understanding the lake breeze and other drivers of ozone in southeast wisconsin kohler andrae state...
DESCRIPTION
Lake Michigan Shoreline: WI’s worst ozone problems 3 Nonattainment for 2008 standard Draft ozone design values: data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPATRANSCRIPT
Understanding the lake breeze and other drivers of ozone in Southeast Wisconsin
Kohler Andrae State Park, Sheboygan, WIhttp://dnr.wi.gov/news/weekly/article/print.asp?id=3177
Angela Dickens, Ph.D. – with Mike Majewski, Bob Lopez & David BizotPolicy AnalystLADCO and Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources
2
Lake Michigan Shoreline: WI’s worst ozone problems
Draft ozone design values:2012-2014
2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA
3
Lake Michigan Shoreline: WI’s worst ozone problems
Nonattainment for 2008 standard
Draft ozone design values:2012-2014
2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA
4
Lake Michigan Shoreline: WI’s worst ozone problems
Nonattainment for 2008 standard
Draft ozone design values:2012-2014
2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA
5
Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin
Chicago
Milwaukee
6
76 ppb
71 ppb
66 ppb
61 ppb
Emissions and ozone are way down, but…LADCO model projections for 2018
From Alex Cohan, LADCO
7
One problem: Models don’t do a good job reproducing the lake breeze• Can’t accurately model ozone along the lakeshore• Needed for attainment demonstrations, etc.
Major needs for Wisconsin:• Understand the lake breeze better• Improve modeling of the lake breeze
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Use of paired lakeshore-inland monitors
DRAFT 2012-14 Design ValuesData have been QA’ed but have not been reviewed by EPA
Operated 20143.25 miles inland
Operated 2013 & 20143.5 miles inland
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Use of paired lakeshore-inland monitors
DRAFT 2012-14 Design ValuesData have been QA’ed but have not been reviewed by EPA
Operated 20143.25 miles inland
Operated 2013 & 20143.5 miles inland
1-hour ozone concentrations
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Wind conditions leading to high ozoneKenosha lakeshore site (2013-14)
11
Wind conditions leading to high ozoneKenosha lakeshore site (2013-14)
12
Inland
Wind conditions leading to high ozoneLakeshore-inland comparison (2014 only)
Lakeshore
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Inland
Wind conditions leading to high ozoneLakeshore-inland comparison (2014 only)
Lakeshore
Different wind directions lead to high ozone
14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
f(x) = 0.875098254980288 x + 2.17821797931918R² = 0.840426197823031
Lakeshore concentration (ppb)
Inla
nd co
ncen
trati
on (p
pb)
Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2013 & 2014 (June-August only)
Kenosha
15
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
f(x) = 0.875098254980288 x + 2.17821797931918R² = 0.840426197823031
Lakeshore concentration (ppb)
Inla
nd co
ncen
trati
on (p
pb)
1:1 line
Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2013 & 2014 (June-August only)
Kenosha
16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
f(x) = 0.875098254980288 x + 2.17821797931918R² = 0.840426197823031
Lakeshore concentration (ppb)
Inla
nd co
ncen
trati
on (p
pb)
1:1 line
Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2013 & 2014 (June-August only)
Kenosha
17
Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2014 (June-August only) Kenosha
60 65 70 75 80 854045505560657075808590
Lakeshore concentration bins (ppb)
Inla
nd co
ncen
trati
ons (
ppb)
Lakeshore exceeds standard
Inland exceeds standard
61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 >80
18
Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2014 (June-August only)
Only one inland 8-hour average exceeded the standard
Kenosha
60 65 70 75 80 854045505560657075808590
Lakeshore concentration bins (ppb)
Inla
nd co
ncen
trati
ons (
ppb)
Lakeshore exceeds standard
Inland exceeds standard
61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 >80
19
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
-10-505
10152025303540
Lakeshore concentration bins (ppb)
Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2014 (June-August only)
Only one inland 8-hour average exceeded the standard
Kenosha
60 65 70 75 80 854045505560657075808590
Inla
nd co
ncen
trati
ons (
ppb)
Lakeshore exceeds standard
Inland exceeds standard
61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 >80
Lake
shor
e-in
land
diff
eren
ce (p
pb)
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
-10-505
10152025303540
Lakeshore concentration bins (ppb)
Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2014 (June-August only)
Only one inland 8-hour average exceeded the standard
7-12 ppb (10-17%)• Larger differences in
Sheboygan (11-17 ppb)
Kenosha
60 65 70 75 80 854045505560657075808590
Inla
nd co
ncen
trati
ons (
ppb)
Lakeshore exceeds standard
Inland exceeds standard
61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 >80
Lake
shor
e-in
land
diff
eren
ce (p
pb)
21
Differences in ozone concentrationsKenosha lakeshore-inland sites (2013 & 2014)(winds shown are for the lakeshore monitor)
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Differences in ozone concentrationsKenosha lakeshore-inland sites (2013 & 2014)(winds shown are for the lakeshore monitor)
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Conclusions:
• Ozone drops off sharply within a few km of the shoreline
• Ozone concentrations and concentration differences are largest with southerly winds• Exact direction varies depending on geography• Very narrow range of wind direction for a site
• Different wind conditions lead to high ozone inland versus on the lakeshore
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Other Efforts:
1) Fine-scale modeling of the Lake Michigan lake breeze• AQAST Re-Analysis Tiger Team project: Brad Pierce & Scott Spak
2) Model validation from the 1994-2003 LADCO Aircraft Project• Theresa Foley, Army Research Laboratory
3) Ground-based and satellite analysis of ozone precursors in WI• Tracey Holloway & students
4) Comparison and origins of ozone trends in WI and Chicago• Ping Jing (Loyola U.) and David Streets
5) New field campaign???
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
50
100
150
200
250
3009/7/1985
hour of day
wind
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Effects of the lake breeze on ozone concentrations
2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
50
100
150
200
250
3009/7/1985
hour of day
wind
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Effects of the lake breeze on ozone concentrations0
22.5
45
67.5
90
112.5
135
157.5180
202.5
225
247.5
270
292.5
315
337.5
0
50
pre/post-lake breeze
Lake breeze
Average of events
2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
50
100
150
200
250
3009/7/1985
hour of day
wind
ozone
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Effects of the lake breeze on ozone concentrations0
22.5
45
67.5
90
112.5
135
157.5180
202.5
225
247.5
270
292.5
315
337.5
0
50
pre/post-lake breeze
Lake breeze
Average of events
2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
50
100
150
200
250
300
hour of day
7/31/1984wind
ozone
180160140120100806040200
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
50
100
150
200
250
3009/7/1985
hour of day
wind
ozone
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Effects of the lake breeze on ozone concentrations
2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220
50
100
150
200
250
300
hour of day
7/31/1984wind
ozone
180160140120100806040200
Effects of the lake breeze on ozone concentrations
022.5
45
67.5
90
112.5
135
157.5180
202.5
225
247.5
270
292.5
315
337.5
0
50
Pre/post lake breeze
Lake breeze2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA