un climate change working grp ii report

8/12/2019 UN Climate Change Working Grp II Report

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CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY


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SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSES

SocioeconomicPathways

Adaptation andMitigationActions

Governance

CLIMATE

NaturalVariability

AnthropogenicClimate Change

RISKHazards

Exposure

Vulnerability

IMPACTS

EMISSIONSand Land-use Change


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A CHANGING WORLD

WIDESPREAD

OBSERVED IMPACTS


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A CHANGING WORLD

WIDESPREADOBSERVED IMPACTS


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D

ISTRIBUTIONCHANGE

(

Km

perDecade)

-20

0

20

400

Standard Error

Mean

Standard Error

(359)

100


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Wheat Soy Rice Maize

CROP TYPE

-6

-4

-2

0

2

90thPercentile

75thPercentile

Median

25thPercentile

10thPercentileY

IELDIMPACT

(

%C

hangeperDecade)


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AROUND THE WORLD

VULNERABILITYAND EXPOSURE


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AROUND THE WORLD

VULNERABILITYAND EXPOSURE


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ALREADY OCCURING

ADAPTATION IS


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ALREADY OCCURING

ADAPTATION IS


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CLIMATE CHANGE

REDUCING ANDMANAGING RISKS


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THE LIKELIHOOD OF

INCREASING MAGNITUDESOF WARMING INCREASE

SEVERE ANDPERVASIVE IMPACTS


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SCOPING

Identify Risks,Vulnerabilities,and Objectives

Establish Decision-Making Criteria

ANALYSIS

IdentifyOptions

AssessRisks

EvaluateTradeoffs

IMPLEMENTATION

Reviewand Learn

ImplementDecisions

Monitor


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WITH CONTINUEDHIGH EMISSIONS

INCREASE

RISKS OFCLIMATE CHANGE


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0

AVERAGE CLIMATEVELOCITY 2050-2090

Plant-feedingInsects

Primates

CarnivorousMammals

Split-hoofedMammals

Trees

HerbaceousPlants

Rodents

FreshwaterMollusks

10080604020

RCP2.6Flat AreasandGlobalAverage

RCP8.5Global Average

RCP4.5Flat Areas

RCP6.0Flat Areas

RCP8.5Flat Areas

Upper Bound

Median

Lower Bound

MAXIMUM SPEED AT WHICH SPECIES CAN MOVE(km per decade)


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CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B)

CHANGE IN pH (2081-2100 COMPARED TO 1986-2005, RCP 8.5)

-0.60 -0.55 -0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.35 -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05

100%

CRUSTACEANS

SPECIES(%)

MOLLUSK

0

20

40

60

80

10040 16 15 31 29

PositiveEffect

No Effect

NegativeEffect

Mollusk andCrustacean FisheriesPresent-day annual catchrate !0.005 tonnes km2

Cold-Water Corals

Warm-Water Corals

0

20

40

60

80

10037 4 9 18 23

COLD-WATER CORALS

0

20

40

60

80

1007 2 7 5 3

WARM-WATER CORALS

0

20

40

60

80

10026 9 15 23 20


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CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B)

100%


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2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089

20

40

60

80

100

PERCENTAGEOF

YIELDPROJECTIONS

02090-2109

0 -5%

-5 -10%

-10 -25%

-25 -50%

-50 -100%

50 100%

25 50%

10 25%

5 10%

0 5%

Range of Yield Change

Increasein Yield

Decreasein Yield


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r

Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation

Potential forAdditional

Adaptation toReduce Risk

Risk Level withHigh Adaptation

Risk-Level

VeryLow Med

VeryHigh

4C

2C

Present

Long Term(2080-2100

Near Term (2030-2040

Risks for Low-LyingCoastal Areas

Loss of Livelihoods,Settlements,Infrastructure,Ecosystem Services,

and EconomicStability

SMALL ISLANDS

Compounded Stresson Water Resources

Reduced Crop Productivityand Livelihood and Food Security

Vector- and Water-Borne Diseases

AFRICA

ASIAIncreased FloodDamage toInfrastructure ,Livelihoods,and Settlements

Heat-RelatedHuman Mortality

Increased Drought-Related Water andFood Shortage

Increased Losses andImpacts from ExtremeHeat Events

Increased Flood Losses and Impacts EUROPE

Increased Water Restrictions

Increased Flood Damageto Infrastructure andSettlements

Increased Risksto CoastalInfrastructureand Low-LyingEcosystems

AUSTRALASIASignificant Change inComposition and Structureof Coral Reef Systems

Increased Risksfrom Wildfires

Heat-RelatedHuman Mortality

Damages from Riverand Coastal Urban Floods

NORTH AMERICA

Reduced WaterAvailability andIncreased Flooding andLandslides

Reduced FoodProduction and Quality

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA

Vector-Borne Diseases

Reduced FisheriesCatch Potentialat Low Latitudes

Increased Mass CoralBleaching and Mortality

Coastal Inundationand Habitat Loss

THE OCEAN

Unprecedented Challenges,Especially from Rate of Change

Risks forEcosystems

POLAR REGIONS Risks for Healthand Well-Being


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EFFECTIVE CLIMATECHANGE ADAPTATION

A MORE VIBRANT WORLD

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