understanding disruptions from emerging demographic trends presentation to the michigan community...
TRANSCRIPT
Understanding Disruptions from Emerging Demographic Trends
Presentation to the Michigan
Community College Association
July 26, 2012
Kenneth Darga, State Demographer
Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget
[email protected] www.michigan.gov/census
Major Topic Areas:
• Total Population• Migration Patterns• Age Distribution• Births
• Economic Disruptions
Major Topic Areas:
• Total Population• Migration Patterns• Age Distribution• Births
Topic 1: Economic Disruptions
1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011
.032011
.082012.012012.062012.11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)
(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)
UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force
End of PeriodJanuary 2003
January 2007
January 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011
.032011
.082012.012012.062012.11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)
(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)
UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force
End of PeriodJanuary 2003
January 2007
January 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011
.032011
.082012.012012.062012.11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)
(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)
UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force
End of PeriodJanuary 2003
January 2007
January 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011
.032011
.082012.012012.062012.11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)
(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)
UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force
End of PeriodJanuary 2003
January 2007
January 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011
.032011
.082012.012012.062012.11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)
(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)
UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force
End of PeriodJanuary 2003
January 2007
January 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011
.032011
.082012.012012.062012.11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)
(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)
UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force
End of PeriodJanuary 2003
January 2007
January 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011
.032011
.082012.012012.062012.11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)
(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)
UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force
End of PeriodJanuary 2003
January 2007
January 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011
.032011
.082012.012012.062012.11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)
(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)
UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force
End of PeriodJanuary 2003
January 2007
January 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
2000.122001.042001.082001.122002.042002.082002.122003.042003.082003.122004.042004.082004.122005.042005.082005.122006.042006.082006.122007.042007.082007.122008.042008.082008.122009.042009.082009.122010.042010.082010.122011.042011.082011.122012.042012.082012.12
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
Non-Farm Employment per 1,000 Population:Michigan and the United States, 2000-2012
(12-month moving average of monthly data through June, 2012)
United States
Michigan
End of Period
Job
s p
er 1
000
Res
iden
ts
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
January, 2003
January, 2007
January, 2011
2000.122001.042001.082001.122002.042002.082002.122003.042003.082003.122004.042004.082004.122005.042005.082005.122006.042006.082006.122007.042007.082007.122008.042008.082008.122009.042009.082009.122010.042010.082010.122011.042011.082011.122012.042012.082012.12
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
Non-Farm Employment per 1,000 Population:Michigan and the United States, 2000-2012
(12-month moving average of monthly data through June, 2012)
United States
Michigan
End of Period
Job
s p
er 1
000
Res
iden
ts
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
January, 2003
January, 2007
January, 2011
2000.122001.042001.082001.122002.042002.082002.122003.042003.082003.122004.042004.082004.122005.042005.082005.122006.042006.082006.122007.042007.082007.122008.042008.082008.122009.042009.082009.122010.042010.082010.122011.042011.082011.122012.042012.082012.12
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
Non-Farm Employment per 1,000 Population:Michigan and the United States, 2000-2012
(12-month moving average of monthly data through June, 2012)
United States
Michigan
End of Period
Job
s p
er 1
000
Res
iden
ts
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
January, 2003
January, 2007
January, 2011
2000.122001.042001.082001.122002.042002.082002.122003.042003.082003.122004.042004.082004.122005.042005.082005.122006.042006.082006.122007.042007.082007.122008.042008.082008.122009.042009.082009.122010.042010.082010.122011.042011.082011.122012.042012.082012.12
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
Non-Farm Employment per 1,000 Population:Michigan and the United States, 2000-2012
(12-month moving average of monthly data through June, 2012)
United States
Michigan
End of Period
Job
s p
er 1
000
Res
iden
ts
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
January, 2003
January, 2007
January, 2011
For more information on Michigan’s One-State Recession:
• Go to www.michigan.gov/census• Look for the link:
Rethinking Michigan’s One-State Recession (paper and video)
Topic 2: Total Population
Demographic Topic #1:Total Population
“There has been an unprecedented decline in Michigan’s population over the past few years.”
Demographic Topic #1:Total Population
“There has been an unprecedented decline in Michigan’s population over the past few years.”
