Trends in world wheat production - A roadmap to India for feeding the population by 2050

International Wheat Conference | September 20-25, 2015 | Sydney, AUSTRALIA

Sendhil Ramadas, Ravish Chatrath and Indu Sharma ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, Karnal | INDIA

(erstwhile Directorate of Wheat Research)

Prologue

Data and Methodology

Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security

Conclusions and Policy Implications

Presentation Outline…

Prologue

WORLD Largest grown cereal

Area 225.31 mhaProduction 731.61 mt

Yield 3250 kg/haTrade 157.58 mt

Total Use 716.36 mtEnding Stocks 226.56 mt

Source USDA

INDIA Second largest producer

Area 30.97 mha (13.75 % of world)Production 88.94 mt (12.16 % of world)

Yield 2872 kg/ha Export 2.92 mt

Total Use 94.74 mtEnding Stocks 11.90 mt

Source USDA & MoA

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Wheat is an integral part of food and nutrition security as well as economic developmentWheat is an integral part of food and nutrition security as well as economic development

2014-15

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

• Staple food for a majority of the people

• Global consumption demand at 2050 has been projected as 880 mt (FAO)

• Burgeoning population (World: 9.6 billion in 2050)

• Multiple production challenges & increasing consumption rate

• World wheat area hovering around 225 mha

• Globally, the wheat yield has to be increased by 60 % due to climate change so

as to meet the world demand by 2050 (Ray et al., 2013 – PLOS One). But as per

the current growth trend only 38 % increase seems to be possible

Rationale…Rationale…

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Rationale…Rationale…

(Ray et al., 2013 – PLOS One)

Specific ObjectivesSpecific Objectives

1.To estimate the growth and instability in area, production and yield of

wheat for major countries

2.To categorize the countries in the growth-instability matrix for

identifying the focal country

3.To lay a roadmap for feeding the population by 2050 through

sustainable wheat production

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Data and Methodology

www.fao.org http://eands.dacnet.nic.in www.usda.gov www.indiastat.com www.indexmundi.com

SecondarySecondary

Dat

aDat

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1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

A. Compound Annual Growth Rate : Y = α βt

Log Y = Log α + t Log β

CAGR = [antilog (β) – 1] x 100

B. Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index :

C. Coefficient of Variation (CV) :

)1( 2RCV

100X

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Growth and InstabilityGrowth and Instability

1. Data Normalization

2. Estimate CAGR - CDVI

3. Classification on the Matrix

4. Policy Relevance for the Focal Country

Data on APY

Steps in Data AnalysisSteps in Data Analysis

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Actual vis-à-vis Normalized Data – A case of INDIA’s ProductionActual vis-à-vis Normalized Data – A case of INDIA’s Production

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Salient Findings and

Roadmap for Food Security

Instability (Cuddy-Della Valle)

Low (< 10.57) High (> 10.57)

-- --Negative

Canada, ChinaDenmark, EgyptFrance, GermanyIndiaItaly, MexicoPakistan, PolandSpain, SwedenTurkey, United KingdomUSA, World

Afghanistan, AlgeriaAustralia, BrazilBulgaria, HungaryIran, IraqMorocco, NepalRomaniaSouth AfricaSyria

Positive

TE 1963/64 to TE 2013/14

Growth

(CAGR)

Yield

Instability (Cuddy-Della Valle)

Low (< 16.13) High (> 16.13)

Italy --Negative

Canada, France, GermanyIndia, Iran Nepal, PakistanPoland, RomaniaSpain, SwedenTurkeyUSAWorld

Afghanistan, AlgeriaArgentina, AustraliaBrazil, BulgariaChina,Denmark, EgyptHungary, IraqMexico MoroccoSouth AfricaSyriaUnited Kingdom

Positive

TE 1963/64 to TE 2013/14

Growth

(CAGR)

Production

Instability (Cuddy-Della Valle)

Low (< 11.83) High (> 11.83)

ChinaHungaryItalyRomaniaWorld

Afghanistan, AlgeriaArgentina, CanadaMexico, South AfricaSpain, USA

Negative

Bulgaria, France, GermanyIndia, IranMorocco, NepalPakistan, PolandSwedenTurkey

Australia, Brazil Denmark EgyptIraq, Syria United Kingdom

Positive

TE 1963/64 to TE 2013/14

Growth

(CAGR)

Area

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Top 30 wheat producers were considered (China to Nepal)

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

GrowthInstability

Low HighAREA

Negative -- Meghalaya, Sikkim, Tripura

PositiveHaryana, Jammu & KashmirPunjab, Uttar Pradesh

Nagaland

PRODUCTION

Negative Assam, Maharashtra Meghalaya, Odisha, Sikkim, Tripura

PositiveChhattisgarh, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Bengal

Nagaland

YIELDNegative -- Sikkim

PositiveArunachal Pradesh, Gujarat, HaryanaPunjab, Rajasthan, Uttar PradeshUttarakhand

Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand Nagaland, Tripura

Classification of Indian States (Consistent between 1995-96 to 2004-05 and 2005-06 to 2014-15)

Parameter Unit 1980-81 2014-15Quantum Change

% Change

CAGR (%)

