South Africa in the 21st Century

Shahid Solomon

UMZANSI 21

It is not yet here ?

It is has gone past ?

It is moving now ?

TRANSITION

Past Present Future

IMPLIES

• Systems that change in interconnected ways

• An inevitable destination

• Unpredictable Journey: messy, fuzzy & zig-zag

e.g. growing up!

Transition is slow + simple – Past is clear – Present is obvious – Future can be predicted

Transition is fast + complex – Past needs analysis – Present is slippery – Future is uncertain

A 21ST CENTURY WORLD FAST + COMPLEX TRANSITION FROM ADOLESCENCE TO ADULTHOOD

REACHING PEAK POPULATION

7 9 10

• Ocean acidification • Nitrogen cycle (N) cycle • Freshwater use • Land system change & soil loss • Biological diversity loss • Chemical pollution • CO2 : Climate change

ON THE PLANET BOUNDARY

HOW DOES OUR THINKING NEED TO CHANGE?

ACCEPT: WE ARE ALL PART OF A RADICAL TRANSITION TO A MATURE & SUSTAINABLE WORLD

RAPID, ACCELERATING AND DEEP

What powers our world energy

What enables our world economy + technology

What connects our world networks + internet

Who we are the networked self

What we think is important global values

Who runs the world global politics

WE NEED TO RE- NOVATE: MAKE SYSTEMATIC TIME PATH CHOICES

• Think System

• Think path

• Think inter-generational

• Embrace Uncertainty

“Humans create their own futures ….and they do so by making decisions and taking action.

Scenarios…..enable…..better decisions as a result of a better understanding of the choices they may face and the potential consequences of those choices.

….allow decision makers ….to design custom systems …”

The Role of System Theory in Scenario Planning

Thomas Chermack Journal of Futures Studies, May 2004, 8(4): 15 - 30

GLOBAL SCENARIOS TO 2050

FOUR DRIVING FORCES

• A Dark Horse

• Five Bright Horses

• Two ZEBRAS

• Seven Human Generations

THE DARK HORSE

CONTESTED CONCEPT OF STATE

VESTED INTERESTS IN NARROW FUTURES?

NATION- STATIST? ISLAMIST ? SOCIALIST? ANARCHIST ?

A GLOBAL SOLUTION FOR GLOBAL ISSUES

FIVE BRIGHT HORSES

LIFE GETTING BETTER FOR MORE PEOPLE

FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DO SO

Population Growth Rates Declining Better Quality of Life • Famine has become rare • People are Living 25% longer than 40

years ago • Greater choice & opportunity than ever

before • More holidays, media choice,

information • Better health: lifestyle diseases now

key issue

Higher Standards of Living

• According to the World Bank, extreme poverty ($1.25/day) has fallen from 1.94 billion people (52% of the world) in 1981 to 1.29 billion (about 20%) in 2010

• GDP per person has doubled since 1970

• Cost of Communication has been slashed

• Price of metals reducing

• Global Middle Class (e.g Italy, Spain)will grow from 7% to 17% by 2025

RELENTLESS TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION BREAKTHROUGH

• The Green Rush • fast rail • super efficient solar • 100% Recycling

• On Line World • Network-linked chips run everything • Talking video smartphones for all • Personal Computing Device

• Biotechnology: Biology + Nanoscience + Information Science • algal ponds generate aircraft fuel • Redesign of materials • Redesign of the human being:

• Genetic Engineering • Transhumanism

ONE WORLD ONE SOCIAL NETWORK

Billions can now exercise instant cross sectional “like”, choice and influence as – Citizens – Shareholders – Consumers – Workers – Entrepreneurs – Groups – Communities

FRESH THINKING

Seeds of New Global Consciousness Emergence of Asian & African Values

TWO ZEBRAS

GLOBAL FINANCE Global Casino of Financialisation?

OR

Recapitalise Re-novation of Global Infrastructure ?

GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS

More Rounds & Rounds of talking

OR

Executive Global Government ?