19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010
Year
Num
ber
of P
eopl
e
19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010
Year
Num
ber
of P
eopl
e
19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010
Year
Num
ber
of P
eopl
e
19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010
Year
Num
ber
of P
eopl
e
19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010
Year
Num
ber
of P
eopl
e
19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010
Year
Num
ber
of P
eopl
e
Each recession has involved:• More people leaving• Fewer people arriving from other states and countries• Lower birth rates
An additional factor:• People leaving for military service
Each recession has involved:• More people leaving• Fewer people arriving from other states and countries• Lower birth rates
An additional factor:• People leaving for military service
Demographic Topic #1:Total Population
“Michigan’s population stagnated during the first half of the last decade, and then plummeted in the second half.”
Demographic Topic #1:Total Population
“Michigan’s population stagnated during the first half of the last decade, and then plummeted in the second half.”
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
2
4
6
8
10
12
Estimated Population of Michigan, 2000-2010N
umbe
r of
Res
iden
ts (
mil
lion
s)
Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Provisional Intercensal Population Estimates
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20109.8
9.9
10
10.1
Estimated Population of Michigan, 2000-2010N
umbe
r of
Res
iden
ts (
mil
lion
s)
Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Provisional Intercensal Population Estimates
Demographic Topic #1:Total Population
“Michigan’s share of the nation’s population has decreased every year since 1970, leading to the loss of at least one congressional seat in each of the past four decades.”
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:
1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.
(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of
migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.
Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:
1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.
(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of
migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.
Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:
1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.
(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of
migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.
Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:
1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.
(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of
migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.
Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:
1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.
(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of
migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
Potential Future Disruptions:
1. Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water?
2. Global warming?3. Global Cooling?4. Global uncertainty?
Potential Future Disruptions:
1. Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water?
2. Global warming?3. Global Cooling?4. Global uncertainty?
Potential Future Disruptions:
1. Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water?
2. Global warming?3. Global Cooling?4. Global uncertainty?
Potential Future Disruptions:
1. Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water?
2. Global warming?3. Global Cooling?4. Global uncertainty?
Topic 3: Migration
Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Age 55+
International Immigration
Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
High net migration to other states
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Age 55+
International Immigration
v
Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
High net migration to other states
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Not much net migration to other states
Age 55+
International Immigration
v
Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
High net migration to other states
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Not much net migration to other states
Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states
International Immigration
v
Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
High net migration to other states
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Not much net migration to other states
Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states
International Immigration Moderate immigration of young adults and their childrenv
Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Age 55+
International Immigration
v
Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
High net migration to other states
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Age 55+
International Immigration
v
Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
High net migration to other states
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Considerable net migration to other states
Age 55+
International Immigration
v
Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
High net migration to other states
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Considerable net migration to other states
Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states in most years
International Immigration
v
Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
High net migration to other states
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Considerable net migration to other states
Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states in most years
International Immigration Less immigration of young adults and their childrenv
Since the end of the One-State Recession:• Fewer people leaving (for most age groups)• More people moving in (for most age groups)• Still losing population through migration, but not as much as before
Exception: ages 60 through 74
Since the end of the One-State Recession:• Fewer people leaving (for most age groups)• More people moving in (for most age groups)• Still losing population through migration, but not as much as before
Exception: ages 60 through 74
1-4
5-17
18-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75+
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Rates of Domestic Out-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010
Age
Mig
rati
on R
ate
1-4
5-17
18-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75+
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Rates of Domestic Out-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010
Age
Mig
rati
on R
ate
1-4
5-17
18-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75+
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Rates of Domestic Out-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010
Out from MichiganNational Inter-State Migra-tion
Age
Mig
rati
on R
ate
1-4
5-17
18-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75+
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Rates of Domestic In-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010
Into MichiganNational Inter-State Migra-tion
Age
Mig
rati
on R
ate
Topic 4: Age Distribution
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 1900
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 1960
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 1960
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 1960
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 2010
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 2010
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 2010
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 2010
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 2010
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 2010
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
United States: 2050
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)
to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050
Year
Rat
io (
Age
20-
64 :
65+
)
2010
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)
to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050
Year
Rat
io (
Age
20-
64 :
65+
)
2010
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)
to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050
Year
Rat
io (
Age
20-
64 :
65+
)
2010
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)
to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050
Year
Rat
io (
Age
20-
64 :
65+
)
2010
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)
to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050
Year
Rat
io (
Age
20-
64 :
65+
)
2030
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)
to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050
Year
Rat
io (
Age
20-
64 :
65+
)
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
United States: 2050
Japan
Italy
China
United States
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.7
Number of People Age 20-64 per Person Age 65+ in 2050
Perspectives on the Retirement Challenge:There should be enough goods and services to go
around (provided that productivity continues to increase at a normal rate and the economy continues to function in a normal manner).
