Major organic projects positioning the business for the future
� pursuing planning consents
� acquisition of adjacent land holdings for future potential
� potential pipeline of £1 billion over 10 years including major extensions and active management initiatives
Slide 8
Building on the strong momentum in the business … despite backdrop of weak UK economy
Each CSC centre to provide compelling choice for
� more demanding shoppers
� retailers with multiple distribution channels
Focus on providing customer experience and service
Addressing risks of lease expiry and tenant failures
Tenant mix is key – at appropriate rental levels
Strong pipeline of new initiatives
Slide 9
Financial details - Matthew Roberts
Slide 10
Robust financial positionNet debt to assets 48%
30 June 2012 31 December 2011
Total properties £6,980m £6,960m
Net external debt £(3,344)m £(3,374)m
Net debt to assets 48% 48%
Cash £100m £91m
Undrawn committed corporate facilities £320m £330m
Net assets £2,964m £2,946m
Adjusted net assets per share 390p 391p
Weighted average cost of gross debt 5.4% 5.6%
Weighted average maturity of gross debt 6.6 years 7.0 years
Slide 11
Underlying earnings
First Half
2012
£m
First Half
2011
£m
Net rental income from continuing operations 181.8 177.9
Administration expenses (13.3) (11.8)
Net finance cost (underlying) (101.9) (101.5)
Dividend from US investment 3.2 3.9
Other(1) (0.3) (2.2)
Underlying earnings 69.5 66.3
Interest cover 1.70 1.70
Earnings per share (pence) 8.1 8.0
Average shares in issue 853.6 828.2
Dividend per share 5.0 5.0
(1) Includes (2012 £2.9 million; 2011 £2.4 million) convertible bond interest charged directly to reserves in financial statements but included in the calculation of EPS
Slide 12
Weighted average debt maturity of 6.6 years
Largely fixed, weighted average cost 5.4%
£320 million undrawn committed corporate facilities
Headroom of £420m
2012-2017 Capex: £47m committed; £200m uncommitted (excludes major extensions)
Debt maturity
Slide 13
Future refinancing planExtend maturities and increase liquidity
Current debt largely on asset specific non recourse basis
Considering early replacement of 2015-17 maturities; further update will be given in February 2013
Continue with diversified funding structure, allowing opportunistic access to bank and bond markets
Maintain financing guidelines
Slide 14
Trafford CentreFinancial details
Slide 15
Trafford Centre loan notes analysis
Initial launch February 2000
Second issue July 2005
Issue size (total) £864.5m
Outstanding amount – 30 June 2012 £742.2m(1)
Fixed: Floating(2)
ratio 65% : 35%
Security Trustee Deutsche Bank
Hedge counterparties Deutsche Bank & RBS
Liquidity facility Lloyds Banking Group
Cash Manager Deutsche Bank
(1) For analysis by class see slide 16
(2) Floating rate notes are fully hedged with interest rate swaps and caps
Slide 16
Analysis by class
Baa2
Baa2
Aa2
Aa2
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
Moody’s
BBB
BBB
AA
AA
AAA
AAA
AAA
Fitch S&P£m
Oct 20228.28%BBB50.0D2
April 2035Libor +0.80%BBB29.1D1(N)
July 2038Libor +0.33%A+20.0B2
July 20297.03%A+93.4B
July 2038Libor +0.29%A+188.5A3
July 20336.50%A+340.0A2
July 2015Libor +0.20%A+21.2A1 (N)
MaturityCoupon RatingAmount Class
Slide 17
Amortisation profile
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
Jan
-16
Jan
-17
Jan
-18
Jan
-19
Jan
-20
Jan
-21
Jan
-22
Jan
-23
Jan
-24
Jan
-25
Jan
-26
Jan
-27
Jan
-28
Jan
-29
Jan
-30
Jan
-31
Jan
-32
Jan
-33
Jan
-34
Jan
-35
Period
Ba
lan
ce
of
No
tes
Ou
tsta
nd
ing
(£
m)
B2 A3 D1N A2 B D2 A1N
Slide 18
Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR)Calculated using twelve months historic cash flows
June 2012 Quarterly report 1.24 : 1
Components:
� Rental and other income less costs £82.2 million
� Interest payments and note amortisation £66.4 million (£52.4m interest, £14.0m amortisation)
June 2012 Quarterly report adjusted for
Interest Rate Floor termination fee 1.39:1
Components:
� Rental and other income less costs £82.2 million
� Interest payments and note amortisation £59.1 million (£45.1m interest(1)
