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Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders 5 September 2012

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Page 1: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders5 September 2012

Page 2: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 2

Capital Shopping Centres Group PLCPresentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” regarding the belief or current expectations of Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC, its Directors and other members of its senior management about Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC’s businesses, financial performance and results of operations. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Rather, they are based on current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC and are difficult to predict, that may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from any future results, performance or developments expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation. Except as required by applicable law, Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC makes no representation or warranty in relation to them and expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.

Any information contained in this presentation on the price at which shares or other securities in Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC have been bought or sold in the past, or on the yield on such shares or other securities, should not be relied upon as a guide to future performance.

Trafford Centre introduction DVD

Corporate overview David Fischel

Financial details Matthew Roberts

Trafford Centre overview Mike Butterworth

Questions

Appendices

Page 3: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 3

Corporate overview - David Fischel

Page 4: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 4

Scale, focus and quality set CSC apart

Investment

properties:

£7.0bn

Page 5: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 5

Like-for-like net rental income2012 reflects lower occupancy following tenant failures

Page 6: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 6

Prime UK shopping centres attractive asset class for major international investors

Highest ever yields relative to risk free rate and corporate bonds – income compelling

Continued attractiveness of CSC centres to investors

Page 7: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 7

Overview of first half 2012 resultsRobust operating performance supporting earnings and valuation

Footfall and retailer sales encouragingly outperformed national benchmarks

Like-for-like net rental income down 2 per cent

Underlying earnings up 4.8 per cent

EPS 8.1p; 2011 8.0p

NAV per share 390p; total financial return for six months 2.3 per cent

Strong balance sheet; debt to assets ratio 48% and 6.6 year average debt maturity

79 new leases signed, £15m new annual rent

� 6% above previous passing rent

Major organic projects positioning the business for the future

� pursuing planning consents

� acquisition of adjacent land holdings for future potential

� potential pipeline of £1 billion over 10 years including major extensions and active management initiatives

Page 8: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 8

Building on the strong momentum in the business … despite backdrop of weak UK economy

Each CSC centre to provide compelling choice for

� more demanding shoppers

� retailers with multiple distribution channels

Focus on providing customer experience and service

Addressing risks of lease expiry and tenant failures

Tenant mix is key – at appropriate rental levels

Strong pipeline of new initiatives

Page 9: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 9

Financial details - Matthew Roberts

Page 10: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 10

Robust financial positionNet debt to assets 48%

30 June 2012 31 December 2011

Total properties £6,980m £6,960m

Net external debt £(3,344)m £(3,374)m

Net debt to assets 48% 48%

Cash £100m £91m

Undrawn committed corporate facilities £320m £330m

Net assets £2,964m £2,946m

Adjusted net assets per share 390p 391p

Weighted average cost of gross debt 5.4% 5.6%

Weighted average maturity of gross debt 6.6 years 7.0 years

Page 11: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 11

Underlying earnings

First Half

2012

£m

First Half

2011

£m

Net rental income from continuing operations 181.8 177.9

Administration expenses (13.3) (11.8)

Net finance cost (underlying) (101.9) (101.5)

Dividend from US investment 3.2 3.9

Other(1) (0.3) (2.2)

Underlying earnings 69.5 66.3

Interest cover 1.70 1.70

Earnings per share (pence) 8.1 8.0

Average shares in issue 853.6 828.2

Dividend per share 5.0 5.0

(1) Includes (2012 £2.9 million; 2011 £2.4 million) convertible bond interest charged directly to reserves in financial statements but included in the calculation of EPS

Page 12: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 12

Weighted average debt maturity of 6.6 years

Largely fixed, weighted average cost 5.4%

£320 million undrawn committed corporate facilities

Headroom of £420m

2012-2017 Capex: £47m committed; £200m uncommitted (excludes major extensions)

Debt maturity

Page 13: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 13

Future refinancing planExtend maturities and increase liquidity

Current debt largely on asset specific non recourse basis

Considering early replacement of 2015-17 maturities; further update will be given in February 2013

Continue with diversified funding structure, allowing opportunistic access to bank and bond markets

Maintain financing guidelines

Page 14: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 14

Trafford CentreFinancial details

Page 15: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 15

Trafford Centre loan notes analysis

Initial launch February 2000

Second issue July 2005

Issue size (total) £864.5m

Outstanding amount – 30 June 2012 £742.2m(1)

Fixed: Floating(2)

ratio 65% : 35%

Security Trustee Deutsche Bank

Hedge counterparties Deutsche Bank & RBS

Liquidity facility Lloyds Banking Group

Cash Manager Deutsche Bank

(1) For analysis by class see slide 16

(2) Floating rate notes are fully hedged with interest rate swaps and caps

Page 16: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 16

Analysis by class

Baa2

Baa2

Aa2

Aa2

Aaa

Aaa

Aaa

Moody’s

BBB

BBB

AA

AA

AAA

AAA

AAA

Fitch S&P£m

Oct 20228.28%BBB50.0D2

April 2035Libor +0.80%BBB29.1D1(N)