Area Million Hectares 22.28 30.97 8.69 39.00 0.86

Production Million Tonnes 36.31 88.94 52.63 144.94 2.56

Yield kg/ha 1630 2872 1242 76.19 1.69

51mt in the next 35 years…

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

SWOT AnalysisSWOT Analysis

• Strong All India Coordinated Wheat Improvement

Project with the support of ICAR which develop

varieties suitable for different agro-climatic zones

• Availability of huge collection of germplasm and

possibility for utilizing its genetic diversity

• International linkages for knowledge and resource

sharing

• Extension personnel within the system to carry

successful technologies from lab to field

Strengths (within system that help to achieve the set target)

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

SWOT AnalysisSWOT Analysis

• Agriculture being a state subject, a miniscule lag

in technology transfer between Central and State

Governments

• Lack of commercialization due to weak linkage

between public and private sector

• Lack of sufficient infrastructure facilities in remote

areas

Weaknesses (within system that affect in achieving the set target)

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

SWOT AnalysisSWOT Analysis

• Bridging yield gaps giving a huge scope for

increasing the production

• Targeting low productivity states having

considerable area under wheat

• Prevalence of huge domestic and international

demand for value addition

• Easy access to recent biotechnological and bio-

informatics tools to augment the crop productivity

• Foreign exchange through exports

Opportunities (outside the system that help to achieve the set target)

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

SWOT AnalysisSWOT Analysis

• Chance of area decline owing to urbanization• Population pressure vis-à-vis demand • Climate change • Over use of inputs & resource services• Deteriorating soil health and ground water• Declining total factor productivity • Fragmentation of land and declining farm size • Reduced net returns • Competing crops – Area vis-à-vis price• IPR issues• Price volatility• Weather anomalies

Threats (outside the system that hinders in achieving the set target)

Production decline due to weather anomalies

Pri

ce

Quantity

Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Cause vis-à-vis Effect on Price and Poverty

Chaos Theory – Would it be a Butterfly Effect??Chaos Theory – Would it be a Butterfly Effect??

2013-14: 59.31 mt

2014-15: 52.86 mt

Ending Stocks (2014-15) : 11.90mtEnding Stocks (2014-15) : 11.90mt

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Options developed from 2014-15 fourth estimates of MoA, India

Area (mha)

Yield (kg/ha)

A.Same area (30.97 million hectares) - 4521

Same yield (2872 kg/ha) 48.58 -

B.

5 % increase in area and 50 % increase in yield 32.52 4308

10 % increase in area and 43 % increase in yield 34.07 4107

15 % increase in area and 37 % increase in yield 35.62 3935

C.

5 % decrease in area and 66 % increase in yield 29.42 4768

10 % decrease in area and 75 % increase in yield 27.87 5026

15 % decrease in area and 85 % increase in yield 26.32 5313

D.

66 % increase in area and 5 % decrease in yield 51.41 2728

75 % increase in area and 10 % decrease in yield 54.20 2585

85 % increase in area and 15 % decrease in yield 57.29 2441

Scenarios for 140 mt Production Target in 2050

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

ZoneArea in

mha

Average yield realized at farmers

field in kg/ha

Yield target in kg/ha

Production target in mt

NWPZ 12.66 3880 5820 (50%↑) 73.68 (52.28%)

NEPZ 9.12 2517 3398 (35%↑) 30.99 (21.99%)

CZ 7.18 2978 4318 (45%↑) 31.00 (22%)

NHZ 0.90 2135 2776 (30%↑) 2.50 (1.77%)

PZ 1.10 2071 2485 (20%↑) 2.73 (1.94%)

SHZ 0.01 1998 2198 (10%↑) 0.02 (0.02%)

Zone wise target for attaining 140 million tonnes in 2050

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Zone wise share for attaining 140 million tonnes

22 %22 %

52 %140 mt

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Production

Technology Extension Policy Institution

Area Yield

1. Superior Varieties2. Hybrids3. Transgenics

1. Demonstrations2. Village Adoption3. Field Days4. Exhibition

1. Price Policy2. Input policy (seed, credit)

1. Markets2. Distribution System3. Social Institutions

Framework for Technology-Extension-Policy-Institution Synergy

ResearchPrice

Take Home Message…

Positive Economics: What done?Positive Economics: What done? Normative Economics: What ought to be done?Normative Economics: What ought to be done?

1. A spectrum of varieties released on yield

traits & resistance

2. Continuous monitoring & surveillance

3. Demonstrations in farmer’s field

4. Bridging yield gaps

5. Support price to farmers

1. Variety release on economic evaluation

2. Disaster forewarning system

3. Cluster demonstrations & impact

4. Bridging knowledge & information gap

5. Deficient price payment system

6. Promotion of risk management strategies like

weather insurance

7. Seed & variety replacement

8. One seed village per block

9. Single & reliable source of information

10.Promotion of storage structures

11.Technology foresight centre

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

1. Prologue2. Data and Methodology3. Salient Findings and Roadmap for Food Security4. Conclusions and Policy Implications

“Prevention is always better than cure”“Prevention is always better than cure”

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), New Delhi

Director, ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research

Dr.AK Joshi, CIMMYT

Prof.Richard Trethowan, The University of Sydney

Dr.Ravish Chatrath & Dr.Indu Sharma, ICAR-IIWBR

Colleagues & Staffs, ICAR-IIWBR

Organizers, IWC 2015

Believe the present young generation Believe the present young generation will continue their SMILE while they do will continue their SMILE while they do

farming at 2050farming at 2050