, £14.0m amortisation)
(1) Interest cost excludes £ 7.25m paid to Deutsche Bank on 28th July 2011 as consideration to buy out an Interest Rate Floor
Slide 19
DSCR historyImproving due to increasing rental income
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
Slide 20
ValuationValuation of £1,643m excluding Barton Square (£81m) and other land (£9m) as at 30 June 2012
Trafford Centre (excluding Barton Square) net initial yield of 4.7% and nominal equivalent yield of 5.5%
Ratio of Trafford Centre valuation to outstanding loan note: 45%
RentAnnual property income of £83m excluding Barton Square (£3m); ERV of £101m (excluding Barton Square)
Headline rent prime ITZA psf £400
OccupancyCurrent occupancy rate of 97%* by rent as at 30 June 2012
Key Trafford Centre metrics
Site location* Occupancy defined as passing rent of let and under offer units expressed as a percentage of the passing rent of let and under offer units plus ERV of unlet units, excluding
development and recently completed properties. Units let to tenants currently in administration and still trading are treated as let and those no longer trading are treated as unlet
Slide 21
Trafford Centre operating cash flow*
(47.9)(45.1)Net interest paid
76.082.2Operating cash flow
28.137.1Net operating cash flow
(5.0)(3.3)Property and other costs
3.6(2)
3.0(1)Other income
77.482.5Rents (including turnover rent)
Year ended
30 June 2011
£m
Year ended
30 June 2012
£m
Source: The Trafford Centre Limited Quarterly Reports: Cash flow statement and management commentary.
* Proforma cash flow basis, excluding the exceptional cash flow of REIT entry, corporation tax and interest rate floor termination
(1) Excludes £0.7m of premiums received
(2) Excludes £1.8m of premiums received
Slide 22
Trafford Centre overview - Mike Butterworth
Slide 23
Retail mix
Slide 24
Department stores: Selfridges, Debenhams and John Lewis
Other major tenants: Marks & Spencer, Boots, Bhs
Retailers significantly expanding in 2011 and 2012 include:
� Marks & Spencer
� Debenhams
� Next
� Superdry
� Ernest Jones
New retailers in 2012 include:
� Nespresso – first stand alone UK store
� Forever 21 – fourth UK store opened July
� Lavazza
� Wokooshii, a new concept restaurant
Retail mix
Site location
Slide 25
Top 20 tenants
Rank Tenant Group % Rent
1 Arcadia (1) 6%
2 Selfridges 4%
3 Marks & Spencer 3%
4 Debenhams 3%
5 Next 3%
6 H & M 2%
7 Forever 21 2%
8 Odeon 2%
9 Boots 2%
10 Aurora Group (3)
2%
11 Signet 2%
12 J D Sports (2)
2%
13 John Lewis 1%
14 Superdry 1%
15 River Island 1%
16 Moss Bros 1%
17 HMV 1%
18 Zara 1%
19 Waterstones 1%
20 Hollister 1%
Top 20 Tenants total 41%
(1) Includes BHS
(2) Includes Bank and Cecil Gee
(3) Includes Oasis, Karen Millen, Warehouse and Coast
Slide 26
Catering and leisure
Slide 27
c. 310,000 sq. ft. devoted to catering & leisure
� Over 65 catering units generating an estimated £90m annual turnover
� Themed areas - The Orient, The Great Hall –adding a sense of theatre
Continuous evolution with brands including Tampopo, Zizzi, Nando’s and TGI
An unrivalled leisure offer:
� Odeon Multiplex cinema, Legoland Discovery
Centre, Paradise Island Adventure Golf, Aerial
Extreme (treetops adventure course)
� New aquarium attraction subject to planning
Events include:
� Celebrity Christmas lights switch on
� high profile fashion shows “Fashhhion week Big
Night Out”
� firework displays
Catering and leisure
Site location
Slide 28
Opportunities
Slide 29
Overview of Trafford Centre rent reviews and lease maturitiesSignificant opportunity in 2013
3%
8%
36%
4%
14%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Pre 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Lease maturities*Rent reviews*
* As % of 30 June 2012 passing rent
1%
20%
2%4% 4%
2%
8%
3%
10%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021+
Slide 30
Scope for asset management initiatives at Trafford Centre including:
� original structure built to accommodate additional floors enabling cost effective expansion, e.g.