The ratio of workers to retirees will be LOWER when the post-Boomer generation retires (unless fertility and immigration increase beyond replacement level)
Perspectives on the Retirement Challenge:There should be enough goods and services to go
around (provided that productivity continues to increase at a normal rate and the economy continues to function in a normal manner).
The ratio of workers to retirees will be LOWER when the post-Boomer generation retires (unless fertility and immigration increase beyond replacement level)
Before 2012:• The people reaching full retirement age were from the small generations born during the Great Depression and World War II.• Relatively few opportunities for advancement or new hiring were being opened up through retirement.
After 2012:• The number of people reaching full retirement age will gradually build up toward a peak around 2024.
Before 2012:• The people reaching full retirement age were from the small generations born during the Great Depression and World War II.• Relatively few opportunities for advancement or new hiring were being opened up through retirement.
After 2012:• The number of people reaching full retirement age will gradually build up toward a peak around 2024.
Percent of Labor Force Over Age 50 for Selected Occupations: Michigan, 2010
• 63% -- Bus Drivers• 55% -- Electronic Equipment Installers• 50% -- Computer Operators• 50% -- Millwrights• 44% -- Industrial Machinery Mechanics• 41% -- Registered Nurses• 40% -- Tool and Die Makers
Note: These statistics are based on a sample and they are subject to wide statistical confidence intervals.
Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.
• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.
• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.
• Skilled production workers (and factories) will then be critically important.
Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.
• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.
• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.
• Skilled production workers (and factories) will then be critically important.
Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.
• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.
• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.
• Skilled production workers (and factories) will then be critically important.
Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.
• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.
• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.
• That will be a very dangerous situation if America lacks killed production workers (and factories).
Topic 5: Birth Rates
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 2010
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010
Year
Num
ber
of B
irth
s
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010
Year
Num
ber
of B
irth
s
Age 18 in 2008
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010
Year
Num
ber
of B
irth
s
Age 18 in 2008
Age 18 in 2013(down 12.4%
from peak)
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010
Year
Num
ber
of B
irth
s
Age 18 in 2020(down 15.4%
from peak)
Age 18 in 2008
Age 18 in 2013(down 12.4%
from peak)
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010
Year
Num
ber
of B
irth
s
Age 18 in 2020(down 15.4%
from peak)
Age 18 in 2008
Age 18 in 2013(down 12.4%
from peak)
Age 18 in 2024(down 16.7%
from peak)
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010
Year
Num
ber
of B
irth
s
Age 18 in 2020(down 15.4%
from peak)
Age 18 in 2008
Age 18 in 2013(down 12.4%
from peak)
Age 18 in 2024(down 16.7%
from peak)
Age 18 in 2028(down 25.1%
from peak)
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010
Year
Num
ber
of B
irth
s
Age 18 in 2020(down 15.4%
from peak)
Age 18 in 2008
Age 18 in 2013(down 12.4%
from peak)
Age 18 in 2024(down 16.7%
from peak)
Age 18 in 2028(down 25.1%
from peak)
2012
Prospects for a second echo of the Baby Boom:
• Births delayed during past recessions should take place.• The relatively large number of people
born in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s will enter their peak childbearing years.• This is likely to be a weak echo of the
Baby Boom.
Prospects for a second echo of the Baby Boom:
• Births delayed during past recessions should take place.• The relatively large number of people
born in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s will enter their peak childbearing years.• This is likely to be a weak echo of the
Baby Boom.
Prospects for a second echo of the Baby Boom:
• Births delayed during past recessions should take place.• The relatively large number of people
born in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s will enter their peak childbearing years.• This is likely to be a weak echo of the
Baby Boom.
Topic 1: Economic Disruptions
RecessionsThe One-State RecessionUnemployment trendsEmployment trends
1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011
.032011
.082012.012012.062012.11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)
(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)
UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force
End of PeriodJanuary 2003
January 2007
January 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
2000.122001.042001.082001.122002.042002.082002.122003.042003.082003.122004.042004.082004.122005.042005.082005.122006.042006.082006.122007.042007.082007.122008.042008.082008.122009.042009.082009.122010.042010.082010.122011.042011.082011.122012.042012.082012.12
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
Non-Farm Employment per 1,000 Population:Michigan and the United States, 2000-2012
(12-month moving average of monthly data through June, 2012)
United States
Michigan
End of Period
Job
s p
er 1
000
Res
iden
ts
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
January, 2003
January, 2007
January, 2011
Topic 2: Total Population
Historical fluctuations in growth How bad was the past decade? Long-term trend of declining
population share Disruptive factors (past and
future)
19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010
Year
Num
ber
of P
eopl
e
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
2
4
6
8
10
12
Estimated Population of Michigan, 2000-2010N
umbe
r of
Res
iden
ts (
mil
lion
s)
Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Provisional Intercensal Population Estimates
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20109.8
9.9
10
10.1
Estimated Population of Michigan, 2000-2010N
umbe
r of
Res
iden
ts (
mil
lion
s)
Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Provisional Intercensal Population Estimates
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010
Year
Per
cent
of
U.S
. Pop
ulat
ion
Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010
Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:
1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.
(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of
migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.
Topic 3: Migration
Normal pattern vs. recent pattern for each age group
High migration rates for young people are a national pattern
Michigan’s problem is low in-migration rather than high out-migration
Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
High net migration to other states
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Not much net migration to other states
Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states
International Immigration Moderate immigration of young adults and their childrenv
Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)
Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration
Age 18-24(college and military age)
High net migration to other states
Age 25-54(prime labor force)
Considerable net migration to other states
Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states in most years
International Immigration Less immigration of young adults and their childrenv
1-4
5-17
18-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75+
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Rates of Domestic Out-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010
Out from MichiganNational Inter-State Migra-tion
Age
Mig
rati
on R
ate
1-4
5-17
18-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75+
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Rates of Domestic In-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010
Into MichiganNational Inter-State Migra-tion
Age
Mig
rati
on R
ate
Topic 4: Age Distribution (pt.1)
Historical population pyramids The challenge of financing retirement as
the ratio of workers to retirees decreasesIt is not the size of the older generation that matters, but how
many children, grandchildren, and immigrants have come afterwards.
Other countries with lower birthrates and fewer immigrants will have a much more serious retirement challenge than the U.S.
The ratio of workers to retirees is not projected to improve after the Baby Boom generation passes away.
We should still have enough food, goods, and services to go around.
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 1900
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 1960
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
Michigan: 2010
0-14
75+
60-75
45-59
30-44
15-29
United States: 2050
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)
to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050
Year
Rat
io (
Age
20-
64 :
65+
)
Japan
Italy
China
United States
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.7
Number of People Age 20-64 per Person Age 65+ in 2050
Topic 4: Age Distribution (pt.2)
Impact of retirements on future employment opportunities
National defense implications of training workers for skilled production occupations
Percent of Labor Force Over Age 50 for Selected Occupations: Michigan, 2010
• 63% -- Bus Drivers• 55% -- Electronic Equipment Installers• 50% -- Computer Operators• 50% -- Millwrights• 44% -- Industrial Machinery Mechanics• 41% -- Registered Nurses• 40% -- Tool and Die Makers
Note: These statistics are based on a sample and they are subject to wide statistical confidence intervals.
Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.
• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.
• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.
• That will be a very dangerous situation if America lacks killed production workers (and factories).
Topic 5: Birth Rates
Implications of declining birth rates for future enrollment
Prospects for a weak second echo of the Baby Boom
Percent of Labor Force Over Age 50 for Selected Occupations: Michigan, 2010
• 63% -- Bus Drivers• 55% -- Electronic Equipment Installers• 50% -- Computer Operators• 50% -- Millwrights• 44% -- Industrial Machinery Mechanics• 41% -- Registered Nurses• 40% -- Tool and Die Makers
Note: These statistics are based on a sample and they are subject to wide statistical confidence intervals.
Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.
• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.
• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.
• That will be a very dangerous situation if America lacks killed production workers (and factories).
Access to Data
www.michigan.gov/census
www.census.gov
To sign up for listserv: Send email to [email protected]
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Percentage of Population with Associates Degree by Age: Michigan and the U.S., 2010
MichiganUnited States
Age Group
Per
cent
wit
h D
egre
e
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Percentage of Population with Associates Degree by Age: Michigan and the U.S., 2010
MichiganUnited States
Age Group
Per
cent
wit
h D
egre
e
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Percentage of Population with Bachelor's Degree or Higher by Age: Michigan and the U.S., 2010
MichiganUnited States
Age Group
Per
cent
wit
h D
egre
e
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Percentage of Population with Some College but No Degree by Age: Michigan and the U.S., 2010
MichiganUnited States
Age Group
Per
cent
wit
h D
egre
e