July 2038Libor +0.33%A+20.0B2

July 20297.03%A+93.4B

July 2038Libor +0.29%A+188.5A3

July 20336.50%A+340.0A2

July 2015Libor +0.20%A+21.2A1 (N)

MaturityCoupon RatingAmount Class

Page 17: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 17

Amortisation profile

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

Jan

-20

Jan

-21

Jan

-22

Jan

-23

Jan

-24

Jan

-25

Jan

-26

Jan

-27

Jan

-28

Jan

-29

Jan

-30

Jan

-31

Jan

-32

Jan

-33

Jan

-34

Jan

-35

Period

Ba

lan

ce

of

No

tes

Ou

tsta

nd

ing

m)

B2 A3 D1N A2 B D2 A1N

Page 18: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 18

Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR)Calculated using twelve months historic cash flows

June 2012 Quarterly report 1.24 : 1

Components:

� Rental and other income less costs £82.2 million

� Interest payments and note amortisation £66.4 million (£52.4m interest, £14.0m amortisation)

June 2012 Quarterly report adjusted for

Interest Rate Floor termination fee 1.39:1

Components:

� Rental and other income less costs £82.2 million

� Interest payments and note amortisation £59.1 million (£45.1m interest(1)

, £14.0m amortisation)

(1) Interest cost excludes £ 7.25m paid to Deutsche Bank on 28th July 2011 as consideration to buy out an Interest Rate Floor

Page 19: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 19

DSCR historyImproving due to increasing rental income

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

Page 20: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 20

ValuationValuation of £1,643m excluding Barton Square (£81m) and other land (£9m) as at 30 June 2012

Trafford Centre (excluding Barton Square) net initial yield of 4.7% and nominal equivalent yield of 5.5%

Ratio of Trafford Centre valuation to outstanding loan note: 45%

RentAnnual property income of £83m excluding Barton Square (£3m); ERV of £101m (excluding Barton Square)

Headline rent prime ITZA psf £400

OccupancyCurrent occupancy rate of 97%* by rent as at 30 June 2012

Key Trafford Centre metrics

Site location* Occupancy defined as passing rent of let and under offer units expressed as a percentage of the passing rent of let and under offer units plus ERV of unlet units, excluding

development and recently completed properties. Units let to tenants currently in administration and still trading are treated as let and those no longer trading are treated as unlet

Page 21: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 21

Trafford Centre operating cash flow*

(47.9)(45.1)Net interest paid

76.082.2Operating cash flow

28.137.1Net operating cash flow

(5.0)(3.3)Property and other costs

3.6(2)

3.0(1)Other income

77.482.5Rents (including turnover rent)

Year ended

30 June 2011

£m

Year ended

30 June 2012

£m

Source: The Trafford Centre Limited Quarterly Reports: Cash flow statement and management commentary.

* Proforma cash flow basis, excluding the exceptional cash flow of REIT entry, corporation tax and interest rate floor termination

(1) Excludes £0.7m of premiums received

(2) Excludes £1.8m of premiums received

Page 22: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 22

Trafford Centre overview - Mike Butterworth

Page 23: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 23

Retail mix

Page 24: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 24

Department stores: Selfridges, Debenhams and John Lewis

Other major tenants: Marks & Spencer, Boots, Bhs

Retailers significantly expanding in 2011 and 2012 include:

� Marks & Spencer

� Debenhams

� Next

� Superdry

� Ernest Jones

New retailers in 2012 include:

� Nespresso – first stand alone UK store

� Forever 21 – fourth UK store opened July

� Lavazza

� Wokooshii, a new concept restaurant

Retail mix

Site location

Page 25: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 25

Top 20 tenants

Rank Tenant Group % Rent

1 Arcadia (1) 6%

2 Selfridges 4%

3 Marks & Spencer 3%

4 Debenhams 3%

5 Next 3%

6 H & M 2%

7 Forever 21 2%

8 Odeon 2%

9 Boots 2%

10 Aurora Group (3)

2%

11 Signet 2%

12 J D Sports (2)

2%

13 John Lewis 1%

14 Superdry 1%

15 River Island 1%

16 Moss Bros 1%

17 HMV 1%

18 Zara 1%

19 Waterstones 1%

20 Hollister 1%

Top 20 Tenants total 41%

(1) Includes BHS

(2) Includes Bank and Cecil Gee

(3) Includes Oasis, Karen Millen, Warehouse and Coast

Page 26: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 26

Catering and leisure

Page 27: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 27

c. 310,000 sq. ft. devoted to catering & leisure

� Over 65 catering units generating an estimated £90m annual turnover

� Themed areas - The Orient, The Great Hall –adding a sense of theatre

Continuous evolution with brands including Tampopo, Zizzi, Nando’s and TGI

An unrivalled leisure offer:

� Odeon Multiplex cinema, Legoland Discovery

Centre, Paradise Island Adventure Golf, Aerial

Extreme (treetops adventure course)

� New aquarium attraction subject to planning

Events include:

� Celebrity Christmas lights switch on

� high profile fashion shows “Fashhhion week Big

Night Out”

� firework displays

Catering and leisure

Site location

Page 28: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 28

Opportunities

Page 29: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 29

Overview of Trafford Centre rent reviews and lease maturitiesSignificant opportunity in 2013

3%

8%

36%

4%

14%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Pre 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Lease maturities*Rent reviews*

* As % of 30 June 2012 passing rent

1%

20%

2%4% 4%

2%

8%

3%

10%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021+

Page 30: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 30

Scope for asset management initiatives at Trafford Centre including:

� original structure built to accommodate additional floors enabling cost effective expansion, e.g.

– above Debenhams

– along link bridge to Barton Square

� opportunities to introduce MSU flagship stores through conversion of dormant space to additional retail, subject to planning permission

� creation of space to enable unit re-configurations

Scope for asset management initiatives at Barton Square including:

� central courtyard enclosure plans - planning consent granted

� c. 100,000 sq. ft. additional retail space –planning consent granted

� conversion of homewares unit into aquarium attraction, subject to planning permission

Significant asset management opportunities

Site location

Page 31: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 31

Questions

Page 32: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 32

200 units (including over 65 catering and leisure units); approximately 1.4m sq. ft. retail and 0.3m sq. ft. catering and leisure space over 2 levels

Anchor tenants: Selfridges, Debenhams, John Lewis and Marks & Spencer

Opened to public in September 1998

In addition, major 240,000 sq. ft. homeware and leisure extension (Barton Square) opened in 2008

Significant redevelopment of main entrance for additional catering in 2007 (The Great Hall)

Trafford CentreOverview

Site location

Page 33: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 33

Appendices

Page 34: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 34

UK’s top ranked shopping centres

Centre Location Centre Location

1 Westfield London 19 Festival Place Basingstoke

2 Bluewater Greenhithe 20 The Harlequin Watford

3 Meadowhall Sheffield 21 The Glades Bromley

4 The Trafford Centre Manchester 22 West Quay Southampton

5 Westfield Stratford 23 Eldon Square Newcastle

6 Metrocentre Gateshead 24 Silverburn Glasgow

7 Lakeside Thurrock 25 Braehead Glasgow

8 Liverpool One Liverpool 26 White Rose Shopping Centre Leeds

9 The Mall at Cribbs Causeway Bristol 27 East Kilbride Shopping Centre Glasgow

10 The Arndale Manchester 28 Churchill Square Brighton

11 Cabot Circus Bristol 29 Queensgate Centre Peterborough

12 Brent Cross London 30 Buchanan Galleries Glasgow

13 Westfield Derby 31 Golden Square Warrington

14 Bull Ring Birmingham 32 Victoria Centre Nottingham

15 Merry Hill Shopping Centre Brierley Hill 33 Chapelfield Norwich

16 Highcross Leicester 34 The Round (Telford Shopping Centre) Telford

17 St David's Cardiff 35 The Centre Livingston

18 thecentre: mk Milton Keynes

45 The Potteries Stoke-on-Trent

67 The Chimes Uxbridge

Source: PMA

* Top shopping centres on basis of PMA Retail Score (2011). CSC shopping centres highlighted

Page 35: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 35

Large catchment area – 8.9 million people live within a 70-minute drive, 4.8 million within 45 minutes

Wealthy demographic - over 69% ABC1*, well above national average

Footfall growth each year since opening to over 30 million per annum

� 10% footfall growth 2009-2011

Loyal customer base: 21% of visitors visit at least once per week and 56% visit at least monthly

The Trafford Centre is complementary to Manchester Arndale in the city centre

Located c. 6 miles west of Manchester city centre immediately adjoining M60 motorway near its junction with the M6. 11,500 car and 350 coach parking spaces. 85% arrive by car and 15% by public transport.

Catchment North West is UK’s largest regional retail market outside London & the S.E.

Source: Experian

* UK social groups A, B and C1, defined as members of households whose chief earner’s occupation is professional, higher or intermediate management or supervisory

70 minute drivetime around Trafford Centre

Page 36: Trafford Noteholders presentation 05.09.12. FINAL · Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders ... Nespresso –first stand alone UK store Forever 21 –fourth UK store opened July

Slide 36

Analysis of rental income by Sales Category

Books/Cards

3%

Ladieswear

10%

Menswear

5%

Mixed: Ladies

& Menswear

21%

Other

20%

Catering &

leisure

13%

Jewellers

5%

Anchor

Tenants

14%

Footwear

5%Phone

Retailers inc.

Mobiles

4%

* Other includes banks, childrenswear, confectionery, electrical computer retailers, gifts / soft furnishings / furniture, health and beauty, opticians, outdoor clothing / equipment, music

retailers, sportswear, toys, travel agents and office.