BRINGING IT HOME: SEVEN GENERATIONS

BUILDERS + BABY BOOMERS + GEN X WILL HAVE TO LEAD THE TRANSITION

Builders

• Born: Before 1945

• Average Current Age: 75

• Characteristics: Conservative

• Running the World: Now

Baby Boomers: Yuppies & Hippies

• Born: 1945 - 1965

• Average Current Age: 60

• Characteristics: Idealistic & Competitive

• Running the World: Now - 2030

Gen X

• Born: 1960 - 1980

• Average Current Age: 45

• Characteristics: Individualists

• Running the World: Now - 2050

GEN X + Y + Z WILL HAVE TO MANAGE THE TRANSITION

Gen Y

• Born: 1995 - 2010

• Average Current Age: 25

• Characteristics: Optimists,

Tech Comfortable

• Running the World: 2030 -

2070

Gen Z “Born Free”

• Born: 1995 - 2010

• Average Current Age: 10

• Characteristics: Tech Savvy,

Tolerant, Globally Connected

• Socially Responsible

• Running the World: 2050 - 2090

GENERATION ALPHA AND BETA WILL LIVE THE CHANGE

Gen Alpha

• Born: 2010 – 2025

• Average Current Age:

• Characteristics: First Globals, Highly Tech Savvy & Enabled

• Running the World: 2070 - 2120

Gen Beta

• Born: 2025 – 2045

• Average Current Age: Unborn

• Characteristics: Post Tech , True Globals, Genetically Engineered “New Humans”

• Running the World: 2090 - 2140

FOUR GLOBAL PATH SCENARIOS TO 2050

46

Plutocracy

Bright Horses Charge

Dark Horse

Stumbles Anarchy

Real Global

Governance

Open

Internet

Gated

Internet

Ad Hoc

Multilateralism

AFRICA IN TRANSITION

FASTEST GROWING & DEVELOPING CONTINENT IN

21ST CENTURY

REAL GDP PER CAPITA WITH GROW AT 4,4% PER ANNUM

2012 – 2050 + MASSIVE URBANISATION

FOUR AFRICAN PATH SCENARIOS TO 2050

52

Rich Dad Poor Dad

Green Continent of

the 21st Century

Asian Resource

Pool

Rich Country

Poor Country

One

Emergent

Africa

Human &

EcologicaI

Investment

Path

Extractive

Investment

Path

Five Colonial Africas

SOUTH AFRICA : A MODEL OF TRANSITION LOSES ITS GLAMOUR

A PAST NOT EASY TO LEAVE BEHIND

• Apartheid was an expensive social engineering project

• The Liberation Struggle was also expensive • Three generations damaged

• Baby Boomers fought the Cold War • Generation X completed the struggle • Generation Y picked up the pieces

Post 1994 structural adjustment was too much of a shock

– SA de-industrialised

– China took the Gap

• New Democracy did a brave job of building lots of houses, clinics and schools

– In dysfunctional settlements

– With immature institutions

• Big Business Divested, economic patriotism was slow in coming

• 40% unemployment compared with only 7% in African Countries

• Resource intensive service economy not generating jobs

SA IS NOT A MODEL FOR AFRICA

NINE PROBLEMS IDENTIFIED IN THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR 2030

• Too few people work • Quality of school education for black

people is poor • Infrastructure is poorly located,

inadequate and under maintained • Spatial divides • Resource intensive unsustainable

economy • The public health system capacity and

quality • Public services uneven + poor quality • Corruption high • Divided society

WHATS HOLDING SOUTH AFRICA TOGETHER & PULLING IT APART?

CORPORATE

CENTRE

MONOPOLY FRACTURE

URBAN FRACTURE

PRODUCTION FRACTURE SOCIAL

FRACTURE

WORKFORCE FRACTURE

STRONG CENTRAL SYSTEM WITH FIVE FRACTURING SYSTEMS

Solid Financial System

Macro Economic Stability

White Middle Class

Black Middle Class

Stable government

Competitive Corporate s

CORPORATE CENTRE

Motor Car based Cities

Apartheid Cities

Low Productivity

Huge Carbon Footprint

URBAN FRACTURE

ADDITION TO NINE PROBLEMS IDENTIFIED BY THE

NDP)

GAUTENG MEGALOPOLIS

Townships

Poverty

Mimetic Apartheid

Poor Education &

Health

Social Fragmentati

on

SOCIAL FRACTURE

High Unemployment

Poor Labour Relations

Grant Relieved Poverty

Low Skills

Growth Ceiling

WORKFORCE FRACTURE

Cheap Coal Electricity

Cheap Labour

Minerals Export

Resource curse

Huge Carbon Footprint

INDUSTRIAL FRACTURE

Big Government

Big Business

Big Trade Unions

Stifled Small Business

MONOPOLY FRACTURE

SOUTH AFRICA 2050

A RICH LITTLE COUNTRY IN AFRICA

SMALL & STABLE

• Population Stable & Ageing

• Gets dwarfed in the African context to 2050

Country Population (millions)*

2012 2030 2050 GAIN 2012 -2050

SOUTH AFRICA

50 54 56 +6

TANZANIA 47 81 138 +91

NIGERIA 166 257 389 +223 * UN Projections 2012

PROSPEROUS • SA High Economic Competitiveness • Most sophisticated economy in Africa

DYNAMIC

• Economic Nucleus of 250m in Southern Africa

EMERGING MARKET LEADER : Faster GDP growth than Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey

RE-NOVATING SOUTH AFRICA ?

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030

Vision Statement: 12- pages of mythical national poetry

– 12 Themes

– 73 Objectives

– 119 Actions

TARGETS

• Eliminate Income Poverty: zero households with income below R 419 (2009)

• Reduce Inequality: GINI from 0.69 to 0.6

• Increase employment from 13 - 24 million

• Raise per capita income from R 50 000 -R 120 000

• Increase the share of national income of bottom 40% of people from 6% to 10%

Its approved so it shall happen…

QUESTIONS

• What Global & African scenarios ?

• Why did previous strategies & plans fail?

• What uncertainties?

• What mythology are we replacing?

• What systems?

• What choices + consequences?

• What step path to 2020 > 2030 > 2050?

FOUR SOUTH AFRICAN PATH SCENARIOS TO 2050

80

African Island

African Finance &

Knowledge Hub

African Crime Capital

African Casino

Fractures

Healed

Open To

Africa

Closed To

Africa

Fractures

Widen

CENTRE HOLDS

CENTRE FOLDS

OPTIONS FOR MASSIVE DISRUPTIVE POSTIVE SYSTEMS CHANGE ?

BUST THE CULTURAL DNA CODES THAT HOLD BACK ?

DISCARD THE USED FUTURE South Africa? Azania?

ACKNOWLEDGE THE REALITY OF THE DISOWNED FUTURE Capitalism, Socialism, Apartheid, Inequality, Exile, Brutality, Struggle, Flight

LIVE A RATIONAL OPTIMISTIC CULTURE OF

UMZANSI TRANSITION AND RENOVATION ?

Joburg Central Park

SMASH THE APARTHEID TEMPLATE WITH BOLD URBAN RE-NOVATION ?

INDUSTRIALISE FOR A GREEN CONTINENT ?

FAST TRACK SOUTHERN AFRICA CONNECTIVITY + INTEGRATION ?

TURN IKASI INSIDE OUT ?

UNLEASH BOTTOM UP ENTREPRENEURSHIP ?

OUT OF BOX FAST TRACKS FOR HEALTH AND EDUCATION ?

WORK BACK & WORK FORWARD

LOOK OUTSIDE IN & INSIDE OUT

HAVE THE CONVERSATION

PULL IT TOGETHER INTO CLEAR STORY OF CHOICES & FUTURES

DESIGN & BUILD A FORESIGHT SYSTEM AROUND THE NDP

– Linking with the Strategy + Budget Cycle

– Connecting SA Futures to Africa & World Futures

– Think long past 1900 and future 2050

– Design a transition path

MANAGE A GLOBAL LOBBYING STRATEGY AROUND PREFERRED AFRICAN & GLOBAL SCENARIOS

SYNCHRONOUS TRANSITION

LINK NATIONAL CONVERSATION TO:

• Regional Re-Novation

• Institutional Re-Novation

• Enterprise Re-Novation

• Human Re-Novation

CONCLUSION

By mapping the past, present and future By anticipating future issues and their consequences By being sensitive to the grand patterns of change By deepening our analysis to include worldviews and myths and metaphors By creating alternative futures By choosing a preferred future and back casting ways to realize the preferred future

We can create the world we wish to live in. Sohail Inayatullah (2008)

THE RE-NOVATOR

• Urban Planner

• Futurist

• Re-novator

Umzansi 21: Renovating South Africa in the 21st Century (publication under development)

Blog:

http://shahidsolomon.wordpress.com

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www.novation2050.co.za

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