– above Debenhams
– along link bridge to Barton Square
� opportunities to introduce MSU flagship stores through conversion of dormant space to additional retail, subject to planning permission
� creation of space to enable unit re-configurations
Scope for asset management initiatives at Barton Square including:
� central courtyard enclosure plans - planning consent granted
� c. 100,000 sq. ft. additional retail space –planning consent granted
� conversion of homewares unit into aquarium attraction, subject to planning permission
Significant asset management opportunities
Site location
Slide 31
Questions
Slide 32
200 units (including over 65 catering and leisure units); approximately 1.4m sq. ft. retail and 0.3m sq. ft. catering and leisure space over 2 levels
Anchor tenants: Selfridges, Debenhams, John Lewis and Marks & Spencer
Opened to public in September 1998
In addition, major 240,000 sq. ft. homeware and leisure extension (Barton Square) opened in 2008
Significant redevelopment of main entrance for additional catering in 2007 (The Great Hall)
Trafford CentreOverview
Site location
Slide 33
Appendices
Slide 34
UK’s top ranked shopping centres
Centre Location Centre Location
1 Westfield London 19 Festival Place Basingstoke
2 Bluewater Greenhithe 20 The Harlequin Watford
3 Meadowhall Sheffield 21 The Glades Bromley
4 The Trafford Centre Manchester 22 West Quay Southampton
5 Westfield Stratford 23 Eldon Square Newcastle
6 Metrocentre Gateshead 24 Silverburn Glasgow
7 Lakeside Thurrock 25 Braehead Glasgow
8 Liverpool One Liverpool 26 White Rose Shopping Centre Leeds
9 The Mall at Cribbs Causeway Bristol 27 East Kilbride Shopping Centre Glasgow
10 The Arndale Manchester 28 Churchill Square Brighton
11 Cabot Circus Bristol 29 Queensgate Centre Peterborough
12 Brent Cross London 30 Buchanan Galleries Glasgow
13 Westfield Derby 31 Golden Square Warrington
14 Bull Ring Birmingham 32 Victoria Centre Nottingham
15 Merry Hill Shopping Centre Brierley Hill 33 Chapelfield Norwich
16 Highcross Leicester 34 The Round (Telford Shopping Centre) Telford
17 St David's Cardiff 35 The Centre Livingston
18 thecentre: mk Milton Keynes
45 The Potteries Stoke-on-Trent
67 The Chimes Uxbridge
Source: PMA
* Top shopping centres on basis of PMA Retail Score (2011). CSC shopping centres highlighted
Slide 35
Large catchment area – 8.9 million people live within a 70-minute drive, 4.8 million within 45 minutes
Wealthy demographic - over 69% ABC1*, well above national average
Footfall growth each year since opening to over 30 million per annum
� 10% footfall growth 2009-2011
Loyal customer base: 21% of visitors visit at least once per week and 56% visit at least monthly
The Trafford Centre is complementary to Manchester Arndale in the city centre
Located c. 6 miles west of Manchester city centre immediately adjoining M60 motorway near its junction with the M6. 11,500 car and 350 coach parking spaces. 85% arrive by car and 15% by public transport.
Catchment North West is UK’s largest regional retail market outside London & the S.E.
Source: Experian
* UK social groups A, B and C1, defined as members of households whose chief earner’s occupation is professional, higher or intermediate management or supervisory
70 minute drivetime around Trafford Centre
Slide 36
Analysis of rental income by Sales Category
Books/Cards
3%
Ladieswear
10%
Menswear
5%
Mixed: Ladies
& Menswear
21%
Other
20%
Catering &
leisure
13%
Jewellers
5%
Anchor
Tenants
14%
Footwear
5%Phone
Retailers inc.
Mobiles
4%
* Other includes banks, childrenswear, confectionery, electrical computer retailers, gifts / soft furnishings / furniture, health and beauty, opticians, outdoor clothing / equipment, music
retailers, sportswear, toys, travel agents and office.